EMD087 - Strategic Positioning: Back from the Holidays

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Monday, December 29, 2025 — Strategic Positioning. We're back from the holidays. Let's set the stage for year-end and 2026. **CRUDE OIL** WTI at $57.33, up 1% on the day. Brent at $61. Both on track for their steepest annual decline since 2020 — WTI down over 20% for the year. **THE 2025 STORY** Our bearish thesis played out exactly as we called it. WTI hit $55.28 earlier this month. Brent broke below $60. OPEC revised Q3 from deficit to a 500,000 bpd surplus. EIA, IEA, and every major trading house confirmed oversupply. **THE 2026 OUTLOOK** More of the same. EIA projects Brent averaging $55 in Q1 2026. WTI could average $50 for the full year. Global oil inventories expected to continue building through 2026. Non-OPEC supply growth over 1 million bpd expected. OPEC+ will struggle to increase production without crushing prices. **SUPPORTS TO WATCH** Geopolitical tensions still simmering — Middle East, Russia-Ukraine. China's fiscal spending plans could boost demand. Dollar weakness providing some commodity support. But fundamentals dominate. **NATURAL GAS** $3.89, down from recent highs. But the structural case holds. EIA projects winter average at $4.30 — 22% above last winter. Full year 2026 at $4.01. Goldman Sachs targeting $4.50 for summer 2026. **LNG EXPANSION** 2026-2028 will see the largest LNG supply expansion in history. This supports US natural gas demand structurally. Data center demand from AI continuing to grow — electricity demand up 3.7% in 2026. **THE WEEK AHEAD** Year-end trading. Light volumes. Watch for position squaring. New Year's Day markets closed Wednesday. **THE BOTTOM LINE** Crude bearish into 2026 — EIA sees $50 WTI. Gas supported by LNG demand and winter weather. The decoupling thesis continues. **FINAL WORD** If you have an energy project or deal that needs capital, we connect qualified opportunities with institutional and family office capital through our global network. Reach out: [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Tuesday: Technicals.