EMD090 - New Year's Day: 2026 Positioning

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Thursday, January 1, 2026 — New Year's Day. Happy New Year. Markets are closed today. A quick note to kick off 2026. **WHERE WE STAND** WTI closed 2025 near $57, down approximately 20% for the year. Brent near $61, down around 17-19%. Crude oil's worst year since 2020. Natural gas closed near $3.91, up over 50% from 2025 lows. Our decoupling thesis — short crude, long gas — was fully validated. **2026 POSITIONING** We enter the new year with clear conviction. Crude bearish — EIA projects WTI averaging $50 for 2026, Brent $55. Global inventories continue building. Non-OPEC supply growth exceeds 1 million bpd. OPEC+ is trapped. Natural gas bullish — EIA projects $4.01 average for 2026. Goldman targeting $4.50 for summer. 2026-2028 represents the largest LNG capacity expansion in history. Data center demand from AI provides structural tailwind. **THE THESIS CONTINUES** Trade the decoupling. Short crude on oversupply. Long gas on LNG demand and structural tightness. Trade the data. Not the headlines. **MARKET HOURS** CME Globex reopens today at 6pm CT. Cash markets resume Friday. **THE BOTTOM LINE** 2025 proved us right. 2026 is about execution. Same thesis. New year. **FINAL WORD** If you have an energy project or deal that needs capital, we connect qualified opportunities with institutional and family office capital through our global network. Reach out: [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Happy New Year. Friday: Weekly Recap to kick off 2026.