第2856期:The economics of Christmas

It's the peak shopping time of the year, We're looking at the economics of Christmas. Yes, Christmas is typically the largest economic stimulus for many nations around the world, as sales increase dramatically in almost all retail areas. Now the United States, for example, their retail industry generates over three trillion US dollars during the holidays.这是全年消费最旺的时期，我们来看一下圣诞节的经济学。是的，圣诞节通常是全球许多国家最大的经济刺激来源，因为几乎所有零售领域的销售都会大幅增长。以美国为例，他们的零售行业在假日期间能产生超过三万亿美元的收入。Yes, the average amount an American will spend just on Christmas gifts is 900 US dollars. Now that's about £670, Richard, and I have to say that the average amount a Brit will spend is about half that. Still a lot though.是的，美国人仅在圣诞礼物上的平均花费就达到900美元。那大约是670英镑，Richard，而英国人在这方面的平均花费大约只有美国人的一半。不过，这仍然算是相当多了。Yeah, but although spending for this time of the year is expected to increase... As every year. Every year. And you know, Richard, this is despite any economic downturn or austerity, it's the online Christmas shopping which is rising, isn't it? Yes, sales in physical shops, I think, is expected to decline slightly by approximately 2.8% this year in the UK.是的，但尽管如此，这个时期的支出仍预计会增加……就像每一年一样。每一年都是如此。而且你知道的，Richard，即使有经济下滑或紧缩，圣诞节的线上购物仍然在增长，不是吗？是的，我想英国实体商店的销售预计今年将略微下降，大约下降2.8%。And there are other winners and losers too at this time of the year. Yes, well, most retailers, they have their highest sales in the fourth quarter from October through to December. And of these, some retailers see 30% to 40% spikes in sales at this time.而且在这一时期，还有其他的赢家和输家。是的，大多数零售商在第四季度（从十月到十二月）会达到全年最高销量。其中有些零售商在此期间的销售会飙升30%到40%。That's amazing. So what kind of shops are we talking about that benefit from the Christmas shopping spree? Well, obviously, the big thing is electronics, appliances, home appliances, clothing, sporting goods, and online retail. People are buying for Christmas.太惊人了。那么我们说的是哪些商家会从圣诞购物潮中获益？嗯，显而易见的是电子产品、电器、家用电器、服装、运动用品和线上零售。这些都是人们为了圣诞节而大量购买的。Yeah, OK. So computers are one of the most popular items that people buy. I think online games, consoles and things like that, they're very popular, aren't they? Yes.是的，好的。所以电脑是人们购买最热门的商品之一。我想线上游戏、游戏机之类的东西也非常受欢迎，对吧？是的。But there are losers, Richard, and that includes the motor industry. Not many people buy a car for Christmas, do they? Furniture goes down, petrol stations. Yes.但也有一些输家，Richard，其中包括汽车行业。不是很多人会在圣诞节买车，对吧？家具销售下降，加油站也是。是的。In the northern hemisphere, in the winter, building materials, people aren't really building much outside, are they? And perhaps not surprising, Richard, they're not doing much gardening, and gardening centres, their sales fall as well. And also, talk about the bad weather, it's no surprise that there's a huge decline in people going to restaurants during the holiday season. Yes, obviously, it's a time for family, isn't it? So most people are eating indoors at home.在北半球的冬天，建筑材料的销量也会下降，因为人们并不会在这个季节进行太多户外施工。而且不意外的是，Richard，人们也不会做太多园艺活动，因此园艺中心的销售也会下降。此外，说到恶劣天气，节日期间去餐厅的人数大幅减少也不奇怪。是的，很明显，这是一个家的季节，不是吗？所以大多数人都在家里吃饭。Well, we talked about this quarter being so well for many in the retail sector, but there are specific days which are even better, aren't they? Oh, yes. In the US especially, obviously, Black Friday is huge. Yeah, that's typically the busiest shopping day of the year.我们刚才提到这个季度对许多零售商来说表现非常好，但其实还有一些特定的日子业绩会更好，对吧？哦，是的。尤其是在美国，黑色星期五特别重要。是的，那通常是一年中最忙的一天购物日。And it's getting more popular in the UK as well, but not as big as America. We're much lazier in the UK. Certainly are.黑五在英国也越来越流行，但还是没有美国那么疯狂。我们英国人懒得多。确实如此。I think the biggest shopping day in the UK is the 23rd of December. We leave everything to the last minute. Very last minute, yes.我觉得英国最大的购物日是12月23日。我们总是把所有事情留到最后一刻。真的非常最后一刻，是的。And also, the Saturday before Christmas is very popular, and this year, the 23rd is a Saturday, so it's going to be hell on the high street. Yes, never mind Black Friday, that's going to be Super Saturday. Well, it may be Super Saturday for the retailers, Richard, but let's make sure we've got ours done before then.而且圣诞节前的那个星期六也非常热门，而今年23号刚好是星期六，所以商业街一定会爆满。是的，别提黑色星期五了，那将会是超级星期六。不过，Richard，那对零售商来说也许是超级星期六，但我们最好在那之前把我们的购物都搞定。