December 5, 2023 | Driving It Home with ABoR's Housing Economist

In this episode of Driving at Home, Dr. Clare Losey and Danielle Hammett discuss economic indicators relevant to the housing market. They focus on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, a measure of inflation, and labor market statistics in Austin. Dr. Losey shares that the PCE Index, which excludes food and energy prices, showed a year-over-year increase of 3.5% and a month-over-month rise of 0.2%, aligning with consensus expectations. This trend indicates that the Federal Reserve might conclude its rate hikes and possibly reduce rates in 2024. The conversation shifted to the Federal Reserve's upcoming meetings and the impact of their decisions on mortgage rates. Dr. Losey notes a decrease in the ten-year treasury yield to about 4.3%, which has led to a slight deflation in mortgage rates. She suggests that if the Federal Reserve decides not to hike rates in December and if rates are cut in 2024, mortgage rates should continue to decline. This is promising news for real estate agents, buyers, and sellers, as it indicates a potential increase in market activity. Lastly, they discuss local job numbers, highlighting that employment growth in the Austin area is slowing but remains strong, with unemployment at historic lows. Wage growth is decelerating due to various factors, including a decline in tech wages. They also compare housing market activity before and after Thanksgiving, noting a decrease in closed and pending sales but an increase in new listings. Dr. Losey explains that the housing market typically slows down towards the year's end due to seasonal trends but will likely pick up again afterward.  *Links mentioned in this episode:* Driving It Home is now an official podcast, and you can now tune in via ALL major podcasting platforms! YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@AustinBoardofREALTORS/podcasts Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/driving-it-home-with-abors-housing-economist/id1714289732 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6tho6pfh24XSHozFFKEIpX *Don't forget* to access your *FREE* Austin Business Journal subscription! Tap into this benefit exclusive for ABoR members and use it as a resource for lead generation and market insights. Download the Audio Transcript + Episode Summary: https://www.abor.com/content/uploads/2023/11/DIH-11-28-23.pdf Connect with us on socials: https://www.abor.com/socials Connect with Dr. Clare Losey on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clare-losey Have feedback? Email us at [email protected].