EMD081 - Weekly Recap: Thesis Fully Validated

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Friday, December 19, 2025 — Weekly Recap. Let's close out the week. **THE BIG PICTURE** This was the week our thesis was fully validated. WTI hit $55.28 on Thursday. Brent broke below $60 to $59.73. We called WTI $56, Brent $60. We're there. **CRUDE OIL WEEKLY PERFORMANCE** WTI down 5.41% for the month, down 19.22% year-over-year. Brent down 5.52% monthly, down 17.66% YoY. Both recovering slightly today — WTI above $56, Brent at $60.01 — but the trend is clear. **THIS WEEK'S CATALYSTS** Fed rate cut to 3.50%-3.75% last week did nothing for crude — fundamentals dominate. OPEC revised Q3 from deficit to 500,000 bpd surplus. EIA inventory showed crude draws but big gasoline builds of 4.8 million barrels — soft demand. Russia-Ukraine peace talks and weak China data added pressure. **NATURAL GAS** Volatile week. Fell to $3.91 Thursday, down 2.78%. EIA reported 167 Bcf withdrawal. Storage at 3,579 Bcf — surplus to five-year average narrowed to just 32 Bcf. But warm weather ahead of Christmas capping upside. LNG exports at record 18.6 Bcf/d. EIA still sees winter average $4.30. Structural bull case intact but short-term headwinds remain. **LOOKING AHEAD** We're now in holiday trading — expect thin volumes. Watch $55 support on WTI. A break below opens the door to sharper declines. Natural gas needs cold weather to sustain any rally. **UPDATED TARGETS** Crude — our WTI $56, Brent $60 targets hit. Now watching for continuation toward $55 WTI, $58 Brent. Natural gas — maintaining $5.50 Q1 2026 target but acknowledging short-term volatility. **FINAL WORD** The decoupling thesis is now documented and confirmed. Crude bearish on oversupply. Gas supported by LNG demand. If you have an energy project or deal that needs capital, we connect qualified opportunities with institutional and family office capital through our global network. Reach out: [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Have a great weekend. We'll see you Monday.