Do Home Prices Need to Fall to Fix Affordability?

Welcome back to The Shivers Report.Housing affordability is one of the biggest debates in America right now. But here’s the uncomfortable truth: whether you think prices should drop often depends on whether you already own a home.In this episode, Nick and Keegan Shivers tackle the real question—do home values actually need to fall to make housing affordable again? Or is there a smarter solution?We talk about:• Why homeowners don’t want prices to drop—but renters often do• How lowering interest rates impacts monthly payments more than headline prices• Why 50-year mortgages may improve payments—but hurt long-term wealth• The historical reality: since 1990, only 2007–2011 saw sustained depreciation• Why waiting for prices to “crash” has rarely been a winning strategy• The difference between U.S. home prices (~$375K average) and Canada (~$700K+)• Why 100% homeownership isn’t realistic—or even desirable• How peak U.S. homeownership hit 69% in 2021 and now sits around 65%• Why artificially slashing interest rates could re-inflate the market• The real long-term solution: deregulation and more constructionNick argues that instead of manipulating rates, policymakers should focus on supply. On the West Coast, bureaucracy, permits, and red tape can account for up to 28% of construction costs—potentially adding over $100,000 to the price of a home. Remove that, and affordability improves without crashing values.Bottom line: affordability isn’t just about prices going down. It’s about supply going up.