The Energy Flux podcast

Energy Flux founder Seb Kennedy is joined by pod partner Victor Ponsford to discuss stalled US-Iran diplomacy, the implications of differing Hormuz reopening scenarios, natural gas price volatility, energy market manipulation, and the outlook for next winter and beyond.Seb talks through his latest Deep Dive into volatility, why hedge funds seem unable to extend their record net long bullish position in TTF futures, and how this could be keeping a lid on gas prices despite the bullish setup.The discussion focusses on near-term risks to European energy security, and ends with a look further ahead at the potential for a shift from crisis to abundance later this decade.Chapters00:00 Intro & Hormuz scenario survey results12:50 Iran, JCPOA & demand destruction16:35 EU gas prices, VaR & hedge funds26:13 Market manipulation & EU gas storage34:25 Famine to feast: gas market narrative whipsawLinksHormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact ModelThe Hidden Ceiling: Why TTF Can't Break €50/MWh

Energy Flux founder Seb Kennedy is joined by pod partner Victor Ponsford to discuss the latest diplomatic developments in the US-Iran war, ongoing tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, and impacts on energy markets.They explore modelling scenarios from the Energy Flux Hormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact Model, which quantifies whether and when the new wave of global LNG projects might offset lost Qatari and UAE capacity that's stuck behind the Hormuz chokepoint.The discussion concludes with breaking news about Donald Trump's last-minute 'TACO' extension of the ceasefire, and the likelihood of a continued stalemate in this unenviable geopolitical situation.TakeawaysOngoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz impact energy marketsModeling scenarios provide insights into future LNG supplyListeners can vote on the most likely Hormuz outcomeDiplomatic stalemate leads to continued uncertaintyChapters00:00 Introduction and Catching Up with Mad Markets05:29 Configuring the Hormuz Model and Scenarios17:10 Deep Uncertainty and Market Failure36:33 Three Scenarios for the Future - Vote for your favourite44:00 Breaking News and Continued StalemateLinksHormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact ModelDeep Dive explaining model scenariosHormuz model YouTube tutorialListener poll: vote for your favourite scenario (or describe your own)

This emergency episode of the Energy Flux podcast discusses US President Donald Trump's decision to postpone his threat to destroy Iran's electricity system.Host Seb Kennedy takes stock of the outlook for the Middle East energy way. He weighs up the implications of a diplomatic solution versus regime change in Iran on future Middle Eastern energy supply.He explores the challenges faced in either scenario by Qatar's LNG industry, and for Asian LNG buyers who are bearing the brunt of the deepening global energy supply shock.Chapters00:00 - Decoding the significance of the latest 'TACO'03:00 - Regime change and future Middle East energy exports08:28 - The inevitability of irreversible gas demand destruction13:14 - Iran ground invasion: unwinnable war?22:12 - Unenviable choices: global economy and deepening supply deficitSign up for the free newsletter: www.EnergyFlux.news

This emergency episode of the Energy Flux podcast discusses the Israeli attack on Iran's South Pars natural gas field and retaliatory attacks on Qatar's LNG facilities.Energy Flux founding editor Seb Kennedy is joined by Victor Ponsford, strategic energy communications consultant, to assess the wide-ranging impacts of these unprecedented events on global gas supply and energy stability.They explore the market response, shipping and transit costs, deep geopolitical uncertainty, historical context, and the potential for broader escalation beyond the Middle East region. The conversation delves into the discrepancy between physical reality on the ground vs. cautious market pricing, and the inadequacy of conventional geopolitical analysis in the face of irrational actors on the global stage.Chapters00:00 Update on Middle East Energy War07:31 Initial Market Response14:17 Physical Reality vs. Market Pricing27:05 Regional Instability and Broader EscalationSign up for the free newsletter: www.EnergyFlux.news

