EMD092 - Strategic Positioning: Week Two of 2026

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Monday, January 5, 2026 — Strategic Positioning. Week two of 2026. Let's set the stage. **CRUDE OIL** WTI at $57.02, down 0.53% from Friday. Brent at $60.54, down 0.35%. Both continuing the soft start to 2026. **OPEC+ MEETING RESULTS** The January 4 meeting delivered exactly what we expected — no change. Eight key producers including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman agreed to maintain steady output. They paused planned production increases through February and March. The 1.65 million bpd of voluntary cuts remain in place. Next meeting February 1. **WHY IT MATTERS** OPEC+ is trapped. They cannot increase production without crushing prices further. 2025 saw oil drop over 18% — the steepest decline since 2020. The IEA predicts a 3.8 million bpd surplus in 2026. Non-OPEC supply keeps growing. They have no good options. **NATURAL GAS** $3.44, down nearly 5% on the day. Down 30% over the past month. Warm weather crushing short-term demand. Heating degree days falling across the southern central and eastern US. Storage flipped from deficit to surplus versus five-year average. But the structural case holds — EIA still projects $4.01 average for 2026. LNG exports hitting 16.3 bcfd. Dallas Fed survey sees year-end at $4.19. This is the buying opportunity if you believe the structural thesis. **CHINA WATCH** Services PMI slipped to 52.0 in December — slowest in six months. Manufacturing PMI at 50.1. Stimulus programs extending into 2026. The 15th Five-Year Plan kicks off. Watch for infrastructure spending impact on commodities. **CATALYST WATCH** EIA inventory reports resume this week. Weather forecasts for late January — potential cold snap in second half of month. China economic data. OPEC+ compliance monitoring. **THE BOTTOM LINE** Crude oversupplied. OPEC+ stuck. Gas selling off on weather but structural support remains. Trade the decoupling. **FINAL WORD** If you have an energy project or deal that needs capital, we connect qualified opportunities with institutional and family office capital through our global network. Reach out: [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Tuesday: Technicals.