EMD094 - Market Update: Oversupply Locked In

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Wednesday, January 7, 2026 — Market Update. **CRUDE OIL:** WTI at $57.13, down 0.2%. Brent at $60.53, down 0.3%. Soft trading amid oversupply fears. OPEC+ locked in Q1 output freeze—1.65 million bpd voluntary cuts hold through Feb/March. Exactly as predicted. IEA surplus at 3.8 million bpd for 2026. Non-OPEC supply growth from US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana relentless. OPEC+ trapped—no room to ramp without price collapse. **NAT GAS:** Henry Hub $2.86-$3.44 range. Down 5% weekly on warm Jan 7-11 forecast across eastern/southern US—crushing heating demand. EIA storage draw -38 Bcf last week (vs -51 consensus). Inventories 1.7% above 5-year average. But LNG exports hit record 19.9 Bcf/d. Production near 110 Bcf/d. Short-term bearish weather play, structural bullish—EIA holds $4.00/MMBtu 2026 average. Dallas Fed $4.19 year-end. **CATALYST WATCH:** EIA Weekly Petroleum Jan 8. Mid-Jan Northeast/Midwest storm potential. Late Jan cold snap watch. China data flows. OPEC+ compliance. **THE BOTTOM LINE:** Crude oversupplied, OPEC stuck. Gas dips on weather—prime buying opp for LNG thesis. Trade the decoupling. Data over headlines. **FINAL WORD:** Energy project or deal needs capital? We connect to institutional/family office networks. [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Thursday: Strategic Positioning.