Elon Musk Believes AI Will Exceed Human Intelligence In Five Years. Here's Why I Disagree.

The word “intelligence” is a loaded word. Here’s what Elon Musk said to the Economist last week: “I think AI may exceed the sum of human intelligence in around five years. There really won’t be anything that AI can’t do better than humans, apart from being human, perhaps.” Well “being human” is what intelligence is all about. So I read up on how Aristotle, Descartes, Kant, James, and many of the eastern philosophers define the term. And what you find is that deep thinkers define intelligence far beyond the ability to recall and use facts, but focus heavily on judgement, problem solving, and dealing with uncertainties in life. So after thinking about this for a few years, I decided to posit my ideas, and also reflect on the intelligence of trees, as described in “The Hidden Life of Trees.” What I came up with is four parts to this puzzling idea: horsepower, information, judgement, and wisdom. And as you’ll hear, we all have various levels of intelligence in each area, and AI may lack quite a bit. As we all grapple with the exaggerated claims from AI engineers and the real use of these tools, I hope this discussion gives you some perspective, and also calms your fears that AI is going to steal your job. Our new book, Superpowered, is coming out in November, so sign up for early preview – it’s all about how AI Superpowers us all, in our work, careers, businesses, and life. Additional Information The Hidden Life of Trees: What They Feel, How They Communicate—Discoveries from A Secret World The full-length interview with Elon Musk | The Economist Are Frontier Models Becoming A Commodity? Galileo: The AI Superintelligence for HR Chapters (00:00:00) - What is Intelligence?(00:10:02) - Does an AI Have Enough Intelligence to Plan?