EMD084 - Geographic Feature: Australia

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Wednesday, December 24, 2025 — Geographic Feature: Australia. Quick note — our team is out of the office for the holidays, so we're doing geographic features this week. Regular programming returns Monday, December 29th. Merry Christmas Eve. Today: Australia — the Pacific energy powerhouse. **LNG MARKETS** Gladstone LNG prices at $9.01 per MMBtu, down from $12.90 in March 2025. Treasury forecasts recovery to $10 by end of 2026. China's energy policy is shifting — prioritizing pipeline and domestic gas over LNG imports. But Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and Malaysia are picking up the slack, increasing purchase volumes. **COAL DYNAMICS** Thermal coal at $108.46 per tonne as of December 16. Treasury forecasts a decline to $70 per tonne by end of 2026 — a 35% reduction. Exports to China have decreased but shipments to Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and Malaysia are increasing. Metallurgical coal — premium hard coking coal at $215.10 per tonne. Projected to decline to $140 by end of 2026. But Australia's position as a leading exporter of high-quality met coal provides resilience. India remains a crucial support for met coal demand. **THE STRUCTURAL SHIFT** Coal-fired power generation gradually declining as renewables and LNG grow. The composition of Australian coal output shifting toward metallurgical coal — from 34% in 2025 to 38% by 2030. South Korea has pledged to phase out unabated thermal coal by 2040. **WHY AUSTRALIA MATTERS** For investors looking at LNG offtake, met coal exposure, or Asia-Pacific energy infrastructure — Australia is essential. We connect qualified opportunities with institutional and family office capital. Reach out: [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Happy holidays. Thursday: Geographic Feature — Newfoundland.