Ep 42 - Back on the escalatory spiral

Policymakers in Beijing wasted no time getting back into the swing of things after the week-long October holiday.On Wednesday, officials at the Ministry of Commerce unveiled sweeping updates to China’s export control regime – with new controls on rare earths and lithium batteries in particular focus.The moves also further Beijing’s drive toward long-arm jurisdiction by applying some of the controls to companies globally – not simply those producing within China’s borders.Unsurprisingly, on Friday, US President Donald Trump responded to the move by applying a new 100% tariff to imports from China – and promised to implement an unspecified set of new export controls on US software.In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by Cory Combs, Trivium’s head of supply chain research, to go through it all. Specifically, the two discuss:The key details of China’s export control expansionWhat’s new, and what’s not in these controlsBeijing’s seeming motivation in implementing these controls now – which we argue goes beyond the immediate US-China trade negotiationsHow the near-term practical impacts of these controls are likely to be minimal – even if the medium-term implications are hugeWhether China has the capacity to enforce long-arm jurisdictionWhat all this means for ongoing US-China talksThe gents end the discussion by walking through Trivium’s work projecting which critical minerals are likely to be controlled next by China.For anyone who needs to stay ahead of the curve on China’s upcoming moves on this front – you’ll definitely want to listen to the end.