EMD058 - Technicals: Breakdown in Progress

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily, brought to you by DailyDominanceNow.com. Tuesday, November 18, 2025 — Technicals. Today, we analyze the technical setup across WTI crude, Brent crude, and natural gas. The charts are telling a clear story. **WTI Crude - Bearish Breakdown** WTI crude dropped to $59.40 per barrel today. This is a breakdown. **Support and Resistance:** Support: $58.00, then $56.14 (61.8% Fibonacci extension). Below that, $54.59 and $52.09 are in play. Resistance: $60.82 (50-day moving average), $61.52 (200-day moving average), and $62.50. **Moving Averages:** The 100-day SMA is below the 200-day SMA. This confirms bearish momentum. The gap is widening. Price is trading below both dynamic inflection points. WTI tested the 50-day moving average multiple times but failed to break and hold above it. The 200-day moving average sits overhead at $61.52. **RSI and MACD:** RSI remains below the midpoint, signaling sellers are in control. MACD is flashing sell signals. Technical indicators across the board show "Strong Sell." **The Setup:** WTI is trading within a descending trend line since mid-2025. A sustained break below $58 opens the door to $56.14, then $54.59. The path of least resistance is down. **Brent Crude - Descending Channel** Brent crude fell to $63.74 per barrel. **Support and Resistance:** Support: $63.40, $62.77, $60.55, and $60.00 (psychological level). Resistance: $64.15, $65-$66 zone, and $66.95. **Technical Picture:** Brent is moving within a declining trend and descending channel. Moving averages indicate a short-term bearish trend. Prices have broken below signal lines, confirming downward pressure. A break below $60.55 would confirm further declines toward $58.45, then $52.45. A breakout above $66.95 would invalidate the downward trend. **Natural Gas - Overbought But Supported** Natural gas is trading at $4.37 per MMBtu, up 0.10% today. **RSI and MACD:** RSI is at 37.27, signaling a "Sell." Below 30 is oversold; above 70 is overbought. MACD is at -0.038, also signaling "Sell." **The Bullish Case:** Winter demand is strong. Cold weather forecasts for December support prices. LNG exports are surging to record levels, driven by European demand. Natural gas maintains a higher-lows pattern. A breakout above $3.70 earlier this month established a long-term reversal. **The Bearish Case:** U.S. production is at record levels. Storage is 4% above the five-year average. Technical indicators show "Strong Sell." **Key Levels:** Support: $3.95. A break below shifts the outlook bearish. Resistance: $4.70-$4.80. A breakout targets $5.00. **The Levels That Matter** WTI crude: Support at $58. Resistance at $60.82 (50-day MA). Brent crude: Support at $60. Resistance at $65. Natural gas: Support at $3.95. Resistance at $4.70. **Final Word** The technicals confirm what the fundamentals are saying: crude is breaking down. WTI below $58 opens $56, then $54. Natural gas is holding structural support despite overbought signals. Winter demand and LNG exports are the backstop. The divergence trade remains intact. For inquiries: [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. We'll see you Wednesday for Macro Context.