Don’t Call It a Comeback: Google Ships AI (e2549)

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, Mike, Jason, and Hunt break down the big moving pieces across energy, technology, and healthcare—anchored by the latest Cash Flow Memo and the three macro exhibits. The centerpiece: Alphabet’s “comeback,” what really changed inside Google, and where AI may go next.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo[00:20] Disclaimer[00:31] Exhibit C: Oil and geopoliticsHunt frames oil’s near-term setup through the lens of Russia/Ukraine developments and what that could mean for crude pricing.[00:46] Exhibit B: Natural Gas—weather boost, but supply riskNatural gas catches a bid with supportive weather, but Hunt flags higher dry gas production and questions around LNG economics and potential oversupply.[02:34] Exhibit A: US government finances + debt trajectoryA deficit-and-debt reality check, including the politics around extending subsidies and the broader challenge of stabilizing debt as a share of GDP.[06:27] WSJ watch: extraditions and the Mexico angleMike flags a Wall Street Journal piece on extradited Mexican drug lords and why it stood out for him.[06:59] Don’t call it a comeback: Alphabet/Google and AIThe group unpacks why Google “came back” in AI: not sudden discovery, but finally shipping—plus the internal tension of protecting the search cash machine while deploying chat-first products.[17:51] Memo Page 1: Alphabet vs mega-cap peers + antitrust contextHunt highlights just how massive Alphabet’s revenue/cash flow footprint is relative to Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft—and how AI shifts the framing around search and “monopoly” narratives.[21:17] Healthcare news: switching gearsAfter tech dominates the first half, the team pivots to healthcare catalysts and policy considerations.[21:28] Vertex: Morgan Stanley upgrade and kidney disease opportunityJason summarizes the upgrade thesis and how risk-adjusted revenue expectations could build meaningfully into the 2030s.[22:00] Harrow: Vevye becomes Tier 1 on CVS formularyA tangible commercial catalyst: Tier 1 status can shift volume, lower copays, and potentially improve realized pricing dynamics.[22:55] 340B program changes: incentives, spreads, and reform attemptsJason explains how 340B evolved from safety-net intent into a profit engine for many hospitals—and what pending changes may do (and not do) to fix the system.[24:52] ACA tax credit deal: extend now, reform nextA practical debate: don’t create a coverage cliff, but use the urgency to push transparency, catastrophic-coverage thinking, and patient incentives.[28:58] Next week previewA tease for what’s coming—potentially a focused segment on key risks facing NVIDIA, with more healthcare deep-dives promised soon.Thanks for listening—download the Cash Flow Memo to follow along with the numbers, and subscribe so you don’t miss next week’s breakdown.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com