In this episode, Energy Flux founder Seb Kennedy is joined by special guest Victor Ponsford, an independent energy strategic communications consultant, to discuss wide-ranging impacts of US/Israeli war in Iran on global LNG and gas markets.The conversation delves into the likely duration of the Hormuz closure, and why political and military factors are conspiring to keep this strategic maritime chokepoint closed for months rather than weeks.They discuss how physical and financial market players in the European gas market are positioning to manage risk and capitalise on the repercussions of prolonged loss of 20% of global LNG supply.And they explore the yawning gap between political rhetoric and physical reality on the ground in the Persian Gulf.Article referenced:US LNG war profits, quantified (Energy Flux)Hormuz closure triggers record TTF liquidation (Energy Flux)Chapters00:00 Welcome to the Podcast and Guest Introduction02:30 Hormuz Crisis Duration, and the Pain Factor in Diplomacy05:31 US LNG Windfall Profits: Winners & Losers from Iran War11:00 Impact on US Consumers and America's Domestic Gas Market18:25 Diverse Uses of LNG Across Emerging Markets24:19 Politics and Market Perception of Hormuz Closure32:26 Impact of Unforeseen Outages and Future Market ConditionsSign up to the free Energy Flux newsletter (link)

In this episode of the Energy Flux podcast, host Seb Kennedy explores the evolving landscape of energy markets, focusing on the implications of gas pricing on the energy transition.He discusses the potential for cheaper gas to impact investments in renewable energy technologies and the mindset shifts among policymakers as energy crises recede.The monologue also delves into the future of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and the volatility of energy markets, emphasising the need for strategic planning in the face of potential shortages in the coming years.🎦 Watch video version: Energy Flux YouTube pageTakeawaysThe energy crisis is shifting towards a more stable pricing environment.Cheaper gas may hinder the urgency of the energy transition.Policymakers may deprioritise energy security as crises fade.Abundance in energy can lead to complacency in innovation.The LNG market faces uncertainty with potential project cancellations.Investment in LNG infrastructure is becoming less attractive.Gas volatility underscores the need for strategic energy planning.The LNG industry itself is warning of a supply crunch in the early 2030s.Future energy policies must consider the potential for sudden market swings.Chapters00:00 Talking Gas Outside the Kings Cross Gasometer Buildings03:06 The Impact of Cheap Gas on Energy Transition04:37 Policy Challenges and Mindset Shifts08:17 The Future of LNG Projects and Market Dynamics14:34 The Paradox of Energy Abundance and ComplacencyFor more info and to subscribe, head to www.EnergyFlux.news

In this episode, ⁠Energy Flux ⁠founding editor Seb Kennedy discusses the latest developments in energy diplomacy. Chief among these is the European Union's recent decision to ban Russian LNG; the implications for EU aspirations of energy independence; and the trade-offs of relying on allies like the US and Qatar, which are using the EU's own sustainability regulations as a tool of diplomatic coercion. He also covers the US sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil, and the complexities of enforcing these measures. Seb connects the dots to uncover a troubling picture of geopolitical dysfunction, where decisive actions are undercut by empty threats and a glaring lack of enforcement.Are we witnessing a coherent strategy, or just a series of volatile half-measures that create the illusion of power? Key Topics Discussed:The EU's Accelerated LNG Ban: Why the 2027 deadline is a bigger deal than it seems, and the logistical headaches it creates for Central Europe.The Dependency Pivot: How swapping Russian gas for US LNG creates a new set of vulnerabilities.Empty Threats: Deconstructing why the US and Qatar's warnings over EU sustainability rules are a bluff that collapses under scrutiny.Sanctions & Enforcement: Analysing the new US sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, and why their success hinges on an enforcement track record that's far from perfect.To find out more about Energy Flux and to sign up for free updates, head to ⁠www.EnergyFlux.news⁠.

In today's episode, Energy Flux founding editor Seb Kennedy runs through the paper he presented at the recent Gastech 2025 conference in Milan.The title of the paper is Mapping the Storage-Speculation Nexus: Hedge fund positioning and the TTF forward curve.The paper explores a novel methodology for identifying investment fund trading strategies on Dutch TTF, the benchmark European natural gas futures price.Seb explains the methodology in full, and what it tells us about last year's TTF bull run and subsequent dramatic correction in February and April this year.He concludes by suggesting policy reforms that could be explored to mitigate some of the speculation-driven price volatility that has characterised TTF in recent times.The full slide deck can be downloaded at www.EnergyFlux.news, where you can sign up for the Energy Flux newsletter -- where all this research was originally published in 2024 and early 2025.

