EMD104 - Market Update: IEA Confirms Glut

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Wednesday, January 21, 2026 — Market Update. Week four of 2026. **CRUDE OIL:** WTI fell to $59.50 per barrel, down 1.3%. Brent tracking lower near $63. Geopolitical tensions easing but tariff fears clouding demand outlook. Kazakhstan halted output at two large oilfields temporarily but effect subsided. US crude inventory build expected weighing on prices. OPEC forecasts demand growth 1.4 million bpd in 2026, sees market balanced. OPEC+ pumped 42.83 million bpd in December. IEA released report today projecting supply exceeds demand by 3.84 million bpd in 2026. Major divergence between OPEC balance view and IEA glut view. Our thesis: believe the glut. Prices trading above Goldman and EIA forecasts of $52-56. Mean reversion coming. **NATURAL GAS:** Henry Hub surged to $3.94, up 0.8%. Cold snap delivering. Storage at 3,185 Bcf as of Jan 9, down 71 Bcf week over week. Still 106 Bcf above five-year average. EIA projects $3.46 average for 2026, $3.38 Q1. JP Morgan $3.85 Q1. Enverus $3.80 winter. BMI $3.90 for 2026. Current price above forecasts on cold weather demand. Structural bull case intact. Buy the dips. **CATALYST WATCH:** IEA report released today. EIA Petroleum Status Report Thursday Jan 22. **BOTTOM LINE:** Crude glut confirmed by IEA. Gas catching bid on cold weather. Trade the decoupling. Short crude rallies, long gas dips. **FINAL WORD:** Energy project needs capital? [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Thursday: Strategic Positioning.