Upside Capture

The gap between what the world needs and what governments can build is widening fast and private capital is moving in.Host David Stubbs is joined by Keith Derman, Head of Infrastructure Opportunities at Ares Management, to discuss why infrastructure may be the most consequential investment opportunity of the next decade. Three forces are hitting simultaneously: AI and data centers driving unprecedented electricity demand, a global energy transition reshaping power grids, and geopolitical shifts accelerating U.S. energy production and exports.They cover how most portfolios remain significantly under-allocated to an asset class that offers income, inflation protection, low correlation to public markets, and meaningful downside protection and why renewables, after years of market exuberance, may now offer the most attractive entry point in the sector.Disclaimer: This podcast is being provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation, and should not be considered tax, legal, or accounting advice. The information represents the current views and opinions of the speakers as of the date of this podcast, and there is no guarantee that any opinions will prove to be accurate, or any forecasts made will come to pass. No obligation is undertaken to update any information, data, or material contained herein. This communication is not recommending the purchase, sale or hold of any security.This presentation and the information contained herein may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, in any format without AlphaCore’s express prior written consent.Certain information contained herein has been obtained from published and non-published sources prepared by third parties. While such information is believed to be reliable, AlphaCore does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the information, which is based on matters as they exist as of the date of this podcast and not as of any future date. Before embarking on any investment program, you should carefully consider the risks and suitability of a strategy based on your own investment objectives and financial position.

How should investors think about private markets and private credit in today’s portfolio environment?In this episode of Upside Capture, host David Stubbs speaks with Philip Hasbrouck , co-head of Cliffwater’s asset management business, about the role of private markets in long-term portfolio construction and current conditions in private credit. Phil shares Cliffwater’s 10-year capital market assumptions across public equities, real estate, bonds, bank loans, private equity, and private credit, while emphasizing the importance of manager selection, patience, and long-term allocation decisions.The conversation explores how Cliffwater defines direct lending, including loans to sizable private companies with lower loan-to-value characteristics, as well as how evergreen fund structures manage liquidity through quarterly repurchase programs, repurchase limits, proration, loan payoffs, bank revolvers, and potential secondary sales. David and Phil also discuss current private credit conditions, including default levels, PIK usage, spread widening, the potential impact of AI across borrowers and infrastructure, and why future returns and risks may differ from recent experience.Disclaimer: This podcast is being provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation, and should not be considered tax, legal, or accounting advice. The information represents the current views and opinions of the speakers as of the date of this podcast, and there is no guarantee that any opinions will prove to be accurate, or any forecasts made will come to pass. No obligation is undertaken to update any information, data, or material contained herein. This communication is not recommending the purchase, sale or hold of any security.This presentation and the information contained herein may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, in any format without AlphaCore’s express prior written consent.Certain information contained herein has been obtained from published and non-published sources prepared by third parties. While such information is believed to be reliable, AlphaCore does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the information, which is based on matters as they exist as of the date of this podcast and not as of any future date. Before embarking on any investment program, you should carefully consider the risks and suitability of a strategy based on your own investment objectives and financial position.

What do rising geopolitical tensions mean for growth, inflation, and the future of the U.S. economy?In this episode host David Stubbs speaks with Stephanie Roth, Chief Economist at Wolfe Research, about the potential economic implications of geopolitical tensions involving Iran. Their conversation explores how higher energy prices could affect U.S. growth and inflation, as well as the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook in a moderating inflation environment. Stephanie also discusses the potential impact of fiscal policy on different income groups, developments in private credit markets, the evolving role of artificial intelligence in driving productivity and investment, and ongoing challenges in the U.S. housing market.Disclaimer: This podcast is being provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation, and should not be considered tax, legal, or accounting advice. The information represents the current views and opinions of the speakers as of the date of this podcast, and there is no guarantee that any opinions will prove to be accurate, or any forecasts made will come to pass. No obligation is undertaken to update any information, data, or material contained herein. This communication is not recommending the purchase, sale or hold of any security.This presentation and the information contained herein may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, in any format without AlphaCore’s express prior written consent.Certain information contained herein has been obtained from published and non-published sources prepared by third parties. While such information is believed to be reliable, AlphaCore does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the information, which is based on matters as they exist as of the date of this podcast and not as of any future date. Before embarking on any investment program, you should carefully consider the risks and suitability of a strategy based on your own investment objectives and financial position.Timeline: 0:00 Introduction0:31 Iran War & Energy Shock2:59 Fed Reaction Function & Economy7:46 K-Shaped Economy & Consumer Impact9:21 Private Credit16:36 AI & Productivity21:44 AI CapEx & Investment Cycle28:17 Housing Market & Affordability34:20 12–18 Month US Macro Outlook35:54 Closing & Disclosures

