The Trivium China Podcast

It’s been another consequential week for China’s economy and foreign policy – with Beijing deploying its blocking rules for the first time ever in response to new US sanctions tied to Iranian oil purchases.On the first half of this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research Cory Combs to unpack what China’s latest legal and regulatory moves mean for the future of US-China economic competition and sanctions enforcement.The two discuss:China’s first-ever use of its blocking rulesWhy Beijing reacted so strongly to new US sanctions on Chinese refinersThe growing risks facing banks and firms caught between US and Chinese legal systemsHow China’s broader counter-sanctions toolkit is evolvingWhy uncertainty itself may be part of Beijing’s strategyThen in the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by Trivium’s Head of Markets Research Dinny McMahon and Lead Macro Analyst Joe Peissel to break down the latest signals from China’s economy following a surprisingly strong Q1.The three discuss:Why China’s economy outperformed expectations early in the yearHow the Iran war is affecting inflation, exports, and industrial costsBeijing’s renewed push on infrastructure investmentWhy consumption remains the economy’s weakest linkWhether China’s export machine can continue powering growth through the rest of 2026Together, the conversations offer a timely look at how Beijing is navigating mounting geopolitical pressure while trying to keep the economy on track.

What happens when a Chinese AI startup tries to sell itself to a major US tech company, but Beijing decides it doesn’t like the deal?In this week’s episode, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to unpack the latest in the Meta-Manus acquisition saga and what it reveals about China’s evolving approach to tech regulation and national security.The two discuss:Why Chinese regulators ordered the Meta-Manus deal unwoundHow Beijing is using dormant foreign investment review powers in new waysThe role of VIE structures and “Singapore washing” in cross-border tech dealsChina’s growing concerns around technology outflowWhat this all means for Chinese startups, founders, and the future of US-China tech competitionAndrew and Kendra also explore how both Washington and Beijing are increasingly converging around the same core question: who gets to control strategically important technology?

With the Xi-Trump meeting looming and the Iran situation changing every hour, how are China and the US trying to secure their respective interests?This week, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk and Head of Supply Chain Research Cory Combs break down key dynamics – from:The evolving impacts of the Iran war and China's responsesChina's latest supply chain and anti-foreign coercion policiesThe US's ongoing mass-diversification push amid Chinese export controlsUS-China strategy as the leadership meeting approachesAnd more!With both Andrew and Cory having just returned from ~6 weeks of travel, they take stock in a wide-ranging conversation – with many questions, but also a few proposed answers.

China's economy started the year off on the front foot – but fragilities remain just below the surface, and the war in Iran may put that early positive momentum to the test.To discuss the latest dynamics driving the economy, and the potential…erm…hiccups it may face in the coming months, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk is joined this week by two seasoned economists:Beijing-based China Economist at the Standard Bank Group, Jeremy StevensAnd Trivium’s own lead macro-econ analyst, Joe PeisselThe three run through the latest monthly macro data, discuss where key vulnerabilities are lurking, and look ahead to how the Iran situation may upend things, if and as it drags on.

There’s only one storyline that matters geopolitically right now, and that’s the ongoing war between the US and Israel and Iran.Now in its third week, the war increasingly looks likely to be a protracted engagement, and as the conflict grinds on, the implications – both political and economic – for the many countries not involved in the fighting will become clearer.China, of course, has a wide-range of interests – both short- and long-term – that will be impacted by the situation.To unpack the thinking around all of this in Beijing, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk is joined on this week’s episode by two of Trivium’s lead analysts on all things geopolitics, trade, and commodities – Joe Mazur and Even Pay.The trio gets into:China’s most immediate concerns – largely revolving around resource securityHow Beijing’s patient buildup of commodity reserves over the past decade has now been vindicatedWhether Xi Jinping and company see any strategic upside from the confrontationWhat, if anything, Beijing can do to influence the outcomeAnd what it all means – in China’s view – for the longer-term evolution of the geopolitical systemIt’s another banger folks – you won’t want to miss it.

On this week’s edition of the Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is back with a gaggle of Trivium analysts to go deep on various aspects of the recently released 15th Five Year Plan (FYP).The group covers a broad range of issues including:Key macroeconomic, development, and economic security goalsThe plan for industrial upgrading – and key priorities in upstream, midstream, and downstream industriesThe nexus of technological and industrial ambitionHow climate goals and industrial policy interactChina’s latest efforts to solve its compute problemHow innovation factors into goals for the healthcare and agriculture sectorsJust like the FYP itself, this conversation is wide-ranging and hits on a bunch of key policy themes that matter – both now and in the years ahead.