Energy Flux founding editor Seb Kennedy tours the Gastech exhibition while reflecting on the main themes from the four-day conference.👉For more analysis, subscribe to the newsletter at www.EnergyFlux.news SummaryIn this episode of the Energy Flux podcast, host Seb Kennedy reflects on the Gastech 2025 event, discussing the rising US presence in the LNG market, the economic realities of pricing, and the political implications of US LNG exports.He explores the future of US natural gas production and shares insights from his experiences at the event, emphasizing the complexities and challenges facing the energy sector.Key topics & takeawaysGastech was a momentous event at a significant historical junctureThe disconnect between public statements from industry leaders and market realities is wideningOver-investment in LNG capacity is reshaping the global glut depth & duration outlookTransatlantic margins will face significant compression (as detailed in last week’s Hot Take)North-West Europe-TTF price dislocation as lead indicator for distressed LNG cargo pricingHow merit order economics and cost inflation affect LNG investment attractivenessThe history of LNG, and the difference between conventional integrated export projects vs US LNG second waveThe political & economic implications of gas/electricity price inflation in the domestic US marketCan US shale production growth keep up with competition for upstream gas resources (LNG vs data centres)? Read more & subscribe at 👉 www.EnergyFlux.news 👈

The Trump–Putin summit in Alaska is set to be a geopolitical circus — and in this episode of the Energy Flux podcast, I unpack what’s at stake, who stands to gain, and why parts of Europe should be paying close attention.I cover:* Why some in Moscow might be eyeing Alaska’s mineral wealth* How a land swap or ceasefire could reshape Ukraine’s future* The sanctions relief carrot Trump might dangle — and why I’m sceptical* The Armenia–Azerbaijan peace deal and the Zangezur corridor gambit* What all this could mean for LNG markets already swimming in supplyThere’s also a quick update at the end on what I’ve been building at Energy Flux: new data tools, a members-only discussion forum, and an AI-powered daily briefing for premium subscribers.Thanks for listening,— SebTo hear more, visit www.EnergyFlux.news

The day after the European Commission proposed an outright ban on Russian gas in the EU, a Swiss court threw a lifeline to Nord Stream 2.The ruling opens the door to a potential revival of the defunct Russia-Germany gas pipeline that was half destroyed in a dramatic subsea explosion in 2022.How should we square the circle of an EU ban on Russian gas with a possible revival of Nord Stream 2? How does the restructuring ruling affect the ownership of this contentious piece of infrastructure? Would any buyer really be interested in owning it?This episode unpacks the legal ruling and weighs up the options in light of the EU’s push to outlaw Russian gas entirely, which I covered in last week’s Chart Deck.I also discuss the historical purpose of Nord Stream 2, the role it played before and during the 2021-22 energy crisis, and how Gazprom’s actions have galvanised a European political consensus against a resumption of Russian gas dependency.Thanks for listening,— SebTo hear more, visit www.EnergyFlux.news

The US-China trade war has rewritten the macroeconomic outlook for 2025, and with it the global demand picture for liquefied natural gas (LNG).Swingeing import tariffs could be lifted just as quickly as they were introduced. However, even a swift resolution at this stage would be unlikely to purge the bearish sentiment now dominating the European natural gas market.This episode catches up on the many market-moving events of recent weeks, with a focus on disruption to energy trade, relaxation of the EU’s gas storage targets, and bearish factors weighing on the summer gas demand outlook.In the reader Q&A, I fielded questions relating to my recent take on the shift to a new lower pricing regime, and the risks posed by a cratering price environment to customers buying US LNG.I also share my thoughts on The New Joule Order, a thought-provoking essay from esteemed energy commodities analyst Jeff Currie.Thanks for listening,— SebP.S. Don’t forget to share your questions, thoughts and reactions for inclusion in the next episode. I prioritise input from paid subscribers 😉To hear more, visit www.EnergyFlux.news

