EMD020 - Macro Context

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily, an AI-powered podcast by Daily Dominance. Wednesday, September 24, 2025 — Macro Context. Under 4 minutes. Opening snapshot (quick): WTI ~$62 testing $61.92. Brent ~$66.1. Henry Hub ~$2.80/MMBtu (range low). USO ~$73.45. UNG ~$12.15. UST 10Y ~4.12%–4.15%. Macro: Fed -25 bps digested; softer dollar mildly supportive, but supply still in control. Flash S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.8 (expanding, softer); ISM sub-50. U.S. power demand record trajectory 2025–26; solar leads; gas-fired power ~-3% y/y in 2025. Supply overhang: OPEC+ unwind: Sep +547 kb/d, Oct +137 kb/d. Iraq KRG export risk ~+230 kb/d. Kuwait capacity near decade high ~3.2 mb/d. EIA balance: inventory builds >2 mb/d through Q1 ’26. Demand lens: IEA 2025 demand +740 kb/d vs OPEC +1.3 mb/d (divergence). China: crude import growth decelerating; LNG imports -19% YTD; ~95% of incremental power demand met by renewables; stockpiling vs real burn. Gas focus: Henry Hub testing ~$2.80. Storage models: +70–90 Bcf for Thursday. Lower 48 output ~107 Bcf/d. Seasonal tailwind from Nov roll. Rebound needs $2.80 hold then $3.00 reclaim; <~$2.87 = bearish continuation. Key levels (24–48h): - WTI: $61.92 support; below opens $58–$59. Res: $63.80 / $65.00. - Brent: $66.00 then $65.50 supports; res: ~$67.40. - Henry Hub: $2.80 support; res: $2.97 / $3.02 / $3.05. - ETFs: USO basing; UNG needs HH $3.00. Tape movers: Dangote resumes gantry self-collection (Nigeria). ExxonMobil Singapore residue upgrade online (higher-value outputs). Chord Energy $550M Williston acquisition. EU sanction mechanics on Russian energy; ongoing strikes sustain risk premium. Positioning: Crude—respect downside; fade into resistance unless $61.92 holds decisively. Gas—tactically constructive if $2.80 holds and EIA print sub-consensus. Rates/dollar supportive at the margin but secondary to supply. Watchlist (24h): API→EIA setup, Lower 48 output drift, KRG export headlines, ECB/EU energy commentary. Energy capital inquiries: [email protected] — subject: Energy Capital. This is market analysis, not investment advice.