It’s been a big week in China, with the annual government meetings (aka the Two Sessions) kicking off to lay out key policy priorities for the year – and to drop a draft version of the 15th Five Year Plan (FYP).There’s a ton of policy to wade through in both the annual government work reports and the FYP – from macro, to tech, to healthcare, to bio-manufacturing, and more.On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by six different Trivium policy specialists to walk through their initial takes on what matters most in latest releases.Then on the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by Ilaria Mazzocco, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow with the Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, to discuss all the latest in the China electric vehicle (EV) space. Ilaria gets into:Successes and failures of Chinese industrial policy in supporting EVsThe role of the private sector in realizing China’s EV dominanceHow countries throughout the world are responding to the Chinese EV juggernaut – from the US, to the EU, to a range of emerging markets – as they seek to protect or grow their own advanced manufacturing capabilitiesHow it all plays into various national conceptions of economic security – in both China and the WestThe conversation is a must listen for anyone who cares about the future of global electrification, as well as issues of economic security.

2026 has kicked off with a geopolitical bang – from US intervention in Venezuela to threats against Greenland to potential military action against Iran, not to mention the latest tariff turmoil following last week’s US Supreme Court ruling.All of this volatility – and what it might say about the role the US will play in the world going forward – can lead to some pretty lazy assumptions that China will automatically benefit by easily positioning itself as a stabilizing global force. But reality is more complicated: Chinese leaders are likely just as befuddled by the rapidly changing landscape as their counterparts in NATO.On this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk sits down with Jude Blanchette, director of the RAND China Research Center, to unpack how China actually sees “The Rupture” in global politics.This is a conversation you won’t want to miss.But wait, there’s more! Before talking with Jude, Andrew is joined by Trivium’s Head of Markets Research Dinny McMahon to discuss Beijing‘s recent focus on the need to “invest in people,” and the step-change that might signal for the buildout of China’s welfare state during the next five-year plan period.

It's been a while between trips, but last week Trivium's Head of Markets Research, Dinny McMahon, was back in Beijing.In this podcast, he and Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk discuss Dinny's observations and takeaways from the trip.After dissecting the vibe on the street, the gents get into:Where there might be some potential for investment growth this yearWhy the only thing that will unlock household spending is a housing market recoveryThis one is short and sweet, so please enjoy this fun-sized pod. And a note to listeners: The pod will be off for the Lunar New Year next week.But we'll be back in your feeds after the holiday with some exciting new content, so stay tuned!

US-China bilateral relations have, surprisingly, been an anchor of calm amidst a sea of geopolitical uncertainty in the opening innings of 2026.And increasingly, it looks like the seemingly fragile truce between the two countries will prove more resilient that it initially seemed – back when US President Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to a trade war détente in November.To discuss the state of play – and where things might be going – Trivium China pod host Andrew Polk is joined this week by Joe Mazur (Head of Geopolitical Research) and Even Pay (Head of Ag and Trade Policy Research).The trio discuss:The notable shift in tone and approach from the Trump administration toward ChinaThe latest Xi-Trump call, which took place this weekThe upcoming visit to China by Donald Trump, which is set for AprilWhether America’s more aggressive policy in the Western Hemisphere is hurting or helping China’s interests in the regionThen Andrew and Even go deep on the most important domestic policy development of the week, the release of the 2026 No. 1 Document, which outlines ag policy priorities for the year.They touch on:Why ag and rural policies are so important to Party leadersThe shift toward boosting efficiency and productivity in the ag sector – as part of Xi’s wider promotion of New Quality Productive ForcesRecent adjustments to ag and rural policy funding arrangements, and what they might mean for China’s non-urban areas

On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk speaks with our lead macro-econ analyst, Joe Peissel, to take a quick temperature check of China’s latest macro data.The two discuss:What the full-year 2025 data (released in mid-Jan) tells us about the state of play and the likely economic trajectory for 2026How the constituent parts of the economy – consumption, investment, and exports – are faringWhether the export machine can possibly go from strength to strength in 2026Then Andrew is joined by pod regulars Dinny McMahon (Head of Markets Research) and Cory Combs (Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research) to examine the enduring headwinds to capital expenditure in China.They get into:Whether the cratering in fixed asset investment (FAI) growth in H2 2025 was a one-off or is the new normal (spoiler alert: it’s probably the latter)Prospects for investment in a couple of key industries – autos and renewable energyHow government policy might address the investment slideAnd where infrastructure spending fits in – particularly energy infrastructure, as it relates to the recently released massive spending plan from State GridIt’s another wonk-fest, so lap it up you China nerds.

China’s financial regulators have started 2026 with a flurry of activity.On January 14, the securities regulator raised margin requirements on stock trading in a bid to cool investors’ exuberance.The following day the central bank expanded a bunch of its relending facilities, and cut the interest rate on all of its structural lending tools.Then on January 20, the finance ministry rolled out a bunch of measures designed to bolster investment by small, private sector firms.What’s driving this hyperactive policymaking? That’s what Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss on the first Trivium podcast of 2026.They look at:How weak Q4 economic data has lit a fire under regulatorsWhy authorities have settled on this particular combination of policiesAnd what signals Beijing is trying to send marketsBut wait, there’s more! On the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by a new guest to the podcast, Trivium’s lead AI and semiconductor analyst Linghao Bao. Linghao joins to discuss:Beijing’s intervention in Meta’s recently announced acquisition of Chinese AI start-up ManusThe specific regulatory tools China is using to slow – or maybe even stop – the dealThe wider implications for China’s AI start-up ecosystemThe gents cover a lot of ground in this one – enjoy!

November economic data was a bit of a letdown, suggesting China’s economy is rapidly losing growth momentum.Fixed asset investment declined by double digitsIndustrial output grew at its slowest rate in 15 monthsRetail sales of consumer goods grew at the slowest rate in three yearsBut things aren’t as bad as they seem.This week, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s lead macro-econ analyst Joe Peissel to dig into November’s economic data. The gents cover:China’s supply-side slowdown, and why it’s partially policy-drivenWhy China’s consumption dynamics are more resilient than headline data suggestThe reason Beijing appears willing to tolerate a slight economic correctionAndrew and Joe then round things off by discussing China’s policy and economic outlook going into 2026.

As the new year approaches, governments, corporations, and investors alike are asking: what will critical material supply chains look like in the year to come?In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Cory Combs, Head of Critical Mineral and Supply Chain Research, discuss where global supply chains and diversification efforts stand today – and how they are likely to shape up in 2026.Starting from the latest need-to-know specifics and working up to the broader strategic takes from Team Trivium, the lads discuss:What's going on with China's general licenses and export trendsTrends and issues in US rare earth and broader critical mineral diversification efforts – including our take on the brand new international "Pax Silica" initiativeHow the rest of the world is responding to all this, both reactively and proactivelyHow China is responding to global diversification efforts – including where it is and is not pushing back, and whyPutting it all together, they take a stab at framing the bigger strategic issues ahead.We've all heard plenty about the tactics of supply chain decoupling – e.g., China's from US chips and Dutch lithography machines, and the US's from China's processed critical mineralsBut this all begs key questions, like: What is a desirable end state for both sides? And what does "security" actually look like? (Hint: it's not full decoupling.)Despite the fierce problems at hand, the gents land on a surprisingly optimistic vision of where US-China relations could land in the next few years – a happy note on which to enter the holidays after a tumultuous year.

At the end of each year, China's top economic policymakers get together for the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) to discuss their goals for the year ahead.This year's CEWC wrapped up on December 11, and in this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, get together to discuss the ins-and-outs of the meeting's official readout.Warning: The readout from the CEWC is invariably a big-picture policy document that's frustratingly thin on detail.Deciphering what the leadership means takes a little bit of reading between the lines.And that's exactly what the gents do!They start off with their 30,000-foot takeaways (TL;DR: Beijing envisions 2026 looking a lot like 2025).Then they get into:Where we might expect extra government spendingWhether Beijing will double-down on the consumer goods trade-in programHow Beijing intends to boost consumption

In mid-2024, Beijing rebranded its overcapacity problems as “involution.” Does it matter? As the bard would say, a rose by any other name…And yet, over time it’s become clear that this was more than just a rebranding exercise. Along with the change in name came a subtle shift in how Beijing perceives its overcapacity problems – a shift that has important policy implications.In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, talk all things involution. The gents discuss:How the concept of involution differs from that of overcapacityWhy Beijing doesn’t think overcapacity can exist in a global free marketWhat Beijing’s anti-involution efforts look likeAnd what it all means for the rest of the worldThen, Andrew wraps things up with a brief rundown of the most recent developments in the US-China trade truce.

On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, your loyal Trivium team digs into China’s key domestic and regional developments from the past few days.First, Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver discuss:The Party’s latest conference on law-based governance – and what it tells about how Xi Jinping views China’s legal and regulatory systemsXi’s motivations in refreshing and solidifying the various rules that govern Party and government behaviorChina’s related efforts to build out its foreign-facing legal toolkitThe gents then move on to examine the intensifying diplomatic row between China and Japan – and why both sides are unlikely to climb down.Then, in the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by Trivium’s lead macro-econ analyst Joe Peissel to discuss:The recent, and curious, drop-off in fixed asset investment (FAI) in China, why it’s happening, and what it means for the wider macro-economic growth trajectory heading into 2026Fair warning: This one gets pretty wonky!

