EMD076 - Weekly Recap: Thesis Validated

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Friday, December 12, 2025 — Weekly Recap. Let's close out the week. **THE BIG STORY** The Fed cut rates 25bp to 3.50%-3.75%. But Rystad says it won't move oil — fundamentals dominate. Supply growth and surplus outweigh monetary policy. **CRUDE OIL** WTI fell 2% to $57.30, near seven-week lows. Brent at $61.10. WTI down 1.27% monthly, down 17.52% year-over-year. Brent down 1.80% monthly, down 16.12% YoY. IEA still projects record surplus despite slight reduction. OPEC cut demand growth to 1.45M bpd — fifth straight downward revision. EIA projects first US production decline since 2020. Bearish thesis validated. Target: WTI $56, Brent $60. **NATURAL GAS** Volatile week. Fell 8% to $4.23 on Thursday on milder weather and record production at 109.7 Bcf/d. January NYMEX at $4.595. But EIA still sees winter average at $4.30. LNG exports at record highs. Structural bull case intact despite short-term pullback. Target: $5.50 Q1 2026. **THIS WEEK'S CATALYSTS** Fed cut rates. EIA STEO confirmed oversupply. OPEC cut demand forecasts. All three validate the decoupling. **NEXT WEEK** Monday strategic positioning. Watch for any geopolitical developments. **FINAL WORD** Crude sinks on oversupply. Gas pulls back but structure holds. Trade the decoupling. Trade the data. Not the headlines. For inquiries: [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Have a great weekend. We'll see you Monday.