EMD065 - EIA Inventory Reports: The Build Continues

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Thursday, November 27, 2025 — EIA Inventory Reports. U.S. crude inventories rose 2.8 million barrels. WTI fell to $58.39. Natural gas rallied to $4.62. Let's break down the data. **Crude Oil Inventories - The Build** The EIA reported U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.8 million barrels for the week ending November 21st, reaching 426.9 million barrels. The market expected a draw. We got a build. Crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma decreased by 68,000 barrels. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.4 million barrels per day, up 211,000 barrels per day from the previous week. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.4 million barrels per day, up 486,000 barrels per day from the previous week. U.S. crude exports were 3.6 million barrels per day, down 560,000 barrels per day from the prior week. Imports are rising. Exports are falling. Inventories are building. This is not the setup for higher prices. **Gasoline and Distillate Inventories** Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 2.5 million barrels. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.4 million barrels per day, down 0.1% from the same period last year. Demand is flat to slightly negative year-over-year. **The Price Reaction** WTI crude fell to $58.39 per barrel on November 27th, down 0.45% on the day. Natural gas rallied to $4.62 per MMBtu, up 1.28% on the day. Natural gas is up 72.20% year-over-year. This is the decoupling thesis in action. **The Geopolitical Backdrop** U.S. sanctions targeting Russian oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil create extraordinary production uncertainty affecting approximately 6.3 to 6.5 million barrels per day. This is the wildcard. If sanctions are lifted, Russian barrels flood the market. If sanctions remain, supply tightens. The market is pricing in the former. **OPEC+ - The December 1st Meeting** OPEC+ is preparing to approve a small increase in oil production in December, approximately 137,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ has been raising production since April amid plans to regain market share. But the market doesn't need more supply. It needs less. The December 1st meeting is the reality check. **What It Means** The EIA inventory build confirms the bearish crude oil thesis. Supply is growing faster than demand. Inventories are building. Prices are falling. Natural gas is rallying on structural demand. LNG exports. Data center demand. Electrification. WTI at $58.39 is testing support. A break below $58 opens the door to $56. Natural gas at $4.62 is consolidating. Target $5.00. **Catalyst Watch** Sunday, December 1st: OPEC+ meeting. The reality check. **Final Word** The inventory build is the crude oil problem. Rising imports. Falling exports. Building inventories. Natural gas is decoupling on structural demand. Trade the data. For inquiries or introductions to energy capital sources: [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. We'll see you Friday for the Weekly Recap.