EMD091 - Weekly Recap: First Trading Day of 2026

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Friday, January 2, 2026 — Weekly Recap. First trading day of the new year. Let's kick off 2026. **CRUDE OIL** WTI at $57.41, down 0.54% on the day. Brent at $60.85, down 0.78%. A muted start to the year. Markets digesting the 2025 damage — WTI down 20%, Brent down 17-19% for the year. **THE WEEK THAT WAS** Monday we covered strategic positioning coming back from the holidays. Tuesday we looked at technicals — $55 WTI support held. Wednesday we closed out 2025 with our Year in Review. Thursday markets were closed for New Year's Day. Today, first prints of 2026 confirm the thesis. **WHAT'S DRIVING PRICES** Oversupply concerns dominating. IEA predicts a surplus of 3.8 million barrels per day. BNP Paribas sees Brent falling to $55 in Q1 2026 before recovering to $60. Non-OPEC supply growth continues. OPEC+ trapped — they can't increase production without crushing prices. **OPEC+ UPDATE** Virtual meeting expected January 4. Likely to maintain decision to halt further supply increases. They're stuck. **NATURAL GAS** Mixed picture. Warm start to January cutting heating demand. But structural support remains. EIA projects winter average $4.30, full year 2026 at $4.01. LNG exports strong. Record Lower-48 production near 110 bcfd. Storage above five-year average. Short-term volatility but long-term bullish. **CATALYST WATCH** OPEC+ meeting January 4. China economic data. Weather forecasts for January-February heating season. EIA inventory reports resume. **THE BOTTOM LINE** 2026 starts exactly where 2025 ended. Crude oversupplied. Gas structurally supported. Trade the decoupling. **FINAL WORD** If you have an energy project or deal that needs capital, we connect qualified opportunities with institutional and family office capital through our global network. Reach out: [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Have a great weekend. Monday: Strategic Positioning for week two of 2026.