Crop Progress + BIRD FLU Scare

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyGoogleTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.USDA released its first Crop Progress report of the year on Monday. US corn planting was 2% complete through Sunday. Progress was noted in only Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, and Texas. USDA did not release a soybean planting statistic. The US winter wheat crop was rated 56% good-excellent, up from late November national ratings of 50% good-excellent. This was the strongest seasonal rating since 2019. A person in Texas has been diagnosed with the bird flu. The infected individual worked at a dairy farm where some cows tested positive for the H5N1 strain of bird flu last week. It's unknown if the person contracted the disease from dead birds on the farm or from a dairy cow. Even though officials insisted that food supplies were safe, live and feeder cattle futures plunged on Monday. Feeder cattle futures were down as much as $7.50/cwt, while live cattle futures saw losses reach $6.10/cwt. This is the second case of bird flu in an individual in the US. It's believed that there is little risk to the general public. Export prices for Russian wheat continue to rise. Export prices increased for the third consecutive week last week. The rise was attributed to dryer than normal conditions for this season's wheat crop. According to Sovecon, Russia exported 840,000mt of wheat last week, down 26% from the previous week. The consultancy lowered its estimate for wheat exports in March by 2% to 4.9mmt, which is still a record for the month.Brazil's soybean harvest continues to progress. According to well-followed private group AgRural, 74% of Brazil's soybean crop had been harvested as of last Thursday. At this time last year, 76% of the crop had been harvested. Recent rainfall has slowed harvest and also impacted grain quality in some regions. AgRural also reported that hot and dry conditions in some areas are causing concern for Brazil's second corn crop.US corn shipments increased last week. USDA reported that corn shipments during the week ending March 28 surpassed pre-report estimates at 1.4mmt (56mil bushels). The print was up 14% from the previous week and up 30% compared to the same week last year. Soybean shipments fell below pre-report estimates at 414,484mt (15mil bushels). The print declined 47% vs. the prior week and was down 18% compared to the same week last year. Wheat shipments exceeded pre-report estimates at 498,989mt (18mil bushels). The print was +15% from the previous week and +196% vs. the same week last year.WTI crude oil traded to fresh 5-month highs on Monday. Reports of an Israeli missile strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, were partly responsible for the price surge. WTI rose 0.7% to close at $83.71 per barrel, its highest close since October. The reduction in oil production by OPEC+, at least until the second quarter, has supported prices. In the next few months, Mexico's state-run oil company plans to halt some crude exports, which could further tighten global supply. Expectations of strong global demand have also contributed to higher oil prices. Year-to-date, WTI is up almost 18%.