EMD100 - Strategic Positioning: Geopolitical Fade

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Thursday, January 15, 2026 — Strategic Positioning. **CRUDE OIL:** WTI pulled back to $61, down 2% after five-day rally. Brent at $65, also down 2%. Geopolitical premium fading—fears of imminent US strike on Iran easing. But the rally added 9% over four sessions. OPEC holds demand growth forecast at 1.38 million bpd for 2026, reaching 106.52 million bpd. IEA still divergent—expects only 860,000 bpd demand growth. IEA sees 4 million bpd surplus. Non-OPEC supply relentless—US output forecast 13.59 million bpd. EIA expects prices 19% below 2025 levels. Position: Geopolitical spikes are selling opportunities. Surplus thesis intact. **NATURAL GAS:** Henry Hub at $3.10, pulling back from $3.33 highs. Warm Jan 9-15 seventh warmest since 1950. But cold snap coming—frosty air hitting northern US late week into next weekend. Storage 3,256 Bcf, 31 Bcf above 5-year average. Europe storage 57-58% full. LNG exports strong at 24 bcf/d total including Mexico. Morgan Stanley $4.25 target for 2026. EIA revised lower to $3.50 avg but sees $4.60 in 2027 on LNG demand. 37 mtpa new liquefaction capacity coming online 2026. Position: Long gas. Weather volatility noise. LNG structure and Asia demand intact. **CATALYST WATCH:** IEA Oil Market Report Jan 21. EIA Petroleum Jan 22. Late Jan cold potential. **BOTTOM LINE:** Crude geopolitical fade—sell the spike. Gas pullback is entry. Decoupling continues. **FINAL WORD:** Energy project needs capital? [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Friday: Weekly Recap.