EMD061 - Weekly Recap: The Breakdown Accelerates

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily, brought to you by DailyDominanceNow.com. Friday, November 21, 2025 — Weekly Recap. This week, crude oil broke down. Natural gas broke out. The decoupling thesis is playing out in real time. Let's recap the week. **Crude Oil - The $58 Breakdown** WTI crude oil closed Friday at $58.34 per barrel, down 1.12% on the day and testing critical support at $58. Brent crude closed at $62.64 per barrel, down 1.17%. The Week's Action: WTI broke below $60 and held there. The 50-day moving average at $60.82 is now resistance. The path of least resistance is down. What Drove It: The IEA projects a crude oil oversupply of more than 4 million barrels per day in 2026. That's the headline driving sentiment. OPEC+ is slowly unwinding production cuts, adding 137,000 barrels per day in November. But the G8 members only delivered 12% of the agreed quota increase. Some can't raise production due to capacity constraints. Others are compensating for prior overproduction. The geopolitical risk premium is gone. Reports of renewed U.S. efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war weighed on prices all week. The EIA Data: Thursday's inventory report showed a surprise 3.4 million barrel draw in crude stocks. Cushing inventories dropped by 698,000 barrels. But the market didn't care. Gasoline and distillate builds confirmed weak demand. Year-Over-Year: WTI is down 18.11% compared to last year. Brent is down 16.67%. **Natural Gas - The Breakout** Natural gas closed Friday at $4.58 per MMBtu, up 2.27% on the day. The Month's Performance: Natural gas is up 32.62% over the past month and up 39.20% year-over-year. What's Driving It: LNG exports. U.S. feedgas volume in November averaged 17.9 Bcf per day, up from October's record. Data center demand. Electricity demand is projected to grow 4.7% over the next five years, driven by AI infrastructure. Winter positioning. Despite warmer-than-normal forecasts and ample storage, the market is pricing in structural demand. The Storage Data: Natural gas storage withdrew 12 Bcf for the week ending November 14th. Total working gas stands at 3,960 Bcf, 172 Bcf above the five-year average. The withdrawal was smaller than expected, but the market held support. **The Decoupling in Action** WTI crude is collapsing toward $58 while Henry Hub natural gas is holding $4.58. Oil is tethered to weak global GDP growth. Natural gas is decoupling, driven by electrification and LNG exports. This is the trade. **Catalyst Watch - Week Ahead** Monday: Markets closed for Thanksgiving week positioning. Wednesday: U.S. crude oil inventory data. Thursday: Thanksgiving. U.S. markets closed. December 1st: OPEC+ meeting. The reality check. **Final Word** This week confirmed the thesis. Crude fundamentals are bearish. Natural gas fundamentals are structurally supported. WTI below $58 opens the door to $56, then $54. Natural gas above $4.50 targets $5.00. Trade the decoupling. For inquiries: [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. We'll see you Monday.