EMD099 - Market Update: Geopolitical Spike

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Wednesday, January 14, 2026 — Market Update. **CRUDE OIL:** WTI surged to $61.09, up 2.68%. Brent at $65.42, up 2.43%. Biggest daily pop in weeks. Geopolitical risk back in focus—US-Iran tensions and Venezuelan production slipping to 950,000 bpd from 1.1 million. OPEC+ Q1 freeze holds. Eight core members keeping output steady. IEA still projects 3.8 million bpd surplus for 2026. Non-OPEC supply relentless. EIA expects Brent to average $56 for the year. Rally is geopolitical, not fundamental. Surplus thesis intact. **NATURAL GAS:** Henry Hub holding $3.33. Colder forecasts for Jan 18-22 in eastern US, Jan 23-27 in Rockies and Midwest boosting sentiment. LNG flows to US terminals hit 20.4 bcf/d Monday. Total exports including Mexico at 24 bcf/d. Storage at 3,256 Bcf—123 bcf below last year but 31 bcf above 5-year average. Europe storage 55% full versus 70% seasonal average—bullish for US LNG demand. EIA $4.00 2026 average. **CATALYST WATCH:** Cold snap Jan 18-22. EIA petroleum delayed to Jan 22. IEA Oil Market Report Jan 21. **BOTTOM LINE:** Crude rallies on geopolitics but surplus looms. Gas cold forecasts support. Decoupling continues. Trade data over headlines. **FINAL WORD:** Energy project needs capital? [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Thursday: Strategic Positioning.