EMD080 - EIA Inventory Report: Trading at Targets

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Thursday, December 18, 2025 — EIA Inventory Report. The EIA just released its weekly petroleum status report. Here's what you need to know. **CRUDE OIL PRICES** WTI at $55.28, down sharply. Brent at $59.73, up 1.38% on the day but still under pressure. We are now trading at our targets. **CRUDE INVENTORIES** U.S. commercial crude inventories decreased by 1.3 million barrels to 424.4 million. That's 4% below the five-year average. Crude draws continue but not enough to reverse the bearish trend. **PRODUCT BUILDS** Gasoline inventories up 4.8 million barrels — big build. Distillates up 1.7 million barrels, 6% below five-year average. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased 2.1 million barrels. **REFINERY ACTIVITY** Inputs averaged 17 million barrels per day, up 129,000 from prior week. Refineries running at 94.8% capacity. Gasoline production up to 9.6 million bpd. Distillate production down 228,000 bpd to 5.2 million. **IMPORTS** Crude imports averaged 6.5 million bpd, down 64,000 from prior week. **THE PICTURE** Crude draws but product builds. Refineries running hot but demand soft. EIA projects Brent falling to $55 average in Q1 2026. The bearish thesis holds. **NATURAL GAS** Trading just under $4.00 at $3.97. EIA storage report out today — expecting about 168 Bcf withdrawal for week ending December 12. Storage at 3,746 Bcf as of December 5, 103 Bcf above five-year average. EIA still sees winter average $4.30, full year 2026 at $4.01. LNG exports remain supportive. Short-term volatility but structural case intact. **THE BOTTOM LINE** Crude inventories drawing but not fast enough. Product builds signal soft demand. WTI at $55.28 — our target zone. Watch for any break below $55. Natural gas volatile but LNG demand and storage draws provide support. **FINAL WORD** If you have an energy project or deal that needs capital, we connect qualified opportunities with institutional and family office capital through our global network. Reach out: [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Friday: Weekly Recap.