Telltales

▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down →Microsoft Is Funding the Next AI Layer With the Last OneEnterprise AI stopped being a story about models this week and became a story about invoices. On July second, Microsoft — page one of the Cash Flow Memo — stood up a unit called Frontier Co.: two and a half billion dollars, six thousand people, one job, which is to take AI products the last mile into enterprise deployment.¹ Two days later it moved to cut up to five thousand roles from sales, consulting, and Xbox.² The new layer is being paid for with the headcount of the old one. That is not a hiring plan. It is a company rebuilding itself around the part of AI that actually sends a bill.The model layer got three years of narrative. The deployment layer — the boring work of installing the thing, retraining the seat, wiring it into the workflow — is where the money changes hands, and the market has not repriced for that yet. Microsoft just showed you how the transition lands in a real profit-and-loss statement before it lands in a revenue line: deployment headcount up, legacy headcount down, net headcount roughly flat, and the revenue you are supposedly buying still not visible. The screens know how to price a growth story. They do not know how to price a margin-mix reallocation that hasn’t reached the top line.We have watched Microsoft run this exact play once before. The last decade’s version was the move from packaged software to subscription — the company retooled its sales motion and its cost base around the cloud years ahead of the recurring revenue, wore an ex-growth multiple through the gap, and re-rated hard only once the ARR became legible. Frontier Co. is the same bet, one rung up the stack. The reorg comes first. The revenue is the lagging indicator. The interval between them is exactly where a name gets mispriced.The pricing tells landed the same week, on both ends of the stack. Microsoft made the Copilot Business seat a permanent product at twenty-one dollars a month³ — the output price, now fixed. And AWS, per a Yahoo Finance report, raised GPU instance prices about twenty percent on July first⁴ — the input price, moving up. Read those two together and you are watching enterprise-AI unit economics get discovered in real time: the cost of compute rising, the price of the seat set. The names that compound from here are the ones that can lift the output price faster than the input cost climbs. Microsoft, sitting on the seat, can. Most of the memo, buying the compute, cannot.One honest caveat on the input side, because it is doing a lot of work: the AWS move is one vendor’s list price on specific instances. Azure and Google have not publicly matched, and a list price is not what a committed customer actually pays. Whether it holds through the next wave of capacity — the sixty-five-to-seventy-five-billion-dollars-per-gigawatt data-center builds Hunt, Jason, and Mike walked through on Wednesday⁵ — is the tell for whether this is structural scarcity or a headline. Don’t let one instance-price line stand in for the whole compute market.The cashflow read is in Marcus’s column below — short version, Microsoft is paying about thirty-eight times trailing free cash flow⁶ for a deployment curve that isn’t in the numbers yet, on capex already running close to a hundred billion a year.⁷ Palantir, the pure-play version of the same government-and-enterprise bet, asks a hundred and eight.⁸What changes the read is retention, not growth. The test on the next print, due late this month, is whether Copilot seat retention and attach start to show up inside Microsoft Cloud growth before the capex compounds past them. If deployment headcount grows and the seats don’t stick, that is the tell that enterprises are buying the org, not the outcome — and the whole bet inverts. Watch the AWS price too: if Azure and Google haven’t matched within a quarter, the twenty-percent move was a one-vendor list-price event, not the scarcity signal it read as. Mark the calendar for both.Wall Street’s consensus on enterprise AI: show us the revenue, then we’ll pay for it. But the org charts and the price tags moved this week, and the revenue line always arrives last. The last time Microsoft reorganized ahead of its own revenue, the people who waited for the number paid up for the wait.The Tape — W2627Universe of 94 cashflow-memo names, snap dates 2026-07-02 → 2026-07-03. Composite is rank-sum percentile of FCF Yield + NTM Revenue Growth (higher = better balance). Banks and finance-book names shown separately.Telltales Yield — Top 10From the Cashflow Desk — Marcus GrahamThe enterprise-AI trade got expensive this week, and the cheapest way to own it is sitting at number four on the board. Salesforce already licenses a seat inside nearly every enterprise now buying AI deployment — and the memo has it at 10.5x trailing free cash flow, a 9.5% FCF yield, against single-digit NTM growth. Palantir asks ~108x for a version of the same government-and-enterprise AI story. That gap is either the market correctly pricing Salesforce as ex-growth, or an unpriced option on Agentforce turning installed seats into AI attach. The table can’t tell you which. The test on the next print is whether agent adoption shows up in current RPO and net seat expansion — or whether single-digit growth is the new ceiling.Telltales Yield — Bottom 10This Week’s ReportersNo universe names reporting in the coming 7 days.Sector MediansDebt / FCF Watch (highest leverage on TTM FCF)Weekly Price MovementTop 5 (week-over-week price) Bottom 5 (week-over-week price) Banks (shown separately — FCF metric not meaningful)Finance-book — FCF not comparableCustomer-float / captive-finance / reserve businesses (IBKR broker float, KMX CarMax Auto Finance, PYPL customer funds, CRCL stablecoin reserves). The memo’s operating-FCF method overstates their FCF, so they are held off the ranked leaderboard pending the P&L-waterfall rebuild. Data Gaps91 of 91 ranked-eligible names ranked. 0 dropped for missing FCF yield or NTM revenue growth; 7 shown separately (banks + finance-book, FCF not comparable).Source: cashflow-memo master_2026-07-03.csv. NTM growth from analyst-estimates consensus. Composite is a percentile rank, not a recommendation.The Issue — This Week's BriefThe Cashflow MemoW2627 — Tesla Blew Past Delivery Estimates, Comcast Split Itself into Cash, and Enterprise AI Started Setting PricesTesla blew past delivery estimates, Comcast split itself into cash, and enterprise AI started setting prices.The Telltales Weekend Update. Ava Cabot and analyst Marcus Graham walk through what happened this week — and what’s coming next — across the companies in the Cash Flow Memo. About 14 minutes. No filler.Download the memo at telltales.us. Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode E2628.Chapter markers* Time | Segment* 0:00 | Opening disclaimer* 0:15 | Cold open — throughline + prior-Wed callback* 0:45 | Theme — AI Goes to Work (Microsoft, Palantir)* 4:45 | Deep dive — Two Multiples (Tesla, Comcast)* 8:45 | Rapid-fire (Walmart, Harrow, Eli Lilly)* 11:45 | Close — Consensus Watch + earnings season preview* 12:30 | Closing disclaimerFull transcriptOpening disclaimerAva: The following conversation is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you.Cold openAva: You’re listening to the Telltales Weekend Update. I’m Ava Cabot.Marcus: And I’m Marcus Graham — the cashflow desk.Ava: Quick note: the show is produced entirely with AI tools, and both voices you’re hearing are AI-generated. Send feedback through the Substack.Ava: Enterprise AI went from story to price action this week. Microsoft committed $2.5 billion and 6,000 employees to a dedicated AI implementation unit — and simultaneously flagged cuts to up to 5,000 more in legacy functions. Palantir won the U.S. Army’s data backbone contract for its highest-priority modernization program. And AWS quietly raised GPU instance prices 20% on July 1[^amzn-gpu-pricing-20260701] — the first open, on-record pricing signal that compute scarcity is structural, not cyclic. Meanwhile, two companies at opposite ends of the Cash Flow Memo’s valuation spectrum each delivered exactly what they promised. And the market’s reaction told you what it’s currently willing to pay for.Ava: On Wednesday, Hunt, Jason, and Mike worked through the cost of building the AI infrastructure itself — data center builds now running $65–75 billion per gigawatt, memory running at 30–40% of the total buildout cost[^ep-e2627]. This weekend, we pick up on the demand side: who is deploying that infrastructure, at what scale, and what the cash flow math says about what the market believes will pay for it.Theme — AI Goes to WorkAva: On page one of the Cash Flow Memo this week — Microsoft moved. Not in the abstract direction of AI, but in the direction of paying for it organizationally. On July 2, Microsoft committed $2.5 billion and is deploying 6,000 employees into a new entity called Frontier Co. — a dedicated AI implementation unit built specifically to take AI products from development into enterprise deployment[^msft-frontier-ai-20260702]. On July 1, Microsoft also made Copilot Business a permanent SKU at $21 per user per month[^msft-copilot-sku-20260701], the pricing structure that the deployment unit is built around. And on July 3, the company announced it is cutting up to 5,000 employees from sales, consulting, and Xbox[^msft-layoffs-20260703]. Microsoft is funding the AI deployment bet with the headcount from the pre-AI org. That is a choice. Marcus — the cashflow frame.Marcus: Microsoft just put a price tag on the deployment layer — and it’s the capex number that makes this interesting. The memo had Microsoft at about 38 times trailing free cash flow on roughly $76 billion of trailing FCF going into this[^memo-msft-evfcf-20260331][^memo-msft-fcf-20260331]. Capex is running close to $100 billion trailing twelve[^memo-msft-capex-20260331]. That’s not a rounding error — that’s a declared bet on infrastructure before the Copilot revenue compounding is visible in the numbers. The test on the next print: whether Copilot dollar retention starts to justify the capex ahead of it. 38 times is what you pay when you believe the deployment curve is real. This week Microsoft told you it believes.Ava: On the government side of the same argument: Palantir. The U.S. Army this month selected Palantir Foundry as the cloud data layer for NGC2 — Next Generation Command and Control — described by the Army as its highest-priority modernization effort[^pltr-army-ngc2-20260622]. On June 29, Palantir and Nvidia launched an engine for deploying Nvidia’s Nemotron open models in sovereign, air-gapped government environments[^pltr-nvidia-sovereign-ai-20260629]. The market digested all of it on July 1: Palantir up 7.8%, adding about $22 billion to its market value in a single session[^pltr-stock-rally-20260701]. DA Davidson followed on July 2 with a Buy upgrade and a $175 target[^pltr-da-davidson-upgrade-20260702]. Marcus — at 108 times free cash flow, what exactly is the market paying for?Marcus: Palantir is the closest thing the memo has to a pure-play on government AI becoming mandatory infrastructure rather than optional tooling. The memo has Palantir at about 108 times trailing free cash flow on roughly $2.7 billion of trailing FCF[^memo-pltr-evfcf-20260331][^memo-pltr-fcf-20260331]. Revenue ran about 85% growth year over year[^memo-pltr-rev-20260331]. That growth rate is real — but at this multiple, you are paying for every NATO-adjacent government following the Army’s architecture choice. NGC2 makes that thesis credibly possible. It doesn’t make it certain. The difference between possible and certain is where the risk lives.Ava: That’s the theme this week. AI isn’t just being built anymore — it’s going to work. AWS pricing compute as a scarce resource. Microsoft organizing its headcount around deployment. Palantir wiring the Army’s command layer into Foundry. The abstract investment argument just became a series of operating decisions with dollar amounts attached.Deep dive — Two Multiples, One WeekAva: The deep dive this week is a comparison. Two companies moved on the same week for completely different reasons — and they sit at opposite ends of what the market is currently willing to pay for. Tesla — also on page one of the memo this week — at just under 200 times trailing free cash flow. Comcast at 6.5 times trailing free cash flow. One company delivered a delivery beat. One delivered a restructuring announcement. The market applauded both. But the questions each answer are completely different.Ava: Tesla reported Q2 deliveries of 480,000 vehicles — up 25% year over year and marking the company’s first year-over-year delivery growth since 2023[^tsla-q2-deliveries-20260702]. That beat sell-side consensus by 74,000 units, or about 18% above where even the most bullish estimates were sitting[^tsla-deliveries-beat-20260702]. Comcast on June 29 announced it would spin off NBCUniversal and Sky into a new, separate publicly traded entity via a tax-free split expected to complete in approximately one year[^cmcsa-nbcu-spinoff-20260629]. Comcast is retaining a 19.9% stake in NBCUniversal for up to a year before monetizing[^cmcsa-ownership-20260629]. Comcast shares surged 21% in premarket on the announcement[^cmcsa-stock-surge-20260629]. Two very different proofs of value. Marcus — start with Tesla.Marcus: Tesla just proved the car business still works. Going into the Q2 financial print — which lands July 22[^tsla-earnings-schedule-20260702] — the memo had Tesla at just under 200 times trailing free cash flow on about $7 billion of trailing FCF, up more than double from the prior 12 months[^memo-tsla-evfcf-20260331][^memo-tsla-fcf-20260331]. The delivery beat answers one question: the demand is real, the business isn’t broken. The multiple asks a second question the delivery print does not answer: whether the autonomy layer scales into a standalone revenue stream. Those are different theses. One was validated this week. The other is what you are paying 200 times cash flow to believe.Ava: 200 times. Take a moment with that number.Marcus: On Comcast — the spinoff unlocks something the combined company had been hiding for years. The memo had Comcast at 6.5 times trailing free cash flow at about a 15% yield, on roughly $25 billion of trailing FCF going into the announcement[^memo-cmcsa-evfcf-20260331][^memo-cmcsa-fcf-20260331]. The broadband and cable infrastructure stays at Comcast — that’s the cash machine. The content SpinCo gets the narrative and the hype. How the debt distributes between the two entities during separation determines which stub actually screens cheaper at the stub level — that’s the number to watch during the 12 months of separation. The swing factor is whether broadband subscribers hold through the streaming transition once the content discount is removed.Ava: Goldman Sachs cut their price target to $26 this week[^cmcsa-gs-downgrade-20260702]. The broadband company was always 6.5 times — the content assets were the noise that obscured it.Marcus: That’s the argument. And it’s the cleanest sum-of-the-parts unlock in the memo universe right now. A 15% free cash flow yield on a broadband business with over 60 million subscribers is a different conversation once you don’t have to price it alongside Peacock.Ava: One name at nearly 200 times trailing free cash flow. One at 6.5 times. Both moved meaningfully on the same week. What the comparison says is something about where narrative premium lives right now versus where current cash generation prices. Tesla delivery beats don’t price autonomy — they confirm the baseline. Comcast restructurings don’t create cash — they reveal it. The market decided this week exactly how it wants to pay for each kind of proof.Rapid-fireAva: Rapid-fire. Three names, no deep analytical beat — just the week’s signal.Ava: Walmart. Cleveland Research flagged slowing U.S. comparable store sales and raised questions about whether Walmart is lowering prices aggressively to clear excess inventory, raising doubts on near-term sales guidance and merchandise margins[^wmt-comps-slowdown-20260701]. The stock dropped 8.5% on the note[^wmt-margin-strategy-20260701]. Then June non-farm payrolls came in significantly below economist projections on July 2 — eased rate concerns, institutional buyers stepped in, and Walmart bounced 3%[^wmt-rebound-payrolls-20260702]. The memo has Walmart at 62 times trailing free cash flow at a 1.5% yield. At 62 times, you are priced for flawless execution at 4% revenue growth. A Cleveland Research comp note is not a blip. It’s a thesis stress test. The bounce doesn’t resolve the question; it just means the question waits for next quarter.Ava: Harrow. The BYOOVIZ commercial launch happened July 1 — an FDA-approved interchangeable biosimilar referencing Lucentis, commercialized through Harrow’s exclusive agreement with Samsung Bioepis[^hrow-byooviz-launch-20260701]. BYOOVIZ is Harrow’s entry into the anti-VEGF market, which runs roughly $9 billion annually. Harrow’s full-year revenue guidance is $350–$365 million — the BYOOVIZ ramp is load-bearing for that number. At 48 times trailing free cash flow on a smaller-cap name, the launch velocity matters. The first signal on the ramp arrives with the Q2 print.Ava: Eli Lilly. The Medicare GLP-1 Bridge Program launched July 1, giving eligible Medicare Part D patients access to Foundayo — that’s orforglipron — and Zepbound at a $50 monthly copay[^lly-medicare-glp1-20260701]. The same week, the FDA selected Lilly for its PreCheck manufacturing fast-lane pilot, with Lilly’s active pharmaceutical ingredient plant in Indiana now in the program[^lly-fda-precheck-20260629]. Lilly’s full-year revenue guide is $82–$85 billion[^lly-q1-2026-20260430]. The memo has it at 81 times trailing free cash flow. The access expansion thesis just got two pieces of infrastructure in one week. The ramp is what the multiple is betting on — and a House investigation into China clinical trials with a July 17 deadline is the counter-catalyst to watch.CloseAva: That’s the show. Wall Street’s consensus on Tesla: the delivery beat validates the autonomy thesis. It validates the car thesis. But those are different theses at very different prices. A delivery beat confirms the baseline business isn’t broken. It doesn’t price the autonomy layer — that’s a separate bet, and it’s still a bet.Ava: Earnings season opens this coming week. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs both report Tuesday[^earn-jpm][^earn-gs]. ASML drops Wednesday — which means the export control story and the Netherlands joining the Pax Silica alliance get a revenue number attached to them, with China at roughly 20% of projected 2026 systems revenue[^asml-decline-20260701]. Morgan Stanley also Wednesday[^earn-ms]. Thursday is stacked: Netflix, TSM, and UnitedHealth all in one session[^earn-nflx][^earn-tsm][^earn-unh]. Seven reports in four days. The opening bell of Q2 earnings season. Hunt, Jason, and Mike promised the mid-year predictions scorecard on Wednesday — and Hunt’s exact words were, next week we’ll all be kind of embarrassed by how poorly our predictions went[^ep-e2627]. Looking forward to it. They’re back Wednesday on episode E2628. Download the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us.Closing disclaimerAva: The views expressed on this podcast are the host alone and do not constitute an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the host nor any of their employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of this information. The host and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future, and may or may not hold positions in the securities mentioned.Sources* AWS raising GPU instance prices 20% on July 1. (2026, July 1). Yahoo Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/aws-raising-gpu-instance-prices-134420295.html* ASML Holding NV Stock (ASML) Moved Down by 6.02% on Jul 1: What Investors Need To Know. (2026, July 1). TradingKey. https://www.tradingkey.com/news/market-movers/262004606-market-movers-asml-20260701* Comcast announces it will spin off NBCUniversal and Sky from cable business. (2026, June 29). CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/29/comcast-announces-it-will-spin-off-media-and-tech-wings-into-separate-public-companies.html* Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) Given New $26.00 Price Target at The Goldman Sachs Group. (2026, July 2). Markets Daily. https://www.themarketsdaily.com/2026/07/02/comcast-nasdaqcmcsa-given-new-26-00-price-target-at-the-goldman-sachs-group.html* Comcast NBCUniversal Spinoff Splits 65 Million Subscribers Across Two New Companies. (2026, June 29). Tech Times. https://www.techtimes.com/articles/319337/20260629/comcast-nbcuniversal-spinoff-splits-65-million-subscribers-across-two-new-companies.htm* Comcast stock surges as cable giant announces company split. (2026, June 29). Yahoo Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/comcast-stock-surges-as-cable-giant-announces-company-split-123931766.html* Eli Lilly and Company. (2026, April 30). Lilly reports first-quarter 2026 financial results, raises full year guidance, and highlights momentum of new medicines [Press release]. Eli Lilly Investor Relations. https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lilly-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results-raises-full* GlobeNewswire. (2026, July 1). Harrow Announces Commercial Launch of BYOOVIZ® in the United States [Press release]. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/07/01/3320502/0/en/Harrow-Announces-Commercial-Launch-of-BYOOVIZ-in-the-United-States.html* Microsoft 365 Business Plans With Copilot Go Permanent for SMBs (July 2026). (2026, July 1). Windows Forum. https://windowsforum.com/threads/microsoft-365-business-plans-with-copilot-go-permanent-for-smbs-july-2026.425116/* Microsoft commits $2.5 billion and 6,000 employees to new AI implementation unit. (2026, July 2). CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/02/microsoft-commits-2point5-billion-6000-employees-ai-implementation-unit.html* Microsoft eyes another wave of layoffs that could hit 5,000 workers next week. (2026, July 3). Fox Business. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/microsoft-eyes-another-wave-layoffs-hit-5000-workers-next-week* Palantir Technologies. (2026, June 22). Palantir Secures Foundational Role in NGC2 Data Layer [Press release]. Palantir Investor Relations. https://investors.palantir.com/news-details/2026/Palantir-Secures-Foundational-Role-in-NGC2-Data-Layer/* Palantir Technologies. (2026, June 29). Palantir Launches Engine for Deploying NVIDIA Nemotron Open Models in Sovereign Environments [Press release]. Palantir Investor Relations. https://investors.palantir.com/news-details/2026/Palantir-Launches-Engine-for-Deploying-NVIDIA-Nemotron-Open-Models-in-Sovereign-Environments/* Palantir shares have struggled this year. D.A. Davidson says buy the dip. (2026, July 2). CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/02/palantir-shares-have-struggled-this-year-da-davidson-says-buy-the-dip.html* Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR) Wins Role As Data Architecture Backbone For US Army’s NGC2 Command Program. (2026, June 27). Foreign Policy Journal. https://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2026/06/27/palantir-nasdaq-pltr-wins-role-as-data-architecture-backbone-for-us-armys-ngc2-command-program/* PR Newswire. (2026, July 1). What Medicare Part D patients need to know about accessing Foundayo (orforglipron) and Zepbound (tirzepatide) for weight management [Press release]. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/what-medicare-part-d-patients-need-to-know-about-accessing-foundayo-orforglipron-and-zepbound-tirzepatide-for-weight-management-302810143.html* Tesla, Inc. (2026, July 2). Tesla Second Quarter 2026 Production, Deliveries and Deployments [Press release]. Tesla Investor Relations. https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-second-quarter-2026-production-deliveries-and-deployments* U.S. Food and Drug Administration. (2026, June 29). FDA Selects Seven Participants for PreCheck Pilot Program to Advance U.S. Drug Manufacturing. https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-selects-seven-participants-precheck-pilot-program-advance-us-drug-manufacturing* Walmart (WMT) Is Down 8.6% After Slowing U.S. Comps Raise Questions On Margin Strategy. (2026, July 1). Yahoo Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/walmart-wmt-down-8-6-051142700.html* Walmart Inc Stock (WMT) Moved Up by 3.15% on Jul 2: What Investors Need To Know. (2026, July 2). TradingKey. https://www.tradingkey.com/news/market-movers/262007772-market-movers-wmt-20260702* Why Walmart Plunged Today. (2026, July 1). Yahoo Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-walmart-plunged-today-185051907.htmlEarnings slate referencesEarnings dates sourced from the W2627 earnings slate (04. Publishing/shows/weekend-update/W2627/dryrun/earnings_slate.md), pulled 2026-07-04.* JPMorgan Chase (JPM) — 2026-07-14 (Tuesday), consensus EPS $5.61, consensus revenue $49.82B* Goldman Sachs (GS) — 2026-07-14 (Tuesday), consensus EPS $14.01, consensus revenue $16.02B* ASML (ASML) — 2026-07-15 (Wednesday), consensus EPS $7.98, consensus revenue $10.37B* Morgan Stanley (MS) — 2026-07-15 (Wednesday), consensus EPS $2.83, consensus revenue $19.29B* Netflix (NFLX) — 2026-07-16 (Thursday), consensus EPS $0.79, consensus revenue $12.58B* Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) — 2026-07-16 (Thursday), consensus EPS $3.77, consensus revenue $40.02B* UnitedHealth (UNH) — 2026-07-16 (Thursday), consensus EPS $4.84, consensus revenue $110.76BInternal dataInternal data is provided on a best efforts basis. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Mike, Hunt, and Jason run the exhibits fast, then dig into the AI buildout math that keeps getting worse, Oracle’s brutal week, and a healthcare block anchored by Lilly’s 340B fight. As always, download the Cashflow Memo at telltales.us.The Cashflow MemoKey Takeaways* Oil has settled into a ~$70 floor with backwardation nearly gone (~$3 now vs. the $90 near-month / $75 twelve-month spread at the Iran peak), and Hunt reads the Strait of Hormuz drone tit-for-tat as an indefinite status quo gated by cargo insurance, not Iranian intent, while Northeast heat firms nat gas as power prices spike toward 15c/kWh.* The White House is clearing Anthropic’s Fable-05 (announced today) while still restricting OpenAI’s latest, a few-weeks delay the hosts dismiss as trivial and as the regulatory capture the labs originally lobbied for, with no real risk of Chinese models leapfrogging on the pause.* AI data center cost has jumped to $65–75B per gigawatt (up from $30–50B earlier this year) with memory alone now 30–40% of the build per Gavin Baker, and a structural memory shortage (Micron plus the two Koreans running low capex) plus rumored TSMC price hikes leave no one immune and make the space-based data center thesis incrementally more compelling.* Oracle logged its worst week since 2001 on a bloated risk section and dependence on OpenAI’s questionable funding, but the bull case is replacement cost: contracted capacity is worth more than Oracle spent, so the levered buildout bet holds as long as a customer exists, not necessarily OpenAI.* Eli Lilly is pressing the 340B program (now 16% of US drug sales) by demanding hospitals prove need, with Bill Cassidy legislation this week codifying the fight, while Lantheus’s FDA setback was manufacturer-controls-only (not efficacy) and dovetails with the FDA’s new PreCheck pre-clearance pilot, and Vertex’s non-opioid painkiller is climbing a flatter S-curve than hoped.Show Notes[00:00] Welcome & The Cashflow Memo Mike opens with the week’s format across energy, technology, and healthcare.[00:25] Oil at $70: Hormuz & Collapsed Backwardation Hunt on the Strait of Hormuz status quo, backwardation collapsing to ~$3, and why cargo insurance sets the real ceiling on tanker traffic.[02:26] Gas, Heat & Power Prices The Northeast heat wave firming nat gas as stressed power markets spike toward 15c/kWh.[07:23] Russia-Ukraine Stalemate & Venezuela Refinery drone strikes and fuel shortages with muted oil impact, plus Venezuela’s earthquake and the Gulf Coast’s fit for heavy crude.[11:56] Washington Clears Anthropic’s Fable-05 The White House allows Fable-05 while restricting OpenAI; regulatory capture and why the delay barely matters.[14:22] Chinese Models, Sonnet 5 & Tiered Pricing Distillation, token efficiency, and Sonnet 5 as a two-generation-old model upgraded — tiered effort as a pricing strategy.[16:04] The $75B Gigawatt & the Memory Shortage Data center cost doubling to $65–75B/GW, memory at 30–40% of the build, and a shortage that capex can’t quickly fix.[16:50] Oracle’s Worst Week Since 2001 The oversized risk section, OpenAI dependence, and the replacement-cost bull case.[18:18] Data Centers in Space Why orbit starts to pencil out when labor and time are the only knobs left to turn.[21:15] Healthcare: Pfizer, Lantheus & FDA PreCheck Pfizer’s patent-cliff cheapness, Lantheus’s manufacturer-only FDA rejection, and the FDA’s new pre-clearance pilot.[23:53] BioNTech, Moderna & Vertex’s Slow S-Curve Cash positions, pipeline burn, and a flatter-than-hoped non-opioid painkiller adoption curve.[25:07] Eli Lilly and the 340B Fight 16% of US drug sales flow through 340B; Lilly demands proof of need as Cassidy legislation codifies the battle.[27:37] Harrow Litigation & Mid-Year Predictions Preview A December 7th jury trial over a compounded product, and a predictions scorecard coming next week.Subscribe for weekly cashflow-driven investing across energy, technology, and healthcare, and grab the memo at telltales.us.Cashtags$AMZN $BNTX $GOOGL $LLY $LNTH $MRNA $MU $ORCL $PFE $TSM $VRTX This post and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down →The Week Memory Stopped Being a CommodityFor forty years, memory was the worst business in technology. Brutally cyclical, structurally commoditized, a graveyard of balance sheets that overbuilt into every upcycle and got buried in the glut that followed. You did not own memory. You rented it, for one cycle, and you got out before the supply caught up. This week Micron told you that business is over — and the people still pricing it as a cycle are fighting the last war.Start with the number that actually matters, and it is not the print. Yes, Micron guided next quarter to fifty billion dollars against a Street modeling forty-three, and yes, the market cap crossed a trillion.¹ Spikes like that are exactly what the cyclical bears are built to fade. The thing that should stop you is buried below the headline: sixteen legally binding take-or-pay contracts, locking in roughly a fifth of Micron’s DRAM capacity through the end of the decade.² Take-or-pay is the language of pipelines and LNG terminals, not chips. It is what a supplier signs when the buyer is more afraid of not having the product than of overpaying for it. That sentence has never been true about memory before.This is a capital-cycle story, and the cleanest analog is crude. The oil majors spent decades destroying their own returns by spending every dollar of cash flow drilling into the next price spike. Then, somewhere after 2015, the survivors consolidated and discovered discipline — capex restraint, returns over volume, supply that no longer rushed to kill every upcycle. The multiples did not re-rate because demand exploded. They re-rated because the industry stopped overbuilding. Memory now has three players who matter, AI demand that arrives on multi-year contracts instead of a consumer whim, and customers signing away their option to walk. That is not a cycle turning. That is a commodity becoming a toll road.And you can read the toll on everyone downstream. Apple raised prices on fourteen products this week and took its worst single day in over a year, with Tim Cook calling the memory spike a hundred-year flood unlike anything in his forty years.³ A company that prints a hundred-thirty billion in trailing free cash flow does not pass costs to the customer over a blip — it eats them. It passes them when the input is structural, and the same week it is quietly lobbying Washington to buy from a blacklisted Chinese supplier just to get the parts.⁴ Oracle is funding its AI cloud with a twenty-four-billion-dollar free-cash-flow deficit and forty billion more in planned debt, the whole build premised on memory it has to secure years out.⁵ Broadcom and OpenAI unveiled a chip designed to cut inference cost in half — which is what you do when the underlying components got expensive enough to engineer around. Every one of those moves is a payment, in a different currency, to the same toll booth.The cashflow read is in Marcus’s column below — short version: the Cash Flow Memo had Micron going into the print at a hundred-plus times trailing free cash flow, and it was the wrong frame, because the contracts changed what the denominator will look like.What changes the read is the supply side, and the calendar is short. The test is whether Samsung and SK Hynix hold the same discipline or break ranks and flood capacity into these prices — the move that has ended every prior memory upcycle. Watch the fiscal-2027 capex commitments from all three, and watch whether more take-or-pay contracts get signed or this stays a sixteen-deal anomaly. The thesis breaks the moment one of the three decides that share matters more than price. It always has before.Wall Street’s consensus on memory: enjoy the spike, the cycle always rolls over, it always has. Sixteen take-or-pay contracts running to 2030 say the cartel finally learned what the oil majors learned — that the most valuable thing you can do with a commodity is refuse to make too much of it.The Tape — W2626Universe of 94 cashflow-memo names, snap dates 2026-06-19 → 2026-06-27. Composite is rank-sum percentile of FCF Yield + NTM Revenue Growth (higher = better balance). Banks and finance-book names shown separately.Telltales Yield — Top 10From the Cashflow Desk — Marcus GrahamMicron isn’t in this table, and that’s the point — the print is too fresh and the fiscal-year filing hasn’t landed, so the memo number is already stale. Going into the quarter the memo had it at 102x trailing FCF, which was the wrong frame even then. The reframe is the contract book: 16 take-or-pay deals locking roughly a fifth of DRAM capacity through 2030. Take-or-pay converts a commodity denominator into something closer to contracted revenue, and the screens won’t reprice that until the filings show it. The test is the next fiscal-year filing — and whether Samsung and SK Hynix sign the same paper or break ranks on price.Telltales Yield — Bottom 10This Week’s ReportersSector MediansDebt / FCF Watch (highest leverage on TTM FCF)Weekly Price MovementTop 5 (week-over-week price) Bottom 5 (week-over-week price) Banks (shown separately — FCF metric not meaningful)Finance-book — FCF not comparableCustomer-float / captive-finance / reserve businesses (IBKR broker float, KMX CarMax Auto Finance, PYPL customer funds, CRCL stablecoin reserves). The memo’s operating-FCF method overstates their FCF, so they are held off the ranked leaderboard pending the P&L-waterfall rebuild. Data Gaps90 of 90 ranked-eligible names ranked. 0 dropped for missing FCF yield or NTM revenue growth; 7 shown separately (banks + finance-book, FCF not comparable).Source: cashflow-memo master_2026-06-27.csv. NTM growth from analyst-estimates consensus. Composite is a percentile rank, not a recommendation.The Issue — This Week's BriefThe Cashflow MemoMemory Hits Escape VelocityThe week the memory shortage stopped looking like a cycle, and everything downstream paid the bill.The Telltales Weekend Update. Ava Cabot and analyst Marcus Graham walk through what happened this week — and what’s coming next — across the 90-plus companies in the Cash Flow Memo. About 13 minutes. No filler. Download the memo at telltales.us. Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode E2627.Chapter markers* Time | Segment* 0:15 | Cold open — memory’s escape velocity* 0:45 | Theme — memory’s downstream: Apple and Oracle* 4:45 | Deep dive — Micron and Broadcom* 9:00 | Rapid-fire — Nike, pharma, Meta, Tesla* 12:15 | Close — Consensus Watch + forward weekFull transcriptCold openAva: You’re listening to the Telltales Weekend Update. I’m Ava Cabot.Marcus: And I’m Marcus Graham — the cashflow desk.Ava: Quick note: the show is produced entirely with AI tools, and both voices you’re hearing are AI-generated. Send feedback through the Substack. We’re still in pilot, so tell us what’s working and what isn’t.Ava: Here’s the one thing to take from this week. Memory hit escape velocity. And everything downstream — Apple’s price tags, Oracle’s balance sheet, the chips hyperscalers are now designing just to get out from under the cost — is a consequence of that one fact. On Wednesday’s show, episode 2626, Hunt, Jason, and Mike flagged the memory squeeze forcing Apple to raise prices.[^ep-e2626] Then Micron reported. And the squeeze stopped looking like a cycle and started looking like a supercycle.Theme — memory’s downstreamAva: Start where it hits you at the checkout. Apple just told you the memory shortage has reached the price tag. The company raised prices on 14 products this week — MacBooks up $200, the iPad up to $449, Vision Pro now $3,699.[^aapl-price-hikes-20260625] The stock had its worst day in over a year, down about 6%, roughly $265 billion of market value gone in a session.[^aapl-stock-decline-20260625] And Tim Cook didn’t hedge it. He told the Wall Street Journal memory and storage prices have quadrupled in three quarters, and called it, quote, a hundred-year flood, unlike anything he’s seen in over 40 years.[^aapl-cook-quote-20260625]Ava: And then the quiet part. The same week Apple raised your prices, it was lobbying the Trump administration for permission to buy memory from ChangXin — a Chinese maker that sits on the Pentagon’s blacklist.[^aapl-cxmt-lobby-20260627] That’s how short memory is. And the talent is chasing the same scarcity — Apple’s head of Vision Pro and smart-glasses engineering left this week for OpenAI’s hardware unit, after seven years on the project.[^aapl-meade-openai-20260626] Marcus — Apple can afford to eat this. Why is it passing it on?Marcus: Because the flood is real and Apple is telling you it can’t source its way around it. This is a company that prints cash — the memo had Apple at 35 times trailing free cash flow at a roughly 3% yield going in, on about $130 billion of trailing free cash flow.[^memo-aapl-evfcf-20260627][^memo-aapl-fcf-20260627] A company with that cash machine raises prices on the customer only when the input cost is structural, not a blip. The price hikes aren’t the story. The lobbying to buy from a blacklisted supplier is the story. That’s a hardware company admitting the supply chain it actually wants is the one it’s not allowed to use.Ava: From the checkout to the data center. Oracle is building the AI cloud with borrowed money and a shrinking payroll. The company cut 21,000 jobs over the past year, about 13% of the workforce, while it pours money into infrastructure.[^orcl-layoffs-20260627] Free cash flow for fiscal 2026 swung to a deficit of nearly $24 billion, driven by $55.7 billion in capital spending.[^orcl-fcf-20260627] And it’s guiding next year to $90 billion in revenue while planning to raise another $40 billion in debt.[^orcl-guidance-20260627][^orcl-financing-20260627] Marcus, what does that infrastructure actually cost?Marcus: It costs the balance sheet, and Oracle’s making that bet out loud. There’s no multiple to anchor here — when you spend $55.7 billion on capex and free cash flow runs a $24 billion deficit, the price-to-cash-flow frame just doesn’t apply.[^memo-orcl-fcf-20260627] So don’t pretend it does. What you’re actually underwriting is whether $40 billion in fresh debt turns into $90 billion of durable cloud revenue, or into stranded capacity.Ava: A bet, not a business yet.Marcus: Not yet. And the tell will be the financing. Oracle already raised $43 billion in debt this past year, and it’s planning $40 billion more.[^orcl-financing-20260627] When a company funds the build with the bond market instead of its own cash flow, the bond market gets a vote on the strategy. On page 2 of the memo, Oracle sits right next to Broadcom — the two sides of the same AI infrastructure trade. One is borrowing to build it. The other is selling the shovels at a profit. Hold that thought.Deep dive — Micron and BroadcomAva: Here’s the deep dive, and it’s really one argument. Same week, same end-market, two completely different stories. Micron printed the memory supercycle in raw numbers. Broadcom showed you exactly what the hyperscalers will pay to escape its downstream cost. Two sides of one trade.Ava: The headlines, side by side. Micron reported fiscal Q3 revenue of $41.5 billion — against prior guidance of around $24 billion — and then guided next quarter to $50 billion, when Wall Street was modeling $43 billion.[^mu-q3-revenue-20260627][^mu-q4-guidance-20260627] The stock jumped 16% and the market cap crossed $1 trillion.[^mu-stock-surge-20260627][^mu-market-cap-20260627] Meanwhile Broadcom and OpenAI unveiled a custom inference chip called Jalapeño, built to cut AI inference cost by about half versus a standard GPU.[^avgo-jalapeno-chip-20260627][^avgo-jalapeno-cost-20260627] Marcus — which one is the bigger surprise?Marcus: Micron, and it’s not close. Going into this print the memo had Micron at 102 times trailing free cash flow — and I want to be clear, those numbers are now ancient history; we re-anchor when the fiscal-year filing lands.[^memo-mu-evfcf-20260627] Forget the multiple. The thing that matters is buried in the release: 16 legally binding take-or-pay contracts that lock in roughly 20% of Micron’s DRAM capacity through the end of 2030.[^mu-customer-agreements-20260627] That’s not a cycle. A cycle is when prices spike and supply floods in to kill them. This is customers signing five-year contracts to guarantee they get product at all. The cycle didn’t turn. The structure changed.Ava: But every memory bull has been burned by the next air pocket. What stops this from rolling over the way it always has?Marcus: The mix. Micron’s data center revenue went up more than sevenfold year over year, to about $11.5 billion in the quarter.[^mu-datacenter-20260627] The old memory cycle ran on phones and PCs — discretionary demand that turns on a dime. This run is driven by AI training and inference clusters, where the buyer is a hyperscaler signing multi-year capacity. Contracted demand doesn’t air-pocket the way discretionary demand does. The real risk isn’t a sudden glut — it’s that the build pauses. And the take-or-pay contracts are written so that even if a customer pauses, Micron still gets paid. That’s the difference between this and 2018.Ava: So why is Broadcom the other half of this?Marcus: Because Jalapeño is what you do when the input you depend on just got that expensive. Broadcom’s memo profile is the mirror image of Micron’s — about 68 times trailing free cash flow at a 1.5% yield, a real cash generator priced like one.[^memo-avgo-evfcf-20260627][^memo-avgo-fcfyield-20260627] And its AI semiconductor revenue is already running over $10 billion a quarter, guided toward more than $100 billion in fiscal 2027.[^avgo-fy2027-guidance-20260627] The Jalapeño chip — 50% cheaper inference, co-designed with OpenAI — is the hyperscalers saying out loud that GPU economics hurt enough to design around. Nvidia is the chip everyone’s now trying to engineer their way past. That’s not a knock on Nvidia. That’s a tell on how expensive the whole stack got.Ava: And does Jalapeño actually dent Nvidia, or is it a negotiating chip?Marcus: Both, and that’s the point. One custom processor doesn’t break a software moat that took 15 years to build. But it changes every procurement meeting — now the hyperscaler has a credible second source to wave around. The forward test for Broadcom is just as simple: does that $100 billion fiscal-2027 AI number actually show up, or does it stay a slide in a deck? If it shows up, 68 times trailing was cheap. If it slips, it was the top. Either way, Broadcom gets paid to build the escape hatch.Marcus: Here’s the line that ties it together. Memory is the new crude oil. And like crude, the people who locked in supply before the price doubled look smarter every single quarter. Micron just signed the people who locked in.Ava: Memory is the new crude oil. Sit with that one.Rapid-fireAva: Rapid fire. Step away from memory for a minute.Ava: Nike is the turnaround that keeps not arriving, and Tuesday it gets graded. The company reports Q4 results Tuesday afternoon, with the stock sitting at a 52-week low of $40, down about 35% on the year.[^nke-q4-earnings-20260627][^nke-52wk-low-20260627] KeyBanc downgraded it this week on slow turnaround progress and headwinds in China and Europe.[^nke-keybanc-downgrade-20260627] And here’s the crossover detail — Nike’s new finance chief is David Denton, hired straight out of the Pfizer CFO seat.[^nke-denton-cfo-20260627]Ava: Which brings us to pharma, where the week was busy. On page 15 of the memo — Pfizer and Moderna. Pfizer got an FDA approval expanding its IBRANCE breast-cancer regimen, and it’s pushing 10 Phase 3 studies this year on its monthly GLP-1, berobenatide — the obesity option the market isn’t really pricing.[^pfe-ibrance-approval-20260627][^pfe-berobenatide-phase3-20260627] Pfizer trades around 16 times free cash flow at a 6% yield, so you’re paid to wait.[^memo-pfe-evfcf-20260627] And Moderna got a unanimous, 9-0 FDA advisory vote backing its mRNA flu vaccine, with a decision due August 5 — which would be the first mRNA flu shot licensed in the US.[^mrna-flu-vac-20260627] The stock jumped about 12% on the news.[^mrna-stock-jump-20260627] Two names, one page, two very different clocks — Pfizer’s a yield-and-optionality story you can hold, Moderna’s a binary that resolves August 5.Ava: Meta showed you the memory supercycle hitting the biggest ad budget in tech. It raised its 2026 capital spending guide to between $125 and $145 billion, blaming higher component pricing and data-center costs.[^meta-capex-20260627] Same flood, different shore. It also unveiled in-house AI smart glasses at $299 and a prediction-market app called Arena.[^meta-glasses-20260627][^meta-prediction-market-20260627]Ava: And Tesla — the number to watch lands Thursday. Tesla reports Q2 deliveries July 2, with consensus around 406,000 vehicles and Goldman up at 420,000 on a European recovery.[^tsla-q2-schedule-20260627][^tsla-gs-forecast-20260627] One analyst cut the stock to Sell this week, citing energy storage revenue down 12% and robotaxi delays.[^tsla-downgrade-20260627] The delivery print is the first real read on whether Europe offsets China.CloseAva: That’s the show. Wall Street’s consensus on Micron: the memory cycle always rolls over, it always has. 16 take-or-pay contracts running through 2030 say maybe not this time. Keep score with me on that one.Ava: Forward week: Nike reports Tuesday, Tesla deliveries Thursday, and Moderna’s FDA clock runs toward August 5. Everything you heard today traces back to one chart — the price of memory — and the Cash Flow Memo is where we watch it propagate through all 90-plus names. Download it at telltales.us. Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode E2627.Ava: The views expressed on this podcast are the host alone and do not constitute an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the host nor any of their employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of this information. The host and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future, and may or may not hold positions in the securities mentioned.Sources* Apple posts worst day in over a year after MacBook and iPad price hikes. (2026, June 25). CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/25/apple-macbook-ipad-price-hike-memory.html* Apple seeks US approval to buy chips from blacklisted CXMT: FT. (2026, June 27). Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-27/apple-seeks-us-approval-to-buy-chips-from-blacklisted-cxmt-ft* Apple shares sink after price hikes hit iPads and Macs. (2026, June 25). Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-25/apple-raises-mac-and-ipad-prices-to-counter-memory-shortages* Apple’s Vision Pro and smart glasses chief Paul Meade is leaving for OpenAI. (2026, June 26). Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-26/apple-s-vision-pro-and-smart-glasses-chief-paul-meade-is-leaving-for-openai* Broadcom (AVGO) earnings report Q2 2026. (2026, June 3). CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/03/broadcom-avgo-earnings-report-q2-2026.html* FDA advisory panel votes 9-0 in favor of Moderna’s mRNA flu vaccine, setting stage for August decision. (2026, June 18). BioPharm International. https://www.biopharminternational.com/view/fda-advisory-panel-votes-9-0-in-favor-of-moderna-s-mrna-flu-vaccine-setting-stage-for-august-decision* FDA approves Pfizer’s IBRANCE regimen for HR+, HER2+ metastatic breast cancer frontline maintenance. (2026, June 24). BusinessWire. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260617408304/en/FDA-Approves-Pfizers-IBRANCE-Regimen-for-HR-HER2-Metastatic-Breast-Cancer-Frontline-Maintenance* Goldman Sachs raises Tesla Q2 2026 delivery forecast to 420K. (2026, June 26). Basenor. https://www.basenor.com/blogs/news/goldman-sachs-raises-tesla-q2-2026-delivery-forecast-to-420k* KeyBanc lowers Nike rating to Sector Weight on near-term uncertainty. (2026, June 26). Investing.com. https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/keybanc-lowers-nike-rating-to-sector-weight-on-nearterm-uncertainty-4762387* Meta plans to release AI-powered prediction market app, documents show. (2026, June 24). NPR. https://www.npr.org/2026/06/24/nx-s1-5869486/meta-prediction-market-app-ai* Meta Platforms, Inc. (2026). Form 8-K, FY2026 [Q1 results / 2026 capex guidance]. SEC EDGAR. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001326801/000162828026003832/meta-12312025xexhibit991.htm* Micron posts $41.5B Q3 revenue, guides Q4 to $50B. (2026, June 24). StockTitan. https://www.stocktitan.net/news/MU/micron-technology-inc-reports-record-results-for-the-third-quarter-6f50161e5zxh.html* Micron sales forecast tops estimates on memory-chip demand. (2026, June 24). Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-24/micron-sales-forecast-tops-estimates-on-insatiable-memory-demand* Micron stock hits record high after Q3 earnings. (2026, June 24). TradingKey. https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/261995206-micron-mu-q3-memory-shortage-cycle-ai-2027-samsung-skhynix-capex-tradingkey* Micron Technology stock could go parabolic after June 24. Here’s why. (2026, June 24). Yahoo Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/prediction-micron-technology-stock-could-110200571.html* MRNA stock surges as flu win and pipeline shift grab attention. (2026, June 26). Timothy Sykes News. https://www.timothysykes.com/news/moderna-inc-mrna-news-2026_06_26-2/* Nike names Pfizer CFO David Denton as next finance chief. (2026, June 23). Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-23/nike-hires-pfizer-cfo-denton-to-take-over-for-departing-friend* NIKE, Inc. (2026, June). NIKE, Inc. announces fourth quarter fiscal 2026 earnings and conference call [Press release]. Nike Investor Relations. https://investors.nike.com/investors/news-events-and-reports/investor-news/investor-news-details/2026/NIKE-Inc–Announces-Fourth-Quarter-Fiscal-2026-Earnings-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx* Nike stock hits 52-week low. (2026, June 26). Investing.com. https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/nike-stock-hits-52week-low-at-4132-usd-93CH-4758516* Broadcom Inc. (2026, June 24). OpenAI and Broadcom unveil LLM-optimized intelligence processor [Press release]. Broadcom Investor Relations. https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/openai-and-broadcom-unveil-llm-optimized-intelligence-processor* OpenAI launches custom AI chip Jalapeño with Broadcom (AVGO). (2026, June 24). GuruFocus. https://www.gurufocus.com/news/8930240/openai-launches-custom-ai-chip-jalapeno-with-broadcom-avgo* Oracle Corporation. (2026, June 10). Oracle announces record Q4 and FY 2026 results driven by Cloud Infrastructure & Cloud Applications [Press release]. Oracle Investor Relations. https://investor.oracle.com/investor-news/news-details/2026/Oracle-Announces-Record-Q4-and-FY-2026-Results-Driven-by-Cloud-Infrastructure–Cloud-Applications/default.aspx* Oracle lays off 21,000 employees in just 12 months due to AI adoption and costly AI infrastructure ambitions. (2026, June 23). Tom’s Hardware. https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/oracle-lays-off-21-000-employees-in-just-12-months-due-to-ai-adoption-and-costly-ai-infrastructure-ambitions-says-layoffs-will-continue-as-internal-ai-deployment-grows* Oracle Q4 earnings and revenue top estimates; hyperscaler plans more debt issuance to support massive capex push. (2026, June 11). Sherwood News. https://sherwood.news/tech/oracle-q4-earnings-and-revenue-top-estimates/* Oracle shares slide as hefty AI spending, debt plans spook investors. (2026, June 11). The Spokesman-Review. https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2026/jun/11/oracle-shares-slide-as-hefty-ai-spending-debt-plan/* Robust Phase 2b efficacy and favorable tolerability support monthly dosing for Pfizer’s GLP-1 RA berobenatide. (2026, June 5). BioSpace. https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/robust-phase-2b-efficacy-and-favorable-tolerability-support-monthly-dosing-for-pfizers-glp-1-ra-berobenatide* Tesla downgraded to Sell, citing energy storage and robotaxi delays. (2026). Yahoo Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-stock-drops-as-new-morgan-stanley-analyst-downgrades-shares-citing-valuation-164741776.html* Tesla Q2 2026 analyst delivery consensus. (2026, June 26). Electrek. https://electrek.co/2026/06/26/tesla-q2-2026-delivery-consensus-406000/Internal dataInternal data is provided on a best efforts basis. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Mike Nicoletti, Hunt Lawrence, and Jason Wallace dig into the looming Treasury market stress, proprietary-data risk in the age of frontier AI models, and a Medicare for All blueprint that could reshape healthcare investing. A 30-minute tour across energy, technology, and healthcare, anchored by this week’s Cash Flow Memo.The Cashflow MemoKey Takeaways* Hunt puts better-than-even odds on a 2008-style Treasury market dislocation within 12-24 months as ~$2.5T of new government paper collides with the incoming Fed chair’s plan to run the balance sheet from ~$7T down to ~$1.5T, plus the financing wave funding AI data centers (SpaceX alone just did $25B of public debt after its equity raise).* The only fiscal lever large enough to bend the deficit is healthcare, and Hunt floats Medicare for All run by an independent, Fed-style administrator (he names Dr. Oz) that ends the ~$600B/year Medicaid transfer to states; investment read is to avoid new healthcare positions broadly but identify the specific winners of a restructured system.* Apple is running Apple Intelligence inference on Nvidia Blackwell inside Google Cloud (not TPUs) specifically because Nvidia uniquely offers encrypted-data-in-memory, making proprietary-data protection the new competitive axis for frontier-model compute.* On a forced 5-year choice between Nvidia and Alphabet, the hosts lean Nvidia on relative value: ~$160B free cash flow trending toward ~$200B with minimal CapEx (vs. Apple’s $120B and Alphabet’s heavy capital program compressing its FCF), framed as the picks-and-shovels seller in the AI buildout.* The memory-supply shortage is forcing Apple to raise device prices (an estimated +$275 on the iPhone Pro just to hold gross margin); Micron reports tonight, and the squeeze is driving a stack-wide efficiency push (Nvidia cites ~2.5x inference efficiency gains since OpenAI’s 5.5 models).Show Notes[00:26] Oil Holds in the 70s, and a Treasury Warning Hunt sees no change in the oil supply/demand picture, WTI holding around $71, and lower oil prices paradoxically supporting natural gas via reduced Permian growth. He lays out a better-than-50% case for a 2008-style Treasury dislocation in the next 12-24 months, with healthcare as the only spending lever big enough to matter.[05:23] Medicare for All and Fixing Sick Care The hosts debate whether the U.S. can shift from triaging illness to keeping people healthy, why insurers’ one-year underwriting horizon works against long-term health, and how government’s interest in Medicare aligns with prevention.[08:07] Proprietary Data in the Age of Frontier Models How do Lilly, Citadel, or a startup protect proprietary information when agents can analyze anything on the open internet? Apple’s choice to run inference on Nvidia Blackwell for encrypted-in-memory data, cloud providers’ security track record, and the new attack surface agents introduce.[17:42] Nvidia vs. Alphabet for Five Years A forced one-stock choice: Alphabet as the chicken bet spanning search, cloud, Gemini, and DeepMind, versus Nvidia’s ~$160B-trending-$200B free cash flow on minimal CapEx. Plus the memory shortage forcing a ~$275 iPhone price hike and a stack-wide efficiency race.[23:44] Healthcare Science: CRISPR, the FDA, and China A generalizable CRISPR approach that shreds cancerous tumor DNA, an FDA program to cut 6-12 months off Phase 1 trials by partnering biotechs with academic centers, and the competitive threat from faster-moving Chinese biotech.[29:49] Closing: Medicare for All, the Fed, and the Financing Wave Dr. Oz as a Fed-style independent Medicare administrator, identifying the healthcare winners of a restructured system, and the collision of Treasury issuance with massive data-center financing (SpaceX’s $25B debt raise).Download this week’s Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us, and subscribe for energy, tech, and healthcare insights every Wednesday.Cashtags$AAPL $AMZN $CHTR $CMCSA $GOOGL $LLY $MSFT $MU $NVDA $TGT $UPS $XOM This post and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down →Three Bottlenecks, One Multiple, and Only One MonopolyThe AI argument flipped sides this week. For two years the only question that mattered was whether anyone would actually buy all this compute, and Wednesday’s show put that one to bed. The question left standing is whether the supply chain can physically build it — the lithography, the power, the memory. And in the rush to own the chokepoints, the market did something lazy. It paid all three the same monopoly multiple. Only one of them is a monopoly.Start with the one that is. ASML makes the machine that etches the most advanced chips on earth, and it makes it alone — no second source, no roadmap to one, no credible challenger inside a decade. The Cash Flow Memo has it trading around sixty times free cash flow, on roughly eleven billion dollars of trailing free cash flow translated from euros.¹² That is a monopoly multiple, and for once it is bolted to an actual monopoly. The thing that can dent it is not a competitor — it is a government. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told ASML, per Bloomberg, that he is concerned a top-tier extreme-ultraviolet machine may have reached China in violation of export controls; the company denied it has ever shipped one there.³ Notice what the risk actually is. Not the machine. The map of who is allowed to buy it. ASML’s customer list is the only variable that has ever moved this stock, and it is the one variable ASML does not control.Now the two the market is paying as if they were ASML. GE Vernova booked more data-center power orders last quarter than it did in all of the prior year, and its turbine backlog now stretches past a hundred-ten gigawatts into 2029.⁴⁵ Free cash flow grew almost four hundred percent.⁶ Real demand, real scarcity — for now. But a gas turbine is not an EUV machine. Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi build them too, and slot scarcity is the kind of bottleneck competition fills in three or four years, not three or four decades. GE Vernova is renting its scarcity. The order book is genuine; the durability is the open question, and a thirty-times multiple is pricing the scarcity as if it were permanent.Then memory — the bottleneck with the longest rap sheet. Micron reports Wednesday with its entire 2026 high-bandwidth-memory output already sold under contract and DRAM pricing set to jump fifty percent this quarter.⁷⁸ The cashflow read is in Marcus’s column below — short version, the trailing multiple is the cheap number, not the scary one. But here is the part the show had no room for: memory is the one bottleneck on this list that has detonated itself before. Every prior cycle ended the same way. All three makers see the shortage, all three turn the capex spigot at once, supply overshoots demand, and the pricing that looked structural turns out to have been a moment. Micron is committing roughly two hundred billion dollars to new capacity, and its two competitors are spending into the same shortage.⁹ That is either supply discipline or the seed of the next glut, and you cannot tell which from inside the shortage. You never can. That is what makes memory memory.So three bottlenecks, three very different half-lives, and a tape paying all three the monopoly rate. The durable one — the cornered machine — arguably earns it. The other two are borrowing the multiple from the durable one, and the loan comes due the day a competitor adds a turbine line or a third memory maker blinks first on capex.What changes the read is Wednesday, and the tell is Micron’s gross-margin guide. Guide above where consensus already sits and the cycle is still accelerating into the glut question, not away from it.¹⁰ Merely meet it, and a sold-out company that only meets gets sold on the news. The trade across the whole supply chain breaks the moment any one of the three memory makers signals it is racing the other two to fill capacity rather than pacing itself.Wall Street’s consensus on the supply chain: own the bottleneck, any bottleneck, at any multiple. The math says own the one nobody else can build — and rent the other two only as long as the scarcity lasts.The Tape — W2625Universe of 94 cashflow-memo names, snap dates 2026-06-15 → 2026-06-19. Composite is rank-sum percentile of FCF Yield + NTM Revenue Growth (higher = better balance). Banks and finance-book names shown separately.Telltales Yield — Top 10From the Cashflow Desk — Marcus GrahamMicron reports Wednesday, and the reporters table holds the whole argument in two cells that read like a contradiction: a 1.0% trailing FCF yield sitting right beside 64% forward revenue growth. Trailing, Micron screens at 102x free cash flow — and that is a cyclical at the bottom of its cash cycle, where the trailing multiple measures the past and tells you nothing about the print. The 1.0% yield is the trough. The 64% is the market pricing what sold-out capacity earns once contract prices reset higher. The cheap-looking cell is the lie; the expensive-looking one is the tell. The test Wednesday is the gross-margin guide — clear where consensus already sits with the cycle still accelerating, or a sold-out name that merely meets gets sold on the news.Telltales Yield — Bottom 10This Week’s ReportersSector MediansDebt / FCF Watch (highest leverage on TTM FCF)Weekly Price MovementTop 5 (week-over-week price) Bottom 5 (week-over-week price) Banks (shown separately — FCF metric not meaningful)Finance-book — FCF not comparableCustomer-float / captive-finance / reserve businesses (IBKR broker float, KMX CarMax Auto Finance, PYPL customer funds, CRCL stablecoin reserves). The memo’s operating-FCF method overstates their FCF, so they are held off the ranked leaderboard pending the P&L-waterfall rebuild. Data Gaps90 of 90 ranked-eligible names ranked. 0 dropped for missing FCF yield or NTM revenue growth; 7 shown separately (banks + finance-book, FCF not comparable).Source: cashflow-memo master_2026-06-19.csv. NTM growth from analyst-estimates consensus. Composite is a percentile rank, not a recommendation.The Issue — This Week's BriefThe Cashflow MemoThe Week AI Became a Supply StoryThe bottleneck moved from demand to supply this week. Micron’s Wednesday print is the first real test.The Telltales Weekend Update. Ava Cabot and analyst Marcus Graham walk through what happened this week — and what’s coming next — across the 86 companies in the Cash Flow Memo. About 13 minutes. No filler. Download the memo at telltales.us. Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode E2626.Chapter markers* Time | Segment* 0:15 | Cold open — the supply side of AI* 0:45 | Theme — the two hardest things to build (ASML, GE Vernova)* 4:45 | Deep dive — Micron, the print that sets the cycle* 8:45 | Rapid-fire — Moderna, FedEx, Nike, Cheniere, Intel* 11:45 | Close — Consensus Watch + the week aheadFull transcriptOpening disclaimerAva: The following conversation is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you.Cold openAva: You’re listening to the Telltales Weekend Update. I’m Ava Cabot.Marcus: And I’m Marcus Graham — the cashflow desk.Ava: Quick note: the show is produced entirely with AI tools, and both voices you’re hearing are AI-generated. Send feedback through the Substack. This is still a pilot, so tell us what’s working and what isn’t.Ava: And one more thing before we start — this one lands on Father’s Day. So happy Father’s Day to all the dads listening. We’re glad you’re spending part of the morning with us.Ava: Here’s the week in one sentence. The argument about whether anyone will actually buy all this AI compute? That got settled on Wednesday’s show. This week the question flipped to the other side of the ledger — can we build the supply. The machines that print the chips, the power that runs them, and the memory that feeds them. All three flashed at once. Three different stories, one spine — the build is now gated by what can physically be manufactured, not by whether the demand shows up. On this week’s Telltales, episode 2625, Hunt, Jason, and Mike spent the hour on the demand side — NVIDIA at $5 trillion, the end of the subsidized-token era, who actually pays for the compute.[^ep-e2625b] We’re taking the other half. The supply chain that has to deliver before any of that demand means a thing.Theme — The two hardest things to buildAva: Two things in this build are genuinely hard to make. One is the machine that etches the chip. The other is the electricity that runs it. Both made news this week, and both made it for the same reason — the demand has gotten ahead of the supply. Start with the machine almost nobody owns. This week the US government told the company that makes it that one of those machines may have ended up somewhere it isn’t allowed to go. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told ASML’s leadership he’s concerned one of its top-tier extreme-ultraviolet lithography machines may have reached China, in violation of export controls.[^asml-us-export-concern-20260619] ASML denied it flatly — says it has never shipped an EUV machine to China.[^asml-us-export-concern-20260619] This on the same company that just raised its full-year guide to €36–40 billion on AI demand.[^asml-q1-earnings-20260619] Marcus — what does a monopoly on the most important machine in the world actually cost?Marcus: ASML is the only company on earth that can make this machine, and the market has always paid it like one. The memo has ASML at about 62 times free cash flow,[^memo-asml-evfcf-20260619] on roughly $11 billion of trailing free cash flow, translated from euros.[^memo-asml-fcf-20260619] That’s a monopoly multiple for a monopoly. The export-control story doesn’t touch the cash — it touches who’s allowed to be a customer. And for this name, the customer list is the only variable that has ever mattered. A monopoly is worth 62 times right up until a government starts deciding who it can sell to.Ava: So the risk isn’t the machine. It’s the map of where it’s allowed to ship. And if Lutnick’s concern turns out to be real — if a top-tier machine genuinely reached China — the read-through isn’t just one company’s quarter. It’s that the export-control wall the entire AI-chip supply chain is built on has a crack in it.[^asml-us-export-concern-20260619] That’s the bigger story, and it’s why a denial isn’t the end of this one. Now the other hard thing — and it’s the boring one, right up until it’s the bottleneck. Electricity. GE Vernova booked more data-center power orders in a single quarter than it did in all of last year. $2.4 billion of electrification equipment orders for data centers in the first quarter alone.[^gev-data-center-orders-20260619] Its gas-turbine backlog now stretches past 110 gigawatts into 2029,[^gev-turbine-backlog-20260619] and Bernstein just opened coverage with an Outperform, calling it a play on the AI power boom.[^gev-bernstein-20260619] Marcus — second one. What’s the cash say?Marcus: The power names spent a decade as widow-and-orphan utilities. GE Vernova just stopped being one. The memo has it at about 33 times free cash flow,[^memo-gev-evfcf-20260619] and free cash flow grew almost 400% year over year.[^memo-gev-fcf-20260619] That’s not a utility growth rate — that’s an order book repricing to AI in real time. $2.4 billion of data-center orders in one quarter[^gev-data-center-orders-20260619] is the tell. The thing I’d watch is conversion: that backlog only matters if the turbine slots actually deliver on schedule and don’t slip. The orders are real. The execution is the open question.Deep dive — MicronAva: Now the print that sets the whole cycle. Micron — page 5 of the memo, sharing it with GE Vernova, power and memory side by side — reports Wednesday after the close,[^earn-mu] and the question isn’t whether they beat. The question is whether there’s any memory left to sell. Because Micron’s entire 2026 high-bandwidth-memory production is already sold out — every chip, under binding contract, before the year is even half over.[^mu-hbm-sold-out-20260619] And DRAM contract pricing is set to jump 50–55% this quarter alone versus the end of last year.[^mu-dram-pricing-cycle-20260619] Marcus — when the product’s sold out a year ahead, what are we actually pricing?Marcus: Here’s the trap on this one. Trailing, Micron screens at 102 times free cash flow.[^memo-mu-evfcf-20260619] Ignore that number. It’s a cyclical at the bottom of its cash-flow cycle, and a trailing multiple on a cyclical at the trough is noise — it tells you about the past, not the print. Free cash flow already grew more than 500% off the bottom,[^memo-mu-fcf-20260619] and the forward revenue line is up about 64%.[^memo-mu-ntmrev-20260619] You don’t value this on what it earned. You value it on what sold-out capacity earns at much higher pricing. And against that, 102 times trailing is the cheap number, not the scary one.Ava: So the terrifying multiple is the cheap one. Marcus’s favorite kind of sentence.Marcus: It is. And the supply side is the part the bears can’t model. Micron is committing roughly $200 billion to new capacity.[^mu-capex-expansion-20260619] You do not put $200 billion against a cycle you think is about to roll over. That’s management telling you the shortage is structural, not a head-fake. It’s the same story Nvidia’s Rubin platform is telling from the other side of the table — Micron is the qualified high-bandwidth-memory supplier into it, shipping in volume.[^mu-rubin-hbm4-20260619]Ava: And the hiring backs it up.Marcus: It does. Per the Talnexis hiring tracker, Micron is the #3 hiring floor on the entire board — 3,000 open roles, 181 of them added just this week.[^tlnx-mu-hiringfloor-20260619] You don’t staff like that into a cycle you expect to break. The one thing I’d actually watch Wednesday is the gross-margin guide — guide above where consensus already sits[^mu-margin-guidance-20260619] and the cycle’s still accelerating. Merely meet it and the stock’s already there, and a sold-out company that only meets is a sell-the-news.Ava: So what actually breaks this?Marcus: Two things, and I’d weight them. The real risk was never demand — it’s supply discipline. If all three memory makers turn the capex spigot at once, you get a glut, and the cycle ends the way every memory cycle has ended. I’d put that around 30%. The nearer risk is mix — if high-bandwidth memory crowds out standard DRAM capacity, the blended margin doesn’t reach what the Street’s penciling in. Call that another 10%. Which leaves the base case at 60% — and it’s the boring one: sold out, pricing up 50%, the capacity already committed. The cash shows up whether the multiple believes it or not.Ava: So 30% it ends in tears, 10% it just muddles through on margin, 60% it prints money — and Marcus will at least give you the whole distribution instead of selling you a price target. 81% gross margin on what used to be a commodity.[^mu-margin-guidance-20260619] Read that twice. Broadcom and Oracle spent Wednesday’s show proving the demand is real.[^ep-e2625b] Micron on Wednesday tells you whether the supply can keep up. Same trade, opposite end of the table.Rapid-fireAva: Rapid-fire. Five names, and markets open Monday.Ava: Moderna had its best week in four years, and for once it had nothing to do with COVID. An FDA advisory panel voted 9-0 to endorse its mRNA flu vaccine for adults 50 and older,[^mrna-flu-vaccine-approval-20260619] with a final FDA decision expected by August 5. The stock jumped 28%.[^mrna-stock-jump-20260619] Free cash flow is still negative here — this is an optionality name, not a cash machine — but it’s the first real commercial catalyst since the COVID franchise rolled over.Ava: Two reporters sit together on page 17 of the memo, and they’re back to back next week. FedEx is first, Tuesday after the close.[^earn-fdx] The number that matters isn’t the quarter — it’s the breakup. The Freight spinoff is on track: 80.1% of the shares distributed to FedEx holders, and Freight pays a $4.1 billion special dividend back to the parent on the way out.[^fdx-freight-spinoff-taxfree-20260619] Add $1 billion of cost cuts this year from the DRIVE program,[^fdx-drive-program-20260619] and a forward guide that just got raised.[^fdx-guidance-raise-20260619] A cleaner, lighter FedEx is the entire thesis.Ava: Nike reports the following Tuesday, June 30.[^earn-nke] This is the clearest test yet of whether Elliott Hill’s turnaround is real. The headwinds are brutal — a $1.5 billion annual tariff hit that took gross margin down 300 basis points,[^nke-tariff-cost-20260619] China down 16%,[^nke-china-decline-20260619] digital down 14%.[^nke-digital-decline-20260619] Win Now has to show up in a number Tuesday, not a slogan. First place it can.Ava: Cheniere keeps building while everyone else watches the oil price. It signed a $4.69 billion engineering contract with Bechtel for the Sabine Pass expansion,[^lng-sabine-pass-epc-20260619] with a final investment decision targeted for early 2027, and it just finished Corpus Christi Trains 5 and 6.[^lng-corpus-christi-progress-20260619] And it throws off nearly an 8% free-cash-flow yield while it does it.[^memo-lng-fcfyield-20260619] The cash machine of the energy names.Ava: And Intel had a genuinely good week on the factory floor — which is the only place that matters for this story. Its 18A-P process entered risk production: 9% more performance at the same power.[^intc-18ap-20260619] And NVIDIA is evaluating that node for a future design.[^intc-nvidia-18a-20260619] No order yet. But the whole Intel thesis comes down to whether anyone outside Intel will manufacture on its leading node — and NVIDIA kicking the tires is the first real evidence in years.Ava: And one to file away for the fall. Vertex got its kidney-disease drug, povetacicept, accepted for FDA review this week — its first real move into a major indication beyond cystic fibrosis, with a decision due November 30.[^vrtx-povetacicept-20260619] Not a Monday catalyst. But a real one on the calendar.CloseAva: That’s the show. Wall Street’s consensus on Micron heading into Wednesday: 30 analysts, unanimous Buy, an average target around $1,015 on a stock that’s already there.[^mu-analyst-target-revisions-20260619] Consensus says the supercycle is priced in. Consensus has been wrong about memory at every single turn of this cycle. Hiring data this week from Talnexis — talnexis.com. The throughline one more time: the AI demand debate is over. Whether the supply chain can deliver — the lithography, the power, the memory — is the only question left, and Wednesday’s Micron print is the first real answer. Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode 2626, picking up whether proprietary data can actually be protected.[^ep-e2625b] Download the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us. I’m Ava Cabot. Thanks for listening.Closing disclaimerAva: The views expressed on this podcast are the host alone and do not constitute an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the host nor any of their employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of this information. The host and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future, and may or may not hold positions in the securities mentioned.Sources* ASML Holding. (2026). Q1 2026 financial results [Press release]. https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2026/q1-2026-financial-results* Barchart. (2026). FedEx’s Q4 2026 earnings: What to expect. https://www.barchart.com/story/news/1533352/fedex-s-q4-2026-earnings-what-to-expect* Bernstein / CNBC. (2026, June 16). GE Vernova (GEV) quote and analyst coverage. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/GEV* Cheniere Energy. (2026). Corpus Christi liquefaction project. https://www.cheniere.com/about/where-we-work/ccl* FDA panel recommends Moderna’s mRNA flu shot for older adults. (2026). NBC News. https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/fda-panel-recommends-modernas-mrna-flu-shot-older-adults-rcna350699* FedEx. (2026). FedEx Board of Directors approves spin-off of FedEx Freight [Investor news]. https://investors.fedex.com/news-and-events/investor-news/investor-news-details/2026/FedEx-Board-of-Directors-Approves-Spin-off-of-FedEx-Freight/default.aspx* FXLeaders. (2026, June 19). Micron earnings preview: MU stock faces key test as earnings approach. https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2026/06/19/micron-earnings-preview-mu-stock-faces-key-test-as-earnings-approach-after-strong-rally/* Micron sold out of 2026 HBM. (2026, June 19). Yahoo Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/micron-sold-2026-hbm-us-231248051.html* Micron Technology (MU) price target. (2026, June 19). Yahoo Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/micron-technology-mu-price-target-011038074.html* Micron Technology (MU) wins HBM4 for Nvidia Vera Rubin. (2026, June 19). Yahoo Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/micron-technology-mu-wins-hbm4-211205119.html* Micron Technology: HBM sold out for 2026 — Wall Street is still underpricing. (2026, June 19). Seeking Alpha. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4881338-micron-technology-hbm-sold-out-for-2026-wall-street-is-still-underpricing* Nike China guidance reset. (2026). AInvest. https://www.ainvest.com/news/nike-china-guidance-reset-term-pain-confirms-deep-rooted-inventory-demand-headwinds-2604/* Nike stock 2026: NKE turnaround analysis. (2026). Top1Markets. https://www.top1markets.com/news/nike-stock-2026-nke-turnaround-analysis-elliott-hill* Sabine Pass LNG expansion contract. (2026). Simply Wall St. https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/energy/nyse-lng/cheniere-energy/news/sabine-pass-lng-expansion-contract-might-change-the-case-for* STAT Times. (2026). FedEx to reduce cost by $1bn in FY2026; net income drops 5% in FY2025. https://www.stattimes.com/air-cargo/fedex-to-reduce-cost-by-1bn-in-fy2026-net-income-drops-5-in-fy2025-1355655* Supply Chain Dive. (2026). Nike’s $1.5B tariff hit and sourcing shift. https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/nike-1b-tariff-sourcing-price-hikes/752159/* The end of cheap memory: Why 2026 marks a structural shift in tech economics. (2026, June 19). Investing.com. https://www.investing.com/analysis/the-end-of-cheap-memory-why-2026-marks-a-structural-shift-in-tech-economics-200675634* The Register. (2026, June 17). Intel starts cooking up enhanced 18A-P silicon for would-be foundry customers. https://www.theregister.com/systems/2026/06/17/intel-starts-cooking-up-enhanced-18a-p-silicon-for-would-be-foundry-customers/5257487* Timothy Sykes. (2026, June 17). Moderna Inc. (MRNA) news. https://www.timothysykes.com/news/moderna-inc-mrna-news-2026_06_17/* US tells ASML it is concerned China may have top chip tool. (2026, June 19). Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-19/us-tells-asml-it-s-concerned-china-may-have-top-chip-tool* Utility Dive. (2026). GE Vernova bullish on electrical infrastructure as turbine backlog grows. https://www.utilitydive.com/news/ge-vernova-bullish-on-electrical-infrastructure-as-turbine-backlog-grows/803631/* Utility Dive. (2026). GE Vernova expects to end 2025 with an 80 GW gas turbine backlog that stretches into 2029. https://www.utilitydive.com/news/ge-vernova-expects-to-end-2025-with-an-80-gw-gas-turbine-backlog-that-stretches-into-2029/807662/* Vertex Pharmaceuticals. (2026). Vertex announces US FDA acceptance of biologics license application for povetacicept [Press release]. https://news.vrtx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/vertex-announces-us-fda-acceptance-biologics-license-application* Yahoo Finance. (2026). Intel bets on 18A, Xeon 6. https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/intel-bets-18a-xeon-6-070403655.htmlInternal dataInternal data is provided on a best efforts basis.Forward earnings* FDX — FedEx, 2026-06-23 (Tuesday) AMC, fiscal Q4 2026. Consensus EPS 5.91 / revenue $24.04B. Earnings calendar.* MU — Micron, 2026-06-24 (Wednesday) AMC, fiscal Q3 2026. (Consensus columns unreliable this week; report date verified.) Earnings calendar.* NKE — Nike, 2026-06-30 (Tuesday) AMC, fiscal Q4 2026. Consensus EPS 0.11 / revenue $10.85B. Earnings calendar.Hiring intelligence (Talnexis)* MU — Micron #3 hiring floor (3,061 open roles, +181 in the 7-day window), detected 2026-06-19. Source: Talnexis hiring intelligence, https://www.talnexis.com/ This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