How are markets responding to geopolitical shocks and where are the risks and opportunities now?In this episode of Upside Capture, host David Stubbs speaks with Dan Ivascyn, Group CIO of PIMCO, about how investors are interpreting the market impact of the Iran-related energy shock alongside longer-term forces such as AI, private credit, and housing. Dan shares his perspective that markets have responded in a manner consistent with a supply-driven inflation shock—contributing to higher front-end yields and increased uncertainty around growth and earnings—while noting that de-escalation is a commonly discussed base case, with potential tail risks.The conversation explores PIMCO’s evolving portfolio positioning, including a shift from a short-end steepener to a more balanced yield curve with added exposure to longer maturities, alongside an emphasis on diversification, liquidity, and selectivity in credit. David and Dan also discuss how stock-bond correlations may shift in inflationary environments, how relative valuations across asset classes are being evaluated, and the ways AI may contribute to both productivity gains and disruption, particularly within credit markets, as well as developments in mortgage markets and areas of potential risk in lower-quality private credit and floating-rate lending.Disclaimer: This podcast is being provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation, and should not be considered tax, legal, or accounting advice. The information represents the current views and opinions of the speakers as of the date of this podcast, and there is no guarantee that any opinions will prove to be accurate, or any forecasts made will come to pass. No obligation is undertaken to update any information, data, or material contained herein. This communication is not recommending the purchase, sale or hold of any security.This presentation and the information contained herein may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, in any format without AlphaCore’s express prior written consent.Certain information contained herein has been obtained from published and non-published sources prepared by third parties. While such information is believed to be reliable, AlphaCore does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the information, which is based on matters as they exist as of the date of this podcast and not as of any future date. Before embarking on any investment program, you should carefully consider the risks and suitability of a strategy based on your own investment objectives and financial position.PIMCO: https://www.pimco.com/us/en Timestamps:0:00 – Introduction & Disclaimer0:52 – Dan Iverson Introduction & Iran War Impact on Markets2:38 – Bond Yields & Curve Positioning3:07 – Targeting the Belly of the Curve & Duration Strategy9:05 – Global Growth Outlook & Macro Impact of Conflict9:42 – Lowering Growth Forecasts / Recession Risks13:41 – Geopolitical Risk, Fat Tails & Portfolio Resilience17:12 – The Case for Fixed Income & 60/40 Correlation Breakdown20:49 – AI's Two-Sided Impact: Productivity vs. Disruption21:31 – How Quickly AI Disruption Has Grabbed Markets28:08 – Private Credit Overview41:24 – Is AI CapEx at Risk from the Energy Shock?45:24 – Mortgages: Agency MBS & Spread Tightening49:01 – AI Job Disruption & Mortgage Market Resilience48:57 – Wrap-Up & Closing Remarks

Are U.S. equities overvalued, or are opportunities hiding in plain sight?In this episode of Upside Capture, host David Stubbs speaks with Tom Cole, co-founder of Distillate Capital, about how investors are assessing today’s market valuations. Tom shares his perspective on why free cash flow has gained attention as a measure of value, particularly as the economy has become increasingly shaped by intangible investments.The conversation explores the historical context of value investing, comparisons to the dot-com era, and several areas of the market currently drawing investor interest, including small-cap and international equities. David and Tom also discuss concentrated market leadership and approaches such as equal-weight indexing as examples of how market participants are thinking about diversification and portfolio construction in today’s market environment.Disclaimer: This presentation and the information contained herein may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, in any format without AlphaCore’s express prior written consent. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from published and non-published sources prepared by third parties. While such information is believed to be reliable, AlphaCore does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the information, which is based on matters as they exist as of the date of this podcast and not as of any future date. Before embarking on any investment program, you should carefully consider the risks and suitability of a strategy based on your own investment objectives and financial position.Disclaimer: This podcast is being provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation, and should not be considered tax, legal, or accounting advice. The information represents the current views and opinions of the speakers as of the date of this podcast, and there is no guarantee that any opinions will prove to be accurate, or any forecasts made will come to pass. No obligation is undertaken to update any information, data, or material contained herein. This communication is not recommending the purchase, sale or hold of any security.This presentation and the information contained herein may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, in any format without AlphaCore’s express prior written consent. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from published and non-published sources prepared by third parties. While such information is believed to be reliable, AlphaCore does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the information, which is based on matters as they exist as of the date of this podcast and not as of any future date. Before embarking on any investment program, you should carefully consider the risks and suitability of a strategy based on your own investment objectives and financial position.Timestamps:0:00 – Intro & Guest Introduction (Tom Cole, Distillate Capital)0:31 – Disclaimer & Podcast Overview0:50 – Welcome Tom / Setting the Stage1:21 – US Equity Return Expectations & Valuations1:39 – Role of Free Cash Flow in Returns3:49 – Why Free Cash Flow vs. Price-to-Book / Price-to-Earnings4:57 – History of Value Investing (1960–1990)6:05 – Economy Shift: Tangible to Intangible Assets8:45 – Free Cash Flow as the New Value Measure11:03 – Where to Find Opportunity in Today's Market11:21 – Sector Opportunities: Healthcare, Industrials15:41 – International Markets & Small Caps18:20 – Today's Market vs. the Dot-Com Era18:43 – AI Hype & Valuation Similarities to 200019:44 – Comparing Free Cash Flow Yields: Now vs. 200021:02 – What Happened 2 Years After the Dot-Com Peak22:03 – Price vs. Fundamentals: The Eternal Lesson22:57 – Valuation Always Matters in the Long Run23:27 – Wrap-Up & Where to Follow Tom / Distillate Capital

Upside Capture is on a mission to make institutional investment strategy accessible to everyone — not theories, not predictions. Just structure.Markets generate endless commentary. We cut through it. Because economies evolve and cycles repeat across decades. Capital moves in patterns that reward patience and discipline.Each episode features perspectives from people who work inside capital markets every day — discussing the most important trends in macroeconomics and investing today.