Core Inflation Is Sticky But Consumers Are Still Spending

In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest CPI and PCE data to understand why core inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's target even as headline CPI ticks down. They examine the divergence between goods and services inflation, the role of housing costs, and what the break-even inflation rate signals about market expectations. With the Fed holding rates steady at 3.63%, they discuss whether the economy can sustain consumer spending without a rebound in wage growth. The conversation also touches on how the World Cup temporarily boosted bars and restaurants, but broader retail data shows households are becoming more cautious. Luna challenges Lucas on whether the Fed's framework is too backward-looking, and they weigh the odds of a September cut. For listeners who find value in the show, a quick note about supporting the podcast through Buy Me a Coffee keeps it ad-free and independent. #CoreInflation #CPI #PCE #FederalReserve #StickyInflation #ConsumerSpending #HousingCosts #BreakevenInflation #FedPolicy #RateCuts #InflationOutlook #ServicesInflation #GoodsInflation #WageGrowth #WorldCupEffect #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo