EMD078 - Technicals: Target Zone Hit

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Tuesday, December 16, 2025 — Technicals. Let's read the charts. **CRUDE OIL** WTI crashed to $56.40, lowest since early 2021. Brent at $60.32, down 0.40%. **WHAT HAPPENED** Russia-Ukraine peace talks raised hopes for eased sanctions. China disappointed with slowing industrial output and retail sales. Demand concerns from the world's largest importer. **WTI TECHNICALS** Price entered long-term support zone between $55 and $60. RSI at 30 — oversold territory. Strong bearish pressure. A breakdown below $55 could trigger a sharp decline. However, oversold conditions could spark a technical bounce to $58. Broader outlook stays bearish as long as price stays below $62. **BRENT TECHNICALS** Trading beneath 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages. RSI neutral at 47.7. ADX at 11.8 showing weak trend. Our bearish targets — WTI $56, Brent $60 — are now in play. **NATURAL GAS** Crashed to $3.91, down 2.64%. January NYMEX settled at $4.012. Down 10.43% over the past month. **NAT GAS TECHNICALS** RSI at 29.36 — oversold. MACD says sell. ADX says sell. Investing.com gives a strong sell signal. Front-month futures in oversold territory for second straight day — last seen in August. **WHAT'S DRIVING IT** Warmer weather forecasts ahead of Christmas. Record production at 109.7 Bcf/d. Storage above normal despite 177 Bcf withdrawal. **BUT:** LNG exports hit record 10.9 million metric tonnes in November. 70% went to Europe. EIA still sees winter average at $4.30. Structural bull case intact but short-term pain. **THE BOTTOM LINE** Crude hit our target zone. Watch $55 support. Gas oversold — could bounce. Decoupling thesis playing out. **FINAL WORD** If you have an energy project or deal that needs capital, we connect qualified opportunities with institutional and family office capital through our global network. Reach out: [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Wednesday: Macro Context.