Ep 13｜每年有一份报告，能让农产品在一天之内大幅波动——它叫WASDE，每月10号发布

from 非共识的20分钟 · host Jason的投资思考

这期聊一个中文世界绝大多数投资者完全忽略的报告——但每个月10号左右，全球的大宗商品交易员都会屏住呼吸等它出来。它叫WASDE(世界农产品供需估计),由美国农业部每月发布，是全球农产品市场的「月度成绩单」。有多重要?这么说吧：2022年5月，WASDE把美国小麦期末库存预测大幅下调，当天小麦期货在10分钟内跌了6%。一份政府报告，让全球粮价在一个上午就重新定价了。 3月的WASDE将在3月10日发布。今年农产品市场的背景特别有意思： · 玉米：$4.25附近，已经在这个价格区间横盘了22个交易日 · 大豆：$11.20,巴西今年预计大丰收(+5% YoY),供给压力不小 · 小麦：过去两个月悄悄从低点反弹超过10%,没什么人在聊这期，我要帮你搞懂WASDE的定价机制。不是「要不要买玉米期货」,是这张供需平衡表到底在看什么,为什么期末库存那一个数字，能让整个市场在30分钟内重新定价。 ------ 声明：本节目旨在提供分析框架与历史视角，所有内容均为信息分享与学术探讨，不推荐任何具体投资标的或操作。投资决策请基于个人独立研究。 -- Hosting provided by SoundOn

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Ep 13｜每年有一份报告，能让农产品在一天之内大幅波动——它叫WASDE，每月10号发布

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