With the US and China having agreed to a détente over trade, now is a good time to take a step back from the day-to-day back-and-forth of measures and countermeasure, and look at the longer term implications of China’s new economic model for trade.In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, kick off by discussing China’s surprisingly bleak October economic data, before wading into big picture trade issues.They discuss:How China intends to maintain export growth in the face of rising trade tensionsWhether the world is facing a China Shock 2.0, and how it will differ from the first China ShockAnd how countries might adapt to expanding exports of Chinese advanced manufactured goods

Confusion around what China has officially agreed to in terms of pausing its rare earths, and other critical mineral, export controls persists – even as we are a week out from Donald Trump and Xi Jinping’s trade agreement in South Korea.Significant discrepancies remain between official statements from the White House and China’s Ministry of Commerce on the issue.Meanwhile, officials and commercial players on both sides of the Pacific are reporting significant differences around their expectations for how quickly, and abundantly, rare earths and other critical minerals will flow from China.In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by his colleague Cory Combs to lay out their latest understanding of the issue. The two discuss:The key discrepancies between US and Chinese statements on the export control pauseHow political messaging from the White House is adding to the confusion for businessesAnd whether the political will exists for both sides to fully align on the details – and to maintain the trade ceasefire for a full yearAndrew and Cory then move on to examine the growing debate in Washington around how quickly the US can fully end its reliance on China for rare earth supplies. Cory gets into:What a realistic timeline for ending reliance on China would look likeThe reasons the US found itself in this situation in the first placeBenchmarking how quickly China can build new rare earths processing facilities – as a baseline for the potential US build outThe highly technical aspects of rare earths processing that will ultimately determine success or failureIt’s another fascinating discussion from the fine folks on the Trivium team – you won’t want to miss it!Also, check out this excellent paper by Jessica DiCarlo, Cory Combs, and Raphael Deberdt that Cory mentions in the show: Fractured Extraction: Mining Firms, Provinces and Municipalities in the Decentralized Politics of China’s Rare Earth Production

It was another monumental week on the China front.On Tuesday, the Party released its sprawling 15th Five Year Plan (FYP) Proposals – laying out the sheer scale of Xi Jinping’s policy ambitions over the next half-decadeThen on Thursday, Xi and US President Donald Trump got together in South Korea – their first meeting in six years – and agreed to a year-long ceasefire in the trade warIn this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by colleagues Kendra Schaefer and Dinny McMahon to break it all down.That’s right folks, this episode is a two-fer.Andrew and Kendra start off by discussing:The details of the trade agreement, as we know themWhat China thinks it got out of the dealThe pros and cons of the one-year timeframeFuture tripwires that could set things back on an escalatory spiralKendra then touches on her key takeaways from the 15th FYP Proposals, when it comes to China’s tech ambitions, before Dinny joins the pod to walk through:The headline macro takeaways from the FYP ProposalsChinese leaders’ sense of urgency over the next five yearsHow policymakers are thinking about consumption’s role in the economyChina’s more assertive position on the world stageIt’s another solid episode, folks, so enjoy!

Alright folks, this one is a banger.In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined first by colleagues Dinny McMahon and Joe Peissel. The three discuss:The most recent China macro dataEconomic headwinds and tailwinds as we move into 2026Their early read of the 4th Plenum – and Xi Jinping’s make or break moment with the upcoming Five-Year PlanAndrew is then joined by a very special guest – US-China Business Council President Sean Stein. They get into:How US businesses are navigating the uncertainty of the US-China relationshipHow the fentanyl issue offers the most promising path toward building trustThe impact of the BIS’ new 50% rule on corporate complianceWhy US companies still value the China market (The reasons might surprise you!)It’s so good you’ll want to listen to it twice.By the by: The fellas mention this report in the pod, which is very much worth checking out, as well: China’s Economic Transition: Debt, Demography, Deglobalization, and Scenarios for 2035

It’s been a frenetic and exhausting couple of weeks on the US-China front.After tensions heightened again last week – in the wake of China’s major expansion of export controls – the two sides continued to jockey, both privately and publicly, over the past few days.At this point, it appears that both sides are willing to continue negotiating – but the current state of the relationship is very fragile and will remain highly volatile.To discuss where things currently stand, how we got here, and where we are going, this week’s pod features Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver.The gents get into everything we know, everything we think we know, and everything we definitely don’t know about what’s next for US-China negotiations.

Policymakers in Beijing wasted no time getting back into the swing of things after the week-long October holiday.On Wednesday, officials at the Ministry of Commerce unveiled sweeping updates to China’s export control regime – with new controls on rare earths and lithium batteries in particular focus.The moves also further Beijing’s drive toward long-arm jurisdiction by applying some of the controls to companies globally – not simply those producing within China’s borders.Unsurprisingly, on Friday, US President Donald Trump responded to the move by applying a new 100% tariff to imports from China – and promised to implement an unspecified set of new export controls on US software.In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by Cory Combs, Trivium’s head of supply chain research, to go through it all. Specifically, the two discuss:The key details of China’s export control expansionWhat’s new, and what’s not in these controlsBeijing’s seeming motivation in implementing these controls now – which we argue goes beyond the immediate US-China trade negotiationsHow the near-term practical impacts of these controls are likely to be minimal – even if the medium-term implications are hugeWhether China has the capacity to enforce long-arm jurisdictionWhat all this means for ongoing US-China talksThe gents end the discussion by walking through Trivium’s work projecting which critical minerals are likely to be controlled next by China.For anyone who needs to stay ahead of the curve on China’s upcoming moves on this front – you’ll definitely want to listen to the end.

Tired of listening to the same old Trivium voices? Wishing for more variety in your podcast diet? Well, do we have a treat for you!In this week's podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, are joined by Gerard DiPippo, associate director at the RAND China Research Center and a senior researcher in RAND's D.C. office.Gerard is one of the sharpest minds out there when it comes to the global implications of what's happening in China's economy.The conversation starts with Gerard explaining what he means when he makes the observation that China's economy is currently "both strong and weak at the same time."The gents then discuss Gerard's recent work assessing where exports previously bound for the US are now heading, and also talk through how falling prices have managed to keep Chinese exports buoyant.Finally, they get into China's anti-involution push and where Beijing might be taking it.Interested in Gerard's work? We highly suggest you check out his recent piece for the China Leadership monitor, "Changing Course in a Storm: China’s Economy in the Trade War."

Chinese policymakers are looking to diffuse AI into key industrial, commercial, and governance fields as deeply and quickly as possible.The overarching framework for their approach is captured in the AI+ plus initiative.Officials published the overarching policy architecture for AI+ in late August.And more granular AI+X plans (e.g. AI+Energy, AI+Transportation) are now starting to roll out.In this week’s podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by colleagues Kendra Schaefer (head of tech policy research) and Cory Combs (head of critical mineral and supply chain research) to explain China’s AI+ approach.They delve into:The overarching AI+ framework – and how it differs from previous AI policies in ChinaThe six key fields that China is targeting for AI diffusionWhat to expect as the AI+ policy ecosystem takes shape in the months aheadChina’s AI+Energy plan – what it seeks to achieve and why it is so fundamental to the wider AI+ visionHow officials will approach more foundational aspects of AI+ – including foundational models, compute, data supply, developer ecosystems, and talentThe gang then wrap up the discussion by zeroing in on why the AI race is different from previous global competitions to produce technological breakthroughs.The key point: Achieving AI breakthroughs will look more like past pushes into electrification and the internet – as opposed to the nuclear weapon or space races.You’ll definitely want to stick around till the end for this one – enjoy!

For decades, China's economy was driven by debt-fueled construction of housing and infrastructure.But once the housing market collapsed in 2021, China needed to find a new growth model.The key parts of that new model are well known: Industrial upgradingAggressive export growthTechnological innovation What's less well understood is how these parts fit together, and how the new model might transform China in the coming decade – assuming it all works.For the past 18 months, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, have been working on a research project focused on understanding what type of economy Beijing is trying to build over the next decade, and how those efforts will be shaped by the challenges of high debt levels, a souring demographic profile, and the shifting forces of deglobalization. CSIS published that report – China’s Economic Transition: Debt, Demography, Deglobalization, and Scenarios for 2035 – at the beginning of September.In this podcast, the gents draw upon that research to explain what Beijing wants from its new growth model, how it's supposed to work, and how we might be able to tell if it's working.

China’s GDP growth has been unexpectedly strong this year. But paradoxically, tax revenue has been contracting.That’s not supposed to happen:Tax revenue typically falls during a recession, but not when the economy is expanding by more than 5% annually.In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Trivium’s Head of Markets Research, discuss the reasons behind China’s falling tax revenue, and why it matters – both in the short term and to Beijing’s longer-term economic aspirations.They then get into what Beijing is doing about it, and whether those efforts are likely to meaningfully boost badly needed tax receipts.

