EMD077 - Strategic Positioning: New Week, Same Thesis

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Monday, December 15, 2025 — Strategic Positioning. New week. Let's set the stage. **CRUDE OIL** WTI at $57.75, up 0.54%. Brent at $61.47, up 0.58%. Modest bounce on geopolitics — US pressure on Venezuela, Ukraine drone strikes on Russian oil depots. But the fundamentals haven't changed. WTI down 3.53% monthly, down 17.84% year-over-year. Brent down 4.25% monthly, down 16.83% YoY. Trading Economics sees WTI at $57.73 end of quarter, $63.53 in 12 months. EIA expects Brent to average $55 in 2026 as inventories keep rising. The bearish case remains. Target: WTI $56, Brent $60. **NATURAL GAS** $4.21, up 2.24% on the day. Bouncing after last week's selloff. EIA sees winter average at $4.30, full year 2026 at $4.00. Trading Economics sees $4.16 end of quarter, $5.12 in 12 months. Cold December driving space heating demand. LNG feedgas demand rising. The structural bull case holds. Target: $5.50 Q1 2026. **THE MACRO PICTURE** Metals surging on electrification and AI infrastructure demand. Energy still needs evidence of tightening balances. Global LNG and European gas flows sustain price spike potential during cold, low-wind periods. **THE DECOUPLING** Crude oversupplied, bearish. Natural gas structurally tight, bullish. The thesis continues. **THE WEEK AHEAD** Watch for any geopolitical developments. Ukraine, Venezuela, Russia remain wildcards. **FINAL WORD** Geopolitics gave crude a bounce. Don't chase it. The fundamentals are clear. Crude bearish. Gas bullish. Trade the decoupling. Now here's the deal — if you're sitting on an energy project, infrastructure play, or any deal that needs capital, we can help. We connect qualified opportunities with institutional and family office capital through our global network. Reach out: [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Tuesday we dig into the technicals.