All three hosts in one room: a macro tour through oil, gas and a new Fed chair, then a deep dive on NVIDIA at $5 trillion, the software stack’s capex problem, and the Anthropic export-control fight that turns proprietary data into the next moat.The Cashflow MemoKey Takeaways* Macro (Hunt’s exhibits): Oil sits ~$80 heading toward $70 (vs $60 on its way to $50 when the Iran event started), with backwardation compressing to under $10; natural gas averages ~$3.50 across both ’26 and ’27. New Fed chair Kevin Warsh signaled aggressive balance-sheet runoff (~$750B/yr toward a target near $1.5T) and a possible bias to hike — a lot of paper for the market to absorb against a ~$1.5T deficit.* NVIDIA at ~$5T is turning into a value stock: free cash flow on a $200-250B run-rate by year-end (vs a record ~$160B). The bull case has shifted from the chip cycle to TAM expansion — server → rack → row → full reference data-center design, an x86-killer CPU, and direct buildouts for cash-rich non-hyperscalers like Eli Lilly (~$20B FCF), Exxon/Chevron, and Citadel — though AI capex at ~3% of GDP raises a law-of-large-numbers ceiling on incremental budget growth.* Software dispersion is about capex risk: Salesforce screens cheap at ~18x FCF because it owns its own data centers and will likely have to deploy GPUs (capex rising from ~zero), while ServiceNow trades >50x renting AWS; Snowflake stays cash-light on heavy SBC but saw NRR re-accelerate on ~30% revenue growth as its AI product (chat over enterprise data) ramps.* The Anthropic throughline: a cyber-capable model released to ~40 entities (JPMorgan et al.), Amazon/Jassy lobbying Washington for export controls, the guardrailed Fable version jailbroken within two days, and distillation risk from Tencent/Alibaba (~1 year behind). The hosts read Jassy’s move as AWS self-protection, not public spirit — AWS was almost certainly one of the 40.* AI economics as a J-curve, proprietary data as the new moat: OpenAI/Anthropic head public with no profits against massive compute rent; the tell to watch is the end of the subsidized-token era (Uber/Lyft tripled fares post-IPO once VC subsidies ended). Microsoft blocked Anthropic’s models internally after a ToS change let Anthropic capture and train on user prompts (i.e., customer code) — a breach of trust that makes walled-off hosting (Citadel on Google) the real battleground.Show Notes[00:00] Intro & this week’s Cash Flow Memo Mike sets up the episode and points listeners to the memo at telltales.us.[00:26] Exhibits A/B/C — Oil, Gas & the Fed Hunt’s five minutes: oil $80 toward $70 with backwardation under $10, nat gas ~$3.50 across ’26-’27, and new Fed chair Kevin Warsh signaling balance-sheet runoff and a possible hike bias.[04:37] Apple & Snap — foldables, camera AirPods, AR glasses Apple’s underwhelming conference (a 2028 foldable, AirPods with cameras) versus Snap’s see-through AR glasses and why Meta’s audio-only glasses are the best product today.[07:30] Why Amazon called Washington on Anthropic Anthropic’s cyber-capable model, the limited release to ~40 entities, and the hosts’ read that Jassy’s export-control push is AWS self-protection.[10:53] Jailbreaking the guardrails & the China distillation risk The Fable guardrailed version cracked in two days, and why Tencent/Alibaba stay roughly a year behind.[13:46] What is SpaceX worth? — AI’s J-curve to profits SpaceX public and +30%, OpenAI/Anthropic going public with no profits, and how to think about revenue growth that costs enormous compute.[15:44] The end of the subsidized-token era Jason’s Uber/Lyft analogy: cheap VC-funded tokens today, tripled rates after the IPO.[16:11] Microsoft’s per-seat agent bet Why fixed price-per-seat plus usage upside is the right model for a slow-moving enterprise base, and the job-displacement question.[18:54] Software dispersion — Salesforce, ServiceNow & Snowflake Salesforce at 18x FCF and a coming GPU capex bill, ServiceNow renting AWS, and Snowflake’s NRR re-acceleration.[21:34] Oracle, Broadcom & NVIDIA at $5 trillion Oracle and Broadcom’s pivots, then NVIDIA as a record-FCF value stock.[24:45] NVIDIA’s next TAM — racks, rows, x86 & selling direct From server to full reference data-center design, going after the x86 CPU market, and building private clouds for enterprises.[25:53] Healthcare & the cash-flow hunt — Lilly, Exxon/Chevron, Citadel NVIDIA chasing free-cash-flow-rich customers: Lilly’s walled-off AI buildout, oil majors, and Citadel’s Google deal.[29:48] Proprietary data as the new moat Microsoft blocks Anthropic’s models after a ToS change to capture and train on customer prompts — a breach of trust.[32:31] Next week & sign-off A teed-up deep dive on protecting proprietary data: defense versus offense, and whether anything can truly be walled off.If these conversations have earned a place in your week, send the show to one person who’d genuinely enjoy it. Download the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us.Cashtags$AAPL $AMZN $AVGO $BABA $CRM $CVX $GOOGL $JPM $LLY $LYFT $META $MSFT $NOW $NVDA $ORCL $SNAP $SNOW $TSM $UBER $XOM This post and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

For the first time in four years, there’s no new Telltales episode this week.The one week all three of us were finally in the same city — Hunt, Jason, and Mike, in one room in New York instead of scattered across two coasts — the recording gremlins picked their moment. The primary recording failed partway through. There’s a backup, and we’re actively working to recover it.So here’s the plan: if we recover the audio, this week’s episode lands in your feed the moment it’s clean. If we don’t, no harm done — Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back in the chair next Wednesday, and Ava is back with the Weekend Update on Saturday.While you wait, this week’s Cash Flow Memo is below. And if these conversations have earned a place in your week, send the show to one person who’d genuinely enjoy it. Almost all of our growth has come from listeners doing exactly that — and we don’t take a single recommendation for granted.This post and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.The Cashflow Memo This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down →Good News, Sold: The AI Buildout’s First Bill Came DueEvery capital cycle has the same tell. It is not the day the spending stops. It is the day the market stops clapping for it — when a company does exactly what it promised and the stock falls anyway. This week the most expensive trade on earth hit that day three times.Oracle delivered the backlog it told everyone it would deliver. A six-hundred-thirty-eight-billion-dollar pile of contracted future revenue, up more than three-and-a-half times in a year.¹ Cloud infrastructure revenue up ninety-three percent.² It did the thing. The stock fell ten percent.³For two years the AI trade was a referendum on demand: is it real, how big, how fast. The bull won that argument. So the market moved the goalposts, the way it always does at this point in a buildout — from is the demand there to who pays to meet it, and what does the bill do to the balance sheet carrying it. Bill Maris said the quiet part on All-In this week: a trillion dollars of spend commitments sitting on sixty billion of revenue, and now you go to the public markets and hope retail picks up the difference.⁴ That is the bear case in one sentence. Three names walked straight into it this week, and the interesting part is that each of them is paying the bill a different way.Oracle is borrowing it. Trailing free cash flow is already negative — they spent the better part of fifty billion dollars on capex to build the capacity behind that backlog, and the money to fund the next leg is coming out of the debt market into a tape that has stopped rewarding capital plans.⁵ NextEra is diluting for it. The biggest bet in the history of regulated utilities — a sixty-seven-billion-dollar, all-stock takeover of Dominion, built explicitly to wire thirty gigawatts of data-center power by twenty-thirty-five, Google and Meta already signed.⁶ All-stock is the tell. A utility already carrying sixteen times debt to free cash flow cannot borrow its way to the biggest deal in its sector’s history, so it is paying with equity and handing the cost to the shareholder it already has.⁷ The stock fell nine percent.⁸ Micron is the one name pre-selling it: its entire next fiscal year of high-bandwidth memory is already spoken for, certified into Nvidia’s roadmap, the demand contracted before the capacity ships.⁹Three funding strategies — debt, equity, pre-sold demand — and one underlying wager: that AI demand is durable enough to convert all of it to cash before the interest comes due. The cashflow read is in Marcus’s column below; short version, two of these three have no multiple to quote because the denominator is still negative. Page one of the Cash Flow Memo this week is a capex ledger, not an earnings sheet.This is what the back half of a capital cycle looks like, and it rhymes. The railroads, the fiber glut, the shale decade — the capital cycle never turns when the building stops. It turns when the market stops paying for the announcement and starts pricing the lag between the spend and the cash. The demand did not get worse this week. The accounting for it did.The next data point is dated. Micron reports Wednesday the twenty-fourth.¹⁰ On the screen it trades at a hundred times trailing free cash flow, which sounds insane and tells you nothing — that is trough cash flow at the bottom of a memory cycle. Price it forward and consensus has it at a single-digit multiple of next year’s earnings,¹¹ with trailing cash flow already up more than five-fold off the low.¹² The test is not the headline print. It is whether the forward demand the whole buildout is leaning on shows up in one company’s order book. If Micron’s guide confirms, the bill looks affordable. If it wobbles, the cycle just got more expensive for all three.Wall Street’s consensus on the AI buildout: too crowded, too expensive, too late. The stocks fell this week not because the demand soured — because the market finally started counting the cost. That is not the top. That is the capital cycle clearing its throat.The Tape — W2624Universe of 94 cashflow-memo names, snap dates 2026-06-05 → 2026-06-15. Composite is rank-sum percentile of FCF Yield + NTM Revenue Growth (higher = better balance). Banks and finance-book names shown separately.Telltales Yield — Top 10From the Cashflow Desk — Marcus GrahamHealthcare spent the week getting repriced by Washington, and the screens are tarring the whole sector with one brush. Regeneron is the name that brush gets wrong. It sits near the top of the board at 11.3x EV/FCF on an 8.8% free cash flow yield — cheaper than UnitedHealth, with no federal prosecutor auditing the numerator. That is the distinction the table cannot draw: UNH’s cash engine is the thing the DOJ is investigating; Regeneron’s is a drug franchise nobody has subpoenaed. Same sector, same de-rate, two completely different reasons for the cheap — one is cheap because the cash might be fiction, the other because it shares a GICS code with the one that might be. The test on the next print is whether biosimilar pressure on the franchise shows up in the cash line, or the de-rate was just guilt by association.Telltales Yield — Bottom 10This Week’s ReportersSector MediansDebt / FCF Watch (highest leverage on TTM FCF)Weekly Price MovementTop 5 (week-over-week price) Bottom 5 (week-over-week price) Banks (shown separately — FCF metric not meaningful)Finance-book — FCF not comparableCustomer-float / captive-finance / reserve businesses (IBKR broker float, KMX CarMax Auto Finance, PYPL customer funds, CRCL stablecoin reserves). The memo’s operating-FCF method overstates their FCF, so they are held off the ranked leaderboard pending the P&L-waterfall rebuild. Data Gaps90 of 90 ranked-eligible names ranked. 0 dropped for missing FCF yield or NTM revenue growth; 7 shown separately (banks + finance-book, FCF not comparable).Source: cashflow-memo master_2026-06-15.csv. NTM growth from FMP analyst-estimates consensus. Composite is a percentile rank, not a recommendation.The Issue — This Week's BriefThe Cashflow MemoWhen Cheap Stopped Being SafeThe week being cheap stopped being safe, and the AI buildout kept spending anyway.The Telltales Weekend Update. Ava Cabot and analyst Marcus Graham walk through what happened this week — and what’s coming next — across the universe of the Cash Flow Memo. About 13 minutes. No filler.Download the memo at telltales.us. Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode 2625.Chapter markers* Time | Segment* 0:15 | Cold open* 0:55 | Theme — the AI buildout’s bill: Oracle, NextEra, Micron* 5:10 | Deep dive — UnitedHealth vs CarMax* 9:25 | Rapid-fire — Moderna, Intel* 11:30 | Close + Consensus WatchFull transcriptOpening disclaimerAva: The following conversation is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you.Cold openAva: You’re listening to the Telltales Weekend Update. I’m Ava Cabot.Marcus: And I’m Marcus Graham — the cashflow desk.Ava: Quick note: the show is produced entirely with AI tools, and both voices you’re hearing are AI-generated. Send feedback through the Substack. We’re still early — this is a pilot, and we want to hear what’s working.Ava: Here’s the week. Being cheap stopped being safe. The cheapest large-cap in healthcare spent the week with a federal prosecutor at the door. The retail name everyone screens as cheap is being handed customers by a tariff. And while the market was busy repricing the cheap stuff, the most expensive trade on earth — the AI buildout — just kept writing bigger and bigger checks, and got punished for it anyway. On Wednesday’s main show, episode 2624, Hunt, Jason, and Mike worked through the economics of that buildout — the data centers, and the sheer physics of powering them.[^ep-e2624] We’re going to put the cashflow lens on the bill. Because this was the week the bill started showing up in three different places at once.Theme — the AI buildout’s billAva: Start with the most expensive trade in the market, because this week it got complicated. For two years the AI story was demand — is it real, how big, how fast. This week the question flipped to cost. Who delivers it, who powers it, and whose balance sheet carries it. And here’s the contrarian note hanging over the whole thing: as Bill Maris put it on All-In this week, quote, a trillion in spend commitments on $60 billion of revenue, and now you’re going to go to the public and hope that retail is going to pick that up.[^tp-maris-allin-20260609] Hold that thought. Because three companies just tested it.Ava: Start with Oracle, because it did exactly what it promised and got punished for it. It delivered the backlog it said it would — and the stock fell 10% anyway.[^orcl-stock-20260610] Page 2 of the memo: remaining performance obligations hit a record $638 billion, up 363% year over year.[^orcl-rpo-20260610] Cloud infrastructure revenue up 93%.[^orcl-oci-growth-20260610] They did the thing. Marcus — why did doing the thing get them sold?Marcus: Because the market stopped grading the backlog and started grading the bill. Oracle’s trailing free cash flow is negative — minus $21 billion[^memo-orcl-fcf-20260615] — because they spent $48 billion on capex over the last year to build the capacity behind that backlog.[^memo-orcl-capex-20260615] So there’s no multiple to quote. Don’t reach for one; it’s a negative number. What prices Oracle now is one question: does $638 billion of contracted intent convert to cash before the interest on the build eats them. They raised the capital plan into a tape that no longer claps for capital plans. Maris’s line is the bear case in one sentence — and Oracle just walked straight into it.Ava: So next door, the power bill. NextEra just made the biggest bet in the history of regulated utilities — and got the same treatment Oracle did. A $67 billion, all-stock takeover of Dominion Energy, the largest regulated-utility deal ever, built explicitly to power AI data centers — 30 GW of it by 2035, with Google and Meta already signed on.[^nee-dominion-acquisition-20260610][^nee-datacenters-expansion-20260615] The stock fell 9%.[^nee-stock-decline-20260610] Marcus, what does the grid cost?Marcus: It costs more than NextEra has. This is a utility that already carries 16x debt to free cash flow[^memo-nee-debtfcf-20260615] — and it’s buying the biggest deal in the sector’s history. They’re paying in stock, not debt, which is the tell: they’re funding the buildout by diluting, because the balance sheet can’t borrow its way there at 41x free cash flow.[^memo-nee-evfcf-20260615] The 9% drop isn’t the market rejecting data-center power. It’s the market asking who eats the cost of building it — and deciding, this week, that the answer is the existing shareholder.Ava: And the third bill is memory, where Wall Street has completely lost its composure. Micron, page 5, reports a week from Wednesday — and ahead of it, price targets went from $550 to $1,750 in a matter of days.[^mu-pt-raise-20260608][^mu-analyst-targets-20260610] Micron got certified for Nvidia’s next-generation HBM4 memory, and its entire fiscal-year production is already spoken for.[^mu-hbm4-cert-20260610] One more tell you won’t see in the price: the Talnexis hiring tracker shows Micron added 200 roles last week, hiring at full-cycle pace.[^tlnx-mu-hiring-20260615] Marcus, the stock screens at 100x cash flow — is that insane?Marcus: It looks insane and it isn’t, and that’s the whole trick with memory. The 100x figure is trailing free cash flow at the bottom of the cycle[^memo-mu-evfcf-20260615] — it tells you nothing. Price it forward: consensus earnings put Micron at about 7x next fiscal year.[^mu-fwd-pe-20260615] Trailing cash flow is already up more than 5x off the trough, and revenue is guided to grow 60%+.[^memo-mu-fcf-20260615] You don’t value a cyclical on a trough multiple; you value it on where the cash is going — and forward, this is a single-digit multiple. The risk isn’t the price. The risk is that the whole supercycle thesis — Oracle’s backlog, NextEra’s gigawatts, Micron’s HBM — is one connected bet that the AI demand is durable. Three names, one wager. The print on the 24th is the next data point on whether it holds.Deep dive — UnitedHealth vs CarMaxAva: Now the other half of the market — the cheap half. Two companies, both trading at single-digit-ish multiples, both cheap for a reason, and the reasons could not be more opposite. One is being investigated by the government for charging too much. The other is being handed customers by the government’s tariffs. Same week, two service businesses, two completely different verdicts on what cheap means.Ava: Here are the headlines, side by side. UnitedHealth, all the way back on page 19 of the memo: the CEO, Andrew Witty, resigned; the company pulled its full-year guidance; and the Justice Department opened a criminal and civil probe into whether it inflated Medicare diagnoses to juice reimbursements.[^unh-ceo-resignation-20260615][^unh-guidance-pull-20260615][^unh-doj-probe-20260615] The stock is down about a third from its high.[^unh-stock-recovery-20260615] And CarMax, page 8, reports Wednesday — first print under a new CEO, with an activist on the register, into a tariff backdrop that’s pushing buyers out of new cars and straight onto its lots.[^kmx-cfo-transition-20260615][^kmx-activist-20260615][^kmx-tariffs-20260615] Marcus — which kind of cheap actually pays you?Marcus: Take the scary one first. UnitedHealth trades at 14x trailing free cash flow, a 7% yield.[^memo-unh-evfcf-20260615] On the screen that’s the cheapest quality compounder in the market. Here’s the problem: the thing generating the cash is exactly what the DOJ is investigating. The free cash flow comes from Medicare Advantage billing, and a federal prosecutor is now asking whether that billing was fraudulent.[^unh-doj-probe-20260615] So you’re not buying 14x earnings. You’re buying 14x a number that’s under subpoena. Cheap doesn’t help you when the regulator is auditing the numerator.Ava: And yet the stock just rebounded almost back to its high. Make that make sense.Marcus: It doesn’t, and that’s the tell. In the same two weeks the probe widened, six different shops raised their price targets — and Bank of America went the other way and cut it to neutral.[^unh-analyst-upgrade-20260615][^unh-bofa-downgrade-20260615] So the sell-side is openly split on the same name in the same fortnight. That’s not a market pricing a verdict. It’s a market pricing a coin flip on whether a federal probe breaks the cash engine or just dents it. When the analysts can’t agree which, the multiple isn’t cheap — it’s unresolved.Ava: So UnitedHealth’s cheap is a question mark. What’s CarMax’s cheap?Marcus: Cheaper on the screen than in the business. Price CarMax on earnings and it’s a mid-teens multiple — about 15x forward,[^kmx-fwd-pe-20260615] a normal retailer, not a coiled spring. So the bet was never the multiple. It’s the setup: tariffs added thousands of dollars to new-car prices, used demand is the spillover, and there’s an activist pushing the new CEO to convert it.[^kmx-tariffs-20260615] The test on Wednesday is one number — used unit volume. If that’s accelerating, the multiple re-rates. If it’s flat, it’s just a tired retailer at 15x.Ava: So one cheap stock where the earnings might be fiction, and one that’s barely cheap once you do the math. Marcus, ever the optimist.Marcus: I deal in denominators. But the asymmetry is real: UnitedHealth’s downside is a business model the government breaks; CarMax’s downside is a soft quarter. One is binary. The other is just cyclical. Same word — cheap — two completely different bets.Ava: Mark the calendar. Wednesday tells us which one.Rapid-fireAva: Two more to close, both moving fast.Ava: Moderna got a different kind of government attention — the bad kind. Health and Human Services terminated a $590 million contract for Moderna’s bird-flu vaccine, and cancelled 22 more mRNA research contracts across the board, under the new RFK Jr. vaccine policy.[^mrna-barda-birdfly-20260610][^mrna-barda-platform-shift-20260610] There’s an FDA advisory meeting Wednesday on an mRNA flu shot.[^mrna-fda-advisory-20260618] This is the same theme as UnitedHealth from the other direction — Washington isn’t just regulating healthcare this year, it’s picking which platforms live. mRNA just got told it’s on the wrong list.Ava: And Intel — remember Intel? Up 250% this year, and almost nobody noticed.[^intc-ytdperformance-20260615] The catalyst this week: Google committed more than 3 million of its TPU chips to Intel’s foundry for 2028, pulling that order away from Taiwan Semi.[^intc-google-tpu-20260608] Bank of America double-upgraded the stock straight from sell to buy.[^intc-bofaupgrade-20260611] After a decade of being the company the buildout left behind, Intel spent this week being the company the buildout came back to.CloseAva: That’s the show. Wall Street’s consensus this week: UnitedHealth is a falling knife, and the AI infrastructure names are crowded. One of those is wrong, and it’s the one nobody wants to touch. Here’s the throughline into Monday: being cheap stopped being safe this week, because the thing setting the price wasn’t the business — it was the government on one side and the buildout’s bill on the other. UnitedHealth at 14x with a prosecutor. CarMax at mid-teens with a tariff at its back. Oracle, NextEra, and Micron spending into the doubt. Cheap got cheaper, expensive kept spending, and the market spent the week deciding it doesn’t trust either one. The hiring data we cited on Micron is from Talnexis — talnexis.com. You can pull up the Cash Flow Memo yourself at telltales.us. The forward week is loaded: CarMax reports Wednesday, FedEx the following Tuesday in its first quarter as a pure-play after spinning off freight,[^earn-fdx] and Micron Wednesday the 24th.[^earn-mu] And Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode 2625. We’ll see you next Saturday.Closing disclaimerAva: The views expressed on this podcast are the host alone and do not constitute an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the host nor any of their employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of this information. The host and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future, and may or may not hold positions in the securities mentioned.Sources* Applied Clinical Trials Online. (2026, June). HHS cancellation of BARDA mRNA vaccine trial. https://www.appliedclinicaltrialsonline.com/view/hhs-cancellation-barda-mrna-vaccine-trial-design-oversight-funding* Bank of America via TipRanks. (2026, June). UnitedHealth downgraded to Neutral at BofA amid Medicare Advantage uncertainty. https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/unitedhealth-downgraded-to-neutral-at-bofa-amid-ma-uncertainty* Converge Digest. (2026, June 10). Oracle’s AI infrastructure business drives 93% IaaS growth. https://convergedigest.com/oracles-ai-infrastructure-business-drives-93-iaas-growth/* Cryptonomist. (2026, June 4). UnitedHealth stock stalls near $377 as lawsuit risk returns. https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2026/06/04/unitedhealth-stock-stalls-near-377-as-lawsuit-risk-returns/* eciks.org. (2026, June 10). NextEra Energy to acquire Dominion Energy in $67 billion all-stock transaction. https://eciks.org/8282-85162-dominion-energy-nextera-67-billion-merger* eMarketer. (2026, June). Auto tariffs are an opportunity for used car dealers. https://www.emarketer.com/content/auto-tariffs-opportunity-used-car-dealers* Fierce Healthcare. (2026, June). DOJ’s criminal probe into UnitedHealth extends to Optum Rx. https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/payers/wsj-report-doj-interviewing-former-employees-about-medicare-billing-practices-unitedhealth* GuruFocus. (2026, June 10). NextEra Energy (NEE) shares decline amid Dominion Energy acquisition. https://www.gurufocus.com/news/8910473/nextera-energy-nee-shares-decline-amid-dominion-energy-acquisition* HeyGo Trade. (2026, June). Intel up 250% in 2026: Is the AI comeback real or a short squeeze? https://www.heygotrade.com/en/blog/intel-stock-2026-ai-comeback/* IndMoney. (2026, June 10). Oracle Q4 FY2026 earnings: Why ORCL stock fell 10% despite a strong beat. https://www.indmoney.com/blog/us-stocks/oracle-q4-fy-2026-earnings-orcl-stock-drop* Interactive Crypto. (2026, June 9). Micron jumps as HBM4 certification and a Wells Fargo $1,220 target reset the narrative. https://www.interactivecrypto.com/micron-jumps-9-9-as-hbm4-certification-and-a-wells-fargo-1-220-target-reset-the-narrative-jun-20* Maris, B. (2026, June 9). Bill Maris: How Google could crush AI competitors, why small funds win, and AI’s Atari stage [Video]. All-In Podcast, YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0umrMuUClC4* MEXC Learn. (2026, May 27–June 8). Wall Street upgraded UNH six times in two weeks (JPMorgan $466, Bernstein $492). https://www.mexc.com/learn/article/wall-street-upgraded-unh-six-times-in-two-weeks-can-unitedhealth-stock-hit-492-unh-price-target-2026-2030/1* The Motley Fool. (2026, June 10). Oracle just revealed a massive $638 billion backlog. Here’s why the stock fell anyway. https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/06/10/oracle-just-revealed-a-massive-638-billion-backlog/* PharmAphorum. (2026, June). UnitedHealth CEO Andrew Witty steps down. https://pharmaphorum.com/news/unitedhealth-ceo-andrew-witty-steps-down* Simply Wall St News. (2026, June). Why CarMax (KMX) is up 8.1% after rising optimism around its 2026 earnings report. https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/retail/nyse-kmx/carmax/news/why-carmax-kmx-is-up-81-after-rising-optimism-around-its-202* TheStreet. (2026, June). Intel stock: BofA raises price target to $135 | INTC. https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/intc-intel-stock-price-target-bank-of-america-june-2026* Timothy Sykes News. (2026, June). CarMax (KMX) draws activist interest as traders eye earnings. https://www.timothysykes.com/news/carmax-inc-kmx-news-2026_06_03/* U.S. Food and Drug Administration. (2026, June 18). Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee June 18, 2026 meeting announcement. https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-june-18-2026-meeting-announcement* U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. (2026). UnitedHealth Group, Form 8-K, Q1 2026. https://www.sec.gov/* Vantage Markets. (2026, June 9). Intel stock up 11%: INTC jumps on Google’s 3M AI chip deal. https://www.vantagemarkets.com/market-analysis/intel-stock-price-analysis-june-9-2026/* Yahoo Finance. (2026, June). NextEra (NEE) anticipates adding up to 30 gigawatts of power for data centers by 2035. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nextera-nee-anticipates-adding-30-104711159.htmlHiring intelligence* Talnexis. (2026, June 15). Hiring intelligence — Micron (200 new roles in 7 days, #9 hiring-velocity mover). https://www.talnexis.com/Internal dataInternal data is provided on a best efforts basis.Forward earnings (FMP)* KMX — 2026-06-17 (Wednesday), Q1 FY27. FMP /stable/earnings?symbol=KMX, pulled 2026-06-15.* FDX — 2026-06-23 (Tuesday), Q4 FY26 (first pure-play print post freight spin-off). FMP /stable/earnings?symbol=FDX, pulled 2026-06-15.* MU — 2026-06-24 (Wednesday), Q3 FY26, consensus EPS $19.96 / revenue $34.72B. FMP /stable/earnings?symbol=MU, pulled 2026-06-15.* MU forward P/E ≈6.9x — FY ending 2027-08-28 consensus EPS $108.83 (21 analysts) vs price $746.79. FMP analyst estimates (annual), pulled 2026-06-15.* KMX forward P/E ≈15x — FY ending 2027-02-28 EPS $2.35 (17.2x) / FY 2028-02-28 EPS $2.85 (14.2x) vs price $40.34. FMP analyst estimates (annual), pulled 2026-06-15. This is a public episode. 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Hunt, Jason, and Mike work through an oil market frozen by the US-Iran standoff, then spend the back half stress-testing SpaceX’s ~$2 trillion valuation against Tesla’s — landing on data centers in orbit and a chronic compute shortage as the load-bearing assumptions. Plus Apple’s WWDC miss, the software disruption map, and a strong week of healthcare data.The Cashflow MemoKey Takeaways* Hunt’s working case: if the US-Iran standoff just persists, oil sits near $90 twelve months out despite deep backwardation (mid-$90s spot vs mid-$70s forward); the casualty is natural gas, because roughly two-thirds of dry-gas supply growth is Permian associated gas, so a higher oil price pumps more gas and keeps gas pricing weak.* Exhibit A is the macro tail risk: holding public-debt-to-GNP under 100% requires keeping the deficit flat-to-declining near $1.5T even with higher defense spend — a developed-world problem (Japan is ~180%), not just a US one, and the thing that most threatens the credit markets.* SpaceX’s ~$2T valuation only pencils on space-based data centers: 150kW micro-satellites (one NVL72-rack equivalent, Nvidia silicon, in-sourced solar), a ~1 GW launch cadence targeted by year-end, ~170 Starship launches per gigawatt (a launch every other day) off a 20-30 ship fleet. At ~$20B FCF per deployed gigawatt, ~$100B FCF — a 5% cash yield — looks more reachable for SpaceX than for Tesla at $1.4T, which needs robotaxi plus humanoids to get there.* Compute scarcity is the load-bearing assumption under both bets: xAI’s ~$20B Colossus buildout in Memphis is already leasing capacity to Anthropic and Google at ~$25B of revenue — a near one-year payback that shows how acute the shortage is. The safer, cheaper derivative on chronic compute shortage remains Nvidia.* AI has collapsed the cost to write software but not to support or design it: as the agent becomes the hub, Apple looks exposed (a second straight underwhelming Siri at WWDC, starting to look like IBM or Intel), while horizontal incumbents like Salesforce and ServiceNow can expand share and consumption-priced models gain over seat-based ones. In healthcare, Lilly’s triple-agonist retatrutide showed dramatic weight loss with less muscle loss, plus a gene-therapy LDL result, and Revolution Medicines tripled survival duration in pancreatic cancer by hitting targets long thought undruggable.Show Notes[00:00] Intro: The Cash Flow Memo Mike opens the weekly walk through energy, technology, and healthcare. Download the memo at telltales.us.[00:52] Oil, Iran, and Why Gas Stays Weak With supply off ~2.5-3M bbl/d and the Iran embargo likely to persist, Hunt sees oil near $90 a year out despite heavy backwardation — and natural gas as the casualty, since Permian associated gas grows with oil.[04:24] Exhibit A: The Deficit and the Credit Markets Keeping public-debt-to-GNP under 100% means holding the deficit near $1.5T even with higher defense spend. A developed-world problem, not just a US one.[05:32] SpaceX vs Tesla: Which $2T Bet? Google’s ~$80B equity raise and the SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic financings frame the question: is SpaceX at $2T or Tesla at $1.4T the more defensible valuation?[06:57] Data Centers in Space: The Economics 150kW micro-satellites the size of an Nvidia NVL72 rack, in-sourced solar, ~1 GW launch cadence by year-end — and a deployed cost on par with land, minus the 3-7 year build cycle.[12:30] 170 Launches a Gigawatt: The Physics The hard part is mass to orbit: ~170 Starship launches per gigawatt, a launch every other day, on an 18-hour turnaround across a 20-30 ship fleet. At ~$20B FCF per GW, $100B FCF becomes conceivable by ~2028.[15:43] Colossus, Compute Scarcity, and Nvidia xAI’s ~$20B Memphis buildout now leases to Anthropic and Google at ~$25B revenue — a one-year payback that proves how short compute is. The cheaper, safer derivative is Nvidia.[17:22] Apple’s WWDC Miss and the Agent-as-Hub Threat A second straight underwhelming Siri. If the agent becomes the hub for your data, the device is just a screen — and Apple, staked on privacy, is letting the opportunity pass. Starting to look like IBM or Intel.[20:32] Enterprise Software: Horizontal Wins, Vertical Fragile AI made writing software trivial, not supporting it. Token budgets fold into the software budget; horizontal incumbents (Salesforce, ServiceNow) expand, vertical and seat-based models get fragile, and consumption pricing wins.[23:47] Healthcare: Lilly, Gene Therapy, and Pancreatic Cancer Lilly’s triple-agonist retatrutide (less muscle loss) and a gene-therapy LDL result, Mayo’s AI-assisted earlier pancreatic-cancer detection, and Revolution Medicines tripling survival on previously undruggable targets.[26:03] Wrap-Up Possibly back next week on how SpaceX trades in the aftermarket. Get the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us.Cashtags$AAPL $CRM $GOOGL $INTC $LLY $MSFT $NOW $NVDA $RVMD $TSLA This post and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

