Clock Ticks on US/China Soybean "Deal" - China Inks Deal to Buy More from Brazil

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇨🇳 China Chooses BrazilChina’s state-owned COFCO has signed a $10B deal to purchase 20mmt of Brazilian soybeans, soybean oil, palm oil, and other ag products. The agreement includes contracts with ADM, Bunge, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus.Despite the recent US–China trade truce, Beijing has yet to make major US soybean purchases—and the 13% tariff on US soybeans remains in place. While much of this business likely would’ve happened anyway, it’s a bad look for the U.S. considering the White House’s touted 12mmt purchase floor due by January 1st.🇹🇭 Thailand Boosts U.S. Corn ImportsAs part of its U.S. trade concessions, Thailand will raise its annual feed-corn import quota from 54,700mt to 1mmt — and eliminate the 20% in-quota tariff.Imports will be allowed Feb 1–June 30 to protect domestic producers. Thailand’s total feed demand is projected at 21.8mmt, with about 60% imported, mainly corn, soybean meal, and wheat. The country isn’t a top-10 global importer, but it’s a notable shift in regional demand.🏛️ Shutdown Nears an EndThe Senate passed a temporary funding bill Monday, and the House votes today. The measure would fund most agencies through January, with USDA funded through September 30.All unpaid federal workers will be compensated, and no layoffs are expected through January. Still, it may take weeks for USDA reporting and air travel to normalize.Traders are watching for the return of two key reports:1️⃣ CFTC Commitment of Traders – what are “the funds” doing?2️⃣ USDA Export Sales – has China actually bought anything?🌽 WASDE & Crop Production AheadThe USDA’s November reports drop Friday at 11:00am CST. Markets expect:A downward revision to U.S. corn yield and productionSlight declines for soybeansMarginal increases to U.S. ending stocksBecause of the shutdown, October’s reports were skipped—so this release carries extra weight. 📈 Grain Market RecapFutures were mixed Tuesday—corn and Chicago wheat gained modestly, while soybeans slipped.Traders continue to assess the pace of a government reopening and China’s lack of buying activity despite the trade truce. Beijing seems to have little incentive to meet even short-term U.S. purchase goals.