EMD101 - Weekly Recap: Geopolitical Fade Confirmed

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Friday, January 16, 2026 — Weekly Recap. Week of Jan 12-16. **CRUDE OIL:** Wild week. WTI opened at $58.79, spiked to $62 mid-week on Iran tensions, now back to $59.22. Brent similar pattern—peaked near $66.50, back to $63.63. Geopolitical premium evaporated. Trump comments eased Iran strike fears. Venezuela resumed exports. EIA showed rising US crude and gasoline inventories. OPEC demand forecast 1.38 million bpd growth for 2026. IEA still divergent at 860K bpd. Supply forecasts: IEA 108.6 mb/d, OPEC 106.5 mb/d, EIA in between. Thesis confirmed: geopolitical spikes are selling opportunities. Surplus intact. **NATURAL GAS:** Henry Hub at $3.16, up from $3.12 mid-week. Futures slid 10% on reduced LNG flows. Feb contract at $3.12. Storage draw only 71 Bcf versus 146 Bcf 5-year average—warm weather impact. Working gas at 3,185 Bcf, 106 Bcf above 5-year average. But cold snap coming Jan 18-20, coldest days of the month. Enverus projects $3.80 winter average. 33 LNG vessels departed US ports last week. Thesis holds: weather volatility is noise. LNG structure intact. **NEXT WEEK CATALYSTS:** IEA Oil Market Report Jan 21. EIA Petroleum Jan 22. Cold snap Jan 18-20. **BOTTOM LINE:** Crude geopolitical fade confirmed. Gas weather dip loaded. Decoupling executes. **FINAL WORD:** Energy project needs capital? [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Monday: Strategic Positioning.