Confluence of Ideas - The 2020 Election: Part III

In our “2020 Geopolitical Outlook,” we named the 2020 U.S. election as a key event. Our recent five-part Weekly Geopolitical Report series examined this issue in more detail. This is the final episode looking at the 2020 election. In this episode, we handicap the election based on the tools of prediction, polling and decision markets. We examine the geopolitics of the election, focusing on what countries are likely to intervene in our election, their capabilities and their goals. We also touch on what we expect to see in terms of policy if we get a new president or if the incumbent wins, and likely market reaction in either scenario.