EMD074 - EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook: Decoupling Confirmed

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Wednesday, December 10, 2025 — EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook. The EIA just dropped its December STEO. Here's what you need to know. **PRICES TODAY** WTI at $58.37. Brent at $62.03. Both basically flat as markets digest the Fed and EIA. Natural gas at $4.56, down 0.30% on the day but still up 35% year-over-year. **CRUDE OIL: EIA'S OUTLOOK** EIA raised its 2025 US crude production forecast by 0.1% to 13.61 million barrels per day. But for 2026, EIA cut the outlook by 0.3% to 13.53 million barrels per day — the first projected annual decline since 2020. Global inventories are expected to keep rising through 2026. Brent is forecast to average about $55 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026 and hold near that level for the rest of the year. That keeps the bearish case intact. Your trading targets remain: WTI $56, Brent $60. **NATURAL GAS: EIA'S OUTLOOK** Natural gas sits at $4.56, but the structural story is bigger than the daily move. EIA raised its winter Henry Hub price forecast by more than 40 cents. Henry Hub is now expected to average about $4.30 per MMBtu this winter. Dry gas production rises from 103.2 Bcf per day in 2024 to 107.7 Bcf per day in 2025 and 109.1 Bcf per day in 2026. LNG exports keep climbing: 11.9 Bcf per day in 2024, 14.9 Bcf per day in 2025, and 16.3 Bcf per day in 2026. In early December, LNG export volumes are running near 19 Bcf per day — close to all-time peaks. EIA sees Henry Hub averaging about $4.00 in 2026. **WHAT IT MEANS** The EIA is effectively confirming your decoupling thesis. Crude oil faces rising inventories and a Brent path anchored near $55. Natural gas gets higher winter pricing, record production that still gets absorbed, and surging LNG demand. Crude remains a bearish, oversupplied market. Natural gas remains a structurally tight, globally-linked growth market. **FINAL WORD** EIA just gave you the roadmap. Oil: fade the rallies. Gas: buy the dips. Trade the decoupling. Trade the data. Not the headlines. For inquiries: [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Tomorrow: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.