Economic Resilience Amid Uncertainty? The Iran Conflict, AI Disruption & Market Themes with Stephanie Roth

What do rising geopolitical tensions mean for growth, inflation, and the future of the U.S. economy?In this episode host David Stubbs speaks with Stephanie Roth, Chief Economist at Wolfe Research, about the potential economic implications of geopolitical tensions involving Iran. Their conversation explores how higher energy prices could affect U.S. growth and inflation, as well as the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook in a moderating inflation environment. Stephanie also discusses the potential impact of fiscal policy on different income groups, developments in private credit markets, the evolving role of artificial intelligence in driving productivity and investment, and ongoing challenges in the U.S. housing market.Disclaimer: This podcast is being provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation, and should not be considered tax, legal, or accounting advice. The information represents the current views and opinions of the speakers as of the date of this podcast, and there is no guarantee that any opinions will prove to be accurate, or any forecasts made will come to pass. No obligation is undertaken to update any information, data, or material contained herein. This communication is not recommending the purchase, sale or hold of any security.This presentation and the information contained herein may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, in any format without AlphaCore’s express prior written consent.Certain information contained herein has been obtained from published and non-published sources prepared by third parties. While such information is believed to be reliable, AlphaCore does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the information, which is based on matters as they exist as of the date of this podcast and not as of any future date. Before embarking on any investment program, you should carefully consider the risks and suitability of a strategy based on your own investment objectives and financial position.Timeline: 0:00 Introduction0:31 Iran War & Energy Shock2:59 Fed Reaction Function & Economy7:46 K-Shaped Economy & Consumer Impact9:21 Private Credit16:36 AI & Productivity21:44 AI CapEx & Investment Cycle28:17 Housing Market & Affordability34:20 12–18 Month US Macro Outlook35:54 Closing & Disclosures