Drone swarms, missile strikes and worse: Kim Jong-un may apply lessons from Ukraine war to Korean Peninsula This article was originally written in Korean and translated by a bilingual reporter with the help of generative AI tools. It was then edited by a native English-speaking editor. All AI-assisted translations are reviewed and refined by our newsroom.

Analysts warn Kim Jong-un may apply Ukraine war lessons to the Korean Peninsula, using drone swarms, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles to overwhelm the South. Russia's battlefield tactics and technology transfers could reshape North Korea's modern war strategy. [A STUDY OF KIM JONG-UN 4] Russia's massive drone and missile strikes against Ukraine in December last year exposed a new reality of modern warfare: Cheap unmanned aircraft can overwhelm even advanced air defense systems by forcing defenders to burn through costly interceptor missiles. South Korean and overseas analysts now warn that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may try to apply lessons from the war in Ukraine to the Korean Peninsula after North Korean soldiers deployed to the war gain battlefield experience and military technology. Russia launched airstrikes across Ukraine on Dec. 5 and 6 last year. The attacks targeted power plants and railway stations. Moscow launched an attack with 653 long-range suicide drones along with 51 missiles, including Kinzhal hypersonic missiles designed to evade air defenses at high speed, Kh-101 stealth cruise missiles used for long-range precision strikes, Iskander-K and Kalibr cruise missiles capable of low-altitude flight to avoid radar detection and Iskander-M and KN-23 ballistic missiles built to strike targets quickly with maneuverable trajectories. Ukraine's military said it shot down 585 drones, achieving an 89.6 percent interception rate. But the effort quickly drained its air defense resources. As swarms of drones overwhelmed the defense network, Ukraine intercepted only 30 of the 51 missiles, a defense rate of 58.9 percent. Of those 30 interceptions, 29 involved slower cruise missiles. Ukraine failed to stop most of the hypersonic and ballistic missiles. The destruction of power plants in the middle of winter halted heating systems. Residents in Kyiv told reporters in January that electricity came on for only six hours each day. People warmed their hands over gas burners and stayed awake through the night. Evening greetings in Kyiv no longer centered on "good night." Instead, people wished each other "a quiet night without air raid sirens." A brutal but simple equation now shapes the battlefield. Militaries cannot ignore low-cost drones that fly toward high-value targets. Defenders still consume at least one interceptor missile, whether they target a drone or a missile. Once attackers overwhelm defenses with sheer numbers, even advanced air defense systems become saturated. Cheap drones, costly defense Kim likely took note of that equation after sending troops to support Russia. North Korea gained battlefield experience in combined drone and artillery operations. Pyongyang also created a specialized drone unit and started to build a drone production system, according to a briefing that the National Intelligence Service gave lawmakers on Feb. 12. In actual combat, however, Kim cannot use the nuclear weapons that he spent years developing. Russia also treats nuclear weapons mainly as a deterrent and has not used them on the battlefield. Conventional military strength still determines the outcome of war. With nuclear weapons in the background, North Korea likely wants asymmetric capabilities that can force South Korean and U.S. air forces to focus on defense. That strategy would require large numbers of drones and interceptor missiles. North Korea studies Ukraine battlefield lessons The JoongAng Ilbo used AI to simulate a possible scenario in which North Korea attempts to recreate Russia's nationwide strikes against Ukraine on the Korean Peninsula. The simulation reflected battlefield data that the Ukrainian military released on drones and missiles, related research papers and North Korea's known weapons systems. Several current and former military officials and civilian experts also reviewed the scenario. In the scenario shared in a 196-second video, Shahed-type suicide drones — designed to crash into targets and ...