EMD079 - Macro Context: Targets Hit, Now Watch $55

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Wednesday, December 17, 2025 — Macro Context. Let's zoom out. **CRUDE OIL** WTI at $56.09, Brent at $59.57. Both rebounding slightly from yesterday's lows. WTI touched $55.75 overnight — within striking distance of the critical $55 support. Brent broke below $60 briefly. Our targets were WTI $56, Brent $60. We're there. **THE MACRO PICTURE** The Fed cut 25bp last week to 3.50%-3.75%. Lower rates generally support energy — cheaper capital for drilling, pipelines, renewables. But committee is divided. Inflation still elevated. Job growth slowing. Fed says future policy not on a preset course — data dependent. **TODAY'S CATALYST** EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 AM ET. Last week showed crude inventories down 1.8 million barrels to 425.7 million — 4% below five-year average. Gasoline inventories up 6.4 million barrels. Distillates up 2.5 million. Watch today's numbers for direction. **NATURAL GAS** $3.96, up 1.82%. Bouncing off oversold conditions. EIA still sees winter average at $4.30. But Enverus now projects $3.80 through end of winter, softening to $3.60 in summer 2026. Trading Economics sees $4.16 end of quarter. Mixed signals. The structural bull case faces short-term headwinds from warm weather and record production. But LNG exports remain at record highs. **THE BOTTOM LINE** Crude hit our targets. Now we watch $55 support on WTI. A break below opens the door to sharper declines. Gas bouncing but needs cold weather to sustain. The decoupling thesis plays out — crude oversupplied, gas structurally supported by LNG demand. **FINAL WORD** If you have an energy project or deal that needs capital, we connect qualified opportunities with institutional and family office capital through our global network. Reach out: [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Thursday: EIA Inventory Analysis.