▶ Explore this week’s Tape — live, sortable, drill-down →Even the Cash Machines Are Borrowing NowThe story this week was not that the AI build is expensive. Everyone knew that. The story was that the companies best equipped to pay for it out of their own pockets stopped doing so — three of them, in the same five trading days.Alphabet, which had not sold a share of stock since its IPO, raised about eighty-five billion dollars in equity to fund its data-center build, with Berkshire Hathaway taking ten billion of it directly (per CNBC).¹ Meta, which did not need a dime, was reported to be lining up a raise of its own — and shed almost seven percent on Friday on the rumor alone (per Bloomberg).² Apple, on page one of the same Cash Flow Memo, did the one thing nobody else in the arms race is doing: it rented.Take the first one, because it is the one with thirty years of history behind it.A company funds its capital spending out of its own cash flow right up until the build outgrows the cash flow. The day it reaches for outside money is the day the build stopped paying for itself. Alphabet’s trailing free cash flow fell about forty-four percent year over year — the capex ate it — so they sold stock.³ The company that described itself as the asset-light, capital-light compounder for two decades just issued eighty-five billion dollars of equity to buy data centers. Asset-light.The cashflow read is in Marcus’s column below — short version: at roughly seventy times trailing free cash flow, this is now a capital-intensive company that happens to own a search engine.⁴But the tell this week was not Alphabet alone. It was the synchronization. Meta still throws off about fifty billion dollars of trailing free cash flow, still growing north of twenty percent, and trades at thirty-two times — the cheapest large-cap cash machine on the board.⁵⁶ When the best-capitalized company in a sector decides it wants a financing cushion anyway, that is not a statement about that company. It is a statement about the size of the build.We have watched real demand get financed externally before. The late-nineties fiber boom funded a build the internet genuinely needed — and the companies laying the cable raised equity and debt into the same thesis at the same moment. The capacity got used. A decade later. The financing peak and the equity peak landed in the same window, and the build being right did not save the multiple. The lesson was never that the demand was fake. It was that synchronized external financing is what a capital cycle looks like at its most expensive, not its cheapest.Which is what makes Apple the sharpest line on the page. Apple pays Google roughly a billion dollars a year to run the next Siri on Gemini rather than train a frontier model itself — less than one percent of the hundred-twenty-nine billion dollars in free cash flow it generates annually.⁷⁸ Everyone else is spending a hundred times that and selling stock to do it. Dilute, borrow, or rent: only one of the three costs the shareholder nothing.So the demand side is now financed. What gets tested next is absorption — whether the capacity fills before the financing cycle turns. The first data point lands Wednesday after the close, when Oracle reports against a backlog north of five hundred fifty billion dollars and trailing free cash flow that is already negative.⁹¹⁰ Broadcom just showed everyone the grading curve: a record AI-chip quarter, up more than a hundred-forty percent (per Broadcom’s fiscal-Q2 release), and the stock fell fifteen percent anyway because Hock Tan declined to raise the story he had already sold.¹¹¹² At these multiples, delivering is not enough; you have to deliver and beat the build you already financed. Mark the calendar for Wednesday. The thesis breaks if the backlog keeps growing and the cash behind it never shows up.Wall Street’s consensus on the AI build: the balance sheets are fortresses and the capex funds itself. Three of the richest companies on earth sold or floated stock this week to tell you it doesn’t.The Tape — W2623Universe of 94 cashflow-memo names, snap dates 2026-06-02 → 2026-06-05. Composite is rank-sum percentile of FCF Yield + NTM Revenue Growth (higher = better balance). Banks and finance-book names shown separately.Telltales Yield — Top 10From the Cashflow Desk — Marcus GrahamThe name sitting at the top of our own board is the one that does not have to finance anything. Uber leads the composite this week on a 7.5% free-cash-flow yield, growing the forward top line about fifteen percent, at thirteen times EV to free cash flow. It converts cash and grows without selling a data center or a share to do it — the asset-light, self-funding profile Alphabet used to own before it raised eighty-five billion dollars of equity this week to pay for the build. The screens still file Uber under gig economy and the hyperscalers under quality compounders. The cash flow says the labels are backwards. What changes the read is the day Uber has to raise outside capital the way the hyperscalers now are; until then, the top of the board is the part of the market still paying for itself.Telltales Yield — Bottom 10This Week’s ReportersNote: Oracle’s 46.3% NTM revenue-growth figure is the raw FMP analyst-estimates consensus and looks anomalous against Oracle’s own ~15% forward guide; we read Oracle through its RPO backlog and trailing free cash flow (negative this quarter on the capex cycle), as in The Take above, not this estimate.Sector MediansDebt / FCF Watch (highest leverage on TTM FCF)Weekly Price MovementTop 5 (week-over-week price) Bottom 5 (week-over-week price) Banks (shown separately — FCF metric not meaningful)Finance-book — FCF not comparableCustomer-float / captive-finance / reserve businesses (IBKR broker float, KMX CarMax Auto Finance, PYPL customer funds, CRCL stablecoin reserves). The memo’s operating-FCF method overstates their FCF, so they are held off the ranked leaderboard pending the P&L-waterfall rebuild. Data Gaps90 of 90 ranked-eligible names ranked. 0 dropped for missing FCF yield or NTM revenue growth; 7 shown separately (banks + finance-book, FCF not comparable).Source: cashflow-memo master_2026-06-05.csv. NTM growth from FMP analyst-estimates consensus. Composite is a percentile rank, not a recommendation.The Issue — This Week's BriefThe Cashflow MemoWho Pays for the AI Build?The week the AI trade stopped being about the chips and became a question about who pays for them.The Telltales Weekend Update. Ava Cabot and analyst Marcus Graham walk through what happened this week — and what’s coming next — across the universe of companies in the Cash Flow Memo. About 13 minutes. No filler.Download the memo at telltales.us. Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode E2624.Chapter markers* Time | Segment* 0:00 | Disclaimer* 0:15 | Cold open* 0:45 | Theme — Who pays for the AI build* 4:45 | Deep dive — AI infrastructure’s two-act week* 8:45 | Rapid-fire + the forward week* 11:45 | Close + Consensus WatchFull transcriptDisclaimerAva: The following conversation is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you.Cold openAva: You’re listening to the Telltales Weekend Update. I’m Ava Cabot.Marcus: And I’m Marcus Graham — the cashflow desk.Ava: Quick note: the show is produced entirely with AI tools, and both voices you’re hearing are AI-generated. Send feedback through the Substack. We’re still in pilot, so tell us what’s working and what isn’t.Ava: Here’s the week. For two years, the AI trade was a story about chips — who makes the fastest one, who gets the allocation. This week it turned into a different question, and it’s a harder one. Who actually pays for the build? Broadcom printed a record and got punished for it. Oracle’s about to walk into the same exam on Wednesday. And three of the biggest companies on earth spent the week showing you three completely different ways to fund the thing — dilute, borrow, or rent. On Wednesday’s main show, episode 2623, Hunt, Jason, and Mike framed the AI capex boom as the macro tailwind holding up a $31 trillion economy.[^ep-e2623] We’re going to put the cashflow lens on it. Because the tailwind has an invoice attached, and this week the invoice started coming due.Theme — Who pays for the AI buildAva: Start on page one of the memo, because Apple and Alphabet are sitting right next to each other this week giving opposite answers to the same question. Alphabet chose dilution. The asset-light beautiful business, the company that hadn’t sold a share of stock since its IPO, just raised about $85 billion in an equity offering to fund its AI build — with Berkshire Hathaway taking $10 billion of it in a private placement.[^googl-capital-raise-20260601] That’s to cover a capital-expenditure budget of $180–190 billion this year alone.[^googl-capex-2026-20260601] Marcus — what does that raise tell you that the press release won’t?Marcus: It tells you the cash machine stopped covering its own build. Going into this, the memo had Alphabet’s trailing free cash flow falling 44% year over year — capex is eating it alive.[^memo-googl-fcf-20260605] You don’t raise $85 billion in equity when your own cash flow funds the plan. You raise it when it doesn’t. 69 times trailing free cash flow for a company now diluting shareholders to keep up.[^memo-googl-evfcf-20260605] The beautiful business framing is over. This is a capital-intensive company that happens to own a search engine.Ava: Meta took door number two. Mark Zuckerberg spent the week reportedly floating an equity raise of his own to fund $125–145 billion of capex — and the stock fell almost 7% on Friday just on the report that it might.[^meta-capital-raise-20260605] Same week, he’s hinting Meta might enter cloud computing to find an offset.[^meta-cloud-computing-20260603] Marcus, Meta’s the one name here that doesn’t actually need the money.Marcus: Right, and that’s what makes it interesting. Meta still generates $50 billion of trailing free cash flow, and unlike Alphabet, it’s still growing — up about 22%.[^memo-meta-fcf-20260605] At 32 times free cash flow it’s the cheapest name in this whole group.[^memo-meta-evfcf-20260605] So when the best cash machine in the bunch is reportedly willing to dilute anyway, that’s the tell. It’s not that Meta can’t fund the build. It’s that the build is now big enough that even the best balance sheet here wants a cushion. The market saw the same thing. That’s the selloff.Ava: And then there’s Apple, on the same page, doing the thing nobody else in the arms race is doing. It’s not building an AI brain. It’s renting one. WWDC opens Monday, and the centerpiece reveal is Siri 2.0 — powered by Google’s Gemini.[^aapl-wwdc-20260601] Apple is paying Google roughly $1 billion a year for access to a 1.2-trillion-parameter model rather than train its own.[^aapl-google-deal-20260602] Marcus, a billion a year. Everyone else is spending a hundred times that.Marcus: And it might be the smartest line item in the whole sector. Apple throws off $129 billion of free cash flow a year, and it’s still growing.[^memo-aapl-fcf-20260605] A billion to rent the frontier is a rounding error against that — less than 1% of the cash Apple generates. At 35 times trailing free cash flow, Apple’s letting everyone else spend hundreds of billions to build the capability, then buying the output wholesale.[^memo-aapl-evfcf-20260605] Dilute, borrow, or rent. This week you got to watch all three, side by side. Only one of them doesn’t cost the shareholder a thing.Ava: Three doors. One invoice. Hold that thought, because the companies actually selling the shovels had their own reckoning this week.Deep dive — AI infrastructure’s two-act weekAva: Page two of the memo, Broadcom and Oracle, back to back — and between them they tell you everything about how the market is grading AI infrastructure right now. Same business, same end-market, one week apart. One company just delivered the print. The other has to deliver it on Wednesday. Here’s the contrast on the table. Broadcom reported Wednesday: AI semiconductor revenue up 143% year over year, to nearly $11 billion in a single quarter.[^avgo-ai-revenue-20260603] A record. CEO Hock Tan stood up and said he has, quote, line of sight to $100 billion in AI chip revenue in 2027.[^avgo-2027-target-20260603] And the stock fell 15%.[^avgo-stock-reaction-20260603] On a record. Marcus — explain that one.Marcus: The market didn’t sell the print. It sold the discipline. Going into this, the memo had Broadcom at 68 times trailing free cash flow with 57% forward revenue growth baked in.[^memo-avgo-evfcf-20260605] At 68 times, you are not paying for what the company delivered. You’re paying for the raise — for Tan to put a bigger number on the board. He didn’t. He kept the 2027 target flat and refused to bump it. So the stock gave back the premium that was sitting there waiting for the bump. The business is flawless. The expectations were priced one notch higher than flawless. That’s the whole 15%, right there.Ava: A record print — and the stock still falls. That’s what a 68 multiple does to you.Ava: So that’s the company that already reported. Now flip to Oracle, which walks into the exact same test Wednesday after the close. The setup: a backlog — remaining performance obligations — of $553 billion, up 325% year over year.[^orcl-rpo-backlog-20260604] Cloud infrastructure revenue up 84%.[^orcl-rpo-backlog-20260604] The stock fell 8% Friday before it even reported, when a strong jobs number pushed rate-cut hopes out.[^orcl-stock-decline-20260605] Marcus, Oracle’s the one name on this page where you can’t even use a multiple.Marcus: Right, and that’s the most important thing to understand before Wednesday. Oracle’s trailing free cash flow is negative — minus $21 billion.[^memo-orcl-fcf-20260605] There is no enterprise-value-to-free-cash-flow number, because there’s no free cash flow. They’re spending it all on the build. So don’t reach for a multiple — it’ll just be a negative number that means nothing. What prices Oracle is one question: does the backlog convert? $553 billion of contracted intent, growing 46% on the forward top line.[^memo-orcl-ntm-20260605] If that’s real revenue, the negative cash flow today is the cost of the build, exactly like Hunt said Wednesday. If it’s optimistic paper, this is the most expensive backlog in software. Wednesday is the first data point on which one it is.Ava: So connect the two. Broadcom got marked down for not raising the story. What does that do to Oracle’s setup on Wednesday?Marcus: It raises the bar. Broadcom just taught the market that delivering isn’t enough at these multiples — you have to deliver and beat the story you already sold. Oracle reports right into that mood. The $553 billion backlog is the story.[^orcl-rpo-backlog-20260604] If the cash behind it doesn’t start showing up Wednesday, Oracle gets the Broadcom treatment — except Oracle doesn’t have positive free cash flow to cushion the fall. Same exam, one week later, harder grader.Ava: And the one name standing behind both of them — selling the silicon into that whole build — had its own week. Marcus, Nvidia.Marcus: Nvidia is the supply that proves the demand both of these companies are selling. At the Taipei keynote this week, Jensen Huang said it flat: quote, Vera Rubin is in full production.[^tp-jensen-production-20260601] That’s the next-generation architecture confirmed off the roadmap and into the fab. And he made the claim that, if it holds, is the entire moat: quote, Today, Nvidia’s token cost is the lowest in the world.[^tp-jensen-tokencost-20260601] His framing — not by a little, by orders of magnitude. Against 41 times trailing free cash flow, that pricing-power claim is the whole argument.[^memo-nvda-evfcf-20260605] And here’s the tell the market usually waits for the print to see — per Talnexis hiring data, Nvidia’s AI engineering roles have been accelerating for weeks, and its customer-deployment postings just spiked.[^tlnx-nvda-hiring-20260605] That’s not a chip-research pattern. That’s staffing to go deploy an installed base. Demand you can see in the job board before you see it in the revenue.Ava: So the scoreboard for the week. Broadcom delivered and still got marked down. Oracle has to prove the backlog is real. And Nvidia is hiring like the demand is already in the building. Imagine that.Rapid-fire + the forward weekAva: Three quick ones, and then the forward week. First, Celsius. The energy-drink story just picked up a regulator. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton opened a formal investigation into Celsius and Alani Nu over alleged deceptive marketing to minors[^celh-txag-20260605] — and that’s a fresh overhang on top of margin pressure the company’s already flagged as it digests the Alani Nu and Rockstar acquisitions.[^celh-margin-pressure-20260604] The stock’s been telling you about the margin worry. Now there’s a legal one too.Ava: Second, Five Below, and this one’s just a clean beat. Comparable sales up almost 23%. Adjusted earnings beat the Street by more than 30%. And management raised the full-year guide.[^five-q1-eps-20260603] In a week when half of retail is talking about a cautious consumer, Five Below printed the quarter the rest of the sector wishes it had.Ava: Third, Vertex. A pipeline name doing pipeline things. The FDA accepted Vertex’s application for povetacicept in IgA nephropathy — a kidney disease — with a decision date set for November 30.[^vrtx-povetacicept-20260601] That stacks on top of the cystic-fibrosis franchise and the new non-opioid painkiller. Vertex isn’t a one-drug company anymore, and the back half of this year is a string of catalysts.Ava: And the forward week. Oracle is the marquee print — Wednesday after the close, and you just heard why it matters. Lennar reports Thursday, and watch the gross margin: it collapsed to about 15% last quarter on the heaviest incentives since 2010, and the question is whether that was the floor.[^len-earnings-20260528] Then, looking out: CarMax reports the following Wednesday, June 17;[^earn-kmx] FedEx reports June 23, its first quarter as a pure-play express network after spinning off its freight business and pulling out about $4 billion in cash.[^fdx-q4-earnings-20260602] And keep an eye on Lantheus — there’s a reported $7 billion takeover interest and an FDA decision both landing this month.[^lnth-pdufa-20260605] Cheapest name in our biotech set, two binary events, one window.Close + Consensus WatchAva: That’s the show. Wall Street’s consensus on the AI-infrastructure week: Broadcom stumbled, Oracle’s the safe re-rate, and the hyperscalers can fund this forever. I’d put all three on the watch list, because all three are about to be tested. Here’s the throughline to take into Monday: this was the week the AI trade stopped being about the chips and became a question about who pays for them. Dilute, borrow, or rent on the demand side. Deliver the backlog or don’t on the supply side. The capex is real, the tailwind is real — and now, finally, so is the bill. One more thing: the hiring data we cited this week is from Talnexis — talnexis.com. You can pull up the Cash Flow Memo yourself at telltales.us. And Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode 2624, continuing the healthcare-and-deficit thread. We’ll see you next Saturday.DisclaimerAva: The views expressed on this podcast are the host alone and do not constitute an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the host nor any of their employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of this information. The host and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future, and may or may not hold positions in the securities mentioned.Sources* Bloomberg. (2026, June 5). Meta shares fall up to 7% on report of potential stock sale for AI funding. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-05/meta-considers-raising-billions-in-share-sale-ft-reports* BusinessWire. (2026, June 1). Vertex announces U.S. FDA acceptance of Biologics License Application for accelerated approval of povetacicept in IgA nephropathy [Press release]. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260601424914/en/Vertex-Announces-US-FDA-Acceptance-of-Biologics-License-Application-for-Accelerated-Approval-of-Povetacicept-in-IgA-Nephropathy* CNBC. (2026, June 1). Alphabet plans to raise $80 billion from stock sales to fund AI build-out. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/01/alphabet-to-raise-80-billion-from-stock-sales-to-fund-ai-buildout.html* FedEx Investor Relations. (2026, June 2). FedEx board of directors approves spin-off of FedEx Freight [Press release]. https://investors.fedex.com/news-and-events/investor-news/investor-news-details/2026/FedEx-Board-of-Directors-Approves-Spin-off-of-FedEx-Freight/default.aspx* FinancialContent. (2026, June 5). Why Oracle (ORCL) shares are sliding today. https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/stockstory-2026-6-5-why-oracle-orcl-shares-are-sliding-today* FX Leaders. (2026, June 4). Oracle (ORCL) stock analysis: $553B backlog, AI revenue surge, and a $700B bet on cloud infrastructure. https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2026/06/04/oracle-orcl-stock-analysis-553b-backlog-ai-revenue-surge-and-a-700b-bet-on-cloud-infrastructure/* GlobeNewswire. (2026, May 7). Lantheus reports first quarter 2026 financial results and provides business update [Press release]. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/07/3289785/0/en/Lantheus-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results-and-Provides-Business-Update.html* HeyGoTrade. (2026, June 3). Broadcom (AVGO) after the earnings drop: Buy the dip or stay cautious? https://www.heygotrade.com/en/blog/broadcom-avgo-stock-2026/* Huang, J. (2026, June 1). NVIDIA GTC Taipei 2026 keynote [Keynote address]. NVIDIA. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wSp6AiNIrsY* Lennar Corporation. (2026, May 28). Lennar Corporation to broadcast its second quarter 2026 earnings call on June 12, 2026 [Press release]. https://newsroom.lennar.com/2026-05-28-Lennar-Corporation-to-Broadcast-Its-Second-Quarter-2026-Earnings-Call-on-June-12,-2026* Money Morning. (2026, June 5). Alphabet just sold $84.75 billion in stock. Here’s why that might be the smartest move of 2026. https://moneymorning.com/2026/06/05/alphabet-googl-84-billion-equity-raise-ai-infrastructure-2026* Office of the Texas Attorney General. (2026). Attorney General Ken Paxton announces investigation of Celsius Energy Drink Company to protect Texas. https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/attorney-general-ken-paxton-announces-investigation-celsius-energy-drink-company-protect-texas* QuiverQuant. (2026, June 4). Celsius Holdings (CELH) slides as investors digest conference materials highlighting margin pressure and integration execution risk. https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Celsius+Holdings+(CELH)+slides+as+investors+digest+conference+materials+highlighting+margin+pressure+and+integration+execution+risk* Stock Titan. (2026, June 3). Broadcom Q2 2026 revenue up 48%, guides to $29.4B. https://www.stocktitan.net/news/AVGO/broadcom-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial-if4yrbje8hq6.html* Tech Insider. (2026, June 3). Broadcom AI revenue surges: Custom chip strategy 2026. https://tech-insider.org/broadcom-ai-revenue-custom-chips-2026/* The Motley Fool. (2026, June 1). Apple’s WWDC is June 8. Here’s the 1 announcement that could move the stock. https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/06/01/apples-wwdc-is-june-8-heres-the-1-announcement-tha/* The Motley Fool. (2026, June 2). Apple’s biggest AI test arrives June 8. Here’s what’s really at stake at WWDC. https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/06/02/apple-biggest-ai-test-june-8-whats-stake-wwdc/* The Motley Fool. (2026, June 3). Meta Platforms just hinted at a new business unit that could generate billions. https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/06/03/meta-platforms-just-hinted-at-a-new-business-unit/* Yahoo Finance. (2026, June 3). Five Below (FIVE) Q1 earnings and revenues surpass estimates. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/five-below-five-q1-earnings-211002302.htmlHiring intelligenceHiring-velocity claims for Nvidia are sourced from Talnexis, a hiring-intelligence platform that tracks public job-board postings across tracked tech companies, refreshed daily. Source: Talnexis (https://www.talnexis.com/). Signals cited: HIRING_VELOCITY on AI/ML (12→14→20, three-week trend) and CATEGORY_SPIKE on Solution Engineering (4→14, 3.5x in 7 days), both detected 2026-06-05. See 04. Publishing/shows/weekend-update/W2623/dryrun/talnexis_signals.md.Forward earnings (FMP)CarMax (KMX) earnings date — 2026-06-17 (Wednesday) before market open, consensus EPS $0.94, revenue $7.39B. Source: FMP /stable/earnings?symbol=KMX, pulled 2026-06-05. See 04. Publishing/shows/weekend-update/W2623/dryrun/earnings_slate.md.Internal dataInternal data is provided on a best efforts basis.Tracked-people quotesJensen Huang quotes are drawn verbatim (with keynote timestamps) from the Telltales tracked-people signal corpus:* Vera Rubin is in full production. — Jensen Huang @ 00:40:39* Today, Nvidia’s token cost is the lowest in the world. Not by 10%, by X factors, orders of magnitude. — Jensen Huang @ 00:48:44Source: NVIDIA GTC Taipei 2026 keynote, 2026-06-01 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wSp6AiNIrsY). Memo: 01. Raw/secondary/people/Jensen Huang/2026-06-01 - NVIDIA - NVIDIA-GTC-Taipei-2026-Keynote-Full-Replay - signal.md. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

A wide-angle look at the three forces colliding in the market: oil supply through a contested Strait of Hormuz, the AI capex boom propping up the economy, and a US healthcare system whose broken incentives now intersect with an unsustainable federal deficit. Pull up the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us and follow along with Exhibits A (US government finances), B (natural gas), and C (oil).The Cashflow MemoKey Takeaways* Hunt models a ~2M bbl/day inventory draw from the Iran disruption but expects no price spike: near-month crude rising to ~$95, 2026 average ~$84, with the $120–140 bear case unlikely because Straits of Hormuz volumes (~20% of global supply) are being rerouted via the Red Sea, Turkey, and Fujairah. He puts ~50% odds on the US–Iran impasse persisting indefinitely, with the Revolutionary Guards now the real arbiters in Tehran.* AI capex is the macro tailwind holding up the economy: hyperscaler spending (Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta) is approaching ~$1T in a ~$31T economy, and Google issued equity for the first time since its IPO to fund it. Q1 earnings were strong and Hunt sees no recession despite $90 oil.* The ACA created a zero-risk insurer model where a guaranteed 15–20% margin on cost actively incentivizes payers to pay more, not less (15% of $200 beats 15% of $100). Section 6001’s ban on new physician-owned hospitals (no new entrants since 2010) plus certificate-of-need laws structurally foreclose competition — McAllen vs. El Paso showed 2x cost for worse outcomes years before the ACA.* Cost-conscious payers can break the cartel: Montana’s reference-based pricing at 2x Medicare cut costs with no benefit reductions before lobbying reversed it. Mike’s fix needs all three legs at once — enforced price transparency (the unenforced 2021 rule), expanded low-cost supply (repeal 6001), and a cost-conscious payer. Surgery Center of Oklahoma and ICHRA show market mechanics already working at the margin.* The real forcing function is the deficit: new Fed chair Warsh wants to shrink the Fed’s ~$7T balance sheet toward ~$1–1.5T, which on top of a ~$1.5T deficit means finding buyers for ~$2.5T/year of Treasurys against uncertain demand. With US healthcare at ~18% of GDP vs. Show Notes[00:00:30] Oil, Iran & the Inventory Draw (Exhibit C) Hunt sizes a ~2M bbl/day inventory draw and explains how Straits of Hormuz volumes are being rerouted through the Red Sea, Turkey, and Fujairah.[00:04:15] Crude Price Outlook (Exhibit B) Near-month moving toward ~$95, 2026 average ~$84, future strip ~$76 — and why the $120–140 spike scenario is unlikely.[00:06:03] Who Actually Runs Iran The Revolutionary Guards as the real arbiters, and why Hunt puts ~50% odds on an indefinite US–Iran impasse.[00:08:14] No Recession, and the AI Capex Engine Strong Q1 earnings, ~$1T of hyperscaler capital spending in a ~$31T economy, and Google’s first equity issuance since its IPO.[00:09:22] The Deficit Problem (Exhibit A) Why holding Medicare and Medicaid spending flat is the non-negotiable lever for the FY27 budget math.[00:11:00] Healthcare’s Broken Incentives: McAllen vs. El Paso Two Texas border towns, 2x the Medicare spend, worse outcomes — and why this predates the ACA.[00:13:17] The Zero-Risk Insurer How a guaranteed 15–20% margin on cost incentivizes payers to pay more, not less.[00:14:20] Foreclosing Competition: Section 6001 & Certificate of Need No new physician-owned hospitals since 2010, and why you have to ask your competitor for permission to compete.[00:15:30] Montana’s Reference-Pricing Experiment A $23k vs. $103k knee replacement, pricing set at 2x Medicare, and how lobbying unwound the savings.[00:17:43] Price Transparency That Nobody Enforces The 2021 rule, two administrations that ignored it, and why you still can’t get a quote.[00:19:55] Opting Out: Surgery Center of Oklahoma A cash-only, menu-priced model — and why it can’t legally undercut Medicare.[00:21:00] Hunt’s Solution: Medicare for All A bipartisan Trump–Bernie path to anyone entering Medicare at any age.[00:22:58] Mike’s Three Fixes & Jason’s ICHRA Transparency, low-cost supply, and a cost-conscious payer — plus the employer-budget model that puts patients back in the driver’s seat.[00:26:02] Vertical Integration & UnitedHealthcare The monopoly that sets the price, accepts the payment, and provides the care.[00:27:43] AI in Healthcare: Upcoding vs. Real-Time Auditing From gaming medical codes to the Johns Hopkins finding that 21% of care is unnecessary and 60% is shoppable.[00:28:54] The Debt Crisis Endgame: Warsh & the Fed Shrinking a ~$7T balance sheet, ~$2.5T of annual Treasury supply, and why post-’08 was deflation, not inflation.[00:33:17] Closing: Don’t Sell Quality Cash Flow Why Microsoft, Amazon, Exxon, and Chevron are better credits than the US government right now.Get the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us, and subscribe for next week’s continuation on healthcare reform and the deficit.Cashtags$AMZN $MSFT $GOOGL $META $CVX $XOM $UNH This post and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