Xi Jinping’s growing diplomatic clout was on full display over the past week.Things kicked off in the Chinese port city of Tianjin, where Xi hosted the annual meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.The enduring image from that meeting will be a beaming Russian President Vladimir Putin, walking hand-in-hand with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi – just before the two shared a hearty laugh with Xi.Over the next several days, Xi hosted a spate of key bilateral meetings with Global South leaders – the one-on-ones with India and Russia (again), alongside Malaysia, Indonesia, and North Korea stood out as particularly notable.And of course, on Wednesday, many of those same leaders joined Xi in Beijing for a huge military parade to mark the 80th anniversary of the ending of the “Chinese People’s War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression” – or what most of the world refers to as World War II.The big question: Was all this pageantry simply good optics for the Chinese?Or will the past week mark a major turning point in China’s hoped-for shift to a New World Order?In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver hash it all out.They also talk through how to make small talk when a fellow authoritarian leader floats the idea of immortality.

China's stock markets have been on a tear over the last few months, with the benchmark CSI 300 Index – which tracks the biggest companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen – up 25% since its low point in February.Beijing has wanted the market to rally for quite some time – but this upsurge has come as something of a surprise. China’s economic fundamentals aren’t really conducive to a market recovery: deflation isn’t getting any better, consumer confidence is still weak, the property sector has been worsening, and local governments still aren’t paying their suppliers.But Beijing is hoping that there's a real foundation to this rally – a foundation that it's responsible for building, quietly and gradually, over the past 18 months.In our latest podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the recent market rally, as well as the changing role Beijing envisions for the stock market in the economy. They also explore Beijing's:Concept of a "slow bull market"And efforts to rebuild public trust in the market, to make it a worthwhile place to invest

China's export controls on rare earth elements have exposed major US supply chain vulnerabilities. Now the US is scrambling to plug the holes – and China is working to maintain its leverage.The big question is: how far will each side go in these efforts?In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Cory Combs, Head of Critical Mineral and Supply Chain Research, take stock of China's maturing export controls, the evolving US response, and where this all leads.They break down:What China is doing to bolster its leverageWhere the US side's response is succeeding and failingWhat a stable end-state might be for global manufacturing supply chains – balancing the upsides and downsides of Chinese supplies

The quest to understand Beijing's views on consumer spending continues. The latest: On August 13, China's finance ministry (MoF) said it would bring down borrowing costs for service sector firms by providing them with rebates on their interest payments.Curiously, authorities framed the measure – which is clearly designed to increase investment – as being an effort to boost consumption.In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the idiosyncrasies of China's consumption policies.They discuss:Why Beijing sees the path toward greater consumption as reliant on more investmentWhy consumption support efforts are increasingly pivoting toward servicesAnd why China's authorities have opted to dispense rebates on interest payments, rather than just cut interest rates outright

When the Politburo met to talk about the economy at the end of July, the general tone was one of contentment. Despite the disruption of the Trump tariffs, China's economy has outperformed expectations this year, led by truly remarkable export growth.In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the state of China's economy. The gents get into China's:Latest export miraclePersistently weak household consumptionEfforts to deal with overcapacityThen they wrap up with some thoughts about what to expect from economic policy for the rest of the year.

China and the US are both rapidly refining their approaches to global AI development, through newly released AI actions plans.In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to discuss what’s in the latest plans.The two discuss:The Trump administration’s pivot on chip sales to China, and the new guidance on chips laid out in the recently released US AI planThe conflicting messages on whether US export controls will loosen or tighten going forward – and Beijing’s perception of the issueHow the US plans to get allied countries on board with its AI planThe competing visions around open-source AI developmentChina’s pitch to the world for inclusive AI development, in its new AI planAnd which horse the rest of the world will likely back, given the competing US and Chinese approachesIt’s good to be back!After taking an unscheduled break for a few weeks, we are glad to finally be back in your podcast feed!Our apologies to listeners for the short hiatus, but this discussion was worth the wait. Enjoy!

Is Beijing finally gearing up to address chronic oversupply – and resulting price wars – in its NEV and other cleantech sectors?Trey McArver joins Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk this week to discuss just that question.Specifically, they examine what may be the early signs of a major policy shift – meant to break through the structural causes that keep industries from consolidating and zombie firms from exiting the market.The two discuss:The most recent meeting of the Central Commission for Financial and Economic Affairs – which took direct aim at these issuesOther signs that momentum is building for a more forceful approachThe ongoing challenges that such a policy pivot would faceParallels between this moment and mid-2016 – the last time a significant new macro policy framework was rolled outThe gents also dive into their takeaways from the June Politburo meeting – as the Party looks to better coordinate its top policymaking bodies – and touch briefly on the latest rumors that Xi Jinping is losing his grip on power.Spoiler alert: We don’t buy the rumors. It’s another fun one – so enjoy!

