EMD071 - Weekly Recap: The Decoupling

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Friday, December 5, 2025 — Weekly Recap. Let's close out the week. **CRUDE OIL - THE WEEK** WTI is trading at $59.70, up nearly 2% for the week. Brent at $63.11. Both benchmarks posted weekly gains despite bearish EIA data showing inventory builds. What drove the rally? Geopolitics. Ukraine struck the Druzhba pipeline. Stalled US-Russia peace talks. And escalating US-Venezuela tensions. But oversupply concerns capped gains. Saudi Arabia lowered its January Arab Light price for Asia to its lowest level in five years. The IEA expects a large oversupply in early 2026. OPEC+ held production steady for Q1 2026. Eight countries maintaining output through March. The bearish case remains intact. Target: WTI $56, Brent $60. **NATURAL GAS - THE WEEK** Natural gas broke $5.00, hitting $5.08 on Friday. Up 16.57% over the past month. Up 65% year-over-year. The January NYMEX contract rose 44 cents week-over-week to $4.995. The driver? Cold weather. Northeast spot prices surged. Algonquin Citygate serving Boston hit $25.00 per MMBtu. LNG exports remain at record highs. AI data center demand emerging. The structural bull case is playing out. Target: $5.50 by Q1 2026. **THE DECOUPLING** Crude oil: Oversupplied. Bearish. Natural gas: Structurally tight. Bullish. This is the decoupling thesis in real time. **CATALYST WATCH - NEXT WEEK** Monday: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. Wednesday: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook. December 9-10: FOMC meeting. 87% odds of a rate cut. **FINAL WORD** Crude rallied on geopolitics. But oversupply wins. Natural gas broke $5.00. The structural story is real. Trade the decoupling. For inquiries: [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Have a great weekend. We'll see you Monday.