The Trillion-Dollar Bet That the Cycle Is DeadThe market just handed a memory company a trillion-dollar valuation at roughly a hundred times trailing free cash flow, on a yield under one percent.¹² Strip the letters AI off that sentence and it is a bet that the most violently cyclical business in technology has quietly stopped being cyclical.On Wednesday’s main show, Hunt, Jason, and Mike spent an hour on the opposite problem — how you get to a two-trillion-dollar valuation on a company with almost no free cash flow at all. That was the SpaceX S-1.³ This week the market answered the mirror image for Micron. It looked at the cash that actually exists, and it priced that cash as if it can never fall again.Here is the part the screens are not showing you. As recently as fiscal 2023, Micron lost almost six billion dollars in a single year — and its gross margin went negative, which is the polite way of saying it sold memory for less than it cost to make.⁴ That was not 1998. That was two years ago. The cycle before it: fourteen billion in net income in 2018, gone to a fraction of that by 2020.⁵ Boom, glut, collapse, repeat. The most reliable pattern in semiconductors, and Micron has run it twice in the last eight years.The mechanism is not mysterious. High memory prices pull in capacity. Capacity becomes supply. Supply kills the price. A hundred times trailing free cash flow is the market betting that mechanism has been switched off — that high-bandwidth memory, the stuff that feeds the AI accelerators, is different enough to outrun the cycle for years instead of quarters. The bull case is real, and worth stating fairly: Micron’s entire 2026 HBM output is already sold out,⁶ management says it can fill only half to two-thirds of what its largest customers are asking for,⁷ and trailing free cash flow has grown more than fivefold off the 2023 trough.⁸ The stock rose nineteen percent the day it crossed a trillion, and nearly ninety percent in a month.⁹¹⁰ None of that is fake. The only question is whether it is permanent.Now put Broadcom next to it, because it reports Wednesday and the contrast is the whole point.¹¹ Broadcom is guiding AI-chip revenue up a hundred and forty percent, to roughly eleven billion dollars in a single quarter¹² — and it goes into that print at about seventy times trailing free cash flow, on more than thirty billion dollars of cash it has already banked.¹³¹⁴ The cashflow read is in Marcus’s column below; short version, one of these names is a bet on a shortage and the other is a bet on a standard. Micron needs the cycle to stay broken. Broadcom gets paid whether the buyer is Google, Meta, or Anthropic, and it needs nothing about memory pricing to be true. Page one of the Cash Flow Memo has both names. The market is paying the fatter multiple for the one carrying all the cycle risk.What changes the read is not a hiring chart or a single beat. It is the first crack in sold out. Broadcom’s print on Wednesday, June third, is the near-term referee — if a hundred-and-forty-percent AI guide actually holds, the standard is winning and the shortage trade has competition. The Micron test runs longer: watch HBM contract pricing into 2026 and the first time a competitor qualifies into the big accelerator sockets. The thesis breaks the day sold out quietly becomes renegotiated. That is always how a memory cycle turns. Not with a warning. With a renegotiation.For a long-cycle owner the discipline is simple and unpopular. You are not paid to decide whether AI memory demand is real this year. It is. You are paid to ask what Micron earns across the whole cycle, trough included, and whether a trillion-dollar tag survives the year the glut comes back. In 2023 the answer to that question was a six-billion-dollar loss. The market has decided that year was the last of its kind. The market has decided that before.Wall Street’s consensus on Micron’s trillion-dollar tag: AI broke the memory cycle. The memory cycle has broken that consensus before — twice since 2018, and the second time the gross margin went negative.The Tape — W2622Universe of 94 cashflow-memo names, snap dates 2026-05-26 → 2026-05-30. Composite is rank-sum percentile of FCF Yield + NTM Revenue Growth (higher = better balance). Financials shown separately.Telltales Yield — Top 10* # | Ticker | Sector | Composite | FCF Yld | NTM Growth | EV/FCF | 1-wk Px* 1 | UBER | Technology | 80 | 7.5% | 15.2% | 13.2 | -2.0%* 2 | FCX | Basic Materials | 78 | 6.3% | 19.8% | 16.0 | 6.0%* 3 | REGN | Healthcare | 77 | 8.8% | 10.6% | 11.3 | -3.8%* 4 | LNTH | Healthcare | 73 | 6.6% | 13.2% | 15.1 | -3.6%* 5 | CRM | Technology | 72 | 8.5% | 9.6% | 11.8 | 6.1%* 6 | NOW | Technology | 68 | 3.8% | 18.5% | 26.1 | 21.8%* 7 | ABNB | Consumer Cyclical | 67 | 6.5% | 10.6% | 15.3 | 0.7%* 8 | PYPL | Financial Services | 67 | 16.5% | 4.1% | 6.1 | 1.2%* 9 | AM | Energy | 67 | 8.5% | 6.0% | 11.8 | -5.5%* 10 | LNG | Energy | 66 | 7.9% | 6.7% | 12.6 | -6.6%From the Cashflow Desk — Marcus GrahamMicron’s trillion-dollar tag and Broadcom’s get talked about as the same AI trade. They are not. Micron sits at 102x trailing FCF — a multiple that only pays off if the memory cycle is dead, in a business that lost $5.8B two fiscal years ago when the last glut hit. Broadcom goes into Wednesday’s print near 68x and needs nothing about memory pricing to cooperate; it gets paid on the custom-silicon standard whether the buyer is Google, Meta, or Anthropic. One name is a bet on a shortage. The other is a bet on a standard, and the standard is the cheaper multiple. The test is Wednesday, June 3: if Broadcom’s AI guide holds, the cycle-proof story suddenly has a cheaper rival. We re-anchor Micron when the next HBM contract-pricing print lands.Telltales Yield — Bottom 10* # | Ticker | Sector | Composite | FCF Yld | NTM Growth | EV/FCF | 1-wk Px* 1 | VG | Energy | 2 | -8.2% | -9.2% | — | -12.9%* 2 | LEN | Consumer Cyclical | 18 | 0.1% | 3.4% | 1589.4 | 1.0%* 3 | NKE | Consumer Cyclical | 19 | 1.8% | 0.6% | 56.0 | 3.5%* 4 | FANG | Energy | 20 | 2.8% | -6.6% | 36.4 | -4.6%* 5 | XOM | Energy | 22 | 3.3% | -9.0% | 30.6 | -6.2%* 6 | SBUX | Consumer Cyclical | 25 | 2.4% | 2.3% | 40.8 | -3.8%* 7 | CVX | Energy | 29 | 4.1% | -13.0% | 24.5 | -4.7%* 8 | WMT | Consumer Defensive | 29 | 1.6% | 4.7% | 64.0 | -3.8%* 9 | INTC | Technology | 35 | -0.4% | 10.7% | — | -4.3%* 10 | COST | Consumer Defensive | 36 | 2.2% | 7.9% | 45.8 | -7.0%This Week’s Reporters* Ticker | Sector | Reports | FCF Yld | NTM Growth | Composite* AVGO | Technology | 2026-06-03 | 1.5% | 57.1% | 58* FIVE | Consumer Defensive | 2026-06-03 | 3.0% | 9.9% | 48Sector Medians* Sector | N | Median Composite | Median FCF Yld | Median NTM Growth* Financial Services | 4 | 61 | 3.8% | 11.6%* Healthcare | 10 | 56 | 6.4% | 10.0%* Technology | 15 | 54 | 1.6% | 25.1%* Communication Services | 11 | 54 | 4.1% | 4.5%* Basic Materials | 3 | 50 | 6.3% | 6.5%* Industrials | 8 | 49 | 3.3% | 9.0%* Consumer Defensive | 5 | 48 | 3.0% | 7.9%* Consumer Cyclical | 12 | 45 | 3.3% | 4.8%* Energy | 21 | 44 | 5.9% | 0.7%* Utilities | 1 | 42 | 2.4% | 9.5%Debt / FCF Watch (highest leverage on TTM FCF)* Ticker | Sector | Net Debt / FCF | FCF Yld | Composite* TRGP | Energy | 20.8 | 1.2% | 44* NEE | Utilities | 16.2 | 2.4% | 42* MTDR | Energy | 12.8 | 2.7% | 51* CHTR | Communication Services | 10.6 | 8.0% | 50* ET | Energy | 10.0 | 5.4% | 44* DE | Industrials | 9.4 | 4.4% | 56* EPD | Energy | 9.4 | 3.3% | 43* FDX | Industrials | 8.8 | 3.6% | 46Weekly Price MovementTop 5 (week-over-week price) | Ticker | Sector | Price | 1-wk % | |——–|——–|——:|——-:| | SNOW | Technology | $255.55 | 48.4% | | MU | Technology | $971.00 | 29.3% | | NOW | Technology | $124.37 | 21.8% | | ORCL | Technology | $225.78 | 17.5% | | PLTR | Technology | $156.54 | 14.4% |Bottom 5 (week-over-week price) | Ticker | Sector | Price | 1-wk % | |——–|——–|——:|——-:| | VG | Energy | $12.04 | -12.9% | | OKE | Energy | $83.94 | -10.7% | | KMI | Energy | $31.08 | -8.0% | | TRGP | Energy | $255.07 | -7.8% | | CF | Basic Materials | $112.35 | -7.7% |Financials (shown separately — FCF metric not meaningful)* Ticker | Price | 52-wk Position | Div Yld* JPM | $299.31 | 51% | 2.1%* MS | $208.00 | 100% | 2.0%* GS | $1025.56 | 100% | 1.9%* IBKR | $86.97 | 96% | 0.1%Data Gaps90 of 90 non-Financial names ranked. 0 dropped for missing FCF yield or NTM revenue growth.Source: cashflow-memo master_2026-05-30.csv. NTM growth from FMP analyst-estimates consensus. Composite is a percentile rank, not a recommendation.▶ Explore the interactive Tape →The Cashflow MemoFive Prices, One QuestionThe week the market argued what AI revenue is worth, and gave five different answers.The Telltales Weekend Update. Ava Cabot and analyst Marcus Graham walk through what happened this week — and what’s coming next — across the companies in the Cash Flow Memo. About 14 minutes. No filler.Download the memo at telltales.us. Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode 2623.Chapter markers* Time | Segment* 0:00 | Disclaimer* 0:15 | Cold open* 0:45 | Theme — What is AI worth? (Snowflake, Salesforce, Palantir)* 4:45 | Deep dive — Micron & Broadcom* 8:45 | Rapid-fire — Lilly, Kratos, and the forward week* 11:45 | Close & Consensus Watch* 12:45 | DisclaimerFull transcriptDisclaimerAva: The following conversation is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you.Cold openAva: You’re listening to the Telltales Weekend Update. I’m Ava Cabot.Marcus: And I’m Marcus Graham — the cashflow desk.Ava: Quick note: the show is produced entirely with AI tools, and both voices you’re hearing are AI-generated. Send feedback through the Substack. On Wednesday’s main show, Hunt, Jason, and Mike spent an hour on one question — how do you get to a $2 trillion valuation on a company with almost no free cash flow? That was the SpaceX S-1.[^ep-e2622] This week the market asked the opposite question, and asked it five times. Not how you justify a valuation with no cash — but what the AI cash flow that actually exists is worth. And across five names, it came back with five completely different answers. That’s the show.Theme — What is AI worth?Ava: On page 2 of the memo this week, the whole enterprise-software book tells one story — and then contradicts itself. This is the cleanest version of the only fight that mattered all week: AI revenue is real, it’s growing, and the market cannot agree what it’s worth. Watch it price three layers of the same stack three completely different ways.Ava: Start with the data layer. Snowflake had the best trading day in its history this week — up 36% in a single session[^news-snow-surge] — on a Q1 beat[^news-snow-q1] and a $6 billion, five-year commitment from AWS.[^news-snow-aws] Now the application layer. Salesforce beat the same week, and told you Agentforce is already a $1.2 billion business growing more than 200%[^news-crm-arr] — and the stock is down 33% on the year.[^news-crm-stock] Same enterprise-AI dollar. One name up a third in a session, the other down a third on the year. Marcus — one of those prices is wrong.Marcus: The market is buying the picks-and-shovels and pricing the application like it’s already roadkill. Going into this print the memo had Salesforce at 12 times trailing free cash flow on an 8% free-cash yield, Q4 10-K confirmed[^memo-crm-evfcf][^memo-crm-yield] — we re-anchor when the Q1 10-Q files. 12 times, on a company that’s still growing and already running a real AI-agent business. That’s the price of a melting ice cube. Snowflake went into its own print at 45 times[^memo-snow-evfcf], and the market just paid up for more. The whole spread is one bet — agents eat the workflow vendor and feed the data platform — and you’re paying the fattest multiple for the side that might lose.Ava: A melting ice cube growing 200%. Sure. And here’s the tell the stock price is ignoring — per Talnexis hiring data, Salesforce’s AI and machine-learning job postings jumped more than five-fold in a single week.[^tlnx-crm-aiml] Companies that believe they’re being disrupted don’t staff the disruption. And then there’s the third layer — over on page 5, with the chips and the defense names.Ava: Palantir is being priced as something you simply can’t avoid buying. The stock jumped 9% this week[^news-pltr-surge] — not on earnings, on procurement. The Pentagon made its Maven system a formal program of record[^news-pltr-maven], and the Army folded 75 separate contracts into a single $10 billion enterprise agreement.[^news-pltr-army] When the buyer standardizes on you, you stop being a vendor. You become infrastructure. Marcus — what does infrastructure cost?Marcus: It’s the most expensive name in the entire memo, and it’s expensive on purpose. 130 times trailing free cash flow[^memo-pltr-evfcf] — but a program of record isn’t a contract, it’s a multi-year funding line, and free cash flow already grew almost 200% over the last year.[^memo-pltr-fcf] That multiple isn’t pricing today’s cash. It’s pricing a decade of government AI spend compounding. The test is whether commercial growth holds up next to the government book. If it stalls, 130 times is a long way down.Ava: So: rewarded, buried, and untouchable. Three layers, three verdicts, one week.Deep dive — Micron & BroadcomAva: Here’s the same fight, one layer down, in its purest form. Micron and Broadcom are the two ways to own the silicon underneath the entire AI build — the memory, and the custom chips. Same supercycle. The market just priced them like they live in different decades.Ava: Micron crossed $1 trillion in market value this week for the first time ever[^news-mu-trillion] — up 19% the day it happened, 88% in a month[^news-mu-momentum] — because its entire 2026 high-bandwidth-memory output is already sold out[^news-mu-hbm], and management says it can fill maybe half to two-thirds of what its biggest customers are asking for.[^news-mu-demand] Broadcom reports Wednesday[^earn-avgo], guiding AI-chip revenue up 140% year-over-year — to almost $11 billion in a single quarter.[^news-avgo-ai] Two anchors of the same build. Marcus — which one is mispriced?Marcus: The surprising one is Micron, because a memory company is not supposed to trade like this. Memory is the most violently cyclical business in technology — boom, glut, collapse, repeat. And the memo has it at 102 times trailing free cash flow[^memo-mu-evfcf] at a yield under 1%.[^memo-mu-yield] On paper, that’s absurd. Except free cash flow grew more than fivefold off the last trough[^memo-mu-fcf], and the bull thesis is that this time the cycle doesn’t come back — that AI memory demand outruns supply for years, not quarters. 102 times is the market betting the cycle is dead. If memory is still cyclical, this is the top.Marcus: Broadcom is the opposite trade — same supercycle, half the multiple. Going into Wednesday the memo has it at 68 times trailing free cash flow[^memo-avgo-evfcf], on $32 billion of cash it’s already banked[^memo-avgo-fcf] — not a memory company’s hope, actual trailing cash. And Broadcom doesn’t need the cycle to break. It designs the custom chips and the networking that wire a million accelerators into one machine[^news-avgo-network], and it gets paid whether the buyer is Google, Meta, or Anthropic.[^news-avgo-anthropic] Micron is a bet on a shortage. Broadcom is a bet on a standard.Marcus: So here’s what the comparison actually says. One supercycle, and the market trusts one of these names with twice the multiple of the other. Wednesday’s print is the first real referee — if Broadcom’s AI guide holds, the safer way to own this build is the custom-silicon standard, and Micron’s trillion-dollar tag is the one carrying all the cycle risk.Ava: Two ways to own the same boom, priced like a coin flip. Wednesday we find out which side the house is on.Rapid-fire — Lilly, Kratos, and the forward weekAva: Away from the AI-pricing fight, two catalysts moved real money this week — and a few names report before you’re back here next Saturday.Ava: Eli Lilly had the kind of week that resets a franchise — twice. Phase 3 data on retatrutide, its triple-hormone obesity drug, came in at 28% average weight loss over 80 weeks[^news-lly-reta] — that’s bariatric-surgery territory, from an injection. And separately, the one-time gene-editing therapy it picked up in the Verve deal cut bad cholesterol by up to 62% with a single infusion.[^news-lly-verve] Two franchises, two different decades of revenue, one week. Lilly presents the full data at the diabetes meeting in New Orleans, June 5-8[^news-lly-ada] — and that’s a clean segue, because Wednesday’s main show is the healthcare deep dive Hunt, Jason, and Mike have been promising.Ava: Kratos jumped almost 14% in a day[^news-ktos-surge] on a report the Trump administration may take direct financial stakes in U.S. drone manufacturers — the government as an equity investor in its own supply chain. Same week, Kratos and GE Aerospace won a joint Air Force contract to develop the engine for collaborative combat aircraft.[^news-ktos-ge] It’s the Palantir thread again: the Pentagon isn’t just buying defense technology, it’s trying to own the means of producing it.Ava: A few more before Monday. Meta started charging for the thing it always gave away — paid Instagram, Facebook, and WhatsApp tiers went live this week at $3-4 a month.[^news-meta-subs] The company that built an empire on free is now testing whether its users will pay for it. In energy, Hunt made the oil call on Wednesday, so I’ll leave the Strait of Hormuz to him — the company news this week was a handoff at the top of Occidental, where Vicki Hollub steps down and Richard Jackson takes over June 1.[^news-oxy-ceo] And the forward calendar: Broadcom and Five Below both report Wednesday[^earn-five] — Five Below the cleaner tariff read, sourcing well over half its goods from China[^news-five-china] — with Oracle the Wednesday after.[^earn-orcl]Close & Consensus WatchAva: That’s the Weekend Update. Five names, five different prices on the same idea — that AI revenue is real, and growing. Snowflake priced for acceleration. Salesforce priced for death. Palantir priced as a utility. Micron priced like the cycle is finally over. Broadcom priced like the only grown-up in the room. They cannot all be right. Wall Street’s consensus on enterprise AI this week: Snowflake’s the winner, Salesforce is roadkill. Same quarter, both beat — and one of those calls is wrong. Broadcom’s print Wednesday is the first real referee. Hiring data this week from Talnexis — talnexis.com. All of it runs off the Cash Flow Memo, the universe we track every week. Grab it at telltales.us. Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode 2623 — the healthcare deep dive they’ve been teasing for two weeks. We’ll see you Saturday.DisclaimerAva: The views expressed on this podcast are the host alone and do not constitute an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the host nor any of their employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of this information. The host and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future, and may or may not hold positions in the securities mentioned.Sources* A single dose of Lilly’s PCSK9 base editor VERVE-102 reduced PCSK9 by up to 88% and LDL-C by up to 62% with durable effects. (2026, May 27). PR Newswire. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/a-single-dose-of-lillys-pcsk9-base-editor-verve-102-reduced-pcsk9-by-up-to-88-and-ldl-c-by-up-to-62-with-durable-effects-supporting-its-potential-as-a-one-time-treatment-for-hypercholesterolemia-302780172.html (Peer-reviewed: New England Journal of Medicine, https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2601283)* Broadcom (AVGO) set for strong Q2 earnings driven by AI growth. (2026, May 29). GuruFocus. https://www.gurufocus.com/news/8891842/broadcom-avgo-set-for-strong-q2-earnings-driven-by-ai-growth* CRM drops 33% in 2026 despite earnings beat as AI fears overshadow $1.2B Agentforce growth. (2026, May 28). FX Leaders. https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2026/05/28/crm-drops-33-in-2026-despite-earnings-beat-as-ai-fears-overshadow-1-2b-agentforce-growth/* The custom AI ASIC state of play (May 2026): Broadcom deals, Google TPUs, Meta MTIA & beyond. (2026, May). Tom’s Hardware. https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/custom-ai-asics-examined-from-broadcom-to-mtia* Debt financing deal for Anthropic PBC involves Broadcom and Alphabet. (2026, May 28). GuruFocus. https://www.gurufocus.com/news/8890022/debt-financing-deal-for-anthropic-pbc-involves-broadcom-and-alphabet* Does Five Below’s tariff response strategy strengthen its value brand or signal margin strain? (2025, December 25). Sahm Capital. https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/does-five-below-fives-tariff-response-strategy-strengthen-its-value-brand-or-signal-margin-strain-2025-12-25* Eli Lilly (LLY) showcases new findings at ADA’s 86th Scientific Sessions. (2026, May 28). GuruFocus. https://www.gurufocus.com/news/8889220/eli-lilly-lly-showcases-new-findings-at-adas-86th-scientific-sessions* Kratos contract wins deepen role in hypersonics propulsion and space systems. (2026, May 29). Yahoo Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kratos-contract-wins-deepen-role-120929437.html* Lilly’s triple agonist, retatrutide, delivered powerful weight loss in pivotal Phase 3 obesity trial. (2026, May 21). PR Newswire. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/lillys-triple-agonist-retatrutide-delivered-powerful-weight-loss-in-pivotal-phase-3-obesity-trial-302778859.html* Meta officially launches Instagram, Facebook, and WhatsApp subscriptions, with more to come — including AI plans. (2026, May 27). TechCrunch. https://techcrunch.com/2026/05/27/meta-officially-launches-instagram-facebook-and-whatsapp-subscriptions-with-more-to-come-including-ai-plans/* Micron hits $1 trillion market cap for the first time as stock surges 19%. (2026, May 26). CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/26/micron-stock-trillion-market-cap.html* Micron technology: AI-powered semiconductor demand and the capital expenditure question (management can fulfill 50% to two-thirds of customer demand). (2026, May). MarketMinute / FinancialContent. https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/marketminute-2026-3-20-micron-technology-guidance-miss-ai-powered-semiconductor-demand-and-the-capital-expenditure-crisis* Micron’s entire 2026 HBM output sold out. (2026, May). HeyGoTrade. https://www.heygotrade.com/en/blog/mu-stock-analysis/* MU stock outlook May 30 2026: Micron at $1 trillion — AI demand & next-week preview (shares +88% over the past month). (2026, May 30). FX Leaders. https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2026/05/30/mu-stock-outlook-may-30-2026-micron-at-1-trillion-ai-demand-next-week-preview/* Occidental Petroleum. (2026, May 5). Occidental announces CEO succession [Press release]. https://www.oxy.com/news/news-releases/occidental-announces-ceo-succession/* Snowflake. (2026, May 27). Snowflake expands AWS collaboration with $6B commitment to accelerate enterprise agentic AI adoption [Press release]. https://www.snowflake.com/en/news/press-releases/snowflake-expands-aws-collaboration-with-6b-commitment-to-accelerate-enterprise-agentic-ai-adoption/* Snowflake Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings beat, $6 billion AWS deal (product revenue $1.33B, up 34% YoY; EPS $0.39 vs. $0.32 consensus). (2026, May 27). Yahoo Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/snowflake-q1-fiscal-2027-earnings-120043255.html* Snowflake surges 36% for best day ever on AI frenzy, fueling software rally. (2026, May 28). CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/28/snowflake-snow-software-stock-rally.html* Talnexis. (2026, May 24). Salesforce — AI/ML hiring category spike (28 roles in 7 days vs. 5 prior, 5.6x) [Hiring intelligence]. https://www.talnexis.com/* United States Army. (2025, July 31). U.S. Army awards enterprise service agreement to enhance military readiness and drive operational efficiency (75 contracts consolidated; $10B cap over up to 10 years) [Press release]. https://www.army.mil/article/287506/u_s_army_awards_enterprise_service_agreement_to_enhance_military_readiness-and-drive-operational-efficiency* Why Kratos Defense stock popped today (up 13.8% on May 28 following WSJ report the Trump administration may invest directly in U.S. drone manufacturers). (2026, May 28). The Motley Fool. https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/05/28/why-kratos-defense-stock-popped-today/* Why Palantir stock is soaring today (up ~9% on potential U.S. drone-manufacturer funding and software-sector momentum). (2026, May 28). The Motley Fool. https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/05/28/why-palantir-stock-is-soaring-today/* Why Palantir’s new program of record with the Pentagon could be a game changer (Maven Smart System designated a formal program of record, March 2026). (2026, March 31). The Motley Fool. https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/03/31/why-palantir-s-new-program-of-record-with-the-penta/Internal dataInternal data is provided on a best efforts basis.Forward earnings (FMP)* AVGO — Broadcom, 2026-06-03 (Wednesday). Consensus EPS $2.40, revenue ~$22.12B. FMP /stable/earnings?symbol=AVGO, pulled 2026-05-30.* FIVE — Five Below, 2026-06-03 (Wednesday). Consensus EPS $1.76, revenue ~$1.23B. FMP /stable/earnings?symbol=FIVE, pulled 2026-05-30.* ORCL — Oracle, 2026-06-10 (Wednesday). Consensus EPS $1.96, revenue ~$19.10B. FMP /stable/earnings?symbol=ORCL, pulled 2026-05-30. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Hunt, Jason, and Mike break down the freshly filed SpaceX S-1 and ask the only question that matters: how do you justify a $2 trillion valuation on a company with almost no free cash flow? They work through the AI stack, the Starlink connectivity business, and the launch economics that quietly underwrite all of it.The Cashflow MemoKey Takeaways* SpaceX filed its S-1 targeting a ~$2T valuation against negligible free cash flow; Hunt frames it next to Tesla (~$1.5T on ~$6B FCF) as proof you can pile on valuation with no EBITDA or FCF, set against NVIDIA’s new record ~$163B FCF run-rate and Apple’s ~$120B.* The promotional $22T TAM rests mostly on the least-proven leg — AI (Macrohard agentic workloads, applications not yet invented), a Tesla/SpaceX JV pairing Tesla’s world model with xAI’s language models, plus a ~$55B Terafab chip-production plan.* The Anthropic lease puts a mark on the data centers: xAI leasing Colossus-1 to Anthropic at ~$1.5B/month against a * Launch is the real crown jewel, not Starlink: 122 SpaceX launches vs. 43 customer launches in 2025; re-pricing Starlink at market rate lifts space revenue from $4.1B to ~$11B straight to cash. Customer-launch gross margin is 65-75% and rising as cost/kg falls from Falcon’s ~$850 toward Starship’s ~$100 (NASA: ~$19,000); Starship R&D is $4B this year, up from $3B.* Space-based data centers are an extension of Starlink, not a monolith: each Starlink sat is ~25kW of servers, AI racks run ~125kW in sun-synchronous orbit, launched at daily cadence — a distributed inference network. The choke-point thesis: frontier labs (Anthropic/OpenAI/Gemini) may route inference through Starlink for performance, handing SpaceX negotiating leverage. Starlink itself did $11.4B revenue in 2025 at 39% operating / 63% EBITDA margin across 10.3M subs.Show Notes[00:02] Open & Disclaimer Welcome and the standard informational disclaimer.[00:30] Exhibits A, B & C: Energy and the Government’s Books Hunt on oil and gas pricing through the Iran disruption, weak Waha gas curtailing Permian supply, and a fiscal ’27 federal deficit that stays stuck near $1.5T.[05:51] Macro Grab Bag: Grid Curtailment, Taiwan, and Reshoring DOE clears PJM to curtail data-center power in a grid stress event; the hosts reject Chamath’s nobody cares about Taiwan in 18 months call; Gavin Baker’s point that the Iran war helps US reshoring by raising energy costs more abroad than at home.[09:55] NVIDIA & Apple: Free Cash Flow Records NVIDIA at a ~$163B FCF run-rate (new all-time record, eclipsing old Exxon peak), Apple at ~$120B, against $5.6T and ~$4.5T market caps.[11:34] The SpaceX Question: $2T With No Cash Flow Framing the S-1 alongside Tesla — huge valuations attached to businesses not yet generating EBITDA, income, or free cash flow.[12:51] The AI Stack: xAI, Colossus, the Anthropic Lease, Cursor & Macrohard The $22T TAM and its least-proven leg; xAI’s record build speed; Anthropic leasing Colossus-1 at ~$1.5B/month; the Cursor acqui-hire; Macrohard agentic workloads as a Tesla/SpaceX JV; the $55B Terafab plan.[19:05] Starlink: The Supposed Crown Jewel $11.4B 2025 revenue, 39% operating / 63% EBITDA margin, 10.3M subscribers — and why the hosts think the conventional crown jewel label is misplaced.[19:43] Launch Economics: The Real Crown Jewel 122 SpaceX vs. 43 customer launches; backing Starlink out at market rate to reveal true space economics; 65-75% and rising customer-launch margins; cost/kg from Falcon ~$850 toward Starship ~$100 vs. NASA’s ~$19,000.[22:52] Data Centers in Orbit Why a space data center is a distributed network of ~125kW AI racks in sun-synchronous orbit, not a monolith; the physics of power and heat; latency math vs. terrestrial fiber.[25:54] Q&A: Would You Switch? The Choke-Point Thesis, T-Mobile & Space Junk Whether you’d prefer Starlink inference in 24 months; routing frontier-model inference through Starlink as a negotiating choke point; Starlink V3 + T-Mobile direct-to-cell; Kessler-cascade space-junk risk.[32:18] Next Week Healthcare deep dive, then a future episode on Musk’s TSMC-replacement / Terafab vision and space junk.Subscribe and grab the Cashflow Memo at telltales.us.Cashtags$$SPCX $NVDA $AAPL $GOOGL $TSLA $XOM $MSFT $AMZN $TMUS $TSM This post and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

The Cashflow MemoCapital Structure WeekNvidia confirmed the demand picture. Three companies restructured this week to monetize it.The Telltales Weekend Update. Ava Cabot and analyst Marcus Graham walk through what happened this week — and what’s coming next — across the 94 companies in the Cash Flow Memo. About 13 minutes. No filler.Download the memo at telltales.us. Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode E2622.Chapter markers* 0:00 | Opening disclaimer* 0:15 | Cold open + the week’s throughline* 0:45 | Theme — Capital structure week (NextEra, Lantheus, FedEx)* 4:45 | Deep dive — Nvidia Q1 FY27* 8:45 | Rapid-fire — CRM/SNOW pre-prints, Deere, BioNTech, Target/Walmart, Verizon/T-Mobile, Regeneron* 11:45 | Close + Consensus Watch + forward week* 12:30 | Closing disclaimerFull transcriptOpening disclaimerAva: The following conversation is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you.Cold openAva: You’re listening to the Telltales Weekend Update. I’m Ava Cabot.Marcus: And I’m Marcus Graham — the cashflow desk.Ava: Quick note: the show is produced entirely with AI tools, and both voices you’re hearing are AI-generated. Send feedback through the Substack. And this is still a pilot — tell us what’s landing and what isn’t.Ava: Here’s the week. Nvidia confirmed the AI demand picture on Tuesday. And three companies in the memo restructured this week to monetize it. NextEra is buying a $67 billion utility for the power. Lantheus is in sale talks at roughly $7 billion for the radiopharma platform. And FedEx is spinning Freight on June 1. On Wednesday’s show, Hunt, Jason, and Mike walked through Google’s real AI risk — not ChatGPT, but agentic search and Gemini Spark[^ep-e2621]. Today’s show is what the rest of the universe did about it.Theme — Capital structure weekAva: Three restructurings in five days, three different time horizons, one read. Page 18, page 15, page 17 of the memo — all printing the same idea. The AI demand picture is now confirmed enough that companies are willing to redraw their balance sheets around it.Ava: NextEra. $67 billion all-stock bid for Dominion Energy[^news-nee-dominion-20260523]. Combined entity becomes the world’s largest regulated utility, and management is explicit about what it’s for — they’re contracted to build 30+ data center campuses, with 15 to 30 gigawatts of generation by 2035[^news-nee-data-center-campuses-20260523]. Meta already has a 2.5 gigawatt solar-and-storage deal signed[^news-nee-meta-partnership-20260523]. Dominion stock up 9% on the announcement. NextEra down 4%[^news-nee-dominion-20260523].Ava: Lantheus. In talks to sell to Curium at roughly $7 billion — broke Thursday[^news-lnth-curium-20260523]. This is the radiopharma roll-up everyone in oncology imaging has been waiting for. Q1 beat, PYLARIFY TruVu cleared FDA in March with a 50% batch-size lift, and the LNTH-2501 PDUFA lands June 29[^news-lnth-q1-20260523][^news-lnth-pylarify-20260523][^news-lnth-pdufa-20260523].Ava: FedEx. Freight spins June 1 as FDXF[^news-fdx-spinoff-20260523]. Dual-market trading starts Tuesday. FedEx retains a 19.9% stake; the rest goes to holders, tax-free for U.S. federal purposes[^news-fdx-dual-market-20260523][^news-fdx-tax-20260523]. CEO Raj Subramaniam separately dismissed the Amazon-logistics-threat narrative this week[^news-fdx-amazon-20260523]. Marcus — the cashflow take. Start with the one that’s actually changing right now.Marcus: NextEra is the one that matters this week. The memo had them at 28x trailing free cash flow at a 5% yield going in, Q1 10-Q confirmed[^memo-nee-evfcf-20260522]. That’s a clean number for a regulated utility. But the load-bearing line was already debt-to-FCF at 11x trailing[^memo-nee-debtfcf-20260522]. Now they’re eating Dominion’s leverage in an all-stock deal. The trade is: investors get the regulated-utility tail on AI infrastructure that hyperscaler multiples don’t price, and in exchange they take on a balance sheet that will look heavier before it earns through. What to watch on the next print is whether the contracted gigawatt backlog converts fast enough to absorb the debt the deal piles on.Ava: Translation: you bought the utility because the data centers needed the power, not the chips. Lantheus?Marcus: Lantheus is the cleanest balance sheet of the three. The memo had them at 35x trailing free cash flow at a roughly 3% yield, debt-to-FCF basically zero[^memo-lnth-evfcf-20260522][^memo-lnth-debtfcf-20260522]. $7 billion is a reasonable mark on a company with a Q1 beat, a fresh FDA approval, and a PDUFA five weeks out. The radiopharma platform is what Curium is buying — the imaging stack plus the therapeutic pipeline. Not financial engineering. Strategic consolidation in a category where the FDA pipeline is the asset.Ava: And FedEx is the third one — different structure entirely.Marcus: FedEx is the most interesting capital structure of the three. The memo had FDX at 22x trailing free cash flow at a roughly 6% yield, debt-to-FCF at 7.5x[^memo-fdx-evfcf-20260522][^memo-fdx-debtfcf-20260522]. The Freight spin lets the parent re-rate around the express business; the retained stake gives the holdco a forward monetization option. That’s not a tax dodge — that’s management taking the discount the market puts on the bundle and letting it trade separately.Ava: Three balance-sheet decisions, made the same week Nvidia gave you the demand picture they’re all pricing against. Mark that.Deep dive — NvidiaAva: Nvidia’s Q1 fiscal 2027 print, after the close Tuesday. The bull case got everything it asked for. The bear case got nothing it asked for.Ava: Revenue $82 billion, up 85% year-over-year and 20% sequentially[^news-nvda-q1-rev-20260523]. Data Center alone was $75 billion — nearly double the prior-year quarter[^news-nvda-data-center-20260523]. Gross margin held at 75%, essentially flat to Q4[^news-nvda-gm-20260523]. Diluted GAAP EPS $1.87, up 140%[^news-nvda-eps-20260523].Ava: Then they guided. Q2 revenue $91 billion, plus-or-minus 2%[^news-nvda-q2-guide-20260523]. Margin guide held at 75%[^news-nvda-margin-guide-20260523]. Blackwell 300 and the B200 line sold out through mid-2026 per management[^news-nvda-blackwell-demand-20260523]. Rubin platform confirmed for Q3 launch this year, Rubin Ultra in H2 2027[^news-nvda-rubin-20260523].Ava: And then the capital return. They raised the dividend 25-fold — from $0.01 to $0.25 per share — and authorized an additional $80 billion of buybacks[^news-nvda-capital-allocation-20260523]. Marcus, the cashflow take.Marcus: Nvidia just gave you the next twelve months of justification in one forward number. The memo had them at 50x trailing free cash flow at about a 2% yield going in, Q4 FY26 10-K confirmed[^memo-nvda-evfcf-20260522]. We re-anchor when the Q1 10-Q files. The $91 billion Q2 guide is what changes the read[^news-nvda-q2-guide-20260523] — that’s a single quarter of revenue close to the company’s entire trailing-twelve free cash flow base[^memo-nvda-fcf-20260522]. The multiple was never the problem here. The problem was always whether the Q2 guide would hold the rate of change. It did.Ava: One sentence on why the dividend matters.Marcus: It signals that Jensen Huang now believes the cash generation is structural, not cyclical. You don’t 25x the dividend on a company you think is at the top. The $80 billion buyback authorization is the second signal — they’re going to be in the open market accumulating their own equity while the next product cycle ramps. The question for the next print isn’t whether the demand is real. The question is whether anything in the Blackwell-to-Rubin transition slips, because at this multiple, any timing miss is the entire risk.Ava: And the consensus narrative on the print?Marcus: Wall Street had a version of the law of large numbers eats Nvidia by 2027. The Q2 $91 billion guide just told you the law of large numbers gets eaten first. Bear modelers said this rate of change couldn’t continue at this base. They were wrong, and they’re going to be wrong again next quarter unless something physical breaks in the supply chain.Ava: So the bear case now has to argue physics, not math. Two prints from now, mark the calendar.Rapid-fireAva: Five forward-week catalysts and one governance shock to close. Buckle up.Ava: Page 2 of the memo — Salesforce and Snowflake both report after the close Tuesday[^earn-crm][^earn-snow]. Consensus on Salesforce: $3.12 EPS, $11 billion revenue[^earn-crm]. Consensus on Snowflake: $0.32, $1.3 billion[^earn-snow]. The Salesforce setup has CEO Marc Benioff committing $300 million of Anthropic token spend for the year, with AI coding agents delivering 30% engineering productivity gains and no incremental engineering hires[^news-crm-benioff-anthropic-20260523]. And per Talnexis hiring data, Salesforce’s AI/ML postings spiked 5.6x in the last 7 days — 28 new roles versus 5 the week prior — heading straight into the print[^tlnx-crm-aiml-20260523]. Memo had Salesforce at 28x trailing free cash flow going in, Q4 10-K confirmed[^memo-crm-evfcf-20260522]. Re-anchor Wednesday morning.Ava: Snowflake is the harder one. Memo can’t anchor on a multiple — trailing free cash flow runs negative, capex still scaling against the AI workload ramp[^memo-snow-fcf-20260522]. What prices Snowflake right now is Cortex AI adoption — 9,100 customer accounts, 200%+ YoY AI-workload growth, NRR holding at 125%, RPO accelerating 42% year-over-year[^news-snow-cortex-20260523][^news-snow-nrr-20260523]. And the Talnexis hiring tracker shows Snowflake’s Partnerships postings up 5.5x in 7 days — 11 new partnerships roles versus 2 the week prior[^tlnx-snow-partnerships-20260523]. The pre-print read: the ecosystem-monetization push is hiring like it’s a real business.Ava: Deere reported Wednesday. EPS $6.55 against $5.74 consensus, a 14% beat[^news-de-q2-earnings-20260521]. But the composition is the story. Construction and Forestry revenue up 29%, op profit up 48%[^news-de-construction-20260521]. Production and Precision Ag revenue down 14%, op profit down 39%[^news-de-ag-decline-20260521]. And $272 million of the beat came from a Supreme Court IEEPA tariff recovery[^news-de-tariff-20260521]. Strip that out, the print is in-line at best. Construction is booming, farmers are buying nothing, and the tariff lawyers paid the difference.Ava: BioNTech. Q1 loss of €531.9 million — and the company is buying back €1 billion of stock into it[^news-bntx-q1-loss-20260523]. What they’re spending on is BNT327, their lead bispecific antibody. Phase 2 small-cell lung cancer just printed 16.8 months median overall survival[^news-bntx-bnt327-survival-20260523]. Phase 3 push is on, with combination trials running across non-small-cell lung, triple-negative breast, and pancreatic[^news-bntx-bnt327-combos-20260523]. The loss is real. The platform bet is what’s getting funded.Ava: Page 8 — Target and Walmart, same week, opposite reads. Target beat on Q1 comps up 5.6% — their first positive comp in five quarters — and raised the full-year guide[^news-tgt-q1-20260523][^news-tgt-guidance-20260523]. Walmart printed strong e-commerce growth — 26% globally, marketplace up nearly 50% — and the stock fell 7% on a cautious full-year guide[^news-wmt-ecom-20260523][^news-wmt-earnings-20260523]. Same consumer. Same week. Two different reads on what Walmart’s franchise actually sees ahead of it.Ava: Page 6 — both wireless carrier CEO chairs moved this week. Dan Schulman in at Verizon, Hans Vestberg to Special Advisor through October[^news-vz-ceo-20260523]. Srini Gopalan in at T-Mobile in six weeks, Mike Sievert to vice chairman[^news-tmus-ceo-20260523]. And the same week — Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile announced a three-way joint venture on direct-to-device satellite to compete with Starlink, while T-Mobile separately launched SuperBroadband with Starlink at $250 a month[^news-tmus-jv-20260523][^news-tmus-starlink-20260523]. Read into the timing what you will.Ava: And Regeneron — fianlimab-plus-Libtayo missed primary endpoint in the 1,546-patient melanoma Phase 3, lost head-to-head to Keytruda, stock down 10.5% on the news[^news-regn-melanoma-20260523]. The Eylea HD extended-dosing approval and Dupixent’s 33% Q1 growth are still there[^news-regn-eylea-20260523][^news-regn-dupixent-20260523]. But the oncology pipeline just took a real hit.CloseAva: That’s the show. Wall Street’s consensus on the week: Nvidia was priced for perfection going in, and the print was the test. They were half right. It was priced for perfection. It also delivered perfection. The next test is whether Salesforce and Snowflake confirm the Agentforce and Cortex traction Tuesday afternoon.Ava: Hiring data this week from Talnexis — talnexis.com.Ava: Forward week — Salesforce and Snowflake Tuesday after the close, Costco Wednesday, Broadcom and Five Below on June 3. Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode 2622 — Hunt teased a surprise topic in place of the usual healthcare slot[^ep-e2621]. Get the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us.Closing disclaimerAva: The views expressed on this podcast are the host alone and do not constitute an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the host nor any of their employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of this information. The host and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future, and may or may not hold positions in the securities mentioned.Sources* BioNTech Investor Relations. (2026, May). BioNTech clinical data at ELCC 2026 highlight potential of differentiated late-stage portfolio in lung cancer [Press release]. https://investors.biontech.de/news-releases/news-release-details/biontech-clinical-data-elcc-2026-highlight-potential* Fierce Biotech. (2026, May). BioNTech shows off lung cancer survival data behind phase 3 push for red-hot bispecific. https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/biontech-shows-lung-cancer-survival-data-behind-phase-3-push-red-hot-bispecific* Canary Media. (2026, May 18). NextEra Energy wants to buy its way into Data Center Alley. https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/utilities/nextera-energy-wants-to-buy-its-way-into-data-center-alley* Carbon Credits. (2026, May). Meta and NextEra partner for a big solar and storage energy deal. https://carboncredits.com/meta-and-nextera-partner-for-a-big-solar-and-storage-energy-deal/* CNBC. (2026, May 12). FedEx CEO brushes off Amazon’s new logistics service that recently sent shares tumbling. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/12/fed-ex-ceo-jim-cramer-amazon-logistics.html* CNBC. (2026, May 18). NextEra Energy (NEE) to buy Dominion Energy (D). https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/18/nextera-nee-dominion-energy-d-data-center-ai.html* CNBC. (2026, May 18). Regeneron drops after skin cancer treatment misses late-stage trial goal. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/18/regeneron-drops-after-skin-cancer-treatment-misses-late-stage-trial-goal.html* CNBC. (2026, May 20). Nvidia (NVDA) earnings report Q1 2027. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/20/nvidia-nvda-earnings-report-q1-2027.html* CNBC. (2026, May 21). Walmart issues worse-than-expected outlook as high gas prices hit shoppers, shares drop 7%. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/21/walmart-wmt-earnings-q1-2027.html* Eyewire+. (2026). Regeneron secures FDA approval to extend Eylea HD dosing intervals to up to 20 weeks. https://eyewire.news/news/regeneron-secures-fda-approval-to-extend-eylea-hd-dosing-intervals-to-up-to-20-weeks* FedEx Investor News. (2026, May 13). FedEx board of directors approves spin-off of FedEx Freight [Press release]. https://investors.fedex.com/news-and-events/investor-news/investor-news-details/2026/FedEx-Board-of-Directors-Approves-Spin-off-of-FedEx-Freight/default.aspx* Financial Content. (2025, December 29). Nvidia’s Blackwell dynasty: B200 and GB200 sold out through mid-2026 as backlog hits 3.6 million units. https://markets.financialcontent.com/wral/article/tokenring-2025-12-29-nvidias-blackwell-dynasty-b200-and-gb200-sold-out-through-mid-2026-as-backlog-hits-3-6-million-units* GeekWire. (2026, May 23). T-Mobile enlists Starlink satellites for new SuperBroadband business internet service. https://www.geekwire.com/2026/t-mobile-enlists-starlink-satellites-for-new-superbroadband-business-internet-service/* Investing.com. (2026, April 29). Regeneron beats first quarter estimates on Dupixent strength. https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/regeneron-beats-first-quarter-estimates-on-dupixent-strength-4644258* Lantheus Holdings. (2026, March 6). Lantheus announces FDA approval of PYLARIFY TruVu™ (piflufolastat F 18) Injection [Press release]. https://investor.lantheus.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lantheus-announces-fda-approval-pylarify-truvutm-piflufolastat-f* Lantheus Holdings. (2026, May 7). Form 10-Q FY2026 [SEC filing]. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001521036/000119312526210373/lnth-20260331.htm* Lopez, M. (2026, May 22). Lantheus (LNTH) weighs potential $7 billion sale following offer from Curium. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-22/lantheus-is-said-to-weigh-sale-following-offer-from-curium* MarketBeat. (2026, May 20). NVIDIA Corp. Q1 FY2027 earnings report. https://www.marketbeat.com/earnings/reports/2026-5-20-nvidia-co-stock/* MarketBeat. (2026, May 21). Deere & Company Q2 2026 earnings report. https://www.marketbeat.com/earnings/reports/2026-5-21-deere-company-stock/* Morningstar. (2026, May 12). FedEx board of directors approves spin-off of FedEx Freight. https://www.morningstar.com/news/business-wire/20260512056825/fedex-board-of-directors-approves-spin-off-of-fedex-freight* NVIDIA Newsroom. (n.d.). Rubin platform AI supercomputer [Press release]. https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/rubin-platform-ai-supercomputer* Quartz. (2026, May 20). Target Q1 2026 earnings beat: Sales surge, outlook raised. https://qz.com/target-earnings-sales-growth-full-year-outlook-052026* Quiver Quantitative. (2026, May 7). Lantheus Holdings ($LNTH) releases Q1 2026 earnings. https://www.quiverquant.com/news/LANTHEUS+HOLDINGS+%28%24LNTH%29+Releases+Q1+2026+Earnings* Salesforce. (n.d.). Marc Benioff says Salesforce will spend $300M on Anthropic in 2026. Yahoo Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/marc-benioff-says-salesforce-spend-133651072.html* Simply Wall St. (2026, May 23). Assessing BioNTech (BNTX) valuation after prolonged share price weakness and loss-making results. https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/pharmaceuticals-biotech/nasdaq-bntx/biontech/news/assessing-biontech-bntx-valuation-after-prolonged-share-pric* Snowflake. (n.d.). Snowflake Inc. Q4 FY2026 earnings 8-K [SEC filing]. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001640147/000162828026011631/fy2026q4earnings.htm* StockInvest.us. (n.d.). Snowflake earnings report: Key numbers & transcript summary. https://stockinvest.us/earnings-report/SNOW* Target Corporate. (2026, May 20). Target Q1 2026 earnings highlights [Press release]. https://corporate.target.com/news-features/article/2026/05/q1-2026-earnings* Telecoms.com. (2026, May 23). Gopalan to replace Sievert as T-Mobile US CEO in six weeks. https://www.telecoms.com/operator-ecosystem/gopalan-to-replace-sievert-as-t-mobile-us-ceo-in-six-weeks/* Teslarati. (2026, May 23). SpaceX just forced Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile to team up for the first time in history. https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-starlink-vs-verizon-att-tmobile-d2d-direct-device/* Verizon. (n.d.). Verizon announces CEO transition [Press release]. https://www.verizon.com/about/news/verizon-announces-ceo-transition* Walmart Inc. (2026, May 21). Form 8-K — earnings release FY27 Q1 [SEC filing]. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000104169/000010416926000095/earningspresentationfy27.htm* Yahoo Finance. (2026, May 21). Deere & Co (DE) Q2 2026 earnings call highlights: Strong sales growth amidst challenges. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/deere-co-q2-2026-earnings-230050659.html* 24/7 Wall St. (2026, May 21). Deere (DE) Q2 2026 earnings call transcript. https://247wallst.com/companies/de/earnings/Internal dataInternal data is provided on a best efforts basis.Hiring intelligence dataHiring data this week from Talnexis — talnexis.com. Talnexis tracks 98 top tech companies and refreshes hiring intelligence daily from public job boards.* CRM — Salesforce: AI_HIRING_SURGE on AI/ML postings (28 roles in 7d vs 5 prior, 5.6x). Detected 2026-05-23. Source: https://www.talnexis.com/* SNOW — Snowflake: CATEGORY_SPIKE on Partnerships postings (11 roles in 7d vs 2 prior, 5.5x). Detected 2026-05-23. Source: https://www.talnexis.com/Earnings calendarSource: FMP /api/v3/earning_calendar, pulled 2026-05-23. Filtered to the 94-ticker Cashflow Memo universe.* CRM — Salesforce: 2026-05-27 AMC. Consensus EPS $3.12, revenue $11.05B* SNOW — Snowflake: 2026-05-27 AMC. Consensus EPS $0.32, revenue $1.32B* COST — Costco: 2026-05-28. Consensus EPS $4.98, revenue $69.61B* AVGO — Broadcom: 2026-06-03. Consensus EPS $2.40, revenue $22.04B* FIVE — Five Below: 2026-06-03. Consensus EPS $1.71, revenue $1.21B This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Hunt Lawrence, Mike Nicoletti, and Jason Wallace unpack why the Hormuz panic doesn’t hold, where Google’s real AI risk actually lives, and how the PBM business model is unwinding in real time. Get the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us.The Cashflow MemoKey Takeaways* Hunt’s oil base case holds at $90 (Brent $108 / WTI $104 today) against consensus $150 calls: Saudi Aramco already posted higher March cash flow routing crude to the Red Sea, ADNOC is twinning the Oman→Fujairah line, Iraq/Kuwait are moving barrels by truck-and-pipe through Syria, and Iran loses leverage over time even without a nuclear deal.* Exhibit A is straining on interest expense (10Y at 4.5% vs. the 3.5% baseline assumption); Mike’s debt/GDP-stabilization-near-100% bet leans on Claude-class AI compressing Medicare/Medicaid spend into flat-to-declining, with defense and interest as the other binding lines.* Google ran from $162 to $400 in 52 weeks: AI Overviews defused the visible ChatGPT threat, but the real risk is agentic search rewiring monetization (Exa just raised $225M at $2B+ from a16z), and Jason posits a chunk of Google’s incremental search revenue is OpenAI paying for web-index grounding.* Gemini Spark (I/O) is Google playing innovator’s-dilemma offense, a 24/7 personal agent running across Gmail/Calendar/Drive that no entrant can replicate without Google’s existing data perimeter; the Google + Meta + Amazon ad-network moat remains durable enough that OpenAI is retreating to Anthropic-style subscription revenue.* PBM pricing power is unwinding in real time: Trump Rx relaunched with Cost Plus Drug + Amazon Fulfillment backends (drugs at ~25% of copay), UNH/OptumRx moving to a transparent flat-fee model and dropping prior auth on 30% of minor procedures, CVS adding biosimilars, and Lilly’s DTC channel proving out, all setting up a healthcare-investment deep dive in two weeks.Show Notes[00:00] Welcome to Telltales Mike opens the show and points listeners to this week’s Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us.[00:18] Disclaimer Standard disclosure.[00:31] Exhibits A, B, C — Oil, Hormuz, and the Federal Deficit Hunt walks through how Saudi Aramco, ADNOC, Iraq, and Kuwait are routing barrels around Hormuz via Red Sea ports, the Fujairah pipeline, and Syrian truck-and-pipe corridors. Why consensus $150 oil is wrong and Hunt’s $90 base case holds. Closes on interest expense and Medicare/Medicaid as the binding lines on Exhibit A.[06:52] More than Moats: Google Hunt frames Alphabet as the latest More than Moats target after Lilly, Nvidia, Goldman, and Microsoft. Mike and Jason work through the antitrust outcome (Chrome retained, web-index data opened to competitors), AI Overviews defending low-intent queries, and the real risk: agentic search and Exa’s $225M raise.[13:04] Google I/O and Gemini Spark Jason walks through I/O announcements including the new content-credentialing system and Gemini Spark, Google’s always-on personal agent running across Gmail, Calendar, and Drive. Why no entrant can replicate this without Google’s existing data perimeter.[15:34] The Advertising Moat Hunt frames Google + Meta + Amazon as a durable ad-network oligopoly. Why OpenAI’s billion-user advertising thesis is failing and the pivot back to Anthropic-style subscription revenue.[19:53] Healthcare: PBMs, Trump Rx, and Lilly DTC Jason walks through Bill Cassidy’s primary loss, Trump Rx’s relaunch on Cost Plus Drug and Amazon Fulfillment rails, CVS adding biosimilars, OptumRx moving to a transparent flat-fee PBM model, UnitedHealth dropping prior auth on 30% of minor procedures, and Eli Lilly’s working DTC channel.[23:50] Fixing the Premium Side Hunt asks how to bring the same rationalization to monthly health insurance premiums. Mike on diagnostic-monitoring opt-in plans with discounted premiums; Hunt on quarterly rebate structures that reward healthier behavior. Why emergency care is the structural hard problem.[29:33] Healthcare Investment Ideas — Two-Week Prep Hunt commits the team to identifying three or four entities running rational healthcare models that could be good investments. Surprise topic next Wednesday; healthcare deep dive in two weeks.[30:38] Sign-Off Stay healthy, back next Wednesday.Subscribe wherever you listen, and grab the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us.Cashtags$GOOGL $AMZN $AAPL $MSFT $NVDA $META $CVS $LLY $UNH $GS This post and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

