EMD072 - Strategic Positioning: Fed Week

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Monday, December 8, 2025 — Strategic Positioning. New week, big catalysts ahead. Let's set the stage. **CRUDE OIL** WTI at $60.23, up 0.25%. Brent at $63.91, up 0.25%. Both near two-week highs. Geopolitics driving: Ukraine war, potential US-Venezuela intervention, Russian sanctions. But oversupply caps gains. OPEC November output at 28.40 million bpd. OPEC+ paused output hikes through Q1 2026. OPEC monthly report due December 11. Bearish case intact. Target: WTI $56, Brent $60. **NATURAL GAS** $5.12, down 3.24% on profit-taking. But up 18% past month, 61% year-over-year. Trading Economics sees $5.37 by quarter end, $6.59 in 12 months. Morgan Stanley reiterates $5 target for 2026. LNG exports climbing from 13 to 17 Bcf/d by year end. Structural bull case intact. Target: $5.50 Q1 2026. **FED WATCH** FOMC meets tomorrow Dec 9-10. 87% odds of 25bp rate cut. Rate cuts stimulate growth and energy demand. But inflation concerns remain. **THE WEEK AHEAD** Tuesday-Wednesday: FOMC decision. Wednesday: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook. Thursday: OPEC Monthly Report. Friday: Weekly recap. **THE DECOUPLING** Crude oversupplied, bearish. Natural gas structurally tight, bullish. Trade the decoupling. For inquiries: [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Tuesday: Fed Decision Day.