Energy markets are digesting last night’s breaking news that Russia has agreed to a 30-day temporary ceasefire in Ukraine.The ceasefire is limited to energy infrastructure only, meaning Russian forces can continue their military advancements into Ukrainian territory.I recorded this emergency episode of the podcast late last night to share some initial thoughts about what this ‘ceasefire’ means for energy markets, and the wider prospects of a lasting peace settlement.Shortly after uploading the podcast, I read on X that Russian forces broke the agreement barely 30 minutes after signing it by bombing power infrastructure in Sloviansk… 🤦‍♂️As it happens, I have a Deep Dive in the works that will explore Russia’s targeted campaign of destruction against Ukrainian natural gas infrastructure since the New Year.That piece will be published very soon — be sure to subscribe at www.EnergyFlux.news to get it delivered straight to your inbox.Thanks for listening.— SebP.S. Don’t forget to share your questions, thoughts and reactions to this and other energy-related news headlines for inclusion in the next episode. I prioritise input from paid subscribers 😉To hear more, visit www.EnergyFlux.news

This week’s episode of the Energy Flux podcast is all about the resurgence of geopolitics, rather than regulation, as the primary driving force behind EU natural gas markets.Don’t get me wrong, regulatory risk has not evaporated — far from it.After the apparent relaxation of the EU’s gas storage refilling targets, there’s lingering uncertainty around how existing regulations are being interpreted.But the regulatory standoff generated by the European Commission’s confusing recommendation is unlikely to be resolved quickly.In the meantime, the intense geopolitical newsflow emanating from Ukraine and latest round of ceasefire talks in Saudi Arabia is a bottomless source of market uncertainty.This was always going to be the case, and I was planning to discuss it all at length in the podcast.But an influx of reader questions on these topics in recent days confirms to my mind that warp speed geopolitical upheaval is the top issue of concern for market players and observers alike.The Energy Flux posts referenced in the pod are as follows:* Burning the house down* The bear roars* The ‘wild card’ for TTF in 2025* Sizing up the LNG glut — parts one and twoHappy listening :)— SebP.S. Apologies if audio quality is not perfect, I’m still finding my feet with recording equipment and software.To hear more, visit www.EnergyFlux.news

Welcome back to the Energy Flux podcast, which delves into the world of European natural gas and global LNG markets.The big story of the week was the wild rollercoaster on Dutch TTF, the European benchmark. I dig into what caused the epic price swings, drawing on my analysis from Thursday’s subscriber-only Chart Deck.In response to a reader question, I also discussed the correlation between TTF and Henry Hub — the benchmark for natural gas in North America — and how this is evolving with the unstoppable rise of US LNG.Don’t forget to send me your questions, comments and observations for the next episode. I read everything, and love hearing from listeners. Just hit reply to any email, or send me a direct message via Flux Exchange.Remember, you can also listen to the podcast on your favourite platform:* Apple* Spotify* YouTube* Or just search for Energy Flux wherever you get your podcastsHappy listening!— SebTo hear more, visit www.EnergyFlux.news

Welcome back to the Energy Flux podcast, which delves into the world of European natural gas and global LNG markets.The main story featured in this week’s show is:* Italy calls for EU investigation into speculation on TTF inflating gas prices (Montel News, QualEnergia)In response to reader questions, I discussed:* The EU Commission’s draft plan to consider US LNG equity investments to ward off Trump trade war (Politico)* The impact of Trump’s incoming 25% steel tariff on US LNG projects* Outlook for prices during the LNG ‘glut’ and potential for demand response from Asian buyers* The excess LNG problem: Japan’s LNG buyers are over-contracted (IEEFA)I also referenced the following Energy Flux articles:* Gas, carbon and the geopolitical web (link)* Sizing up the LNG glut (part one and two)Happy listening!— SebP.S. If you want to ask a question or make a comment for the next episode, send me a message. I prioritise Q&A requests from paying subscribers 😇To hear more, visit www.EnergyFlux.news

This episode marks the relaunch of the Energy Flux podcast, by me, Energy Flux founding editor Seb Kennedy.After the overwhelmingly positive response to my recent run of podcast appearances, I realised there is huge appetite for audio format news and commentary.As I explain in this introductory episode, the concept is simple: chat through the most interesting headlines and market events of the week, and respond to any questions and observations mailed in from readers.This won’t be a super-slick polished production, but rather a discreet space for people to tune in and engage with Energy Flux in audio form.I’m still figuring out the schedule, length and frequency, but didn’t want to let small details stand in the way of actually getting started. So here goes!If you have any burning questions you would like me to tackle in the next episode, just hit reply to this email or message me via Flux Exchange, the Energy Flux forum.Thanks for listening,— SebTo hear more, visit www.EnergyFlux.news