The Cashflow MemoEarnings Week Is a Split Screen — Nvidia, the Big-Box Gauntlet, and the Retail Read-AcrossThe AI trade and the tariff trade get tested on the same three days. By Friday, the market knows which side delivered.The Telltales Weekend Update. Ava Cabot and analyst Marcus Graham walk through what happened this week — and what’s coming next — across the 86 companies in the Cash Flow Memo. About 13 minutes. No filler.Download the memo at telltales.us. Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode E2621.Chapter markers* Time | Segment* 0:00 | Opening disclaimer* 0:15 | Cold open & this week’s split screen* 0:45 | Theme — The Big-Box Gauntlet (HD, LOW, TGT, WMT)* 4:45 | Deep dive — Nvidia going into Q1 FY27* 8:45 | Rapid-fire — EQT, UnitedHealth, Microsoft* 11:45 | Close & Consensus Watch* 12:30 | Closing disclaimerFull transcriptOpening disclaimerAva: The following conversation is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you.Cold openAva: You’re listening to the Telltales Weekend Update. I’m Ava Cabot.Marcus: And I’m Marcus Graham — the cashflow desk.Ava: Quick note: the show is produced entirely with AI tools, and both voices you’re hearing are AI-generated. Send feedback through the Substack. We’re still in the early run of the show — listener feedback is shaping what we do.Ava: This week is a split screen. Nvidia prints Wednesday after the close. The big-box retailers print Tuesday through Thursday — Home Depot, Lowe’s, Target, Walmart. The AI trade and the tariff trade get tested on the same three days. By Friday, the market knows which side delivered.Ava: On Wednesday’s main show, Hunt, Jason, and Mike walked through Meta as the most profitable AI application ever built — the answer to whether AI capex actually compounds back into the income statement[^ep-e2620]. This week the test moves to the picks-and-shovels side. Nvidia. And the read-across to whether the tariff regime is showing up at the cash register.Theme — The Big-Box GauntletAva: On page 8 of the memo this week — Home Depot Tuesday morning[^earn-hd], Lowe’s and Target Wednesday before the open[^earn-low][^earn-tgt], Walmart Thursday[^earn-wmt]. Four big-box prints, three days, one customer.Ava: The customer is the same — middle America, mortgage-burdened, tariff-exposed. The wound isn’t.Ava: Home Depot is the only one of the four where the stock has already done the work. 25% off the 52-week high going into the print[^hd-performance-20260513]. Reports Tuesday at 9:00 AM ET, $3.42 consensus on $41.6B[^hd-earnings-20260505]. Truist cut its price target from $424 to $394 three days ago[^hd-truist-20260512]. And management already told everyone they will source no more than 10% of products from any single foreign country — that’s the tariff hedge, on the record, before the print[^hd-tariffs-20260512].Ava: Lowe’s is the rare print where two top-tier analysts disagree on the same number. Reports Wednesday before the open. $2.96 EPS on $23B[^earn-low]. Citi upgraded to Buy on May 12, $285 target — they cited four straight quarters of positive comps[^low-citi-upgrade-20260512]. BofA downgraded to Neutral on May 5, $260 target — they cited housing turnover at multi-decade lows[^low-bofa-downgrade-20260505]. Same company. Same week. Two completely different setups.Ava: Target is the only one of the four printing into a customer base that left. Reports Wednesday before the open — same morning as Lowe’s. Consensus $1.41 on $24.5B[^tgt-earnings-20260515]. Foot traffic at Target stores is down year-over-year for 25 of the last 27 weeks since the January DEI announcement[^tgt-dei-20260515]. The boycott officially ended in March — with no new diversity commitments. And Ulta Beauty is walking out of the partnership in August after five years[^tgt-ulta-20260515].Ava: Walmart is the only one of the four restructuring while expanding. New CEO John Furner cut 1,000 corporate roles this week[^wmt-restructuring-20260513]. Prints Thursday. $0.65 on $175B. The ad business is up 50% year-over-year and the U.S. e-commerce business posted its first profitable quarter globally[^wmt-ad-growth-20260323][^wmt-ecom-profit-20260215]. The memo can’t anchor Walmart — trailing-twelve free cash flow is negative because of capex[^memo-wmt-fcf-20260515]. Marcus stays off the name.Ava: Marcus, two of these are pricing differently than they look. The cashflow take.Marcus: Target is the wounded one in the gauntlet, and the memo isn’t pricing it as wounded yet. 24x trailing free cash flow on $3B of TTM FCF, 10-K confirmed[^memo-tgt-evfcf-20260515][^memo-tgt-fcf-20260515]. The market is pricing Target like the foot-traffic hole closes on its own — 25 of the last 27 weeks say it doesn’t[^tgt-dei-20260515]. The gross-margin guide Wednesday morning is what tells you which side is closer to right.Marcus: Home Depot is the cleanest test of the four. 24x trailing free cash flow on $16B of TTM FCF, 10-K confirmed[^memo-hd-evfcf-20260515][^memo-hd-fcf-20260515]. That’s not punitive for the share-leader of home improvement. The stock is 25% off the high — most of that move is housing turnover, not Home Depot losing share[^hd-performance-20260513]. The test Tuesday morning is whether the pro-contractor segment is actually offsetting DIY weakness[^hd-contractor-20260224], or whether management has been packaging hope as a thesis.Ava: Two prints, two questions. Whether the foot traffic comes back at Target. Whether the pro contractor is real at Home Depot. Lowe’s settles a disagreement between two analysts. And Walmart has to convince anyone watching that cutting jobs is part of the growth story, not in spite of it.Deep dive — NvidiaAva: Nvidia. Wednesday after the close. This is the most consequential print of the year.Ava: Consensus is $1.74 EPS on $78B in revenue, plus or minus 2%[^nvda-fy27-guidance-202605][^nvda-earnings-consensus-202605][^earn-nvda]. Blackwell B200 and GB200 are sold out through mid-2026 on a backlog described as, quote, insane — 3.6 million units[^nvda-blackwell-backlog-202605]. Hyperscaler capex for 2026 is guided at $725B, up 77% year over year[^nvda-hyperscaler-capex-202605]. Nvidia takes roughly 90% of the AI accelerator dollar inside that.Ava: Now the China complication. On March 5, Nvidia halted all H200 production for China — about 400,000 units of orders that don’t get filled, roughly $30B of walked-away revenue[^nvda-h200-halt-202605]. Then this week, Jensen Huang rode Air Force One to Beijing. For context — Trump brought 17 CEOs to China; only two got Air Force One seats. Musk and Huang[^nvda-huang-trump-202605]. Huang secured U.S. export approval for H200 sales to 10 Chinese firms — Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, JD.com — opening an estimated $50B annual market[^nvda-china-h200-202605]. And then Beijing told its tech companies to pause orders while the government decides on import approval[^nvda-china-h200-pause-202605].Ava: And one more. The Rubin platform was announced at CES — 5x Blackwell on inference, 3.5x Blackwell on training, 10x reduction in inference token cost[^nvda-rubin-202605][^nvda-rubin-economics-202605]. Production ramps the back half of this year. AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft, and Oracle are first in line.Ava: Marcus, the cashflow take.Marcus: Nvidia going into Wednesday night is the only mega-cap in the AI stack where the multiple looks reasonable against the cash. 50x trailing free cash flow on $103B of TTM FCF, fiscal year 2026 10-K confirmed[^memo-nvda-evfcf-20260515][^memo-nvda-fcf-20260515]. Free cash flow grew about 80% year over year[^memo-nvda-fcfgrowth-20260515]. That’s the reasonable end of expensive in the AI stack — and reasonable means the math has to keep compounding. The test Wednesday isn’t the print. It’s whether the Q2 guide carries Rubin pricing.Ava: The China story — net positive or net negative for the next twelve months?Marcus: Net positive. And that’s the contrarian read. The H200 halt walked away from roughly $30B in China revenue, which everyone scored as a loss. But Nvidia carries a $95B supply commitment with TSMC[^nvda-tsmc-supply-202605]. That capacity doesn’t sit idle — it reallocates to Vera Rubin. So the trade is: walk away from H200 China at H200 margins, redirect TSMC capacity to the highest-priced product in the lineup. That’s the better margin trade. The export approval and the China pause net to noise — Nvidia keeps the option, the 10 Chinese firms stay in the queue. The downside case is the policy whiplash recurs and the option goes to zero. Probability-weighted, I take the trade.Ava: And what changes the read after Wednesday?Marcus: The demand side is set. Hyperscaler capex guided up 77% this year[^nvda-hyperscaler-capex-202605], Nvidia at the center of the dollar. The variable is Rubin pricing on the Q2 call. The new platform is 5x Blackwell on inference[^nvda-rubin-202605]. If management talks Rubin pricing on Wednesday, the multiple has room. If they don’t, this is as good as the cycle gets — and the next derate comes in the back half. The print is consensus minus surprise. The guide is the trade.Ava: So the question Wednesday night isn’t whether Nvidia beats. It’s whether Rubin shows up in the language.Rapid-fireAva: Three quick ones, a forward week sweep, and we’re out.Ava: EQT just printed the best quarter in its history. Q1 free cash flow of $1.8B exceeded the company’s full-year 2022 free cash flow[^eqt-fcf-20260513]. Net debt fell below $5.7B[^eqt-debt-20260513]. Fitch upgraded EQT to investment grade BBB and Citi upgraded to Buy on May 13[^eqt-earnings-20260513][^eqt-citi-20260513]. The company is openly marketing itself as the preferred power partner for Appalachian AI data centers through the 2030s[^eqt-datacenters-202604]. The memo has EQT at 14x trailing free cash flow at an 8% yield[^memo-eqt-evfcf-20260515][^memo-eqt-fcfyield-20260515]. Natural gas isn’t a commodity story this year. It’s an AI infrastructure story. EQT is the cleanest expression of it.Ava: UnitedHealth is the year’s biggest comeback so far. Stock hit a 52-week high of $404 on Tuesday. 47% off the March lows[^unh-stock-recovery-20260513]. Q1 EPS of $7.23 beat consensus by $0.47[^unh-q1-earnings-20260421]. The CFO committed $1.5B to AI this year and claimed 2:1 returns inside 12 months[^unh-ai-investment-20260512]. The memo has UnitedHealth at 5x trailing free cash flow at an 18.5% yield[^memo-unh-evfcf-20260515][^memo-unh-fcfyield-20260515]. That yield is what’s pricing the DOJ Medicare billing investigation that’s still open[^unh-doj-investigation-20260512]. The recovery is real. The shadow is also real.Ava: Microsoft just got a new bull. Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square disclosed a $2.1B position this week — accumulated since February — calling Microsoft, quote, a highly compelling valuation[^msft-ackman-disclosure-20260515]. The memo has Microsoft at 135x trailing free cash flow[^memo-msft-evfcf-20260515]. Marcus has been calling that not compelling. One of them is wrong — it’s a fair fight. The pressure point is free cash flow margin, which compressed from 29% to 19% year over year because of AI capex[^msft-fcf-margin-20260414]. Either Azure scales the dollar back into the margin, or Ackman is buying the most expensive software stock of the cycle.Ava: Forward week. Costco prints May 28[^earn-cost], Salesforce May 27[^earn-crm], Deere Thursday alongside Walmart[^earn-de]. We pick those up next Saturday.CloseAva: That’s the show. The split-screen week starts Tuesday morning. By the time Marcus and I are back next Saturday, the market will have decided which side delivered.Ava: Wall Street’s consensus on the week — Nvidia beats and retail misses. The risk is that one of those is fully in the tape.Ava: Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode 2621 with the Nvidia post-mortem, the retail read-across, and a deep dive on Google.Ava: Subscribe and download this week’s Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us. 86 companies across 20 pages. The same memo we anchor every beat on. See you next Saturday.Closing disclaimerAva: The views expressed on this podcast are the host alone and do not constitute an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the host nor any of their employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of this information. The host and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future, and may or may not hold positions in the securities mentioned.Sources* Ad-Hoc News. (2026, May 13). EQT Corp stock (US26884L1098): Citi upgrades to Buy after strong Q1. https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/ueberblick/eqt-corp-stock-us26884l1098-citi-upgrades-to-buy-after-strong-q1/69322288* Alphastreet. (2026, May 15). Target Q1 2026 earnings preview — May 20, Street expects $1.41 EPS. https://news.alphastreet.com/target-q1-2026-earnings-preview-may-20-street-expects-1-41-eps/* CFO Dive. (2026, May 12). Home Depot warns of tariff impact, modest price hikes. https://www.cfodive.com/news/home-depot-warns-tariff-impact-modest-price-hikes/758202/* CNBC. (2026, May 13). HD: Home Depot Inc — stock price, quote and news. https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/HD* CNBC. (2026, May 13). Walmart cuts 1,000 roles to simplify operations, Reuters reports. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/13/walmart-cuts-1000-roles-to-simplify-operations-reports.html* CNBC. (2026, April 21). UnitedHealth Group reports Q1 2026 earnings. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/21/unitedhealth-group-unh-earnings-q1-2026.html* Financial Content Markets. (2026, May). Nvidia’s Blackwell dynasty: B200 and GB200 sold out through mid-2026 as backlog hits 3.6 million units. https://markets.financialcontent.com/wral/article/tokenring-2025-12-29-nvidias-blackwell-dynasty-b200-and-gb200-sold-out-through-mid-2026-as-backlog-hits-3-6-million-units* Fortune. (2026, May 15). Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square takes Microsoft stake on OpenAI, Azure spending. https://fortune.com/2026/05/15/bill-ackman-microsoft-stock-openai-azure-spending/* GuruFocus. (2026, May 13). UnitedHealth Group (UNH) hits new high as strong earnings propel stock surge. https://www.gurufocus.com/news/8856079/unitedhealth-group-unh-hits-new-high-as-strong-earnings-propel-stock-surge* Insider Monkey. (2026, May 12). Citi recommends buying Lowe’s (LOW) as a cyclical share gainer. https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/citi-recommends-buying-lowes-low-as-a-cyclical-share-gainer-1760400/* Investing.com. (2026, May 13). Earnings call transcript: EQT Corporation Q1 2026 delivers strong results, stock rises. https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-eqt-corporation-q1-2026-delivers-strong-results-stock-rises-93CH-4629992* Marcellus Drilling News. (2026, April). EQT targets AI data center power demand in Southwest PA. https://marcellusdrilling.com/2026/04/eqt-targets-ai-data-center-power-demand-in-southwest-pa/* MarketScreener. (2026, May 12). Bank of America Securities 2026 Global Healthcare Conference — UnitedHealth presentation. https://www.marketscreener.com/news/bank-of-america-securities-2026-global-healthcare-conference-a-presentation-05-12-2026-00-00-00-ce7f5bdfda88f525* Medical Economics. (2026, May 12). UnitedHealth Group under DOJ investigation over Medicare billing practices. https://www.medicaleconomics.com/view/unitedhealth-group-under-doj-investigation-over-medicare-billing-practices* Morningstar. (2026, May). Ahead of earnings, is Nvidia stock a Buy, a Sell, or Fairly Valued?. https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/ahead-earnings-is-nvidia-stock-buy-sell-or-fairly-valued-3* NVIDIA Newsroom. (2026, May 14). NVIDIA launches next-generation Rubin AI compute platform at CES 2026 [Press release]. https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/rubin-platform-ai-supercomputer* NVIDIA Newsroom. (2026, May). NVIDIA unveils Rubin CPX: A new class of GPU designed for massive-context inference [Press release]. https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-unveils-rubin-cpx-a-new-class-of-gpu-designed-for-massive-context-inference* Quartz. (2026, May). China reportedly moves to pause Nvidia H200 orders. https://qz.com/nvidia-china-h200-chip-sales-us-trump-policy* 24/7 Wall St. (2026, May 5). Lowe’s just got yanked from the BofA Buy List: Is the home improvement trade stalling?. https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/05/05/lowes-just-got-yanked-from-the-bofa-buy-list-is-the-home-improvement-trade-stalling/* 24/7 Wall St. (2026, May 14). Did Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang just unlock the $50 billion China market?. https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/05/14/did-nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-just-unlock-the-50-billion-china-market/* 24/7 Wall St. (2026, May 14). Trump brought 17 CEOs to China. Only two got seats on Air Force One: Elon Musk and Jensen Huang. https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/05/14/trump-brought-17-ceos-to-china-only-two-got-seats-on-air-force-one-elon-musk-and-jensen-huang/* The Home Depot Investor Relations. (2026, May 5). The Home Depot to host first quarter earnings conference call on May 19 [Press release]. https://ir.homedepot.com/news-releases/2026/05-05-2026-130040601* TipRanks. (2026, May). Nvidia stock forecast 2026 — what top financial analysts expect ahead of Q1 earnings. https://www.tipranks.com/news/nvidia-stock-hits-all-time-highs-ahead-of-q1-earnings-what-top-financial-analysts-expect-from-here* Tom’s Hardware. (2026, May 14). Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon capex spending to hit $725 billion in 2026, up 77% from last year. https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/big-tech/big-techs-ai-spending-plans-reach-725-billion* Trading Key. (2026, May 13). HD: Home Depot Inc stock moved down by 3.20% on May 13 — key drivers unveiled. https://www.tradingkey.com/news/market-movers/261890878-market-movers-hd-20260513* U.S. News & World Report. (2026, February 24). Home Depot’s contractor bet pays off in soft US housing market. https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2026-02-24/home-improvement-retailer-home-depot-edges-past-quarterly-sales-estimates* Ulta Beauty Investor Relations. (2026, May 15). Ulta Beauty and Target announce plans to conclude partnership in 2026 [Press release]. https://www.ulta.com/investor/news-events/press-releases/detail/209/ulta-beauty-and-target-announce-plans-to-conclude* Walmart Corporate. (2026, March 23). Walmart and VIZIO scale content to commerce at NewFronts. https://corporate.walmart.com/news/2026/03/23/walmart-and-vizio-scale-content-to-commerce-at-newfronts* Walmart Corporate. (2026, February 19). Walmart releases Q4 FY26 earnings [Press release]. https://corporate.walmart.com/news/2026/02/19/walmart-releases-q4-fy26-earnings* What The Chip Happened. (2026, May). The $600+ billion demand wall: Why Nvidia remains the most mispriced mega-cap in tech. https://news.whatthechippened.com/p/the-600-billion-demand-wall-why-nvidia* Yahoo Finance. (2026, May 9). Microsoft free cash flow margin compression signals AI spending pressure. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/news/* Yahoo Finance. (2026, May 13). EQT (EQT) releases financial and operational results for Q1 2026. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/eqt-eqt-releases-financial-operational-113332756.html* Yahoo Finance. (2026, May 13). EQT Corp Q1 2026 earnings call highlights: Record cash flow and strategic growth plans. https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/eqt-corp-eqt-q1-2026-070435529.html* Yahoo Finance. (2026, May 15). DEI boycott played a role in Target’s Q1 sales slump as foot traffic declined. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dei-boycott-played-a-role-in-targets-q1-sales-slump-as-foot-traffic-declined-183135827.htmlInternal dataInternal data is provided on a best efforts basis.Forward earnings dates (FMP)* HD — 2026-05-19 (9:00 AM ET). Consensus EPS $3.42, revenue $41.61B. Source: FMP /stable/earnings?symbol=HD.* LOW — 2026-05-20 BMO. Consensus EPS $2.96, revenue $22.98B. Source: FMP /stable/earnings?symbol=LOW.* TGT — 2026-05-20 BMO. Consensus EPS $1.41, revenue $24.66B. Source: FMP /stable/earnings?symbol=TGT.* NVDA — 2026-05-20 AMC. Consensus EPS $1.76, revenue $78.42B. Source: FMP /stable/earnings?symbol=NVDA.* WMT — 2026-05-21. Consensus EPS $0.65, revenue $174.72B. Source: FMP /stable/earnings?symbol=WMT.* DE — 2026-05-21. Consensus EPS $5.70, revenue $11.55B. Source: FMP /stable/earnings?symbol=DE.* CRM — 2026-05-27. Consensus EPS $3.12, revenue $11.05B. Source: FMP /stable/earnings?symbol=CRM.* COST — 2026-05-28. Consensus EPS $4.91, revenue $69.58B. Source: FMP /stable/earnings?symbol=COST.All dates pulled 2026-05-15 from the FMP earnings calendar; see earnings_slate.md. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This week on Telltales: Hunt, Jason, and Mike pressure-test Meta’s position as an AI cash machine, walk through the Iran-driven oil setup, and unpack the FDA shake-up and a second consecutive Harrow miss.The Cashflow MemoKey Takeaways* Meta is the most profitable AI application ever built: revenue doubled from ~$110B in 2021 to a $220B run rate today, with current growth still ~30% YoY on a $200B base — AI rebuilt the attribution layer Apple’s ATT broke in 2021.* Meta’s capex bet is uniquely uncomfortable: on the last call management told analysts they have no idea what ROIC will be on AI infrastructure spend because, unlike Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Oracle, Meta isn’t renting the servers — it’s defensive spend against what Zuckerberg called an existential paradigm shift.* Oil setup remains manageable despite the Iran standoff and Strait of Hormuz closure: near-month crude is in the $90s, full-year 2026 futures price in at ~$79, 2027 at ~$73, against a ~2M bbl/day inventory draw absorbable by ~1B bbls of US crude inventory plus China’s reserve.* Trump administration’s $1.5T defense ask for fiscal 2027 won’t fully land, but the equipment refresh is happening — bigger concern is US public debt >100% of GNP with no clear capital-markets trigger date, only inevitability.* Harrow/Vevye second consecutive miss: CVS formulary win pulled high-deductible Q1 patients into the $59 Access-for-All program, forcing rebate outflows of $200–$300 per patient back to the PBM — thesis intact but a 5-year payout, not 2–3 years.Show Notes[00:18] Iran Standoff & Crude Inventory Math Hunt frames the Strait of Hormuz closure and the inventory math: a 2M bbl/day draw is absorbable against ~1B bbls of US crude inventory plus China’s reserve.[04:00] Oil Futures Curve & Gasoline Politics Near-month crude in the $90s, 2026 futures price in at ~$79, 2027 at ~$73 — manageable prices, with a path to ~$3.50 gasoline rather than $4.50.[05:36] Defense Budget & US Deficit Trump’s $1.5T fiscal 2027 ask won’t fully land, but the equipment refresh is happening. The real concern is public debt >100% of GNP and an uncertain capital-markets trigger.[07:12] Meta Deep Dive: The Attention Machine Why Meta is unlike other Mag-7 stories — Facebook and Instagram as discovery-to-purchase advertising machines, not search-intent platforms.[13:04] Meta as the Most Profitable AI Application Ever Built ML in ad ranking since 2007, PyTorch’s origin story, and why Meta has been quietly compounding AI dollars longer than any of the LLM darlings.[16:56] Apple ATT, Revenue Doubling, and the CapEx Question The 2021–2022 flat-revenue year that forced Meta to rebuild attribution with AI — and the open question of ROIC on today’s infrastructure spend.[23:29] News: Amazon Supply Chain Services, OpenAI Ads, Nvidia, Tesla, TSMC Amazon stands up a UPS/FedEx competitor, OpenAI launches a self-service ad platform aimed at Google, Nvidia’s earnings cadence, and Musk’s Terra Fab ambitions.[25:49] FDA Shake-Up: Makary Out, Real-Time Reviews In Marty Makary resigns under pressure after the Replimune denial — but the real story is two new real-time review studies with Amgen and AstraZeneca that could compress drug-approval timelines.[30:26] Harrow Earnings: The PBM Rebate Trap on CVS Formulary Second consecutive miss. Winning CVS formulary placement pulled high-deductible patients into the $59 Access-for-All program, forcing rebate outflows that wiped out Q1 economics. Thesis intact, payout extended.Subscribe and get the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us — financials on ~80 companies plus the oil, natural gas, and US deficit exhibits referenced in every episode.Cashtags$META $AAPL $AMZN $GOOGL $MSFT $ORCL $NVDA $TSLA $TSM $CVS $LLY $REPL $AMGN $AZN This post and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

The Cashflow MemoAI Is Finally Paying. The Question This Week Was How The Suppliers Got Paid.Micron’s 2026 memory is sold out, with customers writing prepayment checks for chips that don’t exist. AMD’s Q1 data center revenue was up 57% — but the strength was EPYC CPUs, not the OpenAI GPU deal, which contributed zero dollars to the quarter. Palantir printed an 85% revenue quarter at a Rule of 40 score of 145. And Disney’s first full quarter under D’Amaro printed streaming income up 88%.The Telltales Weekend Update. Ava Cabot and analyst Marcus Graham walk through what happened this week — and what’s coming next — across the 86 companies in the Cash Flow Memo. About 13 minutes. No filler.Download the memo at telltales.us. Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode 2620.Chapter markers* Time | Segment* 0:00 | Opening disclaimer* 0:15 | Cold open — throughline + E2619 callback + Mother’s Day* 1:30 | Theme — How the suppliers got paid (MU vs AMD compare/contrast)* 5:30 | Deep dive — Palantir* 9:30 | Rapid-fire — CRCL / DIS / UBER / ABNB + forward-week earnings* 13:00 | Close — Consensus Watch + Wednesday tease* 13:30 | Closing disclaimerFull transcriptOpening disclaimerAva: The following conversation is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you.Cold openAva: You’re listening to the Telltales Weekend Update. I’m Ava Cabot.Marcus: And I’m Marcus Graham — the cashflow desk.Ava: Quick note: the show is produced entirely with AI tools, and both voices you’re hearing are AI-generated. Send feedback through the Substack.Ava: And before we get into it, happy Mother’s Day to all the moms in the audience. Thank you for spending part of today with us.Ava: Here’s the throughline for this week. AI is finally paying — but the unit economics of how suppliers capture that demand vary wildly. On Wednesday’s show, Hunt, Jason, and Mike walked the hyperscaler stack from the bottom up — Hunt made the case that Amazon’s networking edge may matter more than Nvidia’s chips[^ep-e2619]. That was the architecture conversation. Today is the unit-economics conversation, supplier side. Micron printed the cleanest version. Customers writing prepayment checks for memory that doesn’t exist yet[^news-mu-hbm-booked-20260507] — pricing power so strong it’s hitting cash this quarter. AMD printed the messier version. Data center revenue up 57%[^news-amd-datacenter-20260505], but the strength was in EPYC server CPUs and existing Instinct GPU shipments[^news-amd-10q-q1-20260505], not the OpenAI deal everyone is anchoring on. That deal — signed last October[^news-amd-openai-20251006], OpenAI got warrants for up to 10% of AMD[^news-amd-openai-warrant-20251006] — contributed zero dollars to Q1[^news-amd-10q-q1-20260505]. Shipments don’t start until the second half of this year[^news-amd-openai-20251006]. The CPU side of AMD’s print connects back to Intel two weeks ago — same demand signal, different name on the box[^news-intc-q1-20260423][^news-intc-cpu-ai-20260423]. That’s the show.Theme — How the suppliers got paidAva: Two supplier prints this week, both validating AI demand, very different evidence about pricing power. Micron is charging customers in advance. AMD’s strength came from CPUs, not GPUs — same story Intel told the market two weeks ago[^news-intc-q1-20260423].Ava: Page 8 — Micron. Micron’s 2026 high-bandwidth memory is fully booked, with customers signing multi-year prepayment agreements for supply that doesn’t exist yet[^news-mu-hbm-booked-20260507]. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said Micron can only meet between 50 and 67% of demand from key customers[^news-mu-demand-constrained-20260507]. The four largest spenders on AI — Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple — all publicly cited memory cost and availability constraints. Stock hit an all-time high of $683 on May 7[^news-mu-ath-20260507]. Mizuho took the price target from $545 to $740[^news-mu-mizuho-20260509]. And Micron raised fiscal 2026 capex to $25B from $20B, a 25% step up[^news-mu-capex-raise-20260507].Ava: And AMD. After the close on May 5 — Q1 revenue $10.3B, data center revenue up 57% to $5.8B[^news-amd-q1-20260505][^news-amd-datacenter-20260505], Q2 guidance $11.2B[^news-amd-q2-guidance-20260505], stock up 16% the next day[^news-amd-stock-20260505]. Important read on that data center number. The growth came from EPYC server CPUs and the existing Instinct GPU ramp[^news-amd-10q-q1-20260505], not from the OpenAI deal. Per the 10-Q, the OpenAI warrants haven’t vested[^news-amd-10q-q1-20260505]. Shipments don’t start until the second half of this year[^news-amd-openai-20251006]. The deal contributed zero dollars to Q1[^news-amd-10q-q1-20260505]. Which connects directly to Intel two weeks ago. Intel printed Q1 revenue up 7% YoY to $13.6B[^news-intc-q1-20260423], with management telling the Street that the CPU-to-GPU ratio in AI deployments is shifting from 1:8 toward 1:4, and trending toward parity as multi-agent workloads scale[^news-intc-cpu-ai-20260423]. That’s the read across both prints. AI demand isn’t just GPUs. Hyperscalers are buying head-node CPUs alongside their accelerator clusters. CPU demand is having a renaissance after two flat years, and AMD just confirmed what Intel told the market. Marcus, the cashflow take.Marcus: The Q1 print is good news about the business AMD already has — EPYC share, current Instinct shipments — not about the business AMD bought with equity last October. The OpenAI warrant is a future customer-acquisition cost that doesn’t hit the P&L until the second half of this year[^news-amd-openai-20251006]. When it does, it shows up in two places. As data center revenue ramping into 2027. And as up to 160 million shares of dilution if MI450 hits its deployment milestones[^news-amd-openai-warrant-20251006]. The memo had AMD at 167× trailing free cash flow on $4.4B of TTM FCF[^memo-amd-evfcf-20260328][^memo-amd-fcf-20260328] — that multiple is being defended by the forward book, not by what just printed. Q1 didn’t move the actual question. The actual question is whether the OpenAI relationship — paid for in October at a penny a share — produces enough revenue to justify the dilution. We don’t get a read on that until late 2026 at the earliest.Marcus: The compare to Micron sharpens the point. Both names trade at multiples that need a story. Micron at 209× free cash flow has the leverage of a structural shortage[^memo-mu-evfcf-20260226][^memo-mu-fcf-20260226] — they’re charging in advance because they can, and the cash is hitting the bank this quarter. AMD at 167× paid customers in equity last October to lock in revenue that hasn’t started yet, while the current quarter prints fine on CPU demand and legacy GPU shipments. Both stocks are pricing forward stories. Only one of those stories has cash hitting the bank right now.Ava: Two suppliers, two prints. Same end-market. Pick your fighter.Deep dive — PalantirAva: Page 17 — Palantir. The cleanest AI is actually paying print of the cycle so far. After the close on May 4. Q1 revenue $1.63B, up 85% year-over-year — the fastest growth rate since the company went public in 2020[^news-pltr-q1-20260504]. Beat consensus by $90M. U.S. revenue alone hit $1.28B, up 104% — the first time U.S. growth has crossed 100%[^news-pltr-us-growth-20260504]. U.S. commercial revenue up 133%. Net income quadrupled to $870M, EPS $0.34[^news-pltr-netincome-20260504]. Adjusted free cash flow $925M on a 57% margin[^news-pltr-fcf-20260504]. Rule of 40 score: 145[^news-pltr-rule40-20260504]. Quick aside for readers who don’t follow software — Rule of 40 is the standard efficiency benchmark in SaaS. You add a company’s revenue growth and its profit margin. 40 is the bar for a healthy software company. Palantir is at 145. Roughly four times the bar. Back to the print — full-year guidance raised from $7.2B to $7.65B[^news-pltr-fy-guidance-20260504]. Marcus, the cashflow take.Marcus: Palantir is the proof point that the rest of enterprise software has been promising and not delivering. The memo has Palantir at 160× trailing free cash flow on $1.9B of TTM FCF[^memo-pltr-evfcf-20260331][^memo-pltr-fcf-20260331]. We re-anchor when the Q1 10-Q files. The number that actually matters from this print is the U.S. commercial line — that’s a customer set that didn’t exist 18 months ago paying real money for AI deployment, not pilots.Ava: 160× free cash flow. Rule of 40 at 145.Marcus: 160× is not defensible on a static comp. It’s defensible only if you believe the U.S. commercial growth rate doesn’t normalize for another four to six quarters. So weight the outcomes. Bull case at 30% — government and commercial both compound from here. Base case at 50% — commercial decelerates and the multiple compresses by half on a stock that still works. Bear case at 20% — the multiple does what 160× multiples always do.Ava: So the question is whether the customer set that just appeared keeps appearing.Marcus: That’s the entire question. Argus upgraded to Buy on May 7, Citi took the target to $225[^news-pltr-argus-20260507][^news-pltr-citi-20260507]. The Street is pricing the bull. Watch the Q2 print for whether U.S. commercial holds north of 100% year-over-year, or steps down to 70. 70 is still a great number. It is also a different multiple.Ava: 145 Rule of 40. That number alone is the whole story.Rapid-fireAva: Five to close out — one pre-print catalyst, three prints already on the tape, and the forward week.Ava: First — Circle. Reports Monday morning[^earn-crcl]. Wall Street consensus $717M revenue, $0.18 EPS[^news-crcl-q1-20260510]. The setup matters more than the number. The CLARITY Act compromise cleared Congress, banning passive deposit-style yield on stablecoins while explicitly preserving rewards tied to user activity. The stock jumped 20% on May 4[^news-crcl-clarity-20260504]. USDC circulation hit $78B[^news-crcl-usdc-20260506]. Visa is rolling out USDC settlement to U.S. banks including Cross River and Lead, and signed on as lead design partner for Circle’s Arc blockchain[^news-crcl-visa-20260510]. Mastercard expanded USDC settlement across Eastern Europe, Middle East, and Africa[^news-crcl-mastercard-20260510]. Wall Street’s consensus on Circle: a crypto play with regulatory tail risk. After this week, that’s not what Circle is anymore. Stablecoins just became payments infrastructure. Watch the reserve income line on Monday.Ava: Second — Disney. D’Amaro’s first full quarter as CEO and the integration thesis printed. Reported Tuesday, May 6[^news-dis-earnings-20260506]. Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue $25.2B, up 7% year-over-year, beat consensus. Streaming income up 88% to $582M[^news-dis-streaming-20260506]. Parks operating income at a fiscal Q2 record of $2.6B despite domestic attendance down 1% — per-capita spending up 5%[^news-dis-parks-20260506]. ESPN direct-to-consumer launched at $29.99 a month for Unlimited[^news-dis-espn-20260506]. And Disney raised the fiscal 2026 buyback from $7B to at least $8B[^news-dis-buyback-20260506]. Memo had Disney at 21× trailing free cash flow on $10.5B of TTM FCF, a 5.6% yield[^memo-dis-evfcf-20260328][^memo-dis-fcf-20260328]. Streaming is a profit line now, not a loss line.Ava: Third — Uber. Reported May 6[^news-uber-q1-20260506]. Q1 EPS $0.72, beating consensus of $0.70. Revenue $13.2B, slight miss. The numbers that mattered weren’t in the headline — Uber One membership crossed 50 million, and members now drive 50% of gross bookings across Mobility and Delivery[^news-uber-one-20260506]. Adjusted EBITDA grew 33% year-over-year to $2.5B[^news-uber-ebitda-20260506]. CEO Khosrowshahi said Uber will reach Waymo services in 15 cities by year-end, with autonomous mobility trips growing more than tenfold year-over-year[^news-uber-av-20260506]. Buyback authorization raised by $20B, last-12-months free cash flow at an all-time high of $8.5B[^news-uber-buyback-20260506]. The Cash Flow Memo had Uber at 11× trailing free cash flow on $13B of TTM FCF — the cheapest AI-distribution play in the universe[^memo-uber-evfcf-20260331][^memo-uber-fcf-20260331]. The autonomous threat became the autonomous distribution contract.Ava: Fourth — Airbnb. Reported May 7[^news-abnb-earnings-20260507]. Q1 revenue $2.68B, beat. EPS $0.26, missed by $0.03. Gross booking value up 19% year-over-year to $29B. Adjusted EBITDA up 24%. The numbers from the call that matter for the throughline — nearly 60% of Airbnb engineering code in Q1 was coauthored with AI, roughly double the industry average. Their AI customer support agent now resolves 40% of issues without human escalation, up from 33% earlier in the year[^news-abnb-chesky-ai-20260507]. CEO Brian Chesky said AI-enabled engineers can now do work that previously required teams of 20. Memo had Airbnb at 23× trailing free cash flow on $3.2B of TTM FCF[^memo-abnb-evfcf-20260331][^memo-abnb-fcf-20260331]. Summer Release lands May 20[^news-abnb-summer-release-20260520]. Chesky is running the most visible AI-native operations reorg in consumer tech.Ava: And fifth — the forward earnings sweep next week. Venture Global reports Tuesday[^earn-vg]. Home Depot Tuesday[^earn-hd]. Walmart, Target, Lowe’s, Deere, and — the one to watch — Nvidia, all in 72 hours Tuesday through Thursday[^earn-wmt][^earn-tgt][^earn-low][^earn-de][^earn-nvda]. We’ll cover Nvidia properly next Saturday — the weekend before the print, with the options-implied move and the H200 China question front and center.CloseAva: That’s the show. Wall Street’s consensus this week: AMD is the cheap Nvidia alternative, Micron is priced for perfection, and Palantir is hype. Zero out of three. AMD paid OpenAI 10% of itself last October to lock in a customer that contributed zero dollars to Q1 — the cash flow from that bet doesn’t start for another two quarters. The Q1 strength was CPU demand, same story Intel told the market two weeks ago. Micron getting prepayments for chips that don’t exist is not perfection — it’s a structural shortage. And Palantir’s Rule of 40 at 145 is not hype — it’s the cleanest cash conversion of any software name in the cycle.Ava: Hunt, Jason, and Mike are back Wednesday on episode 2620. Download the memo at telltales.us. Happy Mother’s Day. We’ll see you next Saturday.Closing disclaimerAva: The views expressed on this podcast are the host alone and do not constitute an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the host nor any of their employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of this information. The host and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future, and may or may not hold positions in the securities mentioned.Sources* AMD. (2025, October 6). AMD and OpenAI announce strategic partnership to deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD GPUs [Press release]. Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1260/amd-and-openai-announce-strategic-partnership-to-deploy-6-gigawatts-of-amd-gpus* AMD. (2026, May 5). AMD reports first quarter 2026 financial results [Press release]. Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1284/amd-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results2a. AMD. (2026, May 5). Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended March 28, 2026 [SEC filing]. Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. https://ir.amd.com/sec-filings2b. Intel Corporation. (2026, April 23). Intel reports first-quarter 2026 financial results [Press release]. Intel Investor Relations. https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1767/intel-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results* Airbnb. (2026, May 7). Airbnb announces first quarter 2026 results [Press release]. PR Newswire. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/airbnb-announces-first-quarter-2026-results-302759162.html* CFO Dive. (2026, May 6). Uber CFO: Stock undervalued; $20B buyback authorization announced. CFO Dive. https://www.cfodive.com/news/uber-cfo-stock-undervalued-buyback-program-driverlessvehicles-ridesharing/736583/* CNBC. (2026, May 4). Circle jumps nearly 20% on CLARITY Act compromise that preserves stablecoin rewards. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/04/circle-jumps-16percent-on-clarity-act-compromise-that-preserves-stablecoin-rewards.html* CNBC. (2026, May 4). Palantir (PLTR) Q1 earnings report 2026. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/04/palantir-pltr-q1-earnings-report-2026.html* CNBC. (2026, May 6). Disney (DIS) Q2 2026 earnings. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/06/disney-dis-earnings-q2-2026.html* CNBC. (2026, May 6). Uber (UBER) Q1 2026 earnings — Uber One reaches 50M members; Khosrowshahi targets Waymo in 15 cities. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/06/uber-uber-2026-q1-earnings.html* CoinDesk. (2026, May 10). Visa brings USDC settlement to U.S. banks after $3.5 billion stablecoin pilot. CoinDesk. https://www.coindesk.com/business/2025/12/16/visa-brings-circle-s-usdc-settlement-to-u-s-banks-following-usd3-5-billion-stablecoin-pilot* DigiTimes. (2026, May 7). Micron hikes FY26 capex above $25B from $20B. DigiTimes. https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20251218VL201/micron-2026-fab-capex-expansion.html* Deadline. (2026, May 6). Josh D’Amaro says Disney+ will be the centerpiece of an immersive, interactive digital future. Deadline. https://deadline.com/2026/05/josh-damaro-disney-plus-centerpiece-digital-future-1236882741/* Fortune. (2026, May 7). Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky on AI-coauthored code (60%) and AI support resolving 40% of issues. Fortune. https://fortune.com/2026/05/07/airbnb-ceo-brian-chesky-two-people-wont-survive-ai-era-pure-people-managers-workers-resist-change/* Fox Business. (2026, May 6). Disney unveils new direct-to-consumer ESPN streaming service with $29.99 price tag. Fox Business. https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/disney-unveils-new-direct-consumer-espn-streaming-service-price-tag* Investing.com. (2026, May 4). Palantir Q1 2026 slides: U.S. revenue tops 100% growth, Rule of 40 hits 145. Investing.com. https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/palantir-q1-2026-slides-us-revenue-tops-100-growth-rule-of-40-hits-145-93CH-4657648* Investing.com. (2026, May 6). Uber Q1 2026 slides: profitability surges 44% amid revenue headwinds. Investing.com. https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/uber-q1-2026-slides-profitability-surges-44-amid-revenue-headwinds-93CH-4663758* Mastercard. (2026, May 10). Mastercard expands partnership with Circle. Mastercard. https://www.mastercard.com/global/en/news-and-trends/stories/2026/circle_kash_razzaghi.html* Mizuho Securities. (2026, May 9). Micron Technology price target raise from $545 to $740 [Analyst note]. Cited in multiple outlets.* MooMoo. (2026, May 6). Circle (CRCL) Q1 2026 earnings preview: Can the stablecoin giant sustain its growth momentum. MooMoo. https://www.moomoo.com/community/feed/circle-crcl-q1-2026-earnings-preview-can-the-stablecoin-giant-sustain-its-growth-momentum-116526937407494* Rental Scale-Up. (2026, May 10). Airbnb May 20 2026 Summer Release: What to expect, and why this update matters more than ever. Rental Scale-Up by PriceLabs. https://www.rentalscaleup.com/airbnb-may-20-2026-summer-release-what-to-expect-and-why-this-update-matters-more-than-ever/* Seeking Alpha. (2026, May 7). HBM sold out for 2026: Wall Street is still underpricing. Seeking Alpha. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4881338-micron-technology-hbm-sold-out-for-2026-wall-street-is-still-underpricing* Seeking Alpha. (2026, May 10). Circle Internet Group earnings dates & report. Seeking Alpha. https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CRCL/earnings* The Ad-Hoc News / Bloomberg. (2026, May 7). The memory giant that can’t make chips fast enough. Ad-Hoc News. https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/ueberblick/the-memory-giant-that-can-t-make-chips-fast-enough/69278905* The Main Street Mouse. (2026, May 6). Disney beats expectations as streaming and U.S. parks drive strong Q2 results. The Main Street Mouse. https://www.themainstreetmouse.com/2026/05/06/disney-beats-expectations-as-streaming-and-u-s-parks-drive-strong-q2-results/* The Motley Fool. (2026, May 4). Palantir stock investors just got incredible news. The Motley Fool. https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/05/04/palantir-stock-investors-just-got-incredible-news/* The Motley Fool. (2026, May 9). Why is AMD stock soaring? The Motley Fool. https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/05/09/why-is-amd-stock-soaring/* TheWrap. (2026, May 6). Disney revenue climbs 7% to $25.2 billion in Q2, boosted by streaming, theme parks. TheWrap. https://www.thewrap.com/industry-news/business/disney-earnings-q2-2026/* Variety. (2026, May 6). Disney Q2 2026 revenue rises 7% in earnings beat, streaming income up 88% to $582 million. Variety. https://variety.com/2026/tv/news/disney-q2-2026-earnings-josh-damaro-streaming-income-1236738974/* Uber Investor Relations. (2026, May 6). Uber announces results for first quarter 2026 [Press release]. https://investor.uber.com/news-events/news/press-release-details/2026/Uber-Announces-Results-for-First-Quarter-2026/default.aspx* ARTVOICE. (2026, May 8). MU stock price just hit an all-time high and here’s the reason why. ARTVOICE. https://artvoice.com/2026/05/08/mu-stock-price-just-hit-an-all-time-high-and-heres-the-reason-why/* Argus Research. (2026, May 7). Palantir Technologies upgrade to Buy with $190 price target [Analyst note].* Citi Research. (2026, May 7). Palantir Technologies price target raised to $225 from $210 [Analyst note].Internal dataInternal data is provided on a best efforts basis.Forward earnings calendar (FMP)Forward earnings dates pulled from FMP /stable/earnings, source 2026-05-10. See 04. Publishing/shows/weekend-update/W2619/dryrun/earnings_slate.md for the full week.* CRCL — 2026-05-11* VG — 2026-05-12* HD — 2026-05-19* LOW — 2026-05-20* NVDA — 2026-05-20* TGT — 2026-05-20* DE — 2026-05-21* WMT — 2026-05-21 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This week we walk through the post-Hormuz oil setup, the Intel stake math, and a layer-by-layer review of the hyperscalers — Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Oracle, and Meta — as they navigate the AI buildout.The Cashflow MemoKey Takeaways* Iran ceasefire path holds — Project Freedom (defended Hormuz corridor) is suspended in favor of a one-page 14-point memo brokered via Pakistan; Hunt models ’26 oil at ~$80 and ’27 at ~$72-73, with the $25B war cost absorbable inside the existing $900B defense budget.* Intel stake now worth ~$56B against a $9B cost basis — Mike argues the administration should sell to fund war spending; UAE exiting OPEC+ adds another structural shift but limited ’27 price impact.* Hyperscaler stack defined as five layers (infrastructure → platform → model → harness → application); Amazon leads on platform breadth and faces fewer internal-vs-customer capacity conflicts than Microsoft or Google because AWS scale dwarfs internal compute needs.* Networking has become the strategic differentiator — post-Mellanox, Nvidia prioritizes customers buying bundled compute and networking, which de-prioritized Amazon and forced Trainium; Anthropic running on Trainium signals inference workloads splitting from Nvidia-dominated training.* Meta got beat up unfairly on CapEx ROIC questions — the same AI infrastructure that rebuilt ad attribution post-Apple ATT is what analysts criticize; Zuckerberg pushed back that ROIC isn’t the right lens for application-layer businesses where you build user experience first and monetize later.Show Notes[00:00] Cold Open & Disclaimer Mike opens the show. Standard disclaimer.[00:26] Iran, Hormuz, and Project Freedom Hunt’s six minutes on Iran. Project Freedom (defended-corridor through the strait) is suspended for a one-page memo brokered via Pakistan. Modeling ’26 oil at ~$80 and ’27 at ~$72-73.[06:56] The $56 Billion Intel Stake The Trump administration’s 10% Intel position bought for $9B is now worth ~$56B. Mike’s view: sell it. Plus JP Morgan’s bearish 50s oil call and UAE leaving OPEC+.[09:27] Hyperscaling: Who’s In and How They Got Here Setting up the hyperscaler review. Hunt on Amazon’s accidental cloud head start and the AWS vs. Azure share question.[11:45] The Five Layers of the Stack Mike defines the stack: infrastructure → platform → model → harness → application. Where CoreWeave fits, where Bedrock fits, why platform-as-a-service is the moat.[16:06] Amazon, Trainium, and the Nvidia Networking Story Why Amazon was slow on Nvidia, what changed after Mellanox, and how Anthropic running on Trainium signals the training-vs-inference split.[18:26] Google and Microsoft’s Capacity Conflict Both face the same problem: allocate compute to customers or to internal AI products. Google opening up TPUs. Microsoft’s Copilot and GitHub agent-driven usage explosion.[21:52] Meta’s Already-Built AI Infrastructure Meta rebuilt ad attribution after Apple’s ATT changes by pouring CapEx into AI infra — the spending analysts now punish them for is what powers the ad-business growth.[23:10] Earnings Calls and the ROIC Debate Every analyst question this earnings season was about return on invested capital. Zuckerberg’s pushback: that’s not how application-layer businesses are built.[24:45] The Five-Year CapEx Amortization Question Hunt presses on whether $700M-per-build economics actually pencil with five-year chip obsolescence. Jason on AI displacing labor, Mike on Rentahuman.ai.[27:28] Healthcare Cost Disruption Off-patent generics, GP-as-AI-agent, Amazon One Medical, and the Obamacare 15% profit cap that incentivizes insurers to grow costs.[32:09] Closing & Next Week Next episode: Meta and its digital advertising competitors, plus more on flatlining federal healthcare spending.Subscribe and download this week’s Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us.Cashtags$AMZN $MSFT $GOOG $GOOGL $META $NVDA $ORCL $CRWV $INTC $AAPL $JPM This post and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

