EMD013 - Strategic Positioning

Energy Markets Daily's Monday Strategic Positioning - September 15, 2025. Comprehensive briefing for energy executives and institutional capital. Opening snapshot: WTI $63.14/bbl (+0.93% daily), Brent $67.36/bbl (+0.66%), Henry Hub $2.974/MMBtu. Weekend developments: Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure intensified, stalled peace negotiations maintaining geopolitical risk premium vs global supply surplus concerns. Baker Hughes milestone: US total rigs 539 (+2, third consecutive weekly increase), oil rigs 416 (+2), gas rigs 118 (unchanged), down 51 YoY. EIA September 10: Crude build +3.9M barrels to 424.6M vs -1M expected, gasoline +1.5M, distillates +4.7M indicating weaker demand. OPEC+ positioning: September 7 meeting increased October output 137,000 bpd, unwinding 1.65M bpd voluntary cuts, next meeting October 5. Natural gas outlook: EIA Q3 2025 $3.00/MMBtu, Q4 $3.70, 2026 $4.30. Major M&A: Diversified Energy/Canvas Energy $550M, Strathcona/MEG Energy revised $30.86/share, MOL/Port of Nigg joint acquisition. Technical levels: WTI support $62.26-$63.14 resistance $64.00, Brent $66.56-$67.36 testing $67.50, natural gas testing $2.90 support. Week ahead: Tuesday CPI, Wednesday China industrial production, Thursday EIA report, Friday rig count. Market caught between geopolitical support and fundamental oversupply concerns.