EMD073 - Fed Decision Day

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Tuesday, December 9, 2025 — Fed Decision Day. The main event is here. FOMC concludes today. **THE FED** 80-90% odds of a 25bp rate cut. Fed funds rate expected to drop from 3.75%-4% to 3.50%-3.75%. Watch Chair Powell's press conference and dot plot for 2026 guidance. **CRUDE OIL** WTI at $58.79. Brent at $62.88. Prices pulled back from two-week highs. Rising global inventories putting downward pressure. Analysts expect WTI to trade at $60.51 by quarter end, $66.50 in 12 months. Brent forecast to fall to $54 in Q1 2026. Bearish case intact. Target: WTI $56, Brent $60. **NATURAL GAS** Plunged 7% to $4.90/MMBtu on milder weather forecasts and high production. January NYMEX at $4.995. Pullback after three-year highs. The structural bull case remains: LNG exports climbing, winter demand ahead. Target: $5.50 Q1 2026. **FED AND ENERGY** Lower rates stimulate economic growth and energy demand. Rate cuts put 2-5% upward pressure on oil prices over 3 months. Oil and gas companies less exposed to rate moves than renewables. **WHAT TO WATCH** Powell's tone - dovish boosts energy, hawkish caps gains. Tomorrow: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook. Thursday: OPEC Monthly Report. **FINAL WORD** The Fed decides today. Energy waits. Trade the data. Not the headlines. For inquiries: [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Wednesday: EIA Outlook.