The Cashflow MemoApple, Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon all printed in 48 hours. Same capex cycle, three different cloud margin stories — and Apple and Meta both quietly repositioned the balance sheet.The Telltales Weekend Update. Ava Cabot and analyst Marcus Graham walk through what happened this week — and what’s coming next — across the 86 companies in the Cash Flow Memo. About 13 minutes. No filler.Download the memo at telltales.us. Mike, Jason, and Hunt are back Wednesday on episode 2619.Chapter markers* Time | Segment* 0:00 | Opening disclaimer* 0:15 | Cold open* 0:45 | Theme — capital cycle resets (AAPL, META)* 4:45 | Deep dive — hyperscaler cloud face-off (AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL)* 8:45 | Rapid-fire (OXY, DIS, PLTR, CVS, MCD)* 11:45 | Close* 12:30 | Closing disclaimerFull transcriptOpening disclaimerAva: The following conversation is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you.Cold openAva: You’re listening to the Telltales Weekend Update. I’m Ava Cabot.Marcus: And I’m Marcus Graham, the analyst on the show. Every beat you hear from me is anchored in a number from the Cash Flow Memo. If the multiple doesn’t make sense against the cash the company actually generates, I’ll say so.Ava: Quick note: the show is produced entirely with AI tools, and both voices you’re hearing are AI-generated. We’re still in the pilot window, so feedback is welcome through the Substack at telltales.us.Ava: This was the heaviest hyperscaler print week of the year. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon all reported within a 36-hour window. Apple printed Thursday after the close. Meta printed Wednesday. Roughly $9 trillion of market cap reset its capex framing in the same 48 hours. On Wednesday’s episode 2618, Mike, Jason, and Hunt walked through the big-retail valuation convergence and Hunt’s revised oil thesis, and they teed up a dedicated hyperscaler episode for this week.[^ep-e2618] We did the work for them. The theme first.Theme — capital cycle resetsAva: Two prints this week did something the headline numbers don’t capture. Apple and Meta sit on opposite ends of the universe — different businesses, different buyers, different growth profiles. Both used this print to reposition the balance sheet for an AI capex cycle bigger than what’s been committed to publicly. That’s the theme.Ava: Apple, page 1 of the memo, after the close Thursday. Q2 revenue ~$111B, up 17% YoY, beating consensus.[^news-aapl-q2-print-20260430] Gross margin 49.3% — an all-time record.[^news-aapl-margin-record-20260430] iPhone up 22%. Greater China up 28% on top of December’s 38%.[^news-aapl-china-beat-20260430] Apple authorized an additional $100B in buybacks and raised the dividend 4%.[^news-aapl-buyback-dividend-20260501] Incoming CEO John Ternus made his first public appearance on the call, taking the chair September 1.[^news-aapl-ternus-debut-20260430] But three structural changes hit at once. Apple guided June gross margin to 47.5–48.5% — the first explicit step-down in 8 quarters.[^news-aapl-guidance-strong-20260501] CFO Parekh said Apple is no longer providing net cash neutral as a formal target.[^news-aapl-cash-framework-20260430] And the buyback was halved during the transition window — 93M shares in Q1 to 42M in Q2.[^news-aapl-buyback-halved-20260430] Marcus, the cashflow read.Marcus: Going into this print, the memo had Apple at 37x trailing free cash flow at a 2.6% yield, on ~$106B of trailing free cash flow.[^memo-aapl-priorqtr-20260424] Buyback over that window, ~$92B.[^memo-aapl-buyback-priorqtr-20260424] Those are Q1 10-Q confirmed; we re-anchor when the Q2 10-Q files later this month. The operating print is the best in Apple’s history — that’s not the question. The capital structure read is what matters here. Net cash went from $54B to $62B despite $15B of returns this quarter. The most plausible read on retiring the net-cash-neutral framework is Apple is creating room to issue debt against an AI capex step-up without an offsetting drawdown obligation. Halving the buyback during the transition window gives Ternus operating room to redirect capital differently than Cook. The 37x multiple is being asked to hold at peak gross margin right before a confirmed step-down. The memory cost language has now escalated three calls running — minimal, then a bit more, now significantly higher in June with an increasing impact beyond June. Action: hold; do not add at this price.Ava: Meta, page 1. Q1 revenue ~$56B, up 33% YoY, beating consensus.[^news-meta-q1-earnings-20260429] Meta raised 2026 capex guidance to $125–145B, $10B higher at both ends of the range.[^news-meta-capex-raise-20260429] JPMorgan downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight; the stock fell about 9% after-hours.[^news-meta-jpmorgan-downgrade-20260430] Mark Zuckerberg announced 8,000 layoffs effective immediately, citing AI infrastructure costs.[^news-meta-layoffs-20260501] Marcus.Marcus: Meta is mid-AI-capex cycle. Capex was running ~$70B trailing twelve going into this print, and the company just guided this year up to $125–145B.[^memo-meta-capex-priorqtr-20260424] When you spend that much faster than you generate operating cash, free cash flow goes negative — that’s the cost of the build, not a flag. So the multiple isn’t the right frame on this name. What actually prices Meta right now is the revenue acceleration. Price-per-ad doubled growth rate Q-over-Q from +6% to +12% — single most important number on the print.[^news-meta-price-per-ad-20260429] The bigger number behind the capex raise is what Susan flagged separately on the call — Meta booked $107B of new contractual commitments in this quarter alone. A single-quarter increment larger than Meta’s entire 2026 capex range.[^news-meta-contractual-commitments-20260429] Off-balance-sheet commitment is now the figure to track. Same pattern as Apple — the headline is operating, the actionable is capital structure.Deep dive — hyperscaler cloud face-offAva: All three hyperscalers reported within 36 hours. All three guided capex up. All three said AI demand exceeds supply. The margin print is wildly different — and the divergence tells you where each cloud sits on the AI maturity curve.Ava: Amazon, page 1. AWS revenue ~$38B, up 28% YoY — the fastest AWS growth in 15 quarters.[^news-amzn-aws-q1-20260429] Total Q1 revenue beat at ~$182B against consensus of ~$177B.[^news-amzn-q1-earnings-20260429] AWS operating margin stepped from 35.0% in Q4 to 37.8% in Q1 — +280bp sequentially, on $14B of segment operating income.[^news-amzn-aws-margin-20260429] Custom silicon run rate $20B; Trainium-specific revenue commitments now $225B, the first ever disclosure.[^news-amzn-trainium-20260429] Andy Jassy said selling Trainium racks externally is a good chance over the next couple of years.[^news-amzn-trainium-20260429] Q2 revenue guide $194–199B, well above estimates.[^news-amzn-q2-guidance-20260429] Marcus.Marcus: AWS is the cleanest single-number story of the week. The +280bp sequential step-up in segment margin lands directly inside Andy Jassy’s several hundred basis points claim from the shareholder letter. Management did not attribute the lift explicitly to Trainium — leaving headroom on later calls. Going into the print, the memo had Amazon at ~63x trailing free cash flow at a ~1.5% yield, on ~$43B of trailing free cash flow. That’s Q4 10-K confirmed.[^memo-amzn-priorqtr-20260424] The Q1 print just absorbed even more operating cash into capex — Amazon’s free cash flow collapsed ~95% on a TTM basis.[^news-amzn-fcf-20260429] So the consolidated multiple is even less informative; we re-anchor when the Q1 10-Q files. The anchor is the segment margin, not the consolidated multiple. Action: the obvious sub-$200 entry window has closed; hold or add modestly into the Q2 print, where the test is whether 37.8% holds or compounds.Ava: Microsoft, page 1. Q3 revenue ~$83B, up 18% YoY. Azure growth +40% cc.[^news-msft-q3-earnings-20260429] Microsoft guided 2026 capital spending to $190B, well above Wall Street estimates.[^news-msft-capex-190b-20260429] Microsoft 365 Copilot crossed 20M paid enterprise users — up 250% YoY, with Accenture taking 740K seats in the largest-ever single deal.[^news-msft-copilot-20m-users-20260430] And the OpenAI partnership was restructured. The exclusive Azure arrangement ended; OpenAI can now deploy on competing clouds. Microsoft retains royalty-free IP through 2032 and a capped revenue share through 2030.[^news-msft-openai-nonexclusive-20260427][^news-msft-openai-revised-terms-20260427] Stock fell ~6% post-earnings.[^news-msft-stock-decline-earnings-20260430] Marcus.Marcus: Going into this print, the memo had Microsoft at ~97x trailing free cash flow at a 1% yield, on ~$32B of trailing-twelve free cash flow. That’s Q2 10-Q confirmed.[^memo-msft-priorqtr-20260424] Q3 pushes the multiple higher and the yield lower — peak multiple on peak narrative. We re-anchor when the Q3 10-Q files. The Copilot inflection at 20M seats with Outlook-level usage intensity is the single most important data point on the print. The buried quality concern — all-in commercial bookings −6% cc, +7% ex-OpenAI.[^news-msft-bookings-20260429] Mostly comp lap and OpenAI restructure timing, not core enterprise weakness, but the kind of number that would headline a different stock. The OpenAI restructure is the swap of exclusivity premium for predictability — Microsoft now collects a capped annuity through 2030 off a counterparty that just recapped. Lower upside, higher floor. Action: hold; do not add unless Maia and Cobalt margin compounds faster than guided.Ava: Alphabet, page 1. Q1 revenue ~$110B, up 22% YoY.[^news-googl-q1-earnings-20260429] Google Cloud revenue $20B, up 63% — the first time crossing the $20B threshold and the strongest cloud growth rate since the unit began breaking out revenue in 2020.[^news-googl-cloud-acceleration-20260429] Cloud backlog nearly doubled QoQ to $460B.[^news-googl-cloud-backlog-20260429] Sundar Pichai said cloud revenue would have been higher if Google had been able to meet the demand.[^news-googl-cloud-supply-20260429] Capex guidance raised to $180–190B, with FY27 flagged for further increases.[^news-googl-capex-raise-20260429] And for the first time, Alphabet disclosed it is selling TPU chips off-cloud to capital markets firms and frontier AI labs.[^news-googl-tpu-sales-20260429] Marcus.Marcus: Going into this print, the memo already had Alphabet’s multiple unusable as a clean anchor — ~365x trailing free cash flow at a ~0.25% yield, on $11B of trailing free cash flow against $91B of capex. Q4 10-K confirmed.[^memo-googl-priorqtr-20260424] The print this week makes the multiple even less informative. The lever is the cloud op margin print — ~33% in Q1 vs ~18% a year ago. Roughly +1,500bp of YoY cloud margin expansion, even with Wiz dragging the segment.[^news-googl-cloud-margin-20260429] The AI revenue is low margin thesis dies here. Mix shift to GenAI products with SaaS economics is what bear modelers said couldn’t happen at this stage of the cycle. GenAI-built product revenue +800% YoY against +400% in Q4 — the second derivative is going positive.[^news-googl-genai-revenue-20260429] Selling TPU off-cloud is a structural pivot. Alphabet is now willing to sell training compute to OpenAI-class competitors. Action: thesis got materially stronger. This is the underappreciated print of the three.Ava: One frame on the three. Same TAM. Same capex envelope going up. Three different margin stories. Marcus, the editorial line.Marcus: AWS resolved Mike’s pre-print test on Trainium — segment margin stepped up exactly where Jassy said it would. The bull case got the data point it was watching for. Microsoft thesis improved at the platform layer, but the bookings number is the buried quality concern. Alphabet is the most underappreciated of the three because the AI-margin bear thesis just died on a +1,500bp cloud margin expansion. Three completely different reads inside 36 hours of the same end-market.Rapid-fireAva: Five forward-week catalysts to close.Ava: Occidental Petroleum, OXY, page 9, reports Tuesday with the call Wednesday morning.[^earn-oxy] CEO succession announced this week — Vicki Hollub retires June 1 after a decade running the company; Richard Jackson takes the chair, an insider since 2003 with a background in Permian operations and cost efficiency.[^news-oxy-ceo-succession-20260501] OxyChem sale to Berkshire Hathaway closed January at ~$10B and funded ~$6B in principal debt reduction toward the $15B target.[^news-oxy-oxychem-sale-20260102] Stock up 37% YTD through April 25.[^news-oxy-analyst-targets-20260426] On the memo, OXY runs a slightly negative free cash flow yield on ~−$700M of TTM free cash flow.[^memo-oxy-fcfyield-20260502] The print needs to validate the WTI-above-$100 backdrop Hunt walked through on Wednesday’s show or expose hedge positioning into the run.Ava: Disney, DIS, page 4, reports before the open Tuesday.[^earn-dis] New CEO Josh D’Amaro made two strategic decisions this week. ESPN stays — no spin-off; ESPN gets deepened into the streaming ecosystem.[^news-dis-espn-20260428] And D’Amaro is exploring a paid membership tier internally called Disney Prime, modeled on Amazon Prime, combining parks, streaming, cruise, and merchandise into a single super-app.[^news-dis-superapp-20260501][^news-dis-prime-20260502] On the memo, Disney is page 4 at 19x free cash flow at ~6% yield — the cleanest media valuation in the universe.[^memo-dis-evfcf-20260502] The print question is whether super-app and ESPN integration give Disney a new monetization surface, or just organizational complexity.Ava: Palantir, PLTR, page 20, reports Monday after the close.[^earn-pltr] Options market is pricing ~10.5% move on the print.[^news-pltr-options-20260501] Wall Street expects revenue ~$1.5B, up 74% YoY, with consensus EPS $0.28 — about 115% earnings growth.[^news-pltr-q1-forecast-20260501] Palantir signed a $300M USDA contract for farmland management and is one of three finalists for a ~$32B FAA air traffic control modernization contract.[^news-pltr-usda-20260422][^news-pltr-faa-contract-20260425] On the memo, Palantir is at ~240x trailing free cash flow at well below 1% yield.[^memo-pltr-evfcf-20260502] The question every print: can the government contract pipeline grow fast enough to justify the multiple, or is every beat already priced in.Ava: CVS Health, CVS, page 19, reports before the open Wednesday.[^earn-cvs] CEO transition — David Joyner replaces Karen Lynch, effective this week.[^news-cvs-ceo-joyner-20260427] Aetna will exit the ACA individual exchange marketplace effective 2026, leaving roughly 1M members without coverage.[^news-cvs-aca-exit-20260501] Medicare Advantage rate increases provide an offset; CVS reiterated full-year guidance, and the stock closed up ~4% April 28.[^news-cvs-earnings-guidance-20260428] On the memo, CVS sits at 3x free cash flow at ~53% yield — by some distance the most extreme yield in the universe.[^memo-cvs-evfcf-20260502] The Lynch exit and ACA retreat are the execution flags against that multiple.Ava: McDonald’s, MCD, page 16, reports Thursday before the open.[^earn-mcd] The simultaneous catalyst is Tuesday’s nationwide rollout of six specialty drinks — boba refreshers, a Dirty Dr Pepper — with 14,000 new beverage specialist roles and dedicated drink-counter spaces.[^news-mcd-drinks-launch-20260428] McDonald’s is targeting the $100B global beverage category at higher margins than standard sodas.[^news-mcd-beverages-margins-20260428] On the memo, MCD trades at 38x free cash flow at ~3% yield.[^memo-mcd-evfcf-20260502] The cautionary tale is CosMc’s — McDonald’s closed eight pilot locations in spring 2025 after drinks proved too complex for standard restaurant operations.[^news-mcd-cosmcs-closure-20260428] The question on the print is whether the in-store rollout is that mistake at scale, or whether a simpler execution model changes the answer.CloseAva: That’s the show. The hyperscaler week resolved Mike, Jason, and Hunt’s pre-print test on AWS margin and broke the AI-margin bear thesis at Alphabet. Microsoft’s print is the one with the buried quality concern. Apple and Meta both used this week to reset capital structure for a capex cycle bigger than what’s been committed to publicly. Next week is a forward-print sweep — Diamondback, Palantir, and Vertex on Monday; Occidental and TransDigm on Tuesday; Disney and CVS Wednesday; McDonald’s and Targa Thursday. Mike, Jason, and Hunt are back Wednesday on episode 2619. Download the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us. I’m Ava Cabot. See you next Saturday.Closing disclaimerAva: The views expressed on this podcast are the host alone and do not constitute an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the host nor any of their employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of this information. The host and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future, and may or may not hold positions in the securities mentioned.Sources* AJMC. (2026, May 1). Aetna members with ACA plans will need new coverage in 2026; CVS to exit ACA marketplace. AJMC. https://www.ajmc.com/view/aetna-members-with-aca-plans-will-need-new-coverage-in-2026-cvs-to-exit-aca-marketplace* AP News. (2026, April 28). McDonald’s bets on boba refreshers and a dirty Dr Pepper to drive its next growth. AP News. https://apnews.com/article/mcdonalds-taco-bell-kfc-drinks-beverages-coffee-334a949beb01c8e9c270094fb64420ed* Bloomberg. (2026, April 29). Amazon’s free cash flow sinks 95% as AI capex soars. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-29/amazon-reports-biggest-cloud-sales-jump-since-2022-on-ai-demand* Business Insider. (2026, April 28). Disney has decided to hang onto ESPN. Business Insider. https://www.businessinsider.com/espn-disney-spin-sell-decision-josh-damaro-2026-4* Business Insider. (2026, April 29). Amazon Q1 2026 earnings report — AWS, AI, capex. Business Insider. https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-q1-earnings-amzn-stock-price-aws-ai-capex-2026-4* CNBC. (2026, April 22). Palantir inks $300 million deal with USDA to safeguard food supply. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/22/palantir-inks-300-million-deal-with-usda-to-safeguard-food-supply.html* CNBC. (2026, April 29). Alphabet (GOOGL) Q1 2026 earnings. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/alphabet-googl-q1-2026-earnings.html* CNBC. (2026, April 29). Amazon Q1 2026 earnings report. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/amazon-amzn-q1-earnings-report-2026.html* CNBC. (2026, April 29). Meta Q1 2026 earnings report. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/meta-q1-earnings-report-2026.html* CNBC. (2026, April 29). Microsoft Q3 FY2026 earnings report — capex $190B. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/microsoft-msft-q3-earnings-report-2026.html* CNBC. (2026, April 30). Apple (AAPL) Q2 2026 earnings report. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/30/apple-aapl-q2-2026-earnings-report.html* CNBC. (2026, May 1). Apple stock rallies on Q2 earnings and Q3 guidance. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/01/apple-stock-rallies-on-q2-earnings-and-q3-guidance.html* CNBC. (2026, May 1). Occidental names veteran Richard Jackson as CEO; Vicki Hollub to retire. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/01/occidental-names-veteran-richard-jackson-as-ceo-vicki-hollub-to-retire.html* CoinCentral. (2026, April 25). Palantir (PLTR) stock climbs on new government contracts and analyst confidence. CoinCentral. https://coincentral.com/palantir-pltr-stock-climbs-on-new-government-contracts-and-analyst-confidence/* eTeknix. (2026, April 30). Microsoft passes 20 million paid Copilot users and says usage is now similar to Outlook. eTeknix. https://eteknix.com/microsoft-passes-20-million-paid-copilot-users-and-says-usage-is-now-similar-to-outlook* Forbes. (2026, April 27). OpenAI and Microsoft end exclusive partnership and revenue sharing. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/aliciapark/2026/04/27/openai-and-microsoft-end-exclusive-partnership-and-revenue-sharing/* Inside the Magic. (2026, May 2). The Disney Prime revolution: CEO Josh D’Amaro’s bold plan to put the magic behind a new monthly fee. Inside the Magic. https://insidethemagic.net/2026/05/disney-ceo-josh-damaro-considering-creating-disney-super-app-that-combines-all-platforms-with-paid-subscription-rl1* Investing.com. (2026, April 30). Apple stock gains after remarkable margin guidance — Apple tops quarterly estimates, approves additional $100 billion buyback. Investing.com. https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/apple-tops-quarterly-estimates-approves-additional-100-billion-buyback-4651105* Laughing Place. (2026, May 1). One Disney, one app: Executives reportedly discussing single Super App in Disney+. Laughing Place. https://laughingplace.com/disney-business/disney-super-app* MarketBeat. (2026, April 30). Alphabet’s earnings didn’t just beat — they changed the story. MarketBeat. https://www.marketbeat.com/originals/alphabets-earnings-didnt-just-beatthey-changed-the-story/* Managed Healthcare Executive. (2026, April 27). Karen Lynch steps down as CEO of CVS Health. Managed Healthcare Executive. https://www.managedhealthcareexecutive.com/view/karen-lynch-steps-down-as-ceo-of-cvs-health* Primary Ignition. (2026, April 26). Oxy share price surges 37% — Why Wall Street suddenly cares again. Primary Ignition. https://primaryignition.com/2026/04/26/oxy-share-price-surges-37-why-wall-street-suddenly-cares-again/* Quiver Quantitative. (2026, April 28). CVS rises as investors focus on earnings outlook and Medicare Advantage tailwinds. Quiver Quantitative. https://www.quiverquant.com/news/CVS+rises+as+investors+focus+on+earnings+outlook+and+Medicare+Advantage+tailwinds* Reuters. (2026, April 27). Microsoft, OpenAI change terms of deal so startup can court Amazon and others. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/microsoft-end-exclusive-license-openais-technology-2026-04-27/* Reuters. (2026, April 29). Alphabet revenue tops expectations on record quarter for cloud unit. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/alphabets-cloud-unit-beats-quarterly-revenue-estimates-strong-ai-demand-2026-04-29/* Reuters. (2026, April 30). Apple shares rise as iPhone 17 and MacBook Neo drive forecast. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/apple-sales-beat-expectations-powered-by-mac-iphone-hits-supply-constraints-2026-04-30/* Stockmktnewz [@stockmktnewz]. (2026, April 30). JPMorgan downgrades Meta to Neutral, lowers PT from $825 to $725 [Post]. Threads. https://www.threads.com/@stockmktnewz/post/DXwdecOCXPG/jp-morgan-today-downgraded-meta-platforms-meta-to-neutral-down-from-overweight* TIKR. (2026, April). Occidental completes sale of OxyChem. TIKR. https://www.tikr.com/blog/occidental-petroleum-stock-has-pulled-back-10-from-its-2026-high* TipRanks. (2026, May 1). Palantir Q1 earnings on May 4. Options market braces for a 10.55% swing. TipRanks. https://www.tipranks.com/news/palantir-pltr-q1-earnings-on-may-4-options-market-braces-for-a-10-55-swing* TipRanks. (2026, May 1). Palantir (PLTR) Q1 earnings on May 4. Wall Street analysts eye 115% earnings jump. TipRanks. https://www.tipranks.com/news/palantir-pltr-will-report-q1-earnings-on-may-4-wall-street-analysts-eye-115-earnings-jump* Tom’s Hardware. (2026, May 1). Mark Zuckerberg says Meta is cutting 8,000 jobs to pay for AI infrastructure. Tom’s Hardware. https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/big-tech/mark-zuckerberg-says-meta-is-cutting-8000-jobs-to-pay-for-ai-infrastructure* 24/7 Wall St. (2026, April 30). Opinion: Microsoft probably should have rallied after those solid earnings. 24/7 Wall St. https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/04/30/opinion-microsoft-probably-should-have-rallied-after-those-solid-earnings/* 9to5Mac. (2026, April 30). John Ternus joins Apple’s Q2 2026 earnings call, touts incredible roadmap ahead. 9to5Mac. https://9to5mac.com/2026/04/30/john-ternus-joins-apples-q2-2026-earnings-call-touts-incredible-roadmap-ahead/* Yahoo Finance. (2026, April 29). Microsoft Q3 2026 earnings beat on cloud and AI growth. Yahoo Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/microsoft-q3-2026-earnings-beat-205308206.html* Yahoo Finance. (2026, April 30). Meta stock sinks after Q1 earnings as company raises 2026 AI spending forecast to $125 billion–$145 billion. Yahoo Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/article/meta-stock-sinks-after-q1-earnings-as-company-raises-2026-ai-spending-forecast-to-125-billion-145-billion-160136308.htmlInternal dataInternal data is provided on a best efforts basis.Forward earnings (FMP)Source: FMP /stable/earnings?symbol=X, pulled 2026-05-02. See [[Weekend Update Dryruns/W2618/earnings_slate]].* OXY — 2026-05-05, conference call 2026-05-06. Consensus EPS $0.62, revenue $5.42B.* DIS — 2026-05-06 BMO. Consensus EPS $1.49, revenue $24.84B.* PLTR — 2026-05-04 AMC. Consensus EPS $0.29, revenue $1.54B.* CVS — 2026-05-06 BMO. Consensus EPS $2.21, revenue $94.97B.* MCD — 2026-05-07 BMO. Consensus EPS $2.75, revenue $6.47B. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Mike, Hunt, and Jason work through a revised oil thesis, the converging big-retail battle between Amazon, Walmart, and Costco, a hyperscaler preview, and the most-favored-nations finish line in pharma.The Cashflow MemoKey Takeaways* Hunt revised his oil thesis: the Strait of Hormuz impasse with Iran now looks structural after the US rejected Iran’s offer of a 5-year enrichment pause, pushing near-month oil from a ~$90 anchor toward a $110–$120 range with downstream pressure on natural gas as Permian associated gas keeps Waha hub pricing in negative territory.* Big retail is converging on the same customer: Walmart’s PE ran from low-20s to mid-40s, Costco trades at 47x with a $440B market cap and no debt, and Amazon’s 12-month PE has fallen below Walmart’s for the first time despite running zero-margin retail monetized through advertising and a logistics network now larger than UPS.* The hosts singled out Costco as the most challenged of the three on valuation alone — 47x for a retailer with an unclear growth runway leaves no margin of safety, while Amazon retail looks structurally underpriced if AWS is roughly two-thirds of the $2.8T EV (implying ~$1.2T for everything else, vs. Walmart’s $1T enterprise value).* Defense tech is the next disruption beat: $30,000 drones have effectively kept US destroyers offshore in the Gulf, F-35-style cost-plus contracting is broken, and Palantir-style product-first defense companies (Palantir was added this week to the Netflix page in the memo) are the model — Hunt is hunting for a drone-company addition next.* Healthcare update: the White House finalized Most Favored Nations contracts with all 17 top pharma companies (Regeneron last), Lilly is on an acquisition spree, and Teva bought a biotech with no approved drugs in market — Jason stays constructive on generics manufacturers as the structural winners of the looming patent-cliff wave.Show Notes[00:00:18] Disclaimer Standard informational disclaimer.[00:00:27] Exhibit C: Oil and the Hormuz Impasse Hunt walks through a meaningful change in his oil supply/demand view — the US-Iran embargo now looks structural after Iran’s enrichment offer was rejected. Near-month oil targets shift toward $110–$120.[00:05:38] Exhibit B: Gas and the Permian Problem Stronger oil pulls more associated gas out of the Permian, pushing Waha hub pricing into negative territory and supporting a bearish gas outlook into 2027.[00:09:00] Exhibit A: Federal Cashflow and Defense Spending Healthcare cost flattening, Doge aftereffects, and why the real defense fight is about efficiency, not topline.[00:11:58] Defense Tech Disruption Jason and Mike on Palantir’s product-first model, the F-35 lesson, and why the prime-contractor lobby is the main obstacle to better procurement.[00:14:14] New Memo Additions: Palantir and Micron Hunt adds Palantir to the Netflix page and Micron to the telecom page in this weekend’s 4/27 draft.[00:15:35] Big Retail: Amazon vs Walmart vs Costco Walmart and Costco trade at mid-40s PE; Amazon’s PE has slipped below Walmart’s for the first time despite hidden value in retail and logistics.[00:23:04] Why Costco Looks Most Challenged At 47x with no obvious growth runway, Costco has the thinnest margin of safety of the three.[00:25:43] Hyperscaler Preview AWS is roughly 50% larger than Azure, implying AWS is ~two-thirds of Amazon’s EV and leaving the retail + logistics piece around $1.2T — vs. Walmart’s $1T.[00:28:33] OpenAI, SoftBank, Oracle WSJ flags OpenAI missing 2025 budget targets, with knock-on effects to SoftBank, Oracle, and AMD — Jason notes the spending plan hasn’t actually changed.[00:29:33] Pharma: Most Favored Nations Complete White House finalized MFN contracts with all 17 top pharma companies, Regeneron last. FDA is exploring real-time trial-data review.[00:31:03] M&A: Lilly Spree, Teva Strategy Shift Lilly keeps acquiring; Teva buys a biotech with no approved drugs — a possible drift away from generics at the worst time, given the patent-cliff tailwind ahead.[00:32:30] Coming Attractions Hyperscaler deep dive, Anthropic, a drone-company memo addition, and Circle on the Mastercard page.Get the Cashflow Memo at telltales.us and subscribe for new episodes every Wednesday.Cashtags$AMZN $WMT $COST $PLTR $MU $MSFT $GOOG $ORCL $AAPL $NVDA $LLY $REGN $TEVA $SPOT $TMUS $VZ $T $UPS $MA $AMDThis post and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

The Cashflow MemoQ1 prints divide — Intel’s best day since 1987, Charter’s worstTesla, ServiceNow, Apple, Intel, Charter, UnitedHealth, Kinder Morgan all printed. Five megacaps and Regeneron up next week.The Telltales Weekend Update. Ava Cabot and analyst Marcus Graham walk through what happened this week — and what’s coming next — across the 86 companies in the Cash Flow Memo. About 13 minutes. No filler.Download the memo at telltales.us. Mike, Jason, and Hunt are back Wednesday on episode 2618.Chapter markers* Time | Segment* 0:00 | Opening disclaimer* 0:15 | Cold open* 0:45 | Theme — Q1 prints divide (TSLA, NOW, AAPL)* 4:45 | Deep dive — INTC + CHTR* 8:45 | Rapid-fire (UNH, KMI, AMZN, MSFT)* 11:45 | Close* 12:30 | Closing disclaimerFull transcriptOpening disclaimerAva: The following conversation is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you.Cold openAva: You’re listening to the Telltales Weekend Update. I’m Ava Cabot.Marcus: And I’m Marcus Graham, the analyst on the show. Every beat you hear from me is anchored in a number from the Cash Flow Memo. If the multiple doesn’t make sense against the cash the company actually generates, I’ll say so.Ava: Quick note: the show is produced entirely with AI tools, and both voices you’re hearing are AI-generated. We’re still in the pilot window, so feedback is welcome through the Substack at telltales.us.Ava: This was the heaviest single earnings week of the cycle for the Cash Flow Memo universe. Tesla, ServiceNow, Intel, Charter, UnitedHealth, and Kinder Morgan all reported. Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Regeneron all report next week. On Wednesday’s episode 2617, Mike, Jason, and Hunt opened on Tim Cook stepping down at Apple and pressed the question of whether a hardware-led AI bet was Apple’s edge or its Intel-style blind spot.[^ep-e2617] By Friday afternoon, the cautionary tale was out-printing the cautionary subject. Intel had its best single session since 1987. We get there. The theme first.Theme — Q1 prints divideAva: This was the first week the market told you what kind of Q1 print it was going to reward. The answer: very few of them. Three names on page 1 and page 2 of the memo printed this week. Two beat. One beat and got punished. All three are stories the market spent the week re-pricing.Ava: Tesla, page 1 of the memo, after the close Tuesday. Revenue $22.39B, a slight beat against consensus.[^news-tsla-q1-print-20260422] Q1 deliveries 358,023 units, missing consensus by about 7,600.[^news-tsla-q1-deliveries-20260422] Auto gross margin excluding credits 19.2%, the highest of any quarter in 2025.[^news-tsla-q1-margin-20260422] On the call, Musk pushed unsupervised consumer Full Self-Driving to Q4 of this year at the earliest[^news-tsla-fsd-delay-20260422] and announced full-year capex would rise to $25B from prior guidance of $20B.[^news-tsla-capex-20260422] Marcus, the cashflow read.Marcus: Tesla generated $1.4B of free cash flow in Q1, sequentially.[^news-tsla-capex-20260422] On the memo, the trailing-twelve-months free cash flow yield is still negative — -0.3%.[^memo-tsla-fcfyield-20260424] So the print resolves a little of the cash question and re-opens it at the same time. $25B of capex against an Optimus factory build and a Cybercab line that’s already started production[^news-tsla-optimus-20260422][^news-tsla-cybercab-production-20260423] is what $1.4B of quarterly cash buys you. And note the working-capital signal: Tesla maxed out a $5.8B Chinese bank facility this quarter while sitting on $44.7B of US cash on the balance sheet.[^news-tsla-china-debt-20260423] That’s a market-specific liquidity problem inside a balance sheet that does not need help in aggregate.Ava: ServiceNow, page 2 of the memo, after the close Tuesday. Subscription revenue $3.67B, up 22% YoY, beating guidance.[^news-now-q1-earnings-20260422] AI revenue guidance raised to $1.5B for 2026 from $1.0B. Customers spending more than $1M in Now Assist annual contract value grew 130% YoY.[^news-now-ai-traction-20260422] Stock dropped 18%. Middle East deal slippage, a 75 bps margin headwind from the Armis acquisition, and a guide reset that pushed normalized expansion out to 2027.[^news-now-earnings-selloff-20260422] Marcus, what does the memo say.Marcus: ServiceNow trades at 213x trailing free cash flow on the memo.[^memo-now-evfcf-20260424] At that multiple, a beat plus a guide raise on AI bookings is what’s expected. It’s not what gets you paid. What gets you paid at 213x is acceleration. The market saw deal slippage, margin compression, and a reset on the timing of the AI revenue conversion, and concluded the gap between bookings and revenue recognition is bigger than the multiple was pricing. Trailing-twelve free cash flow grew 55% YoY.[^memo-now-fcf-20260424] That’s still a beat. It’s just not a 213x beat.Ava: Apple, also page 1. Earnings April 30, consensus $1.92 on $109.35B in revenue.[^earn-aapl] But the news this week was the succession. Tim Cook steps down September 1. John Ternus, head of hardware engineering, takes the chair.[^news-aapl-cook-ternus-20260421] iPhone shipments in China up 20% YoY in Q1, strongest growth among major vendors against an overall market that was down 4%.[^news-aapl-china-iphone-20260417] India’s Competition Commission has set a final hearing for May 21 on a $38B antitrust case Apple is contesting.[^news-aapl-india-fine-20260420] Marcus, into the print, what does the memo carry.Marcus: Apple is on page 1 at 37x trailing free cash flow with a free cash flow yield of 2.6%.[^memo-aapl-evfcf-20260424] Trailing twelve months, Apple generated $105.6B of free cash flow, up about 18% from the prior trailing twelve.[^memo-aapl-fcf-20260424] Buyback was $91.8B over that same window.[^memo-aapl-buyback-20260424] That’s what Cook is handing Ternus. Whatever the AI strategy looks like under the new chair, the cash engine doesn’t need to be repaired. It needs to be redirected.Deep dive — Intel and CharterAva: Two earnings prints sat at opposite ends of the week. Both are deep dives because each one moved its stock more than 20% — one up, one down — and each one reset the conversation around the company.Ava: Intel, page 3 of the memo. Q1 revenue $13.6B against consensus of $12.6B, a $943M beat.[^news-intc-q1-beat-20260423] Non-GAAP earnings per share $0.29 against a $0.01 estimate.[^news-intc-eps-beat-20260424] Data Center and AI revenue up 22% YoY to $5.1B, and CEO Lip-Bu Tan called the demand for server CPUs huge on the call.[^news-intc-dcai-22pct-20260424] Q2 guide $13.8B–$14.8B, above consensus. EPS guide $0.20.[^news-intc-q2-guidance-20260423] The number behind the number — Intel announced Tuesday that Tesla had been signed as the first major customer for the 14A process node, for TeraFab AI chip production. Tan said on the call there was no better partner.[^news-intc-tesla-14a-20260422] On Friday, the stock closed up 24% at an all-time high above $82, the best single session since 1987.[^news-intc-stock-24pct-20260424] Marcus, the cashflow read.Marcus: This is where the memo asks a different question than the tape. Intel’s trailing-twelve free cash flow is -$16.2B and the free cash flow yield is -4.8%.[^memo-intc-fcf-20260424][^memo-intc-fcfyield-20260424] The memo can’t carry an EV/FCF multiple on Intel because the denominator is negative. The Q1 print does not change that. What the print changes is the slope. Revenue beat by $943M on a base where management has been guiding flat. The Q2 guide steps revenue up another 2-3% sequentially. 18A is hitting yield milestones, and 14A just landed Tesla.[^news-intc-18a-14a-20260424] If you believe the slope, the question is when free cash flow inflects positive. If you don’t, the multiple still doesn’t exist.Ava: One more piece of context. The US government’s 9.9% stake in Intel, acquired through CHIPS Act conversion for $8.9B, is now worth approximately $36B at Friday’s close.[^news-intc-govt-stake-20260424] Marcus, that math.Marcus: That’s a 4x return for Treasury inside roughly a year, which is the cleanest mark to date on the CHIPS Act capital structure. It doesn’t change Intel’s free cash flow. It does change the political price of letting the company run an aggressive foundry capex plan. Washington is now long the foundry build, marked to market.Ava: Charter Communications, page 5 of the memo, before the open Thursday. Earnings per share $9.17 against consensus of $10.01, an $0.84 miss.[^news-chtr-eps-miss-20260424] Stock fell 24%. The cleanest single-day decline in our universe this week. Inside the print: Spectrum Internet customers declined by 120,000 subscribers in Q1, against improvement in mobile and video.[^news-chtr-internet-loss-20260424] Capex guidance is the second beat. 2026 capex peaks at $11.4B before tracking down to under $8B by 2028.[^news-chtr-capex-guidance-20260424] And the Cox Communications acquisition, $34.5B and $800M in identified synergies, has cleared the FCC and DOJ but is still waiting on California CPUC approval.[^news-chtr-cox-status-20260424][^news-chtr-cox-synergies-20260424] Marcus, the memo number.Marcus: Charter trades at 69.7x free cash flow on the memo.[^memo-chtr-evfcf-20260424] Trailing twelve months Charter generated $1.8B of free cash flow.[^memo-chtr-fcf-20260424] The free cash flow yield looks attractive at 6%.[^memo-chtr-fcfyield-20260424] But debt to free cash flow is 53x.[^memo-chtr-debtfcf-20260424] That’s the number the multiple is pricing. At 53x debt to free cash flow, you do not have permission to lose broadband subscribers in your peak capex year while the merger you’re counting on for synergies is still sitting at one state regulator. The selloff is a re-pricing of the Cox close from a near-certainty into a timing risk.Ava: One forward question. Capex steps down by more than $3B between the 2026 peak and the 2028 run-rate. If the broadband line stops bleeding, the free cash flow profile changes meaningfully. Marcus, the read.Marcus: $3B of capex coming out is roughly equal to all of Charter’s current trailing free cash flow. So if the broadband line stabilizes and the Cox synergies actually print, you can re-rate this name in 2027. That’s the bull case. The bear case is the same one we just watched for 24%. Peak capex, broadband bleed, and a deal in regulatory limbo, all stacked.Rapid-fireAva: Four catalysts to close the show.Ava: UnitedHealth, UNH, page 19, Monday before open. Adjusted EPS $7.23 against consensus of $6.57, a $0.66 beat.[^news-unh-q1-earnings-20260421] Medical loss ratio improved to 83.9%, 90 bps better YoY and a clean beat against the 85.5% the Street was carrying.[^news-unh-mlr-20260421] Full-year guide raised to above $18.25 per share, and management called the medical cost trend acceleration peaked.[^news-unh-guidance-20260421] Separately, UnitedHealthcare announced it will eliminate most medical prior authorization requirements at 1,500 rural hospitals nationwide and accelerate payments to under 15 days.[^news-unh-rural-auth-20260420] On the memo, UNH trades at 3.7x free cash flow at a 26% free cash flow yield.[^memo-unh-evfcf-20260424][^memo-unh-fcfyield-20260424] The print is the inflection the cost-trend bears were asking for.Ava: Kinder Morgan, KMI, page 10, after the close Tuesday. EPS $0.48 against consensus $0.38, a 23% surprise.[^news-kmi-q1-eps-20260422] Adjusted EBITDA up 18% YoY to $2.54B.[^news-kmi-ebitda-growth-20260422] Moody’s upgraded Kinder Morgan to Baa1, putting all three rating agencies at BBB+ or equivalent.[^news-kmi-moodys-upgrade-20260422] Management projects US natural gas demand at 150 Bcf per day by 2031, a 27% step up from current levels.[^news-kmi-gas-demand-forecast-20260422] On the memo, 30x free cash flow at a 4.5% free cash flow yield.[^memo-kmi-evfcf-20260424][^memo-kmi-fcfyield-20260424] The midstream tape this week was the cleanest read on data center power demand in any sector, and KMI is pricing some of it.Ava: Amazon, AMZN, page 1, reports after the close Wednesday. Consensus $1.61 on $177.28B in revenue.[^earn-amzn] Two prints to flag going in. Amazon set its 2026 capex budget at $200B, the highest annual capex by any company in history.[^news-amzn-capex-200b-20260424] And Amazon committed an additional $25B to Anthropic, against Anthropic’s $100B AWS commitment over the next decade.[^news-amzn-anthropic-25b-20260420] Stock closed at an all-time high of $255.28 Wednesday.[^news-amzn-ath-255-20260423] On the memo, Amazon is 63x free cash flow at a 1.6% yield.[^memo-amzn-evfcf-20260424][^memo-amzn-fcfyield-20260424] What to watch on the call: AWS revenue growth, capex commentary, and any margin response to a $200B build.Ava: Microsoft, MSFT, page 1, also Wednesday after close. Consensus $4.07 on $81.37B.[^earn-msft] News this week — Microsoft offered first-ever voluntary retirement buyouts to approximately 8,750 US employees, 7% of the US workforce, at senior director level and below.[^news-msft-buyout-program-20260423] Stock fell 4% on the announcement.[^news-msft-stock-decline-20260423] UBS expects Azure growth around 38% on the call against a 9% consensus.[^news-msft-azure-forecast-20260424] On the memo, 97x free cash flow at a 1% yield.[^memo-msft-evfcf-20260424][^memo-msft-fcfyield-20260424] At that multiple, the buyout is the kind of cost discipline the market wanted before the AI capex print, not after.CloseAva: That’s the show. Roughly $5.5T of market cap reports in a 36-hour window next Wednesday and Thursday. Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Regeneron. The weekend after, we’ll have read all six. Mike, Jason, and Hunt are back Wednesday on episode 2618, picking up Amazon alongside Walmart per their carryover from this week.[^ep-e2617] Download the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us. I’m Ava Cabot. See you next Saturday.Closing disclaimerAva: The views expressed on this podcast are the host alone and do not constitute an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the host nor any of their employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of this information. The host and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future, and may or may not hold positions in the securities mentioned.Sources* Amazon Hits Record Highs Before Q1 Earnings: Is AMZN Stock Still a Buy? (2026, April 24). Barchart. https://www.barchart.com/story/news/1504346/amazon-hits-record-highs-before-q1-earnings-is-amzn-stock-still-a-buy* Amazon (AMZN) Stock Closes at All-Time High of $255.28, Anthropic Partnership and AWS Momentum Reshape Growth. (2026, April 23). Foreign Policy Journal. https://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2026/04/23/amazon-amzn-stock-closes-at-all-time-high-of-255-28anthropic-partnership-and-aws-momentum-reshape-growth/* Amazon to invest up to another $25 billion in Anthropic as part of AI infrastructure deal. (2026, April 20). CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/20/amazon-invest-up-to-25-billion-in-anthropic-part-of-ai-infrastructure.html* Apple’s iPhone shipments in China surge 20% in first quarter, data shows. (2026, April 17). CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/17/apples-iphone-shipments-in-china-surge-20percent-in-first-quarter-data-shows.html* Apple withholds data in India antitrust case, watchdog sets final hearing. (2026, April 20). Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/apple-withholds-data-india-antitrust-case-watchdog-sets-final-hearing-2026-04-20/* Charter Communications, Inc. Q1 2026 Earnings Call Summary. (2026, April 24). Yahoo Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/charter-communications-inc-q1-2026-164933509.html* Charter Communications Q1 2026 earnings: EPS of $9.17 misses consensus estimate of $10.01 by $0.84. (2026, April 24). Yahoo Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CHTR/* Charter loses 120,000 broadband subs in Q1 2026. (2026, April 24). Fierce Network. https://www.fierce-network.com/broadband/charter-loses-120000-broadband-subs-q1-2026* Charter outlines $11.4B 2026 CapEx while expecting run-rate spending below $8B after evolution and expansion conclude. (2026, April 24). Seeking Alpha. https://seekingalpha.com/news/4579478-charter-outlines-11_4b-2026-capex-while-expecting-run-rate-spending-below-8b-after-evolution-and-expansion-conclude-nasdaq-chtr* Cox Acquisition and $3.7 Billion in CapEx Cuts: The Bull Case for Charter Communications Stock. (2026, April 24). TIKR. https://www.tikr.com/blog/cox-acquisition-and-3-7-billion-in-capex-cuts-the-bull-case-for-charter-communications-stock* Elon Musk pushes unsupervised FSD for consumer Teslas — again. (2026, April 22). Electrek. https://electrek.co/2026/04/22/tesla-elon-musk-unsupervised-fsd-consumer-cars-q4-delay-again* Intel Corporation. (2026, April 23). Intel reports first-quarter 2026 financial results [Press release]. BusinessWire. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260423038467/en/Intel-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results* Intel Corp (INTC) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Surpassing Expectations with Strong AI. (2026, April 24). Yahoo Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/intel-corp-intc-q1-2026-071441642.html* Intel forecasts second-quarter revenue above estimates, shares jump 19%. (2026, April 23). Reuters. https://reuters.com/legal/transactional/intel-forecasts-second-quarter-revenue-above-estimates-2026-04-23* Intel lands Tesla as first major customer for 14A chip technology. (2026, April 22). Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-ceo-musk-says-company-plans-use-intels-14a-process-terafab-2026-04-22/* Intel says 18A yield improves as 14A advances to early customer engagement stage. (2026, April 24). DigiTimes. https://digitimes.com/news/a20260424VL204/intel-manufacturing-packaging-design-development.html* Intel’s revival is real: $13.6B in Q1. (2026, April 24). The Next Web. https://thenextweb.com/news/intel-q1-2026-earnings-ai-cpu* Intel’s stock has best day since 1987, soaring 24% as chipmaker shows signs of a turnaround. (2026, April 24). CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/24/intel-stock-soars-more-than-20percent-as-chipmaker-shows-signs-of-turnaround.html* Kinder Morgan (KMI) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript. (2026, April 22). The Motley Fool. https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/04/22/kinder-morgan-kmi-q1-2026-earnings-transcript/* Kinder Morgan Q1 2026 earnings surge with major gas projects. (2026, April 22). StockTitan. https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/EP/8-k-kinder-morgan-inc-reports-material-event-7ee87f94de39.html* Kinder Morgan Q1 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates. (2026, April 22). Yahoo Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/kinder-morgan-kmi-q1-earnings-214507014.html* Microsoft Falls 4% as $110 Billion AI Bet Forces Historic Employee Buyout: What Investors Need to Know. (2026, April 23). 24/7 Wall St. https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/04/23/microsoft-falls-4-as-110-billion-ai-bet-forces-historic-employee-buyout* Microsoft plans first-ever voluntary employee buyout for up to 7% of U.S. workforce. (2026, April 23). CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/23/microsoft-plans-first-voluntary-retirement-program-for-us-employees.html* Musk says spending plans will rise substantially as Tesla delivers cash surprise in Q1 earnings. (2026, April 22). Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/live-updates-tesla-report-2026-q1-earnings-after-markets-close-2026-04-22/* ServiceNow, Inc. (2026, April 22). ServiceNow reports first quarter 2026 financial results [Press release]. Business Wire. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260422839830/en/ServiceNow-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results* ServiceNow (NOW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript. (2026, April 22). Seeking Alpha. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4893100-servicenow-inc-now-q1-2026-earnings-call-transcript* ServiceNow Q1 2026 earnings: stock drops 17% on margin fears. (2026, April 23). Quartz. https://qz.com/servicenow-stock-earnings-middle-east-margin-pressure-042326* Tesla confirms Cybercab production has started despite delays in unsupervised driving. (2026, April 23). Electrek. https://electrek.co/2026/04/23/tesla-cybercab-production-starts-no-nhtsa-2500-vehicle-cap/* Tesla Q1 2026 Earnings Report. (2026, April 22). CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/22/tesla-tsla-q1-2026-earnings-report.html* Tesla reports Q1 2026 earnings: Still profitable. (2026, April 22). Ars Technica. https://arstechnica.com/cars/2026/04/tesla-reports-q1-2026-earnings-still-profitable/* Tesla (TSLA) maxes out $5.8 billion Chinese bank debt facility as China sales crash. (2026, April 23). Electrek. https://electrek.co/2026/04/23/tesla-tsla-maxes-out-5-8-billion-chinese-bank-debt-facility-10q/* Tesla (TSLA) releases Q1 2026 financial results: slight beat on earnings. (2026, April 22). Electrek. https://electrek.co/2026/04/22/tesla-tsla-q1-2026-financial-results/* The US government’s Intel stake is now worth $36 billion. Nobody in Washington planned it that way. (2026, April 24). The Next Web. https://thenextweb.com/news/us-government-intel-stake-36-billion-chips-act* UBS has strong cloud growth expectations ahead of hyperscaler earnings. (2026, April 24). Proactive Investors. https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1091181/ubs-has-strong-cloud-growth-expectations-ahead-of-hyperscaler-earnings-1091181.html* UnitedHealth Group. (2026, April 20). UnitedHealthcare eliminates most medical prior authorizations, accelerates payments for key rural care hospitals and providers nationwide [Press release]. https://www.unitedhealthgroup.com/newsroom/2026/2026-04-20-uhc-eliminates-most-medical-prior-authorizations-accelerates-payments-for-key-rural-care-hospitals-providers.html* UnitedHealth Group. (2026, April 21). UnitedHealth Group reports first quarter 2026 results [Press release]. https://www.unitedhealthgroup.com/newsroom/2026/2026-04-21-uhg-reports-first-quarter-2026-results.html* UnitedHealth Group (UNH) earnings Q1 2026. (2026, April 21). CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/21/unitedhealth-group-unh-earnings-q1-2026.html* UnitedHealth posts quarterly profit above Wall Street estimates, on track for turnaround. (2026, April 21). Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/unitedhealth-reports-2026-q1-profit-above-wall-street-estimates-vying-turnaround-2026-04-21/* Why the timing of Apple’s CEO change could mean a good earnings report is around the corner. (2026, April 21). CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/21/why-the-timing-of-apples-ceo-change-could-mean-a-good-earnings-report-is-around-the-corner.html* Transcript: Kinder Morgan Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call. (2026, April 22). Benzinga. https://www.benzinga.com/insights/news/26/04/51987212/transcript-kinder-morgan-q1-2026-earnings-conference-callInternal dataInternal data is provided on a best efforts basis. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESTim Cook is out, John Turner is in, and Apple’s AI strategy just became the most important question on page one. This week we pressure-test Apple’s hardware-first bet against the Intel cautionary tale, run Hunt’s contrarian oil math on a closed Strait of Hormuz, and hit a packed healthcare slate from CDC leadership to an mRNA cancer vaccine breakthrough.[00:00] Welcome and Episode PreviewMike opens on Apple’s CEO succession, framing the episode around whether naming a hardware leader in the AI era is genius or miscalculation.[01:23] Iran, Hormuz, and the Oil MarketHunt walks through why oil prices have stayed rational despite a closed Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Aramco making more in March on lower volumes, and why the world can operate at 95-96M bbl/day without serious damage. Includes a read on the $1.5T defense budget ask and why it will not pass.[12:05] Apple: John Turner Named CEO and the AI BetPost-Jobs product history points to Apple Silicon as the one truly new program, which is exactly what Turner led. The debate: can Apple monetize AI via on-device inference and an app-store style tax on agent transactions, or is outsourcing AI to Google an Intel-style blind spot?[20:35] Tesla, SpaceX, and Valuation DisciplineHunt argues Apple sits cheap relative to the capex-heavy hyperscalers; Tesla remains expensive; SpaceX’s data-centers-in-space pitch embeds an even bigger premium. Mike’s framework: hold the rare windows when great companies trade at fair multiples, do not chase concept valuations.[25:39] Healthcare: CDC, Peptides, mRNA Cancer, Lilly M&A, UNHErika Schwartz nominated to lead CDC (uncontroversial, stability pick); FDA reclassifies 12 peptides; UCLA mRNA pancreatic cancer phase-1 results (90% five-year survival in immune responders); Lilly buys Lon Therapeutics for in vivo CAR-T; UnitedHealthcare earnings plus a prior-auth elimination pilot.[33:38] Wrap and Next WeekNext up: Amazon alongside Walmart, then Google the following week.Get the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us and follow for weekly deep-dives on energy, technology, and healthcare.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

OPENING DISCLAIMER — 0:00AVA: The following conversation is intended for informational purposes only. You should always do your own work to determine if an investment is suitable for you.COLD OPEN — 0:15AVA: You’re listening to the Telltales Weekend Update. I’m Ava Cabot.MARCUS: And I’m Marcus Graham. Every Saturday we walk through what happened this week — and what’s coming next week — across the eighty-nine companies in the Cash Flow Memo. No filler. AVA: Quick note before we start. This is a pilot episode, so we want your feedback — what works, what doesn’t, what you want more of. The show is produced entirely with AI tools, and both voices you’re hearing are AI-generated. We welcome your feedback.AVA: On Wednesday, Mike, Jason, and Hunt spent most of episode twenty-six-sixteen on Hormuz, the deficit math, and the dominant-company debate — Lilly, Nvidia, Microsoft. Today we pick up downstream of that conversation, with the first big week of earnings season behind us. The AI build kept accelerating. A streaming founder stepped off his own board. And one of the cheapest stocks in the healthcare book heads into a print that could re-rate the whole managed-care complex.THEME — AI CHIP CYCLE — 0:45AVA: Let’s start with chips. Three names on page three of the memo set the tone this week — Taiwan Semi and ASML reported, and Intel reports Thursday. Same cycle, three very different places on the cashflow map.AVA: Taiwan Semi first. The company reported Thursday morning. Revenue thirty-five-point-nine billion dollars, up forty-one percent year over year. Net profit up fifty-eight percent. Both records. High-performance compute — which is AI plus networking — was sixty-one percent of revenue. Three-nanometer was twenty-five percent of wafer revenue. The Q2 guide came in at thirty-nine to forty-point-two billion — ten percent sequential growth, unusual in that seat this time of year. And capex got pushed to the high end of the fifty-two to fifty-six billion range.AVA: AI demand is not slowing, and the purest shovel in the build is telling you the order book is still accelerating. That matters most for Nvidia, which reports May twentieth.AVA: On the same page — ASML. Revenue eight-point-eight billion euro, order book called “very strong,” and management raised the full-year guide to thirty-six to forty billion euro. Stock traded down three percent on the open anyway. Marcus — what does the memo say about where ASML trades?MARCUS: ASML is expensive. The stock sits at seventy-four times free cash flow, and a free cash flow yield of just over one percent. Trailing twelve months, the company generated seven-point-five billion dollars of free cash flow — up seventeen percent. That’s clean growth, but it’s growing into a price that already prices in three more years of raised guides. The stock sold off on a raised guide because that multiple leaves no room for a stumble. If the memo number is your anchor, ASML is the chip stock you own for the monopoly, not for the cash yield.AVA: Then Intel, same page. Stock is up seventy-six percent year-to-date. The rally is built on two narratives — the twenty-five-billion-dollar Terafab joint venture with Elon Musk and Intel’s plant, and a foundry deal with AWS. Thursday’s print has to validate both. Marcus, how does this one read on the memo?MARCUS: Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months is negative sixteen-point-two billion dollars. This is not a cashflow stock; it is a restructuring narrative riding on whether the Terafab commitment converts into revenue inside of two quarters. The debt sits at forty-six billion. If Thursday’s guide doesn’t move that story forward, the seventy-six percent rally is doing the work of a beat that hasn’t happened yet. That said, I’d expect Intel to talk up booming CPU demand on the call. TSMC’s leading-edge capacity is sold out, and hyperscalers need a second source. At the leading nodes, Intel and Samsung are the only options.AVA: Three stocks, same cycle. One with no cash flow. One expensive on cash flow. And Taiwan Semi sits in between — still cheap on the multiple, still growing into it. The memo is how you tell them apart. DEEP DIVE — NETFLIX — 4:45AVA: To the deep dive. Netflix, page four. Reported Thursday after the close. EPS beat handily. Revenue up sixteen percent. The ad business reiterated a three-billion-dollar revenue target for 2026, with over four thousand advertisers on the platform.AVA: The stock dropped the most in six months anyway. Two reasons. The Q2 revenue guide came in below consensus. And the bigger one: Reed Hastings is not seeking reelection to the Netflix board. Twenty-eight years after he founded the company. Marcus — the memo has Netflix at a price most listeners wouldn’t call cheap. How does the print change that?MARCUS: It doesn’t change it. Netflix trades at thirty-nine times free cash flow. That’s priced for a growth-and-moat story. But trailing twelve months, free cash flow came in at ten-and-a-half billion dollars — down fourteen percent year over year. Growth going negative at thirty-nine times is how multiples compress.AVA: Management has been giving cash back hard. Gross buybacks ran almost seven billion dollars in the last four quarters — roughly four-point-eight billion net of stock issuance. Does that cadence hold from here?MARCUS: Four-point-eight billion of net buybacks on ten-and-a-half billion of free cash flow — about forty-five percent going back to shareholders. It’s a real capital-return program, and it’s been the stabilizer for the share count and the multiple. The question is whether you keep running that cadence into a year where free cash flow is shrinking, there’s a content arms race pulling capital in, and the founder is stepping off the board. The easy answer is no. You’d expect a more conservative allocator — which Greg Peters and Ted Sarandos are — to slow buybacks, redirect to content, and let the multiple do what it’s going to do.AVA: Hastings built the model where cash return was the discipline that kept Netflix from re-running the content-spend cycle. That discipline is now leaving the room during a content arms race. Also earlier this month, Netflix lost the bidding war for Warner Brothers content to a competing streamer. Streaming consolidation is real. A beat quarter with a founder exit and a soft guide, at thirty-nine times cash flow, is not what you want going into that fight.RAPID-FIRE — 8:45AVA: Forward week. Big slate. Four names to watch.AVA: UnitedHealth — UNH, page nineteen — reports Tuesday morning. Consensus wants six-point-six-three in EPS on one-hundred-nine-point-four billion in revenue. The setup: on April seventh, CMS raised the 2027 Medicare Advantage rate by two-point-four-eight percent — the first favorable rate rule in three years. The memo has UNH at three-point-seven times free cash flow, with a twenty-six percent free cash flow yield. That’s not a normal number. The market is pricing in a permanent impairment, and the print is the first chance to push back on that. If UNH beats, managed care re-rates.AVA: Tesla, page one — reports Wednesday. Q1 deliveries already missed — three-hundred-fifty-eight thousand against the company’s own three-hundred-sixty-five. JPMorgan flagged one-hundred-sixty-four thousand unsold units in inventory and laid out a sixty percent downside scenario. The memo shows Tesla with negative free cash flow of five-point-one billion over the trailing twelve months. The earnings number is not what this print is about. It’s the physical-AI language on the call — whether Musk gives a Robotaxi date, an Optimus milestone, or a new revenue line that the market can attach to. That’s the whole bar.AVA: McDonald’s, page sixteen. Not reporting this week — the Q1 print is May seventh. But Tuesday is the launch of the new McValue menu: under-three-dollar items, four-dollar breakfast, five-dollar lunch. McDonald’s is a cash flow bellwether for the low-income consumer. Memo has McDonald’s at thirty-eight times free cash flow, with debt to free cash flow at seven-point-seven — rich on cash flow and highly levered. Watch the first two weeks of menu-launch traffic data as a read on whether the low-end consumer is responding. Real signal comes on the May print.AVA: Uber, page twenty. Not an earnings name this week, but the big catalyst. Uber committed ten billion dollars this week to build a Robotaxi platform by 2028. Twenty-eight cities, Lucid and Nuro as hardware partners, employee test rides launching now. This is a break from the asset-light model that Uber’s valuation rests on. The memo has Uber at eleven-point-seven times free cash flow — cheap by tech standards. That multiple was earned by being capital-light. Ten billion of robotaxi capex puts part of it on the table. Watch the reaction on the May sixth print when management quantifies the spend. CLOSE — 11:45AVA: Hunt, Jason, and Mike will pick up Intel and Tesla on Wednesday’s main Telltales episode. If you want to follow along, the Cash Flow Memo is at telltales-dot-us. CLOSING DISCLAIMER — 12:30AVA: The views expressed on this podcast are the host alone and do not constitute an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the host nor any of their employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of this information. The host and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future, and may or may not hold positions in the securities mentioned.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This week on Telltales: we work through Hormuz's impact on oil and gas, the federal deficit's interest-rate squeeze, and then spend most of the hour on the dominant-company question — from Lilly and Nvidia to the real debate: is Microsoft a value trap or the operating system for the agent era?[00:00] Cold Open & Memo SetupMike opens the episode and points listeners to the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us — 20 pages covering energy, technology, and healthcare.[00:22] Iran, Hormuz, and the Energy MapHunt walks through how a six-week Straits closure reshapes production — US and Russia up, Saudi and Gulf Arabs down — and why Asian demand is quietly rolling over as diesel and jet fuel run short.[01:48] Oil Strip at $80, Waha Gas at Minus SixPermian associated-gas economics force producers to shut in oil rather than pay to move gas; the 2026 strip sits near $80 vs. a pre-campaign path to $50.[03:17] The Deficit Math That Actually MattersInterest expense has gone from $400B to $1T; tariffs are doing the heavy lifting on the revenue side at ~$500B run-rate. Markets won't accept FY26 > FY25.[04:42] Healthcare Cost Discipline — Real or Temporary?Medicare/Medicaid at $1.8T out of $7T in projected spending; Mike and Jason weigh whether Trump-era savings survive past this administration or snap back to the 8% trajectory.[07:15] Global Recession Risk from HormuzJason flags that the US blocking the Straits is a rare posture; Hermes and Ferrari weakness show the luxury tape softening first.[08:52] Eli Lilly: Dominant, But Not AppleGLP-1 carries the story; oncology and the broader pipeline are strong but every drug is only as good as its next patent. In winner-take-all pharma, blockbusters go to zero overnight.[10:29] Nvidia: Cheaper Than the S&P$200B+ revenue, >$100B free cash flow at a $4.5T cap — trades below S&P average on cash flow. The circular-revenue concern vs. the structural hyperscaler demand story.[15:09] Microsoft: Value or Value TrapStock at $370 vs. $550 high. Azure capacity curtailed to prioritize internal Copilot workloads. Satya-era subscription pivot and the OpenAI bet in historical context.[20:59] The Agent-Era Workflow ShiftMike and Jason describe how Claude Code has replaced chat interfaces for research — the file system is becoming the agent's workspace, which either helps or hurts the Office franchise.[23:41] Anthropic as the Natural Enterprise PartnerWhy Anthropic's enterprise focus fits Microsoft's Fortune 500 book better than OpenAI's consumer pivot.[25:22] Teams, Windows, and the Agent OS ThesisThe long case for Microsoft: own the communication layer and build the operating system agents actually run on.[28:38] Healthcare M&A and the Anthropic–Novartis SignalBiotech deals running at a record pace but still sub-$10B. Anthropic acqui-hires a 10-person biotech for $400M and adds the Novartis CEO to its board — AI's oldest pitch, finally getting institutional weight.[31:19] What's NextApple next week, Amazon and Walmart the week after — continuing the dominant-company framework and the question of who becomes the next Intel.Subscribe for next week's Apple episode, and download this week's memo at telltales.us.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

NVIDIA has evolved from a near-bankrupt GPU maker into the most dominant force in computing infrastructure. This week we unpack the "process power" framework that explains why, and ask whether Eli Lilly can replicate the same playbook in pharma.[00:00] Exhibit C: Oil Markets & Iran CeasefireIf the ceasefire holds, global production declines ~1M bbl/day. Demand stays flat at 103M. Average oil price for the rest of 2026 likely lands around $80. Higher oil prices paradoxically push nat gas lower via increased Permian associated gas production.[03:00] Exhibit B: Natural Gas OutlookHenry Hub at $2.86 prompt with $3.70 for 2027. Permian associated gas growing from 23 to 25 Bcf/d this year. Waha hub negative since January. Hoping gas holds $3.50-$4.00 range but oversupply risk persists.[04:23] Exhibit A: Fiscal & Defense SpendingWar supplemental request dropped from $200B to $80B. Defense budget proposal at $1.5T vs. current ~$900B run rate. Tariff revenue only ~$300B of $5.5T total federal revenue. Deficit must decline as a percentage of GNP — no other path.[08:27] Modern Warfare & Cost ReductionAutonomous drone-based interceptors replacing $10M missiles. Future defense procurement shifts from stockpile building to productive capacity and supply chain resilience. Iran's drone supply to Russia now disrupted.[10:00] NVIDIA Deep Dive: Process PowerHamilton Helmer's "Seven Powers" framework applied to NVIDIA. The real moat isn't CUDA's network effect — it's the 9-month iteration cadence established in 1997 when Jensen acquired a hardware emulator on the brink of bankruptcy. That process advantage compounded over a decade when nobody was watching.[14:00] NVIDIA's Vertical IntegrationFrom DGX-1 with Intel Xeon CPUs to today's full-stack offering: NVIDIA GPUs, NVIDIA CPUs, Mellanox networking (acquired 2019), and Groq LPUs. They sell complete data center aisles, capturing margin that Intel shared with Dell and Broadcom.[16:00] Intel's Cautionary TaleIntel voluntarily gave up Moore's Law process leadership because next-gen economics didn't satisfy shareholders. Now at $50B revenue with zero free cash flow. NVIDIA's position is stronger than Intel's ever was.[19:00] NVIDIA's Next FrontiersJetsons robotics chips (a decade in development), CUDA Q2Q quantum computing simulators. NVIDIA has taken the CUDA playbook wide across verticals — payoffs expected over the next few decades.[20:00] Taiwan Semiconductor DependencyTSMC sales up 30% monthly. Samsung's operating profit tripled. Elon bringing Intel into Tesla's Terra Fab project with Samsung. TSMC in monopoly position, deliberately under-building capacity.[21:45] AI Compute Demand: Anthropic & xAIAnthropic's token production showing exponential growth since AI agents launched. New model cost ~$10B to train — likely first fully trained on Blackwells. xAI planning models up to 10 trillion parameters.[23:22] Pharma Tariffs: 100% on Active IngredientsTargets China supply chain dependence. Extensive exemptions for orphan drugs, cancer therapies. 16 pharma companies have MFN agreements. 20% reduced rate for onshoring. Market reaction muted — this is a carrot, not a stick.[25:21] Eli Lilly: Dominant but ExpensiveRevenue up 40% YoY, FCF up 80%. Trading at ~50x FCF — more expensive than NVIDIA's 40x. Oral GLP-1 pill is a competitive advantage, but barriers to entry are lower than semiconductors. Process power in biotech is rare and harder to sustain.Subscribe to the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us and download this week's data package covering 80+ companies across energy, tech, and healthcare.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This week’s Telltales Podcast moves from geopolitics to technology to healthcare, connecting the latest market headlines back to cash flow, capital allocation, and competitive advantage. Mike, Jason, and Hunt discuss how energy risk, AI spending, and pharma dealmaking could shape investors’ thinking in the months ahead.[00:00] Opening and memo overviewMike opens the episode by framing the discussion around energy, technology, and healthcare, with references to the Cash Flow Memo and the weekly exhibits on government finances, natural gas, and oil.[00:20] Iran, oil risk, and Exhibit CHunt lays out his current view on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and why geopolitical risk may keep oil prices supported rather than sending them back toward much lower levels.[03:58] Exhibit A and the macro backdropThe conversation shifts briefly to the dollar, defense spending, and how fiscal developments could affect the broader economic picture.[05:03] Ceasefire timing and what to watch nextMike and Jason discuss the significance of the April 6 date, the uncertainty around negotiations, and how public reporting can differ sharply from realities on the ground.[06:32] Helium shortages and second-order inflation effectsThe hosts revisit helium after recent supply disruptions, highlighting how conflict can ripple far beyond oil into industrial gases and other inflation-sensitive inputs.[10:13] Middle East realignment and the long-term oil outlookJason and Hunt explore the bigger strategic picture, including regional cooperation, Saudi-Israel normalization, and what a more stable or less stable Middle East could mean for energy markets.[18:38] Artemis II, NASA contractors, and the economics of launchThe episode turns to space, where the hosts compare legacy aerospace contractors with SpaceX and debate what the future of launch economics and government contracts might look like.[21:12] Apple at 50: low capex, AI, and the future of SiriApple’s anniversary sparks a deeper debate on whether the company is prudently waiting on AI or risking a slow erosion of its moat by underinvesting in next-generation infrastructure and products.[24:00] The Intel comparison and platform riskMike argues that Apple could face an Intel-like problem if financial discipline overtakes product ambition, especially as outside AI providers gain leverage over the user experience.[28:00] OpenAI, suppliers, and bargaining powerThe hosts examine how AI could reshape platform economics, with Apple potentially becoming more dependent on third-party model providers and losing some of its traditional control.[30:15] Healthcare M&A and Eli Lilly’s latest pushJason closes with healthcare news, including fresh pharma dealmaking and Eli Lilly’s move into an oral weight-loss treatment, with implications for manufacturing, pricing, and competition.[31:24] Why Lilly looks so strongThe team discusses why Lilly continues to stand out, from product execution to strategic positioning, and tees up a deeper dive for a future episode.Thanks for listening to Telltales. Subscribe for weekly discussions on investing, cash flow, and company analysis, and check out the Cash Flow Memo for the financial exhibits and company updates that accompany each episode.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode of Telltales, Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence unpack the latest Cash Flow Memo across energy, technology, and healthcare. The conversation ranges from Iran-driven oil risk and natural gas pricing to AI infrastructure demand, semiconductor inputs, and the long-term investment case for cancer therapies.[00:00] Energy outlook after the Iran conflict Hunt opens with Exhibit C, explaining why he now sees oil supply tightening slightly versus prior expectations and why a return to something closer to normal in the straits could still leave a durable geopolitical risk premium in crude.[03:24] Why oil may stay higher for longer The team discusses why WTI may average closer to $80 in 2026-2028 rather than revisiting $60, with uncertainty around Iran, damaged infrastructure, and future military escalation all influencing pricing.[05:21] Exhibit A and the US fiscal picture Hunt argues the US remains relatively insulated on national accounts because it produces as much oil as it uses and more gas than it consumes, while still expecting the federal deficit trend to improve gradually.[08:24] Energy equities and capital discipline The discussion turns to oil and gas names in the memo, with the view that upstream oil producers are still discounting a more conservative price deck and are unlikely to overspend even if oil averages above current expectations.[10:09] Natural gas headwinds and LNG timing Hunt explains why higher oil production in the Permian can pressure gas prices through associated gas output, and why new LNG capacity should help eventually but may take longer to meaningfully change the price outlook.[12:11] Helium, fertilizers, and second-order inflation effects Mike and Jason highlight other commodities affected by the conflict, including helium and fertilizers, and explain why higher input costs could ripple into semiconductors, MRI operations, and broader inflation-sensitive markets.[13:15] Big Tech resilience and AI inference demand The hosts shift to technology, arguing that the largest platform companies remain well positioned as inference demand accelerates and hyperscalers continue building the compute capacity needed to support AI applications.[15:10] The falling cost curve of AI Mike frames technology as fundamentally deflationary and points to the sharp drop in token costs as evidence that innovation is still rapidly compressing compute economics despite rising capital intensity.[16:02] Google’s Turbo Quant and edge AI potential Jason explains Google’s new model architecture and why a major reduction in memory requirements could make local AI more practical, expand context windows, and move models closer to persistent memory-like functionality.[18:15] Apple, CPUs, and the agent economy The conversation explores why Mac Mini demand may be stronger than expected and how AI agents are increasing the need for traditional CPU compute alongside GPUs.[19:52] ARM, Intel, AMD, and the data center transition Mike and Jason discuss the shift away from x86, rising custom silicon adoption by hyperscalers, and why ARM-based architectures appear to be gaining ground in modern AI infrastructure.[20:48] NVIDIA’s expanding role in the stack The team explains how NVIDIA has evolved from a GPU story into a full data center systems story, with process speed and integrated infrastructure now central to its ability to defend margins.[23:02] AI meets healthcare in personalized cancer treatment Jason shares a story about a custom mRNA cancer vaccine for a dog, using it as an early proof point for how AI-assisted analysis could accelerate more personalized approaches to oncology.[24:23] Vertex and Harrow updates The healthcare segment covers encouraging Vertex phase 3 kidney disease data and a revealing reimbursement gap at Harrow, where a low direct-to-patient price contrasts sharply with insurance billing levels.[26:11] BioNTech after its founders The hosts debate BioNTech’s future, concluding that the company has enough late-stage assets and commercialization work ahead of it to remain viable even as the founders step back from day-to-day operating focus.[29:50] Why cancer vaccines remain one of the biggest themes Moderna and BioNTech are highlighted as current leaders in cancer vaccines, while Jason argues the future of cancer care will likely be shaped by a combination of new therapies, better monitoring, and individualized immune-based treatment.[31:49] The search for the next major investing themes The episode closes with a broader challenge: if AI and cancer therapies are already on the list of transformational trends, what are the other breakthroughs investors should be watching over the next three to four years?If you enjoy this style of investing discussion, subscribe to Telltales and download the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us. For more weekly analysis on energy, technology, healthcare, and cashflow-driven investing, stay tuned for the next episode.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, Hunt, Mike, and Jason break down the most consequential disruption to global energy markets in decades — the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — and what it means for oil prices, capital markets, and portfolio positioning. The conversation then pivots to AI agents, harness engineering, and the structural shift in how companies will operate.[00:00] **Strait of Hormuz Closure and Oil Market Impact**Hunt walks through the mechanics of losing ~20 million barrels of daily transit through Hormuz, the Israeli strike on Iran’s Pars gas facility, and Iran’s threatened retaliation against Saudi, UAE, and Qatari infrastructure. Near-month crude has moved from $60 pre-conflict to $100, with October $120 calls trading at $2.[03:16] **Scenarios for Oil Price Resolution**Could a ceasefire or Iranian-controlled transit regime bring prices back toward $80? Hunt outlines the pipeline alternatives — Red Sea, Fujairah, Turkey — and what a partial normalization by Q4 might look like. The consensus: $60 oil is gone for the foreseeable future.[06:16] **Why This Wasn’t a War of Choice**Jason and Hunt argue the Iran conflict was inevitable given the nuclear trajectory, with Iran’s stated objectives making a deal structurally impossible. The military campaign has been more decisive than expected, but drone suppression remains the key challenge.[09:50] **Exhibit B: Natural Gas Supply Problem**Permian associated gas continues to flood the market at 24 Bcf/day, with hub prices negative. New pipeline capacity (up to 5 Bcf/day) is coming but won’t arrive until late 2026. Higher oil activity will only worsen the gas oversupply.[11:07] **Exhibit A: US Government Fiscal Outlook**Healthcare spending is the main lever. Medicare and Medicaid may flatten with Trump administration changes. The US is improving directionally versus China, Japan, and Europe. The Fed holds rates steady.[14:00] **Mag Seven Resilience and AI CapEx Justification**Despite geopolitical turmoil, the Mag Seven remain remarkably steady at 40% of the index. Hunt, Mike, and Jason argue the AI infrastructure buildout is justified — each new chip generation is ~10x more efficient, breaking the typical industrial capacity cycle.[17:01] **Capital Returns and Why This Cycle Is Different**Mike draws on Edward Chancellor’s Capital Returns framework: unlike concrete plants, new GPU capacity is 90% more efficient than what it replaces. Token consumption is scaling with problem complexity, and Jensen Huang’s GTC keynote framed token budgets as the new employee benefit.[19:42] **AI Impact on Healthcare and Pharma R&D**Jason sees pharma companies testing more molecules rather than cutting headcount. The biggest efficiency gain: regulatory filing assembly for FDA submissions. Net effect is more drugs in the pipeline, which is positive for patients.[23:09] **Agents: From Open Claw to 2 Billion Users**The team debates agent adoption. Jason predicts every iPhone becomes an agent within a year — the orchestration runs on-device while inference runs in the cloud. Apple’s Siri delays leave the door open for Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google.[25:24] **Harness Engineering: The Next Software Layer**Mike defines the emerging discipline: writing traditional software that feeds the right context to LLMs at the right time. From Cursor to Claude Code to Open Claw, the pattern is vertical tools designed for specific jobs. Companies will reorganize around people + AI with tools and skills.[29:39] **Diagnostics, GLP-1s, and Bending the Healthcare Cost Curve**The path to lower healthcare costs runs through cheaper diagnostics (blood draws, genomics, AI symptom analysis) gating access to specialists, plus long-term benefits from GLP-1 adoption reducing total system burden.Download the full Cash Flow Memo with updated financials for ~80 companies at telltales.us. New episodes every Wednesday.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this episode of Telltales, Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence analyze global energy markets, the cash flow profiles of the world’s largest technology companies, and key developments in biotech and healthcare investing.[00:00] IntroductionMike introduces the episode and the Cash Flow Memo, which tracks financials across major companies and macro exhibits covering U.S. government finances, oil, and natural gas.[00:29] Oil Markets and Iran TensionsHunt explains how geopolitical tensions involving Iran and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are affecting oil prices and global supply dynamics.[03:00] Natural Gas, LNG, and Permian SupplyThe hosts discuss LNG disruptions from Qatar, rising global gas prices, and the persistent oversupply of U.S. natural gas driven by Permian Basin associated gas.[05:41] U.S. Government FinancesA look at the U.S. fiscal picture, including deficit trends, tariff revenue, and the continued role of the dollar as a global reserve currency.[07:04] Mega-Cap Tech FinancialsApple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Tesla are compared through the lens of revenue, EBITDA, capital spending, and free cash flow.[11:44] Amazon vs WalmartThe panel breaks down Amazon as two businesses—retail and cloud—and compares its economics with Walmart’s massive retail operation.[16:21] Nvidia’s Cash Flow MachineNvidia’s extraordinary margins and free cash flow generation are highlighted, along with discussion of the sustainability of AI-driven demand.[18:00] Moats in the AI EraThe hosts debate competitive advantages among major tech companies, including risks facing Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Nvidia as AI reshapes the industry.[20:33] Biotech Leadership ChangesDiscussion turns to BioNTech and Moderna, including founder departures and how early-stage research cultures influence biotech companies.[24:00] Pharma R&D and Capital AllocationThe hosts analyze R&D spending at companies like Pfizer and Vertex, focusing on how capital allocation affects long-term drug pipelines.[25:53] Harrow’s OutlookThe team reviews Harrow’s recent results and guidance, explaining why the long-term thesis remains intact despite short-term market reactions.[27:38] AI PredictionsEach host offers predictions about near-term developments in artificial intelligence, including the possibility of new model breakthroughs and Microsoft’s next Copilot evolution.[31:50] Closing RemarksThe episode concludes with final thoughts and a preview of next week’s discussion.If you enjoy deep dives into company cash flows and long-term investing, subscribe to Telltales and download the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, the team moves from energy geopolitics to mega-cap tech cash flows and healthcare catalysts—through the lens of what actually endures: free cash flow, incentives, and execution.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo setupMike frames the episode’s focus across energy, technology, and healthcare—and points listeners to the memo and exhibits.[00:29] Exhibit C: Oil supply, Iran risk, and what changes (or doesn’t)Hunt walks through how recent Middle East tensions can shift the crude supply outlook, while noting limited physical damage so far.[02:49] Exhibit B: Natural gas, LNG dynamics, and the forward curveThe conversation pivots to natural gas fundamentals and how supply/demand expectations translate into pricing and planning.[05:33] US fiscal picture: deficits, the dollar, and gold signalsThe group discusses US Treasury math, what’s improving (and what isn’t), and how markets interpret the trajectory via gold and rates.[09:27] Index concentration and the “Magnificent Seven” stability debateHunt challenges the idea that concentration equals fragility, arguing the biggest names are proving steadier than expected.[11:49] Tesla: robotaxis, humanoid robots, and valuation as a long-dated optionThey debate whether autonomy and robotics justify Tesla’s premium—and how production choices signal a strategic pivot.[14:28] Enterprise software in an AI world: why Snowflake still mattersSnowflake’s role is framed as “memory” and infrastructure for AI systems, not just another software line item competing with new tools.[18:30] Nvidia vs the field: scale, cash flow, and the next bottleneckThe team breaks down Nvidia’s dominance versus challengers and explores where constraints may emerge—especially around data center buildout and permitting.[22:25] Harrow: guidance optics, management credibility, and Vivi/Vevye tailwindsA sharp selloff meets a fundamentals discussion: conservative guidance, product momentum, and a meaningful catalyst through CVS’s PBM channel.[25:18] FDA acceleration: priority review vouchers and faster approvalsJason covers a rapid approval example and what it implies about timelines, costs, and the evolving regulatory playbook.[26:16] Clinical trials shift: fewer Phase 3 requirements and higher ROI on R&DThey discuss how moving from “two Phase 3 trials” toward “one + longer follow-up” can change economics for smaller biotechs and drug development broadly.[28:16] Vertex as a healthcare execution benchmarkIn a “Nvidia of healthcare” style prompt, the group highlights Vertex as best-in-class at in-house R&D returns and sustained pipeline strength.[29:38] Closing thoughtsA wrap on how US capital markets absorb macro shocks—and why business quality ultimately anchors long-term outcomes.If you found this helpful, grab the Cash Flow Memo, drop a comment with the company you want covered next, and subscribe for weekly episodes on cash flow-first investing.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Is genetic sequencing the future of healthcare? In this Top Mark Capital Fellow Webinar, Montana Joy breaks down how next-generation sequencing is transforming oncology, infectious disease, prenatal testing, and personalized medicine—and why now may be the inflection point.[00:00] Introduction: The Shift Toward Molecular MedicineMike Nicoletti introduces the webinar and frames the central theme: the move from symptom-based care to genetically informed, personalized treatment strategies.[02:00] The Top Mark Fellowship & Research ContextAn inside look at the fellowship program and how a year of structured research led to this deep dive into genetic sequencing and its healthcare implications.[04:38] What Is Genetic Sequencing?Montana explains DNA sequencing basics, genetic variants, and how changes at the molecular level can alter protein production and clinical outcomes.[06:41] Why Sequencing Matters: Cost, Survival, and Early DetectionHow falling sequencing costs and earlier diagnosis can improve survival rates, reduce long-term healthcare costs, and enable preventative medicine.[09:09] Prenatal Genetic Testing: The First Commercial BreakthroughHow non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) brought sequencing into mainstream clinical use and paved the way for broader adoption.[11:34] Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) Testing in OncologyHow cell-free tumor DNA enables continuous molecular monitoring, earlier relapse detection, and more precise post-treatment decisions.[15:22] RNA Vaccines and Precision ImmunotherapyFrom COVID-19 to personalized cancer vaccines, sequencing enables rapid vaccine design and adaptive immune targeting.[18:00] The Sequencing Landscape: Illumina, PacBio, Oxford Nanopore & MoreA breakdown of first-, second-, and third-generation sequencers, key competitive factors (accuracy, speed, cost, volume), and major industry players.[21:43] AI, Machine Learning & the Future of DiagnosticsHow genetic data combined with AI could accelerate diagnostic accuracy and expand personalized oncology and rare disease treatment.[24:00] Multi-Cancer Early Detection (MCED) and Market ExpansionDiscussion of emerging MCED tests, current clinical limitations, and the long-term potential for population-wide cancer screening.[28:36] Beyond Oncology: Infectious Disease & Sickle Cell ApplicationsSequencing applications in infectious disease, genetic disorders, and microbiome-driven treatments.[29:25] FDA Pathways & Personalized RNA TherapiesHow regulators are adapting approval frameworks for individualized, process-driven therapies like personalized cancer vaccines.[33:00] Pharmacogenomics & Universal Sequencing by 2050?A forward-looking discussion: Will everyone be sequenced once in their lifetime? What becomes actionable at $100–$300 per genome?[35:16] Who Wins? Installed Base, Software, and the “Picks & Shovels”Evaluating competitive moats in sequencing—hardware, reagents, installed systems, and the growing importance of software analytics.[40:09] Diagnostic-Driven Healthcare SystemsWhy rising healthcare costs and improving diagnostic accuracy may shift care from provider-driven to diagnostics-first models.Genetic sequencing is no longer just a research tool—it’s becoming foundational to modern healthcare. If you’re interested in the intersection of biotechnology, oncology, and long-term investing, this is a trend worth watching closely.Subscribe for more Top Mark Capital webinars and research discussions exploring the future of healthcare and investing.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, the team digs into the cash flow realities behind energy markets, AI-driven software disruption, and fast-moving healthcare headlines. Plus, they connect the dots between government finances, rates, and the incentives shaping corporate behavior.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo The crew tees up a fast tour through energy, technology, and healthcare using this week’s memo and exhibits.[00:19] Disclaimer Investing discussion for informational purposes only—do your own work.[00:35] Oil demand growth slows, supply stays strong Why global demand growth looks softer (China maturity, EV adoption) and what that implies for WTI absent geopolitical risk.[02:40] Natural gas: “too much production” and power demand flat The group discusses why gas demand in power isn’t accelerating and how policy/regulatory dynamics may be affecting coal retirements.[03:39] Exhibit A: Tariffs, revenues, and the bond market A look at shifting U.S. revenue lines, tariff uncertainty/refunds, and why the 10-year yield matters for housing affordability.[07:06] SaaS disruption: opportunity or value trap? Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Snowflake sell off as investors debate “build vs buy” software in an AI world—and what that means for durable cash flow.[10:00] Switching costs, SLAs, and the real value of software vendors Why uptime, support, and accountability still matter—and why the endpoint may be “more software,” not less.[13:40] Meta’s AMD GPU deal and the Taiwan Semi choke point A breakdown of buyer power in AI chips, why capacity allocation matters, and how warrant structures reshape incentives.[17:16] Streaming and platforms: Disney, Netflix, Meta, Spotify Comparing balance sheets, valuation moves, and how AI could (or won’t) improve these business models.[21:18] Healthcare: GLP-1 price war dynamics What happens when insurance isn’t the payer, Novo vs Lilly pricing pressure, and why safety may be the more important “race” than speed of weight loss.[22:33] UnitedHealth, PBMs, and regulatory whack-a-mole The team discusses PBM vulnerability, potential margin shifts, and why fraud enforcement/data transparency could change incentives.[25:03] Longevity: Yamanaka factors and first-in-human study A look at Life Biosciences, organ “reprogramming” research, and how AI may accelerate earlier-stage discovery.[26:07] Hims & Hers vs Novo Nordisk: compounding, patents, and enforcement How shortages opened the door, where the envelope got pushed too far, and why IP protection underpins pharma innovation.[28:28] Cancer vaccines: additive, not replacing standard of care Why the highest-probability outcome is vaccines reducing recurrence post-treatment—and what that means for future cost and care intensity.[31:05] Grail’s early cancer detection study: promising theory, tough economics The study design trade-offs, funding constraints, and whether improved technology could revive the approach.[33:16] Wrap-up The crew signs off and previews next week—download the Cash Flow Memo and follow along with the exhibits for deeper context.If you found this helpful, like, subscribe, and share the episode—and grab the Cash Flow Memo so you can track the numbers alongside the discussion.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, Mike, Jason, and Hunt move from energy market crosscurrents into an AI-driven “SaaSpocalypse,” then close with high-stakes healthcare updates—from Lilly’s trillion-dollar run to PBM reform and early cancer detection.[00:19] DisclaimerImportant investing and risk disclosure before the discussion begins.[00:29] Exhibit C: Oil, Iran, and Geopolitical RiskCrude holds in the mid-$60s as tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz keep markets on edge. The team weighs U.S. posture, escalation scenarios, and what could force a near-term resolution.[03:00] Exhibit B: Natural Gas Backwardation and Permian PainNatural gas pricing looks oddly soft despite a strong winter for demand, while Waha trades negative through cold weather. The group discusses upcoming pipeline capacity and what it could mean for Henry Hub and Gulf Coast pricing.[04:36] Exhibit A: U.S. Finances, Defense Spending, and the FedA reality check on deficits, interest costs, and the limits of materially higher defense budgets. Hunt also discusses the Fed balance sheet, QT, and how lower short rates may not translate cleanly to long-bond relief.[08:35] SaaSpocalypse: How AI Disrupts Software and Who WinsThe cost of writing code collapses, UI becomes less central, and the market rethinks what a software company actually is. They debate moats, distribution, sales vs. engineering, and why “when AI works, we just call it software.”[12:21] Microsoft Office, File Formats, and Network EffectsIs the Office moat about features—or about interoperability and trust? Jason argues AI could dissolve file-format lock-in via on-the-fly conversion, while Mike counters that pros still need power tools and workflows.[17:11] Big Tech Capex and AI Inference DemandThey connect massive data center spend (Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle) to rising inference usage rather than just training. The team frames this as both opportunity and disruption risk for incumbent SaaS.[21:26] Is Tesla Overvalued? Robotaxis, Regulation, and RealityA hands-on Full Self-Driving trip shapes Jason’s view that the technology is “extremely close,” shifting the bottleneck to regulation. They discuss what has to happen for robotaxi economics to justify Tesla’s valuation.[24:18] Is Eli Lilly Overvalued? Weight Loss, Alzheimer’s, and Direct-to-ConsumerLilly’s trillion-dollar milestone meets a cash-flow and durability debate: long patent lives, strong execution, and a surprisingly large share of prescriptions flowing through a direct-pay platform.[26:00] PBMs in the CrosshairsA bipartisan proposal targets vertically integrated PBM structures, with the group arguing that PBMs’ share of drug economics is distorting incentives. They explain why breaking up the model could shift profit pools back toward drugmakers and patients.[27:29] Multi-Cancer Early Detection: Medicare Reimbursement PathA policy update on potential Medicare reimbursement starting in 2028 for blood-based early cancer detection tests. Jason explains the “needle in a haystack” science and why earlier detection could improve outcomes and lower total costs.[28:29] Vertex: Non-Opioid Pain and CF Competitive LandscapeThey review Vertex’s pain medicine data as a meaningful step toward reducing opioid use in acute settings. The conversation also touches CF innovation and why some competing mRNA approaches have recently stalled.[31:43] Harrow: CVS Formulary Coverage and Early SignalsHarrow lands CVS PBM formulary coverage and becomes the top prescribed dry-eye therapy within CVS workflows. Early prescription signals look promising, though the team notes data remains incomplete.[32:41] Lantheus: Management Reset and Thesis WatchA CEO change brings back leadership from the original investment era. They discuss pricing missteps, why the thesis may still hold, and what they’re watching next.[33:29] BioNTech vs Moderna: Cash Discipline and Vaccine EconomicsBioNTech’s cash preservation gets praise while Moderna navigates FDA review dynamics for its flu vaccine. A candid comment about U.S.-centric profitability highlights how much the U.S. subsidizes life-science innovation.Thanks for listening—download the latest Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us and subscribe for next week’s continued discussion on AI disruption, energy, and healthcare.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, the team runs through the latest Cash Flow Memo and the three exhibits—U.S. government finances, natural gas, and oil—then closes with the massive Big Tech CapEx wave and what it means for chips, data centers, and geopolitics.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo overview Quick setup on the episode’s focus across energy, technology, and healthcare—and how to use the weekly memo alongside the exhibits.[00:19] Disclaimer Important investing and information-use disclaimer before the discussion begins.[00:35] Exhibit C: Oil supply/demand and the Iran “risk premium” Oil prices look meaningfully higher due to potential military action risk, with negotiations likely stretched out—keeping volatility elevated even if the base case is “status quo.”[02:00] Why WTI in the low-60s may persist The group discusses slower global demand growth (especially China) and how surplus capacity could take longer to work off, supporting a range-bound outlook despite the market’s inherent volatility.[03:08] Exhibit B: Natural gas—cold winter, but price disappointment Even with extreme weather, the gas strip remains below the hoped-for $4 level; the conversation centers on why demand isn’t the problem, and why supply growth keeps winning.[05:12] Gas-to-power, coal, and LNG policy shifts Coal plant dynamics, evolving renewable incentives, and LNG export growth (plus new authorizations) reshape the demand mix—while associated gas from the Permian continues to pressure the market.[08:31] Exhibit A: U.S. government cash flow and the rate/issuance puzzle The team discusses balance sheet drawdown ambitions, the risk of stressing long rates, and why Treasury might lean toward shorter maturities even as deficits remain large.[11:06] Page 17: FedEx, UPS, Nike, Costco, Lennar A quick pass on how China and global trade show up differently across logistics, sourcing-heavy consumer brands, retail supply chains, and homebuilding inputs.[12:52] Pages 5–6: Cable vs Telco competition heats up Charter/Comcast and AT&T/Verizon/T-Mobile are less China-exposed today, but face intensifying competition as cable pushes wireless and telcos push fiber and fixed wireless.[14:45] A wild card: SpaceX as a future “telco page” peer The team flags how Starlink could change the competitive landscape—especially for last-mile connectivity.[15:06] Page 16: Restaurants, beverages, and travel—how “international” matters McDonald’s, Starbucks, Chipotle, Celsius, and Hilton spark a discussion on global exposure, brand localization risk, and the long runway (or limits) for beverage expansion abroad.[16:56] Page 7: Payments—MasterCard, Visa, PayPal Why global card networks can be insulated from China in one sense (local payment ecosystems) while still benefiting from worldwide commerce growth.[17:36] Page 15: Pharma and biotech supply chains The group highlights China’s role in inputs and manufacturing, the incentives to reshore, and why smaller biotechs may keep outsourcing due to cost and cash constraints.[20:21] Page 8 + beyond: Retail sourcing and U.S. industrial “moats” Walmart/Target and home improvement retailers feel China most through goods sourcing, while industrial leaders (and aerospace suppliers) raise questions about competition, approvals, and future global demand.[22:51] Page 13: Banks and brokers—global exposure in context A quick look at JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Interactive Brokers—where international activity matters, but may not dominate cash flow.[24:27] Energy pages: why China isn’t the main factor here The group wraps the memo tour with a fast view of energy coverage and why China is less central for the companies highlighted.[25:48] Big Tech CapEx shock: $700B+ and what it implies Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft (and more) are spending at nation-GDP scale; the team debates what’s driving it, how it’s funded, and why “not spending it all” could even be market-positive.[26:41] Chips, capacity, and the TSMC bottleneck question If everyone depends on the same advanced manufacturing base, can supply keep up—and what does that mean for timelines, pricing power, and who benefits?[27:47] Data centers: land, regulation, and the real constraints Beyond chips, the discussion moves to land availability, state-level pushback, and how power procurement and cost allocation can shape where and how fast capacity gets built.[31:09] Cost anatomy of AI infrastructure and the “power isn’t the limiter” view A breakdown of what it takes to build data center capacity—power vs shells vs racks/chips—and why the group believes power can be built out if policy and incentives align.[33:26] Taiwan geopolitics and investing under uncertainty The team closes on Taiwan risk framing, long timelines, and why outcomes may be pursued only when “victory” is assured—military or political.If you’re using the Cash Flow Memo, drop a comment with the tickers you want covered next week—and subscribe so you don’t miss the next exhibit-driven deep dive.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, the team connects the dots between macro headlines and the Cash Flow Memo—spanning energy markets, Fed policy, AI’s impact on software, and where China creates real business exposure across industries.[00:20] DisclaimerA quick reminder that the discussion is informational only and not investment advice.[00:45] Exhibit C: Oil Market SetupUS–Iran negotiations and potential sanctions relief could add supply, while shifting demand dynamics (including India) shape the medium-term oil price outlook.[05:06] Exhibit A: Deficits, the Fed, and a New Chair NarrativeA deep dive into the Federal Reserve balance sheet debate, quantitative tightening, and how policy credibility could ripple into rates, the dollar, and even gold/silver sentiment.[10:44] Space Update: Moon Mission + Space-Based Data CentersNASA’s upcoming moon mission sparks a broader conversation: could data centers move to space, and what are the real engineering constraints (heat, orbits, satellite scale)?[14:48] Software Selloff: Can AI Replace SaaS?The crew unpacks why big software names are under pressure—debating whether AI can truly “code on demand” and what moats still matter (support, mission-critical workflows, and systems of record).[18:11] China Impact (Page 20): Consumer Platforms + Supply Chain RealityA quick scan of consumer-facing businesses and where China matters more through sourcing, manufacturing, and supply chain fragility than direct revenue.[19:16] China Impact (Page 1): Apple and Tesla as the BookendsWhy Apple’s manufacturing footprint and China sales exposure remain central—and how Tesla’s China production influences the risk profile.[21:07] Healthcare Focus (Page 19): Big Pharma vs China’s Rising Biotech StackA practical look at how China is integrating across pharma supply chains (generics, CDMOs/CROs, biologics), and why that could evolve into true competitive pressure over time.[23:40] China Impact (Page 2): Cloud + Model Access StrategyOracle, OpenAI financing, and the logic behind AWS positioning as an aggregator of multiple models—versus single-model platform tie-ups.[26:15] China Impact (Page 18): Copper, Lithium, Solar, and the Energy TransitionHow China’s role in solar equipment, lithium refining, and battery production filters into commodities and utilities—and why lithium refining capacity is becoming strategically important.[31:11] Wrap + Next WeekClosing thoughts and a preview of next week’s episode—plus a note on upcoming additions to the pages as new public market names emerge.If you’re using the Cash Flow Memo alongside the episode, download it, follow along by page, and share the show with an investor friend who cares about fundamentals, cash flow, or sailing.SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, the team connects the dots between macro headlines and the Cash Flow Memo—spanning energy markets, Fed policy, AI’s impact on software, and where China creates real business exposure across industries.[00:20] DisclaimerA quick reminder that the discussion is informational only and not investment advice.[00:45] Exhibit C: Oil Market SetupUS–Iran negotiations and potential sanctions relief could add supply, while shifting demand dynamics (including India) shape the medium-term oil price outlook.[05:06] Exhibit A: Deficits, the Fed, and a New Chair NarrativeA deep dive into the Federal Reserve balance sheet debate, quantitative tightening, and how policy credibility could ripple into rates, the dollar, and even gold/silver sentiment.[10:44] Space Update: Moon Mission + Space-Based Data CentersNASA’s upcoming moon mission sparks a broader conversation: could data centers move to space, and what are the real engineering constraints (heat, orbits, satellite scale)?[14:48] Software Selloff: Can AI Replace SaaS?The crew unpacks why big software names are under pressure—debating whether AI can truly “code on demand” and what moats still matter (support, mission-critical workflows, and systems of record).[18:11] China Impact (Page 20): Consumer Platforms + Supply Chain RealityA quick scan of consumer-facing businesses and where China matters more through sourcing, manufacturing, and supply chain fragility than direct revenue.[19:16] China Impact (Page 1): Apple and Tesla as the BookendsWhy Apple’s manufacturing footprint and China sales exposure remain central—and how Tesla’s China production influences the risk profile.[21:07] Healthcare Focus (Page 19): Big Pharma vs China’s Rising Biotech StackA practical look at how China is integrating across pharma supply chains (generics, CDMOs/CROs, biologics), and why that could evolve into true competitive pressure over time.[23:40] China Impact (Page 2): Cloud + Model Access StrategyOracle, OpenAI financing, and the logic behind AWS positioning as an aggregator of multiple models—versus single-model platform tie-ups.[26:15] China Impact (Page 18): Copper, Lithium, Solar, and the Energy TransitionHow China’s role in solar equipment, lithium refining, and battery production filters into commodities and utilities—and why lithium refining capacity is becoming strategically important.[31:11] Wrap + Next WeekClosing thoughts and a preview of next week’s episode—plus a note on upcoming additions to the pages as new public market names emerge.If you’re using the Cash Flow Memo alongside the episode, download it, follow along by page, and share the show with an investor friend who cares about fundamentals, cash flow, or sailing.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this special “Cashflow Pick’em” edition, the team runs through the Cash Flow Memo and drafts the companies they think will grow free cash flow the most (percentage basis). Along the way, they hit the latest in oil and natural gas, then pivot into healthcare policy and the AI-driven semiconductor buildout.[00:32] Disclaimer Investment discussion for informational purposes only; do your own work before making any decisions.[00:42] Exhibits A–C: Oil, Gas, and U.S. Fiscal Process Oil firms up on geopolitical risk, natural gas rebounds sharply amid cold-weather pricing, and the team notes progress on U.S. spending bills and budgeting timelines.[05:26] Page 9: Energy Majors and LNG Hunt makes his pick among XOM, CVX, COP, OXY, and LNG—favoring LNG on capacity execution and positioning despite broader LNG supply concerns.[05:59] Page 10: Midstream Showdown On KMI, EPD, ET, WES, and ONEOK, Hunt leans toward EPD for integration and consistent operating performance.[06:19] Page 11: Upstream Discipline Test With oil down meaningfully, Hunt selects EOG as the most disciplined operator best suited to manage a tougher commodity tape.[06:45] Page 12: Natural Gas Producers and Midstream Weighing AR, EQT, CHK, and AM, Hunt calls it close but lands on AR, citing solid positioning and management.[08:01] Page 13: Banks and Brokers Jason and Mike both pick IBKR (and note broad AI agreement), while Hunt goes contrarian with GS; they discuss how buybacks vs. organic growth can drive FCF outcomes.[09:11] Page 14: Industrials and Aerospace Jason picks TDG on aircraft production recovery, Mike sticks with GNRC, and Hunt picks CAT—highlighting end-market sensitivity and where operating leverage may show up.[10:01] Healthcare: Big Pharma and Biotech Picks Jason picks LNTH (new prostate diagnostic and Alzheimer’s imaging growth), Mike picks VRTX, and they recap last year’s surprising winner and how baselines can distort growth rates.[11:34] Page 16: Consumer, Restaurants, and Beverage Jason and Mike align on CELH (including growth from Alani Nu), while Hunt goes with CMG and discusses leadership changes and brand durability.[13:28] Page 17: Logistics, Retail, and Housing Jason sticks with FDX (including a thesis around USPS services), while Mike and Hunt pick LEN—framing potential tailwinds for homebuilding and affordability dynamics.[15:01] Page 18: Materials, Fertilizer, and Utilities The team debates FCX vs. ALB vs. CF vs. NEE, focusing on lithium snapback potential, copper strength, and commodity-linked cashflow volatility.[17:05] Page 19: Managed Care and Pharma Giants With UNH, CVS, REGN, and LLY, the group converges on LLY again—weight-loss and Alzheimer’s themes dominate the discussion.[18:41] Page 20: Platforms, Delivery, Travel, and Small-Cap Healthcare Jason and Mike pick HROW again as commercialization scales, while Hunt chooses UBER, arguing the market may be underestimating Uber’s moat as autonomy ramps.[20:20] Scoreboard and Pick Recap They tally results (including AI agents) and reflect on where each host’s picks were strongest vs. weakest.[21:08] Healthcare Policy: PBM Reform and Incentives Jason breaks down PBM-related provisions affecting Medicare Part D incentives and rebates, plus how workarounds (e.g., GPO structures) can blunt intended reforms.[23:05] Administration, FDA Direction, and System-Level Change The team argues that structural regulatory changes to food/health oversight may be more durable than headline-grabbing controversies, emphasizing long-term consumer impact.[26:36] Semiconductors: ASML Bookings and the Capex Reality Check They interpret strong ASML bookings as evidence the AI infrastructure buildout remains real, then discuss TSM capacity constraints, Intel’s catch-up spend, and why partners seek second sources.[29:10] China, Taiwan Risk, and the Next Topic Arc A forward-looking setup for deeper China/Taiwan discussion across the memo universe, with a reading plug for Apple in China and how policy risk filters through real businesses.Thanks for listening. If you want the updated Cash Flow Memo and exhibits, download it at the podcast site—then drop a comment with your own “Pick’em” winners and what data you’re watching this year.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESThis special “Cashflow Pick’em” edition runs a percentage-based free cash flow draft across the memo (pages 1–13), then closes with exhibits on oil, natural gas, and the U.S. budget—plus a healthcare segment featuring GLP-1 dynamics and emerging cancer vaccine data.[00:00] Cashflow Pick’em Format and Ground Rules Host sets the framework: pick the company on each page most likely to grow free cash flow the most on a percentage basis, and keep score versus last year’s predictions.[00:00] Disclaimer Standard informational-purpose disclaimer and reminder to do your own work.[00:00] Big Tech Picks: Tesla vs. Amazon vs. Apple Spending The group reviews last year’s results (Tesla surprised on FCF growth) and debates whether AI data-center CapEx keeps pressuring peers while Tesla benefits off a lower base and optionality (including robotaxi economics).[00:04] Software Picks: ServiceNow, Broadcom, Snowflake, Oracle Lessons ServiceNow won last year, Oracle disappointed, and this year’s debate centers on Broadcom’s AI hardware exposure versus Snowflake as an enabling layer for agentic tooling.[00:06] Semiconductors: Nvidia’s Run Rate vs. TSM CapEx and AMD/Intel Wildcards Nvidia’s dominance is acknowledged, but the conversation digs into bottlenecks, pricing power, and whether heavy foundry CapEx changes the cash flow race.[00:09] Media: Spotify Discipline vs. Netflix Spend and Deal Risk Spotify’s cash flow trajectory and cost discipline face off against Netflix’s content ramp and strategic transaction risks, with Meta and Disney briefly framed through the lens of capital intensity.[00:11] Telecom/Cable: AT&T Cloud RAN Thesis, Charter CapEx, T-Mobile Execution Comcast’s prior-year surprise is noted, then the focus shifts to margin structures, leverage, and whether cloud-based network architectures can unlock better economics.[00:13] Payments: PayPal Turnaround vs. Visa/Mastercard Durability The group leans into operating leverage and improvement potential at PayPal versus steadier compounding models for the networks.[00:14] Retailers: Walmart Resilience, Home Depot Housing Tailwinds, CarMax Turnaround A tough page with shrinking free cash flow leads to a discussion of “least bad” outcomes and what could drive a bounce-back, including housing policy tailwinds.[15:56] Exhibit C (Oil): Supply Discipline, OPEC+ Capacity, and WTI Range A quick state-of-play on global supply, spare capacity trends, and why the base case centers around high-$50s/low-$60s WTI with constrained production increases.[18:55] Exhibit B (Natural Gas): Henry Hub Pressure and LNG Oversupply Risk Natural gas retraces from recent highs as supply builds early; LNG growth remains the hope, but global pricing and oversupply dynamics can cap upside.[20:41] Exhibit A (U.S. Government Finances): Shutdown Risk and Budget Process Discussion on funding deadlines, progress on appropriations, and why a shutdown appears less likely if committees complete key spending bills.[21:54] Healthcare News: JPM Conference, Moderna–Merck Melanoma Data, Illumina Reimbursement Updates on muted deal flow, encouraging long-duration melanoma outcomes from a Moderna–Merck program, and a notable reimbursement development for Illumina-related oncology testing.[24:25] Lilly vs. Novo: GLP-1 Pills, Patents, and the Next Margin Battle The group evaluates oral GLP-1 momentum, patent cliffs outside the U.S., and why manufacturing cost and pricing strategy could reshape share over time.[26:27] Cancer Vaccines: How They Fit Into Treatment and Monitoring A practical framework for vaccines as an “anti-relapse” add-on, the role of MRD/early detection, and how falling test costs could expand routine screening and follow-on interventions.[31:01] Wrap and Next Week They pause the memo walkthrough to finish the remaining pages next episode and invite listeners to follow along with the memo and exhibits.If you want the full context behind each pick, download the Cash Flow Memo and follow along page-by-page. Subscribe for next week’s continuation of the cashflow predictions and more updates across energy, technology, and healthcare.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode of Telltales, Mike, Jason, and Hunt walk through their 2026 surprises across healthcare, tech, and energy—then tie it back to what cash flow investors should actually watch. Expect big calls on pharma M&A, AI in healthcare workflows, macro deficits, and the durability of Nvidia’s profit engine.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo Quick setup on the weekly memo and the focus areas for this episode: energy, technology, and healthcare.[00:25] Disclaimer Standard informational-only disclaimer before the discussion begins.[00:35] Healthcare Surprises for 2026 The group frames the “surprises” format and tees up Jason and Mike before Hunt’s larger policy thesis.[01:01] 2026 Could Be the Biggest Pharma M&A Year Ever Jason argues looming patent cliffs could force massive dealmaking just to keep sales flat—setting up a potentially historic acquisition cycle.[02:33] High Fructose Corn Syrup Ban Thesis A policy-driven surprise: Jason predicts a push to ban high fructose corn syrup as a simpler lever than restructuring agricultural subsidies.[02:56] Functional Cure for Parkinson’s via Cell & Gene Therapy Jason outlines why a breakthrough approval could arrive quickly—and why it could reignite investor optimism in the broader cell/gene complex.[04:36] AI Agent Doctors and Prescription Workflows Mike predicts “agentic” healthcare interactions; Jason points to real-world pilots aimed at reducing friction in routine prescription refills.[05:58] Medicare for All as a Bipartisan Surprise Hunt lays out a scenario where Medicare expands eligibility broadly, potentially eliminating Medicaid and shrinking the uninsured population—plus the deficit math challenges.[13:15] UnitedHealthcare, PBMs, and Structural Pressure The conversation touches on insurer economics, PBM exposure, and how policy shifts could reallocate (or disrupt) the healthcare profit pool.[14:10] AI in Healthcare: HIPAA-Compliant Tools and Workflow Enablement The group discusses AI applications in medical records and patient education, and why healthcare is becoming a prime arena for LLM deployment.[16:08] Oil Exhibit C: Resilient Prices Amid Geopolitics Hunt reviews production context (Iran, Venezuela) and why oil may hold in a higher range despite arguments for lower pricing.[17:38] Natural Gas Exhibit B: Production Surge and Power Demand Reality Check A high-supply setup led by the Permian meets softer “gas to power” demand—while LNG feed gas remains a key bright spot.[19:26] U.S. Government Finances Exhibit A: Deficit Focus and Spending Discipline Tariffs, entitlement reality, and the central objective: bending the deficit trajectory down over the next fiscal years.[21:41] Apple-Google: Gemini-Powered Siri Deal The group breaks down what the deal signals strategically and why “memory” and switching costs could define the next era of AI platforms.[23:45] Retail Updates: Walmart, Target, and Amazon’s Reinvestment Machine Hunt revisits Walmart’s free cash flow and compares retail positioning, while highlighting Amazon’s extreme R&D and capex reinvestment intensity.[27:00] Is Nvidia’s Margin Sustainability the Key Tech Question? Nvidia’s free cash flow conversion, hyperscaler capex expectations, and the integrated “full stack” advantage (compute, networking, cooling) that may defend margins.[30:42] Next Week Preview: China Exposure Across the Memo The team tees up a two-part run through the memo’s companies with a focus on China risk, Taiwan Semiconductor, and regulatory constraints.If you found this helpful, download the latest Cash Flow Memo and follow the channel for weekly episodes covering energy, technology, and healthcare through a cash flow lens. Share the episode with an investor who cares about fundamentals, not narratives.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This week on Telltales, Mike, Jason, and Hunt continue their “surprise” predictions for 2026. This week, focusing on tech related surprises. Then they shift into the memo’s exhibits on oil, natural gas, and U.S. government finances. They close with timely healthcare updates and a rapid-fire run through major news on pages 1–4.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales Mike introduces the Cash Flow Memo and previews a fast tour through energy, technology, and healthcare.[00:00] Disclaimer A quick reminder: this conversation is informational only and not investment advice.[00:30] 5 Tech Surprises for ’26 The team frames the segment as “surprises” that run against conventional wisdom, setting up five big tech calls.[01:41] #1 Stablecoins surpass SWIFT (monthly volume) Why stablecoins could become a dominant rail for cross-border dollar flows, and what regulation changes might mean.[04:09] #2 Tesla robotaxi rides beat Waymo (weekly) The case for a faster network rollout, plus skepticism around why autonomy scaling has been slower than expected.[06:17] #3 First quantum break of a crypto wallet A prediction that a dormant, high-value wallet gets cracked via brute-force quantum capability, distinct from “traditional” hacks.[08:04] #4 xAI leads foundation models by end of ’26 A debate on whether hardware scale and speed to deploy new systems could shift leadership in frontier AI models.[10:43] #5 Federal AI legislation passes The group discusses incentives for a single national framework versus a patchwork of state rules.[11:26] Macro surprise: Republicans hold the House A quick political curveball and how it could influence the policy backdrop for tech, crypto, and AI.[12:04] Sponsor break: Oakcliff Sailing A brief interlude on hands-on composite repair training and high-performance sailing programs.[13:13] Exhibit C: Oil and Venezuela Hunt breaks down why Venezuela’s “reserves” story is complicated, what heavy oil economics imply, and why Chevron flows matter for prices.[16:56] Exhibit B: Natural Gas and the Permian Warmer weather, weak Waha pricing, rising associated gas, and LNG liftings all collide in the 2026 setup.[18:53] Exhibit A: U.S. finances and the deficit path Why they think the deficit can keep shrinking with growth + inflation, and what to watch around potential shutdown headlines.[21:50] Healthcare news JPMorgan Healthcare Conference expectations, Novo Nordisk’s pill-form weight-loss move, Eli Lilly’s competitive dynamics, and why MRD testing could reshape trial design and treatment timing.[24:38] Pages 1–4: Tech and market news round-up Netflix and Warner deal chatter, antitrust workarounds, Nvidia’s next-gen platform economics, xAI fundraising, JPM’s “Proxy IQ,” ASML talent leakage concerns, and what it means to onshore leading-edge chips.[35:06] Next week The team tees up “healthcare surprises” for the next episode and signs off.If you found this useful, grab the latest Cash Flow Memo and follow along with Exhibits A–C as you listen. Subscribe for next week’s healthcare surprise episode and drop a comment with your boldest 2026 prediction.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

A rapid-fire “surprises for 2026” episode—contrarian macro + energy calls, then quick year-end check-ins for tech and healthcare through a cash-flow lens.[00:20] Disclaimer Informational only, not investment advice.[00:30] Macro & Energy Surprises Framework “Five-and-a-half surprises” for 2026: plausible outcomes that run against consensus.[01:24] Surprise: Debt-to-GNP Falls A scenario where the deficit narrows enough that debt held by the public declines (as % of GNP) by ~1 point.[02:40] Surprise: NRC Issues 2 Reactor Construction Permits A call that the nuclear regulator approves two new builds—potentially one traditional large reactor and one SMR.[04:39] Surprise: Private Fusion Hits Ignition A major fusion milestone happens outside a national lab—important progress, even if commercialization is still distant.[05:57] Reality Check: Nuclear Economics Debate on who eats overruns and how cost-of-capital + rate structures can cap nuclear’s rollout.[08:43] Surprise: Gas Supply Stays Strong Pushback on “associated gas is rolling over” narratives; the case that supply holds up into 2026.[10:05] Surprise: $5 Natural Gas A demand-driven bull case (LNG + data centers) that lifts marginal costs and resets the price band higher.[11:49] Surprise: China Oil Demand Re-Accelerates The team argues China could return to demand growth, challenging “peak demand” assumptions.[12:34] Next Two Weeks Preview Same “surprises” format continues—next week tech, following week healthcare.[12:54] Exhibit C: Oil Quick scan of oil + geopolitics; acknowledge headline risk without anchoring forecasts to low-probability events.[13:25] Exhibit B: Natural Gas Check the strips and structure (e.g., backwardation/contango) and what it implies for pricing.[13:51] Exhibit A: US Government Finances A fast read on fiscal dynamics and the political incentives shaping spending/subsidies.[17:31] Tech Updates Year-end thoughts on major semis/software—Nvidia + Groq talk, plus Amazon’s Graviton and CPU economics.[21:09] Healthcare Updates Preview themes: opioids, depression treatments, and drug pricing—plus how subsidies/incentives affect utilization and costs.[27:52] Wrap-Up Closing thoughts and a reminder: next week is tech surprises, then healthcare surprises—subscribe so you don’t miss them.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

This week the team speeds through Exhibits A–C (U.S. finances, natural gas, and oil) before revisiting last year’s “10-ish surprises” and what they signal for 2026 across energy, tech, and healthcare.[00:20] Disclaimer This conversation is for informational purposes only—do your own work before making any investment decision.[00:39] Exhibit C: Oil & the “shadow fleet” Brent rebounds as the U.S. boards a shadow-fleet tanker; the crew discusses how stepped-up enforcement could tighten sanctioned supply and push oil back toward the $70s.[03:48] Exhibit B: Natural gas & LNG economics Cold weather supports near-term gas, but the bigger focus is potential LNG oversupply and the all-in cost math of shipping U.S. gas to Europe and Asia (JKM).[06:00] Exhibit A: Deficits, rates, and healthcare costs They argue future deficit progress likely requires expense discipline—especially Medicare/Medicaid—while debating how Fed cuts may (or may not) translate into a lower 10-year Treasury.[07:46] “10-ish Surprises” framework for 2025 A Byron Wien–style review: what surprised in 2025, what didn’t happen, and next week we will roll out our list for 2026[08:39] Energy surprises: Saudi strategy & LNG permits Saudi Arabia appears more willing to defend market share in a weak market, while U.S. policy shifts reignite momentum for LNG project approvals.[09:49] Fusion timeline watch The group revisits the “private fusion ignition” idea and why milestones like Commonwealth Fusion’s 2027 target keep the theme alive.[10:32] Tech surprises: Apple/Google, Tesla, and AV policy They cover the iPhone-to-Android “miss,” antitrust pressure on Google’s default search deal with Apple, Tesla’s growing in-car voice controls, and the continued patchwork of autonomous-vehicle regulation.[12:44] AI adoption: hype vs. enterprise reality Demand is booming, but real business use cases still lag—Mike frames 2026 as a potential “early CRM” moment where pilots finally become production workflows.[14:54] Creators and GenAI Influencers aren’t “replaced,” but AI-assisted and AI-native content is accelerating—especially short-form, multi-clip storytelling formats.[16:19] Healthcare surprises: AI in drug development They debate what qualifies as an “AI-designed” drug and highlight the FDA’s move toward more in-silico modeling and reduced reliance on animal testing.[18:46] Food policy: corn syrup and incremental change RFK-era efforts show traction on certain additives, but banning corn syrup remains a tougher political/economic lift.[19:37] Macro surprises: spending, auctions, and geopolitics They revisit the “$500B improvement” (more revenue than lower spending), note that crisis scenarios didn’t materialize, and discuss rolling forward China–Taiwan—plus the “one-person unicorn” concept.[23:19] Next week preview More 2026 surprises incoming—shadow-fleet enforcement, quantum computing, and a tighter rule: cap the list at 20.Download the latest Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us, and subscribe so you don’t miss next week’s continuation of the 2026 surprises list.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, the team runs quickly through the memo’s Exhibits A–C (US finances, natural gas, and oil), then digs into the shifting competitive landscape in AI chips—Google, Nvidia, Broadcom, and the hyperscalers’ next moves.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo A quick setup for a cross-sector episode spanning energy, technology, and healthcare—and a reminder to download the memo.[00:00:20] Disclaimer Important investing and risk disclosures before the discussion begins.[00:00:40] Exhibit C: Oil — Oversupply and price pressure The group discusses rising surplus capacity, the market’s reaction to weaker growth expectations (including China), and why certain geopolitical headlines may matter less than they seem.[00:02:21] Exhibit B: Natural Gas — LNG margins and Europe pricing A look at softer gas pricing despite cold weather, the economics of getting LNG to Europe, and what shifting European supply dynamics could mean.[00:03:45] Exhibit A: US Government Finances — Deficit trends and rate sensitivity The deficit outlook improves into 2026, with discussion on revenue growth, expense discipline, interest costs, and the 2s/10s spread as a key watch item.[00:05:07] Why Google needs Broadcom & Nvidia does not The core segment: Google’s “software-orchestrator” DNA behind TPUs, Broadcom’s role as an industrialization partner, and Nvidia’s end-to-end “AI factory” strategy across chips, networking, and systems.[00:18:59] The case for the MAG 6 (and the risks to watch) A year-end reflection on portfolio construction: why a handful of dominant platforms may be hard to ignore—and how to think about “Intel/IBM-style” downside risk inside today’s winners.[00:26:19] Healthcare Updates — IPO talk and FDA acceleration Notes on a major healthcare IPO narrative, plus a standout FDA action tied to strong multiple myeloma data and what faster review pathways could signal.[00:28:04] Next Week + Wrap A scheduling update (Monday sessions), a preview of predictions, and a closing reminder to stay healthy and keep up with the memo.If you found this helpful, subscribe for weekly episodes and grab the latest Cash Flow Memo so you can follow along with the companies, exhibits, and valuation framework discussed.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this episode of the Telltales Podcast, Mike, Hunt, and Jason walk through the latest Cash Flow Memo—from US government finances and energy markets to a deep-dive on Nvidia and the AI data center buildout. They revisit the “Nvidia’s Five Risks” memo 18 months later and ask what could still derail the story for investors focused on cash flow.[00:00] Welcome & what’s in the Cash Flow MemoMike kicks off the episode with the usual Telltales introduction, highlights the Cash Flow Memo, and sets up a 30-minute tour through energy, technology, healthcare, and US government finances tied to Exhibits A, B, and C.[00:00:20] Disclaimer & investing ground rulesStandard disclosure that the conversation is for informational purposes only, not investment advice, and that listeners must do their own work before making investing decisions.[00:00:43] Exhibit C – Oil, China’s slowdown & a maturing global cycleHunt walks through Exhibit C, noting flat oil demand growth in China, the US, and Europe, arguing that China’s economy looks more “mature” and that global oil consumption growth should slow toward ~600,000 barrels per day, with implications for crude prices and upstream oil producers.[00:02:00] Exhibit B – Natural gas, Permian overproduction & negative Waha pricesExhibit B shows a very different picture for gas: cold weather, near-month prices spiking toward $5, the 2026 strip around $4+, and yet associated gas from the Permian keeps pushing production higher, leading to bizarre negative prices at the Waha hub and a tricky setup for upstream gas investors.[00:04:08] Exhibit A – US deficit, healthcare costs & the path for interest ratesTurning to Exhibit A, Hunt explains why fiscal year 2026 could look slightly better than 2025, how moderating healthcare and Medicaid growth could help stabilize the deficit, and why keeping debt-to-GDP near or below ~100% is crucial for anchoring long-term interest rates.[00:06:02] Inflation targets, deglobalization & the politics of power pricesJason questions whether the Fed’s 2% inflation goal is realistic in a deglobalizing world, while Hunt focuses on gasoline and electricity bills, arguing that regulators should “wall off” AI data centers from retail power rates and that utility regulation will become a bigger political issue.[00:08:22] Setting up Nvidia: revisiting “Hyperscale CapEx and Nvidia’s Five Risks”Hunt hands the conversation to Mike to revisit their August 2024 memo on Nvidia’s five key risks, explaining how Nvidia became the most valuable company in the world and why it’s time to compare the original risk map with what actually happened.[00:09:55] Risk #1 – CapEx digestion & token demand vs. GPU buildoutMike reviews the fear that hyperscalers would overbuild data centers and then “digest” CapEx, but notes that 18 months later Nvidia’s data center revenue is running north of $200 billion and older A100 GPUs are still fully utilized, shifting the key question to whether inference token demand can keep pace with GPU capacity.[00:12:14] Risk #2 – Depreciation mismatch & AI economics vs. accountingThe team revisits the concern that extending server depreciation lives to five or six years might overstate earnings if GPUs become obsolete faster, concluding it’s mostly a non-issue for big platforms like Google and Meta but something to watch for “neo-clouds” if their average contract lengths shorten.[00:15:28] Risk #3 – The AI scaling wall, X’s Colossus & the rise of networkingMike explains why the feared “scaling wall” hasn’t arrived, how X’s massive H100 clusters (Colossus) showed that coherent mega-clusters can leapfrog competitors, and why Nvidia’s networking stack—boosted by the Mellanox acquisition—is becoming as important as the chips themselves.[00:17:55] Risk #4 – Non-chip bottlenecks: software efficiency, power & export controlsThey tackle non-chip constraints: DeepSeek’s efficiency gains and Jevons Paradox (cheaper tokens driving more demand), severe power bottlenecks that leave Microsoft with idle chips awaiting grid connections, and geopolitical export controls that periodically restrict Nvidia’s ability to sell GPUs into China.[00:20:28] Risk #5 – Competition from Google, AMD, TPUs and custom siliconThe conversation turns to competitive threats: AMD as a perpetual second source, Google’s TPU v7 and its own coherent clusters powering Gemini, and custom ASICs for workloads large enough to justify re-architecting software, even as Nvidia remains the default platform for most AI data center compute.[00:21:51] Nvidia’s valuation, free cash flow growth & token-driven demandHunt walks through Nvidia’s latest numbers and a free cash flow multiple around 40–45x, asking whether 20% annual growth is realistic, while Jason and Mike discuss the massive potential if CPU-based data centers transition to GPU/TPU-based AI infrastructure over many years.[00:25:27] Healthcare, legal work & the real drivers of token growthJason highlights early healthcare AI use cases in medical note-taking and radiology, contrasts them with heavy-token workloads like long legal documents, and explains why reasoning models that do hundreds or thousands of inference steps per answer—and multimodal, audio/video-heavy interfaces—could supercharge token consumption.[00:28:50] Programming note & teaser: Why Google needs Broadcom (and Nvidia doesn’t)Hunt closes with a scheduling note for the Christmas and New Year’s weeks, reiterates their commitment to 52 episodes a year, and teases next week’s 10-minute segment on why Google needs Broadcom while Nvidia doesn’t.Thanks for listening to Telltales—subscribe, grab the free Cash Flow Memo at Telltales.us, and share this episode with a friend who’s trying to understand AI, energy, and cash-flow-based investing. Drop a comment with the next company or sector you want the team to put through the cash flow wringer.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, Mike, Jason, and Hunt break down the big moving pieces across energy, technology, and healthcare—anchored by the latest Cash Flow Memo and the three macro exhibits. The centerpiece: Alphabet’s “comeback,” what really changed inside Google, and where AI may go next.[00:00] Welcome to Telltales + Cash Flow Memo[00:20] Disclaimer[00:31] Exhibit C: Oil and geopoliticsHunt frames oil’s near-term setup through the lens of Russia/Ukraine developments and what that could mean for crude pricing.[00:46] Exhibit B: Natural Gas—weather boost, but supply riskNatural gas catches a bid with supportive weather, but Hunt flags higher dry gas production and questions around LNG economics and potential oversupply.[02:34] Exhibit A: US government finances + debt trajectoryA deficit-and-debt reality check, including the politics around extending subsidies and the broader challenge of stabilizing debt as a share of GDP.[06:27] WSJ watch: extraditions and the Mexico angleMike flags a Wall Street Journal piece on extradited Mexican drug lords and why it stood out for him.[06:59] Don’t call it a comeback: Alphabet/Google and AIThe group unpacks why Google “came back” in AI: not sudden discovery, but finally shipping—plus the internal tension of protecting the search cash machine while deploying chat-first products.[17:51] Memo Page 1: Alphabet vs mega-cap peers + antitrust contextHunt highlights just how massive Alphabet’s revenue/cash flow footprint is relative to Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft—and how AI shifts the framing around search and “monopoly” narratives.[21:17] Healthcare news: switching gearsAfter tech dominates the first half, the team pivots to healthcare catalysts and policy considerations.[21:28] Vertex: Morgan Stanley upgrade and kidney disease opportunityJason summarizes the upgrade thesis and how risk-adjusted revenue expectations could build meaningfully into the 2030s.[22:00] Harrow: Vevye becomes Tier 1 on CVS formularyA tangible commercial catalyst: Tier 1 status can shift volume, lower copays, and potentially improve realized pricing dynamics.[22:55] 340B program changes: incentives, spreads, and reform attemptsJason explains how 340B evolved from safety-net intent into a profit engine for many hospitals—and what pending changes may do (and not do) to fix the system.[24:52] ACA tax credit deal: extend now, reform nextA practical debate: don’t create a coverage cliff, but use the urgency to push transparency, catastrophic-coverage thinking, and patient incentives.[28:58] Next week previewA tease for what’s coming—potentially a focused segment on key risks facing NVIDIA, with more healthcare deep-dives promised soon.Thanks for listening—download the Cash Flow Memo to follow along with the numbers, and subscribe so you don’t miss next week’s breakdown.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode of Telltales, Mike, Jason, and Hunt walk through the latest Cash Flow Memo, from global oil and gas balances and U.S. deficits to Big Tech’s AI platform war and key healthcare and biotech updates. It’s a tour of where cash is really being earned today in energy, technology, and healthcare.[00:00] Welcome, disclaimer & how to use the Cash Flow MemoMike kicks things off with the Telltales framework, a reminder to download the memo at telltales.us, and the usual “do your own work” investing disclaimer.[00:31] Exhibit C: Oil, OPEC+ and a long stretch of $60 crudeHunt walks through global oil supply and demand, highlighting Russian declines, Saudi increases, and flat demand in mature economies and China that could keep oil around $60 (or below) for 24–30 months before the market rebalances.[06:03] Exhibit B: Natural gas supply wave, LNG buildout & data centersThey dissect the relentless growth in U.S. gas supply—especially associated gas from the Permian—volatile Henry Hub pricing, and how LNG exports and power demand (including AI data centers) are key to absorbing the glut.[10:50] Exhibit A: U.S. deficits, healthcare subsidies & rising interest costsHunt reviews the federal budget picture, the fight over extending ACA tax credits, Medicare and Medicaid pressures, and why falling Fed funds rates may not translate cleanly into lower 10-year yields and mortgage rates.[13:26] The platform war Apple lost to NVIDIAMike and Jason tell the story of CUDA vs OpenCL, how NVIDIA turned GPUs into a proprietary compute platform, why Apple retreated into Metal and Apple Silicon, and how that history explains today’s Gemini-powered Siri and Apple’s “rent the brain, own the user context” strategy.[23:42] Big Tech scoreboard & AI market leadershipThe team compares market caps of NVIDIA, Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft, discusses “Mag 6” dynamics (minus Tesla), and weighs how much of Big Tech’s strength is justified cash flow versus AI-driven froth.[25:36] Vertex: non-opioid pain strategy and next-gen channel targeting (memo p.15)Jason updates Vertex’s non-opioid pain franchise, steady prescription growth, and early optimism around a new binding site targeting another pain channel as programs transition into human testing.[26:16] Eli Lilly drops CVS Caremark for a smaller PBM (memo p.19)They cover Lilly’s switch from CVS Caremark to Rightway, how conflicts of interest at large insurer-owned PBMs distort drug pricing, and why a more neutral model could better align incentives.[26:44] CMS moves to close outpatient billing loopholesJason explains CMS’s push toward site-neutral payments for drug administration, especially chemo given in outpatient centers billed at hospital rates, and what that could mean for cancer care costs and Medicare spending.[27:42] mRNA cancer vaccines: Moderna vs BioNTech’s cash flow choices (memo p.15)Hunt, Jason, and Mike frame “cancer vaccines” as personalized post-treatment immunization, then contrast BioNTech’s cash-rich, capital-disciplined position with Moderna’s heavier post-COVID burn and what that implies for long-term investors.Thanks for listening to Telltales. If this episode helped you think differently about cash flows and moats in energy, tech, and healthcare, hit subscribe, leave a review, and grab the full Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode of the Telltales Podcast, Mike, Jason and Hunt walk through the latest Cash Flow Memo, tying together US fiscal policy, oil and gas fundamentals, and the cash-hungry AI build-out at Apple, Amazon, Nvidia and more. They also dive into GLP-1 pricing wars, ophthalmology upstarts, and how post-COVID cash piles are being spent in biotech.[00:00] Welcome, format & Cash Flow Memo overview[00:20] Quick disclaimer (informational only)[00:30] Exhibit C – Oil demand, OPEC and a “mature” ChinaHunt reviews OPEC’s restrained production increases and how slower global liquid fuel demand growth, especially from a now-mature China, is extending the time needed to work off surplus barrels. They discuss why macro risks (Iran, Russia) may still keep WTI around $60 despite sluggish demand.[02:20] Exhibit B – US natural gas, LNG and power demand The crew breaks down booming LNG demand versus relentless US gas supply growth from the Permian, Haynesville and Marcellus. Negative Waha hub pricing, pipeline constraints to the Gulf Coast, coal’s temporary share gain in power, and the likely return of gas-fired growth post-2026 all feature.[03:34] Exhibit A – US deficits, debt-to-GDP and the dollar Hunt walks through US government revenues, spending and a projected $400–500B deficit reduction in 2026, contrasting America’s path with China, Europe and Japan. They highlight how stabilizing debt-to-GDP around ~100% and a potentially stronger dollar could support capital markets.[04:54] Apple, Siri & the Gemini deal: renting AI instead of building it (Memo p.1)Hunt, Jason and Mike dig into Apple’s decision to license Google’s Gemini model to upgrade Siri, while keeping the model on Apple-controlled servers for privacy and antitrust reasons. They contrast Apple’s historically low ~$12B CapEx with Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft, and debate whether running large language models will finally force Apple to “spend like a hyperscaler.”[07:00] Hardware vs software at Apple, and the next CEO profile (Memo p.1)Mike recalls Apple’s earlier need to buy NeXT for its OS, drawing a parallel to today’s LLM lag. They argue that under Jobs, software quality led hardware, whereas under Cook, hardware has leapt ahead while software (Siri, iOS polish) has slipped—shaping why a hardware-centric leader like John Ternus may be the logical next CEO.[09:00] Google’s incentives, Apple’s privacy stance & why not just use Google’s cloud? (Memo p.1 – AAPL, GOOGL)The hosts question whether a $1B annual fee truly compensates Google for tailoring Gemini to Apple silicon and serving it from Apple data centers. They explain why Apple can’t simply run AI off Google’s cloud without undermining its security narrative and App Store defense.[11:00] TSMC, Nvidia vs Apple and the chip supply pecking order (Memo p. 1, 3 – AAPL TSM NVDA)Hunt quizzes Jason on who is the bigger TSMC customer now—Apple or Nvidia—and how priority access to leading-edge nodes has shifted. They touch on AMD’s timing on new process nodes, hints of a historical feud between Steve Jobs and Jensen Huang, and why Apple still relies on laptop-class chips in its data centers.[14:58] Harrow Health: retina focus and salesforce strategy shift (Memo p.20)Turning to healthcare, the team revisits Harrow’s progress commercializing its ophthalmology portfolio, especially one drug with slower-than-expected uptake. Jason explains Harrow’s pivot to target retina surgeons more directly and sell a broader basket of products through a focused salesforce.[15:54] GLP-1 wars: Novo Nordisk vs Eli Lilly on price (Memo p.19)On page 19, they examine Novo Nordisk’s response to Lilly’s lead in GLP-1s, with Novo aggressively undercutting pricing on Ozempic/Wegovy to ~$199–349 per month for self-pay patients. Jason notes this is a rare corner of healthcare where competition and out-of-insurance purchasing have driven prices from ~$1,200 to ~$200 a month in just a year.[17:09] Regeneron’s Eylea cliff and new eye-care competition (Memo p.19)Mike outlines how Regeneron’s Eylea faces a wave of biosimilar competition, underwhelming uptake of Eylea HD, and new implant-based therapies that reduce injection frequency to every 6–12 months. They still respect Regeneron as a company, but highlight mounting pressure on this key franchise.[18:12] Vertex: cystic fibrosis strength and non-opioid pain optionality (Memo p.15)The conversation moves to Vertex’s healthy cystic fibrosis business and its potential upside from novel pain medicines awaiting clarity under the US “No Pain Act.” Jason emphasizes how reimbursement decisions could unlock broader coverage and meaningfully expand the addressable market.[18:47] BioNTech vs Moderna: who kept their COVID cash? (Memo p.15)Hunt contrasts BioNTech’s ~€14B cash hoard with Moderna’s reduced ~$4.5B balance, despite both enjoying COVID windfalls. He credits BioNTech’s more conservative founders—who famously still bike to work—as an example of capital discipline, and hints at a new analytical angle on both names reserved for a future episode.[19:47] Mega-cap tech CapEx: Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Tesla (Memo pp.1–2)Back on page 1, they compare Apple’s modest CapEx with Amazon’s staggering ~$110B spend and ~$90B R&D budget, plus Microsoft’s $70B CapEx. The hosts note that while free cash flow can look lower in the short run, these companies are plowing enormous sums into data centers and AI infrastructure.[22:12] Oracle’s big bet on OpenAI (Memo p.2)On the software page, they highlight Oracle’s ~$27B CapEx run rate and its heavy commitment to building data centers for OpenAI, despite having far less free cash flow (and more debt) than Microsoft or Amazon. This raises questions about how much balance-sheet strain Oracle can comfortably bear.[22:44] Nvidia earnings preview, hyperscalers vs “Neo-Cloud” buyers (Memo p.3)Turning to page 3, the team previews Nvidia’s post-close earnings, noting that hyperscalers now account for slightly more than half of Nvidia’s sales, including high-margin networking gear. Jason labels the rest of the customer base “Neo-Cloud”—banks like JPMorgan, big pharma R&D shops, government labs, research supercomputers and sovereign data centers worldwide.[25:38] Nvidia margins, the “tax” on AI and how long it can last (Memo p.3)They marvel at Nvidia’s ~$170B revenue run rate with over half dropping to free cash flow after CapEx, R&D and taxes. Jason will be watching gross margins closely to see if the “Nvidia tax” can hold as Blackwell ramps, networking mix shifts and capex budgets eventually hit limits.[26:26] Wrap-up, next-week teaser & closing disclaimerTo dig into the full numbers, exhibits, and company-by-company cash flow detail discussed in this episode, download the latest Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us. If you enjoy this format, please like, subscribe, and share the Telltales Podcast with a friend who loves deep-dive investing conversations.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode of the Telltales Podcast, Mike, Jason, and Hunt walk through the weekly Cash Flow Memo: oil, gas, and US government finances, then dive deep into Taiwan Semiconductor’s history and the future of chip manufacturing, before closing with tech headlines and high-impact healthcare updates. Along the way they connect physics, policy, and business models back to cash flows and the durability of different franchises.[00:00] Intro[00:20] Disclaimer[00:30] Exhibit C: Oil Demand Slows, Supply Investment in Focus[02:55] Exhibit B: Natural Gas, LNG & Power Demand[04:32] Exhibit A: US Deficit, Tariffs & Shutdown Drama[05:29] History of TSMC & Morris Chang’s Foundry Revolution[08:31] TSMC vs the Old Guard: From “Real Men Have Fabs” to Neutral Foundry (p. 3)[10:53] Apple, EUV & TSMC as a Geopolitical Chokepoint (p. 3)[13:45] The Future of Fabs: EUV vs X-Ray & Substrate’s Bet (p. 3)[17:20] Economics, Power Needs & Who Adopts X-Ray Fabs First (p. 3)[22:50] Tech News: Amazon’s Data Center Build-Out & AI Power Constraints (p. 1)[24:05] Uber + Nvidia Robotaxis & The AV “Three-Way Contest” (pp. 1, 3, 20)[25:10] Tesla FSD v13 Test Ride – Getting “Very Good” (p. 1)[25:31] Harrow: Lawsuit Overhang vs Branded-Drug Growth (p. 20)[27:30] Harrow’s Melt Pharmaceuticals Deal & Capital Allocation (p. 20)[28:57] Vertex: Kidney Disease Breakthrough & Fast-Track Timeline (p. 15)[31:16] Vertex’s Non-Opioid Pain Drug & Reimbursement Uncertainty (p. 15)[31:52] FDA Leadership & Regulatory Stability To keep up with future episodes of the Telltales Podcast, download the weekly Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us and subscribe wherever you listen. If you’re enjoying these deep dives into cash-flow-driven investing across energy, technology, and healthcare, consider sharing the show with a friend or colleague.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESThis week we connect the dots across oil & gas markets, the rise of dollar-pegged stablecoins, and tech’s CapEx surge—then wrap with healthcare M&A and GLP-1 distribution shifts. Expect sharp takes, real numbers, and what it all means for cash flow and valuation.[00:00] Intro [00:20] Disclaimer [00:30] Exhibit C: Oil—OPEC+ restraint & a flat curve Oil hovers near $60 as OPEC+ (including Russia) keeps supply tight, flattening the forward curve. Limited monthly additions may be enough to hold prices and gradually curb non-OPEC supply growth.[01:45] Exhibit B: Natural Gas—Term structure resilience While near-dated gas has been choppy, the 2026 strip holds around ~$4, signaling longer-term support even as the front of the curve softens.[02:03] Exhibit A: U.S. Fiscal—Deficit glidepath & the dollar Targets to bring the deficit down from ~1.9T toward ~1.5T (with ~1.1T a better long-run anchor) would improve debt/GDP trajectory. With other major economies levering up, a relatively disciplined U.S. could re-strengthen the dollar.[02:57] Stablecoins vs. Payment Rails—What actually threatens banksStablecoins (not Bitcoin) pose the nearer-term challenge to bank settlement: ~$180B tethered supply and an estimated ~$28T in annual transactions point to real adoption. Large banks (e.g., JPM) pilot 24/7 institutional settlement while providers like Tether/USDC keep pegs via T-bills; upside is always-on money movement, downside is slow base-chain throughput, energy cost, and roll-back limitations.[07:10] Real-world case: Cross-border flows (SpaceX/Starlink) Illustration of collecting multi-currency revenues and quickly neutralizing FX risk by hopping into stablecoins, then sweeping back into U.S. Treasuries for working capital—freeing cash and reducing cycle times.[10:45] Why blockchain won’t replace Visa at checkoutBlocks finalize slowly and propagate across tens of thousands of nodes—fine for large settlements, frustrating at the point of sale. Expect banks to adopt the features (programmability, 24/7, instant-ish settlement) inside more centralized, regulated systems rather than relying on public chains.[13:46] Page 1: Big Tech check-in (AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, TSLA) Q3 prints were broadly strong. Tesla’s valuation (>200× FCF) contrasts with Apple’s richer FCF yield and subdued CapEx, while AMZN/GOOG/MSFT step up AI-driven CapEx, compressing near-term FCF yields.[14:15] Page 4: Meta & friends—spend now, justify later? (NFLX, DIS, META, SPOT) Meta draws heat for outsized OpEx/CapEx without a third-party cloud profit engine. Bulls cite Zuck’s strong historic capital returns and AGI ambition; bears point to revenue timing and the market’s patience.[16:26] Page 1 (cont.): Data center CapEx & the power bottleneckHyperscalers highlight power constraints as a real limiter, explaining “neo-cloud” deals and long-lead grid work. CapEx lifts push FCF multiples higher (lower yields) even as deployed GPU fleets monetize quickly.[19:36] Page 2: Software’s ‘capital-light’ myth (CRM, NOW, SNOW, ORCL, AVGO) Low CapEx ≠ low investment: massive Sales & R&D are the true “maintenance” spend in SaaS. As AI inference costs creep into COGS (e.g., paying model providers), expect margin trade-offs unless revenue productivity jumps.[23:18] Page 3: Nvidia’s cash machine & competitive vectorsWith extraordinary FCF conversion and lighter CapEx than peers, NVDA’s valuation premium draws support. Real competitive risk tilts toward in-house silicon at the clouds (GOOG/AMZN) rather than legacy CPU/GPU rivals.[26:49] Healthcare: M&A thaw, GLP-1 direct channels, and FDA twists Novartis buys Avidity Bio; patent cliffs nudge Big Pharma to replace pipelines via deals. Lilly’s direct channel gains traction (rumored lower out-of-pocket pricing could widen access), while FDA leadership changes and a Huntington’s therapy setback temper optimism. Vertex’s non-opioid analgesic sees early adoption in elective procedures despite payer frictions.[31:34] Next Week: TSMC & non-lithography upstartsTeaser for a TSMC deep dive and a look at a startup pursuing chipmaking beyond traditional lithography—potential implications for capex cycles and competitive moats.Thanks for listening! If this helped your investing process, subscribe, share, and grab the full Cash Flow Memo for all ~80 companies plus Exhibits A–C.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, we connect cash-flow mechanics to headlines across energy, technology, and healthcare. We cover the oil/gas setup, a pragmatic tour through Bitcoin’s history, AI chip supply chains, and a potential reset in U.S. drug pricing.[00:00] Intro (p.1)Welcome to Telltales with Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence. Download the weekly Cash Flow Memo to follow along with updated exhibits and company pages.[00:00] Disclaimer - Informational only—do your own work. No investment advice is offered or implied.[00:00:30] Exhibit C – Oil Fresh U.S. sanctions on Russia’s two largest producers buoyed prices but the impulse is fading. With macro uncertainty and geopolitics in flux, the base case leans toward ~$60 oil, acknowledging wide error bars. Near-term, lower prices would pressure non-OPEC supply growth and could reset upstream equity entry points.[00:01:30] Exhibit B – Natural Gas & Power’26 strip nudged above $4 while the curve stays in modest backwardation. LNG volumes improve into ’25/’26, but U.S. power burn underperformed as higher gas prices pushed coal units harder. View: gas likely anchors closer to ~$4 than $3.50; for E&Ps, hold core positions and be patient adding on potential price-driven equity softness.[00:04:22] Exhibit A – U.S. Fiscal Picture (Exhibit A)Deficit could improve into 2026 on tariff receipts, spending restraint, and somewhat lower interest expense. Social Security ($1.65T est.) and Medicare ($1.20T est.) dwarf most line items while interest rivals defense. Goalpost: nudge Debt-to-GDP from ~102% toward the high-90s by 2027-28—directionality matters even if we don’t get back to pre-COVID levels.[00:07:23] Page 7 – Payments & Protocols: Visa/Mastercard Visa (~$21B FCF on $38B revs) and Mastercard ($15B on ~$30B) convert revenue to free cash at elite rates, long valued ~30× FCF (~3% yield). Litigation remains an overhang, but the duo exemplifies “cash flow over narratives.” Sets up a segue: can blockchains truly threaten these rails?[00:09:26] Blockchain History, Part 1 – BitcoinFrom DigiCash and the cypherpunk movement to Satoshi’s 2008 whitepaper, Bitcoin launched in 2009 as peer-to-peer electronic cash. Milestones: the Genesis “bank bailout” headline, 10,000-BTC pizza (2010), Silk Road adoption, Coinbase founded (2012), merchant uptake (2013–15), Bitcoin Cash hard fork (2017), and U.S. spot ETF debut (2024). Today, BTC functions more as a store of value than a retail payments rail—by design or by emergent use.[00:17:53] Oakcliff Sailing [00:20:42] Page 1 – Big Tech Roundup (AAPL/AMZN/GOOG/MSFT/TSLA) (p.1)Microsoft’s OpenAI stake is now set at ~27%, raising the question of future 10-Q disclosure detail. iPhone 17’s refresh catalyzes delayed upgrades; the software lift helps, but Apple’s services/software runway remains the bigger debate. Tesla beat on revenue but missed on profitability; strong cash flow, grid-scale batteries, and a Robo-Taxi/CyberCab ramp (including a rumored steering-wheel variant) dominated the call. OpenAI’s benefit corporation points $25B toward health—expect diagnostics and drug discovery to be early targets.[00:24:23] Page 3 – AI Chips & Foundry (NVDA/AMD/INTC/TSMC/ASML) Geopolitics and export policy swirl around Nvidia’s China exposure; strategically, keeping China on the Nvidia software stack reduces tech bifurcation risk. Nvidia’s Blackwell sales + bookings have surpassed ~$0.5T, but TSMC remains the bottleneck. TSMC reported ~39% profit growth and flagged AI wafer demand with a mid-40s CAGR; initial U.S. output (AZ) still requires advanced packaging in Taiwan—globalized, but incrementally reshored.[00:27:48] Healthcare News Express Scripts (Cigna’s PBM) plans to end the rebate model in 2028, moving to cost-plus pharmacy reimbursement with estimates of ~30% savings on branded drugs. This tacitly acknowledges PBM incentives have contributed to higher list prices; a shift could stabilize independent pharmacies and improve transparency.[00:28:45] What’s Next Next week: more blockchain—stablecoins, bank adoption, and collateral/security models. The week after: TSMC and venture-led attempts to challenge advanced chipmaking paradigms.This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com