Did You Hear the Pork Market Crash?

BEEF Last week imports of live cattle from Mexico resumed from one port of entry in Arizona. That was “paused” on Tuesday this week for equipment malfunctions.  Everyone involved emphasized this is not an animal issue but an equipment issue. They expect to reopen in three days. A second crossing is scheduled to open in New Mexico in three weeks. We are heading to Labor Day weekend. I’ve been saying for weeks we need to get past Labor Day, and this market will see a good market correction lower. I do think we are on schedule to see that happen. Live cattle prices are moving lower; production continues to be tight, 542K head harvested last week, up from 523K the week prior. With next week being a holiday shortened week this slight uptick will hopefully keep sufficient inventory in the pipeline. We will see declines in rounds and chucks; middle meats seem to be holding out for another week or so, but I do expect them to come off current highs as well. Demand for ground beef continues to keep pricing up; we may see relief on ground beef in the next few weeks but right now, not in the cards. I’d stay ahead of my needs, but know better pricing is on the way. POULTRY We’ve been seeing a gradual slowdown in chicken production over the last few weeks and that trend is continuing. From running a solid 2% over last year to now we are running almost even. I expect we will see this continue; I don’t expect to reduce further but I do think we’ll see this market tighten a bit. For next week coming out of a holiday weekend, boneless skinless randoms and tenders are holding steady another week while wings are down a few pennies. Looking at Avian flu, three new cases affecting 74K turkeys. GRAINS We’ve been in this bear market for grains it seems like years, but things are getting interesting. Corn closed at $5.40/bushel up from last week’s $5.31 close. This year’s crop estimation is down 4% from last year at 178.7 bushels per acre at 15.8 billion bushels, while soybeans are up to $12.58/bushel and a 2026 crop estimated 7% below last year, 4.5 billion bushels. With demand for biofuels pushing all this higher and international unrest, I do think we’ll see these grain markets continue higher. Wheat is in the same condition with Black Sea exports slowed by shipping terminals being damaged in fighting. I do think this trend will continue. PORK Did everyone hear that crash today? Today’s pork market close has bellies down $32.13 closing at $121.85. Last week’s close was $148.48. This should continue, though my target for this market was $120. I may have to modify that lower, we’ll see. The ribs and loins are holding steady. Butts are seeing strong demand but not much price movement. DAIRY A fairly quiet week on the CME. Through Thursday’s close all categories were down a bit; barrel down 3, block is down 3 as well, while butter is down 4. I don’t see much to push this market higher. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn