Corn RALLIES to 4-Month High, USDA to Cut Production Estimate

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Corn Futures Rally Ahead of Key USDA ReportsCorn futures pushed higher on Thursday, with the Dec25 contract closing near $4.42, the best level in nearly five months. Traders are bracing for a sharp cut to national corn yield and production, with estimates ranging from 181.7 to 186 bpa — a wide spread tied to the 43-day government shutdown that limited USDA data flow. USDA will also publish all flash sales that occurred during the shutdown.📝 USDA Crop Production & WASDE Today (11am CST)Analysts expect a substantial downward revision to national corn yield and overall production. Even with reductions, the crop is still projected to be record large.• Soybean yield & production expected to see modest declines• US ending stocks for corn, soybeans & wheat expected to see slight increases• Minimal changes expected for global ending stocks• October reports were skipped due to the shutdown🚢 US Export Sales Return After ShutdownFor the week ending Sept 25:• Corn: 1.4 mmt—down from last week; Mexico top buyer• Soybeans: 870,500 mt—up 20%; Netherlands top buyer• Wheat: 315,900 mt—near low end of expectations; Nigeria top buyer⛽ US Ethanol Output Falls; Margins Still StrongWeekly ethanol production slipped to 1.08 mil bpd (-4.3% w/w). Stocks fell to 22.22 mil barrels. Compared to last year:• Output: -2.7%• Stocks: +1%Margins remain solid, ranging from +10 to +30 cents across the Corn Belt based on Reuters’ spot prices for corn, DDGs, inputs, etc.🇧🇷 Conab: Minor Changes to Brazil Corn & Soybean OutlookSoybeans:• Production: 177.6 mmt (record; +3.6% vs last year)• Exports: 112.1 mmt (+5.1% y/y), reflecting expectations of sluggish US exportsCorn:• Production: 138.8 mmt (-1.6% y/y)• Exports: 46.5 mmt (+16% y/y)🌧️ US Drought Monitor UpdateRainfall was mixed across the Corn Belt last week.• Improving: NE Illinois, NW Indiana• Worsening: East-central Illinois, SW Wisconsin• High Plains: Mostly steady; slight deterioration in eastern Nebraska & parts of OklahomaUS Areas in Drought:🌽 Corn—29%🫘 Soybeans—31%🌾 Winter Wheat — 39%🌾 Spring Wheat—17%🐄 Cattle — 28%