EMD069 - Macro Context: Central Banks, China, Inflation

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Wednesday, December 3, 2025 — Macro Context. The big picture driving energy: Central banks, China slowdown, inflation. **FED: RATE CUT ODDS HIGH** 87% odds for December Fed rate cut. FOMC Dec 9-10. Goldman sees cuts Dec, Mar, Jun 2026. Lower rates boost economic activity and energy demand. Core PCE at 2.91%. **ECB: ON HOLD** Rates unchanged Oct 2025. Inflation 2.0% target, Eurozone GDP 0.9%. Energy prices dragged forecasts lower. **CHINA: SLOWING DEMAND** GDP: BBVA 5%, UBS 4.0%, Rhodium 3-4.5% with stimulus. Oil demand sluggish. LNG imports down, domestic gas up. Electricity +5-6.5%, renewables absorbing growth. **INFLATION HEADWINDS** US CPI 3.0% Sep, energy +1.5% gasoline. Global inflation 4.5% 2025. Tariffs push core higher H2 2025. **ENERGY IMPLICATIONS** Fed easing supports demand, China weakness caps oil. OPEC+ fights oversupply. Natural gas firm: LNG, AI power demand. **FINAL WORD** Macro divergence: US easing, Europe steady, China slowing. Energy trades data: Crude bearish, nat gas bullish. Inquiries: [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. Thursday: EIA Inventories. This is Energy Markets Daily.