Countdown to the Commodities Crunch

Energy Flux founder Seb Kennedy is joined by pod partner Victor Ponsford to discuss stalled US-Iran diplomacy, the implications of differing Hormuz reopening scenarios, natural gas price volatility, energy market manipulation, and the outlook for next winter and beyond.Seb talks through his latest Deep Dive into volatility, why hedge funds seem unable to extend their record net long bullish position in TTF futures, and how this could be keeping a lid on gas prices despite the bullish setup.The discussion focusses on near-term risks to European energy security, and ends with a look further ahead at the potential for a shift from crisis to abundance later this decade.Chapters00:00 Intro & Hormuz scenario survey results12:50 Iran, JCPOA & demand destruction16:35 EU gas prices, VaR & hedge funds26:13 Market manipulation & EU gas storage34:25 Famine to feast: gas market narrative whipsawLinksHormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact ModelThe Hidden Ceiling: Why TTF Can't Break €50/MWh