EMD082 - Strategic Positioning: Holiday Week

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Monday, December 22, 2025 — Strategic Positioning. Holiday week. Let's set the stage. **CRUDE OIL** WTI at $57.08, up slightly. Brent at $61.03. Both bouncing off last week's lows but the trend remains bearish. Geopolitical tensions providing short-term support — US intercepted a Venezuelan tanker, Russia-Ukraine conflict continues. But fundamentals haven't changed. **THE OVERSUPPLY PICTURE** IEA projects significant market surplus in 2026. EIA forecasts Brent averaging $55 in Q1 2026, WTI around $51 for full year 2026. OPEC+ unwinding production cuts. Non-OPEC supply from US, Brazil, Canada keeps growing. Global oil stocks remain high. Our thesis holds. **HOLIDAY TRADING** Expect thin volumes this week. Christmas Eve sees early market closures. Christmas Day most markets closed. CME unchanged December 24 and 26. Thin liquidity can mean erratic moves — watch for speculative orders in both directions. Don't overreact to holiday noise. **NATURAL GAS** $4.05, up 1.54%. Bouncing after last week's selloff to $3.91. EIA still projects winter average at $4.30 — 22% higher than last winter. Full year 2026 at $4.01. Cold snap in early December supporting prices. LNG exports at record levels — 16 Bcf/d for 2025. Storage expected to end winter at 2,000 Bcf, 9% above five-year average. Short-term volatility but structural support remains. **THE WEEK AHEAD** Light data calendar. US Durable Goods Orders and GDP on deck. Holiday noise dominant. Watch $55 support on WTI. **THE BOTTOM LINE** We hit our targets last week. Now we're in holiday mode. Don't chase moves in thin markets. Crude bearish on oversupply — EIA sees WTI at $51 for 2026. Gas supported by LNG demand and winter draws. **FINAL WORD** If you have an energy project or deal that needs capital, we connect qualified opportunities with institutional and family office capital through our global network. Reach out: [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Tuesday: Technicals.