CoT Analysis: Bullish for $30 or so, then we see...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit vblgoldfix.substack.comHousekeeping: No Morning Rundown next week as am working on overdue pieces for a book. There will be posts emailed of relevant research highlights.1. Market Behavior Over the Analyzed Period* Review of eight days of trading activity, including five down days followed by three recovery days.* Emphasis on unchanged open interest despite higher prices, suggesting speculative money has not yet entered in size.2. Short Covering and Bear Flag Patterns* Breakdown of daily candle patterns showing short covering rallies, profit-taking, and eventual capitulation.* Identification of a classic bear flag structure with weak longs exiting and shorts re-entering.3. Futures and Options Positioning* Analysis of futures flows: managed money and weak hands selling into bullion bank short covering.* Options activity: swap dealers buying calls, other reportables hedging with futures and options, and implications for positioning strength.4. Open Interest Baseline and Trading Range* Long-term chart review showing open interest bottoming at consistent levels, signaling market cycles.* Establishment of a new trading range for open interest, with bullish implications until the upper bound is reached.* Discussion of producer selling at higher levels versus central bank/China buying at lower levels.5. Conclusions and Tactical Outlook* Near-term bullish bias of roughly $30 upside, but tempered by recognition of producer selling and seasonal “sell season.”* Stress on monitoring open interest as more reliable than price for directional cues.* Final trading framework: bullish above ~3356, cautious near ~3395, with risk/reward managed through partial profit-taking.