EMD089 - Year in Review: 2025 Thesis Validated

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Wednesday, December 31, 2025 — Year in Review. Happy New Year's Eve. Let's close out 2025. **THE 2025 SCORECARD — CRUDE OIL** WTI finishing the year near $57, down approximately 20% from January highs. Brent near $61. This was crude oil's worst year since 2020. Our bearish thesis played out exactly as we called it. We targeted WTI $56, Brent $60 — we hit both. WTI touched $55.28 in December. Brent broke below $60 to $59.73. **WHAT DROVE 2025** OPEC+ lost control of the narrative. Non-OPEC supply growth exceeded expectations — US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana all added barrels. China demand disappointed. Global inventories built. OPEC revised Q3 from deficit to a 500,000 bpd surplus. The oversupply narrative dominated the second half. **THE 2025 SCORECARD — NATURAL GAS** Finishing near $3.91. Up over 50% from 2025 lows — the opposite of crude. LNG exports reached record levels. Winter weather provided demand support. EIA projects winter average at $4.30. The decoupling thesis we called all year was fully validated. **2026 OUTLOOK** Crude bearish — EIA sees WTI averaging $50, Brent $55. Global inventories expected to build further. Non-OPEC supply growth over 1 million bpd. OPEC+ trapped. Natural gas bullish — EIA projects $4.01 for 2026. Goldman targeting $4.50 summer. 2026-2028 is the largest LNG expansion in history. Data center demand from AI structural tailwind. **MARKET HOURS** CME Globex closes today at 5pm CT. Reopens January 1 at 6pm CT. Cash markets closed Thursday. **THE BOTTOM LINE** 2025 validated our thesis completely. Trade the data. Not the headlines. Thank you for listening this year. **FINAL WORD** If you have an energy project or deal that needs capital, we connect qualified opportunities with institutional and family office capital through our global network. Reach out: [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Happy New Year. See you in 2026. Thursday: Markets closed. Friday: Weekly Recap.