At the Lujiazui Financial forum in June, central bank (PBoC) Governor Pan Gongsheng gave a speech that we believe redefined Beijing's attitude toward RMB internationalization.Since the policy was launched in 2009, RMB internationalization has been a struggle, with Beijing's commitment to maintaining capital controls making it difficult to claw market share from the dollar.But Pan's comments suggest Beijing thinks things might be about to get easier – with global faith in the dollar starting to erode, countries and companies might soon start looking for viable alternatives.That could create an opportunity for the RMB – as long as China is ready to grab it.In this week's podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the implications of Pan's comments, and the flurry of recent measures in support of RMB internationalization.

In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by colleagues Ether Yin (Trivium’s head of policy research) and Joe Mazur (Trivium’s head of geopolitical research) – who all got together in Beijing. The three discuss a variety of topics including:China’s improving consumer dataThe current vibes in Beijing, as tourists flock inThe latest on US-China trade talksThe latest on EU-China trade talksHow China issues played into the G7 meetings in CanadaCome for the macro-econ data, stay for the geopolitical hot takes!

In the latest episode of the Trivium China podcast, Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver discuss this week’s phone call between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump that appears to have gotten trade talks back on track, for now. The two discuss:The developments and misperceptions from both sides that almost derailed the Geneva truce over the past three weeksWhat we know about the Xi-Trump call, and what needs to happen next to keep things on trackChina’s perspective on its rare earth export controls – and how the slow-moving approval process is upending global manufacturingPotential paths forward to a lasting agreement around US-China tradeThe EU perspective on all this – and how US-China negotiations may leave Europe out in the coldThe upshot: US-China trade talks are currently in a much better place after the call than they were just a few days ago – but whether that will last is anyone’s guess. 

On this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by his colleagues Kendra Schaefer (Trivium’s head of tech policy) and Ether Yin (Trivium’s head of policy research) to talk through the latest tech controls from the US on China – and China’s likely reaction.The three discuss:The Trump administration’s move to restrict sales of electronic design automation (EDA) software to ChinaThe EDA landscape in China and whether Chinese tech firms can step in to fill this void in the semiconductor supply chainA spate of other US restrictions on chemicals for semiconductors, butane and ethane, machine tools, and aviation equipmentHow the Chinese will react to these moves, and what they suggest about the Trump administration’s internal coordination on China (or lack thereof)What it all means for the 90-day trade truce – and the prospects for wider tech and trade negotiationsThis stuff is pretty wild – and pretty depressing – but stick with us to the end, because we at least try to close on an upbeat note. 

In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s head of critical mineral and supply chain research, Cory Combs, to address the mounting confusion over whether and how China will ease off on its rare earth export curbs. The gents discuss:The implications behind China’s recent approval of a handful of rare earth magnet export licensesWhether China would consider removing rare earths from its dual-use export control list – spoiler alert: it won’tReactions to supply chain disruptions from electronics companies, defense manufacturers, and the US national security realmChina’s most recent threat to retaliate against companies that comply with US rules targeting Huawei chips via the Anti-Foreign Sanctions LawThe fragile nature of the 90-day US-China de-escalation, and what developments might derail the détenteStrap in, we go deep in the weeds in this one.

In this week’s pod, Trivium co-founders Andrew Polk, Trey McArver, and Ether Yin all sat down together in DC to discuss the recent de-escalation in the US-China trade war.They guys also drilled down on China’s move to grant licenses for critical mineral exports to the US, as part of the temporary trade reprieve.And finally, the gents discussed where Beijing was really focused this week – deepening ties with Latin America.You definitely won’t want to miss this one!

It’s been a long time coming, but Beijing is finally ramping up economic support to counter the fallout from tariffs.In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the wave of monetary policy measures rolled out by financial regulators on Wednesday.The gents get into the nitty gritty of China’s financial system – with forays into PBoC relending facilities, provident fund mortgages, and insurance companies’ capital requirements – to explain just what officials hope to achieve.They then round things off with a chat about the latest developments in the US-China trade war, and touch on China’s plan to double down on exports in the years ahead.Enjoy!

In this week’s podcast, Trivium co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver examine Beijing’s latest thinking on trade tensions with the US – as both sides settle in for a sustained confrontation. The two discuss:Whether Beijing has Trump’s numberThe shifting narrative on China’s ability to sustain hostilitiesConflicting reports as to whether China and the US are actively negotiatingChina’s patient approach to stimulus – with the recent Politburo meeting opting not to provide additional domestic economic supportThe Politburo study session on AI – and how China is trying to position itself globallyAs always, there’s lots to chew on!

In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined again by Cory Combs, Trivium’s head of supply chain research, to unpack the latest US-China trade war twists. The two discuss:Friday’s pause in the tariff escalationChina’s pointed efforts to signal it won’t escalate furtherWhether the pause has staying powerWhy a painful stalemate is still far better than some of the alternativesThe two then examine China’s latest export controls on rare earth elements.Cory breaks down the key dynamics, implications for companies, and what to expect next.

In this week’s Trivium China podcast, Trivium co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver unpack the whirlwind tariff tit-for-tat between the US and China over the past week.The two discuss:Whether we are now locked in an unstoppable escalatory spiralPossible off-ramps for de-escalationHow each side is misreading the otherThe best- and worst-case scenarios from hereChina’s likely policy support for the domestic economy amid sky-high tariffsBuckle up!

In this week’s podcast, Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk links up with Trivium Co-founder Trey McArver. The two:Pick up on last week’s conversation about foreign businesses in China, walking through Xi Jinping’s big meeting with foreign CEOs on FridayDiscuss China’s intervention in the Panama port deal between BlackRock and CK HutchisonPreview China’s likely response to Trump’s Liberation Day tariffsThen Andrew speaks with Trivium’s Head of China Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to get into Beijing’s latest efforts to develop flying car technology.This one covers a lot of ground – and you won’t want to miss any of it.

This week, Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk sat down in Shanghai with fellow Co-founder Ether Yin and Trivium’s Head of Geopolitical Research Joe Mazur to discuss:Global businesses in Beijing for the China Development ForumThe messages Chinese leaders are sending to the business communityThe stark contrast in mood between domestic and foreign businesses in ChinaWhether consumer sentiment is finally turning a cornerBeijing’s latest updates to the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law

In this week’s podcast, Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Director of China Ag Research Even Pay. The two first discuss the biggest policy move out of China over the last week:·       Beijing’s big new plan to boost consumption this yearSpoiler alert: There’s a lot in the plan, but we’re still skeptical it will be enough to get consumers to pull out their wallets any time soon. Andrew and Even then discuss how all the latest moves in the US-China trade war are impacting China’s ag sector – and Xi Jinping’s view of food security. ·       They also touch on what may be coming next on the ag, food security, and trade fronts. Enjoy!

That’s a wrap, folks! The Two Sessions officially concluded in Beijing on Tuesday – just in time for this week’s podcast.To begin the pod, Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by fellow Co-founder Trey McArver to break down the key policy themes from the meetings – through the lens of Xi Jinping’s itinerary.Spoiler alert: It’s pretty much all about innovation.But wait, there’s more! We round out the pod with a special discussion of the evolving critical minerals race with Lewis Black, co-founder and CEO of Almonty Industries, the world’s largest non-Chinese tungsten miner.Lewis joins Andrew and Cory Combs, Trivium’s Head of Critical Minerals and Supply Chain Research, to examine supply chain geopolitics and its impacts on economic and national security.Needless to say, Lewis has some unique insights to share on:How the West became "addicted to the simplicity" of Chinese supply chainsWhy the 2008 financial crisis should have been a wake-up call in the crit-min spaceWhy disparities between commercial and national interests mean the US simply can’t build out critical supply chains in the same way China hasHow he would advise the US to approach diversificationYou won’t want to miss a minute.

The wait is over: China’s annual policy extravaganza, the Two Sessions, kicked off in Beijing on March 4.In our latest podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, head of markets research, unpack the key economic targets in Premier Li Qiang’s Government Work Report.Given the economic headwinds – sluggish consumer demand, deflationary pressures, ongoing property sector woes, and an escalating trade war with the US – the stakes are high for getting the policy settings right.The gents kick things off by analyzing the implications of the 2025 GDP, inflation, and budget deficit targets for China’s economic prospects.They then dig into the spending and borrowing targets for the year ahead.Spoiler alert: There are some big numbers, but there’s less here than meets the eye.Finally, they wrap up with a quick discussion of China’s rapid-fire response to the second round of Trump tariffs.And this BIG: With this podcast episode, we are officially joining the Sinica Podcast Network. Following Dinny and Andrew's conversation, stay tuned for a follow up conversation between Trivium China Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver, and the man behind Sinica, Kaiser Kuo.It's a great discussion, and we're all excited about the new pod partnership!

The firehose of tech-related China policy developments has been at full blast over the past few weeks.And as always, Trivium is here to break down all the latest.In this week’s podcast, Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium Partner and Head of Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to discuss:Xi Jinping’s recent confab with private-sector tech executivesWhat the meeting portends for private companies’ future role in advancing China’s tech ambitionsThe recent bevy of AI infrastructure investment announcements out of ChinaHow the recent DeepSeek revelation is driving it allChina’s likely response to Trump’s America First Investment PolicyThey also touch on whether “another DeepSeek” is lurking somewhere in China’s AI ecosystem, just waiting to be discovered – and how to find it.If we do say so ourselves: This one is a can’t-miss, folks.We hope you enjoy the discussion as much as we did.We’ll have a lot more on all these topics in future episodes.