The Trivium China Podcast

China’s July macro data just landed, and the title of our monthly macro note says it all: “A Grim Picture.”Consumption, investment, and property all deteriorated further last month – and the two props that supported the economy in the first half of the year are now fading fast.On this episode, Trivium China podcast host Andrew Polk sits down with Joe Peissel (Lead Macro Analyst) to unpack:How July’s slowdown was broad-based, across nearly every metric that matters – and why growth looks even worse than the headlines suggestHow the K-shaped economy has spread from output into investment flows, entrenching the divide between booming and struggling sectorsWhy deflation, not inflation, remains the real danger for a heavily indebted economy like China’s – as officials are having to quietly pick their poisonWhy even China’s 24% y/y export growth print obscures a much less impressive reality, once you separate price from volume

Chinese companies can’t legally buy the most advanced US-made AI chips, so they’re renting them instead – from data centers in Thailand, Malaysia, and beyond – completely legally.US policymakers know about the issue – but several years into the implementation of export controls on advanced chips, they still haven’t closed it.And there’s a reason for that.On this episode of the Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk sits down with Tom Nunlist (Associate Director, Tech Practice, Shanghai) to unpack:How Kimi K3’s release forced Washington to confront a loophole in export controls it’s known about for agesWhy renting chips sits completely outside the rules that govern buying them, even when the end result is identicalWhy closing this gap risks a “double win” for Beijing: 1) marketing material to court the Global South with China’s AI stack and 2) and potential leverage to retaliate with rare earths, ultimately causing the US to back downWhy cutting off compute access could undermine trust in the US AI stack, like sanctions have eroded trust in the US dollar – and why that risk may be exactly what’s keeping policymakers’ finger off the trigger

When it comes to China’s key nodes of economic leverage, rare earths get all the attention – because they’re the cheapest, easiest lever China has to pull.But the more durable – and future – points of leverage are already hiding in plain sight, in hundreds of intermediate goods most people never think about.Gerard DiPippo, Director of Global Macro at Eurasia Group, returns to the pod as our first ever two-time guest, joined by Dinny McMahon and Cory Combs, to unpack it.On this episode, host Andrew Polk sits down with Gerard, Dinny, and Cory to dive into:Why rare earths are a uniquely cheap and low-cost weapon for Beijing, and why other chokepoints like batteries carry far higher stakesHow China’s licensing regime doubles as a surveillance system, giving Beijing visibility into global supply chains it can use to ratchet pressure up or down at willThe “shoe that hasn’t dropped yet”: China’s shelved extraterritorial rule that could restrict any product containing Chinese-origin content, anywhere in the worldWhy intermediate goods are the next frontier to watch, and why China’s reaction function gets a lot murkier once controls move further down the production chain – into products with real commercial value to Chinese firms themselvesIt’s another great discussion – so enjoy!

On August 5th, China dropped a new batch of retaliatory economic measures against various US entities.And this time, officials did something they rarely do – naming exactly which US actions they were responding to and why.On this episode of the Trivium China Podcast, Andrew Polk sits down with Cory Combs (Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research) to unpack:What exactly landed in MofCom’s four-part policy package – from countersanctions on US biotech and compliance firms to China’s first ever foreign-trade national security investigationWhy this round of retaliation was aimed squarely at the FCC and DHS, and how it traces back to actions on robotics, drones, and forced-labor sanctionsWhether Beijing’s unusually direct language about the Busan detente is a warning shot or a sign the deal is really at riskWhy neither side seems ready to blow up the agreement just yet, even as both keep testing its edges

US policymakers are constantly discussing whether America can leapfrog China in key technologies.Our answer: probably not, and batteries prove it.In fact, the real question isn't whether the US can – or even should – try to outpace China in at least some advanced tech; it's whether the West can afford not to learn from China.On this podcast episode, Andrew Polk sits down with Cory Combs (Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research) to unpack:Why China is placing simultaneous bets on LFP, sodium-ion, and solid-state batteries, and what that "multi-modal" strategy reveals about how it actually innovatesHow brutal domestic competition, not central planning, is driving some of China's biggest technological breakthroughsWhy Beijing tolerates crushing margin pressure on its own battery makers, and what it's betting that pain buysThe uncomfortable case for the US actually licensing "second-best" Chinese tech, rather than racing to rebuild it from scratch

Beijing just released its most detailed rebuttal yet to accusations from the West around industrial overcapacity – and it pointedly avoided using the very word that started the fight in the first place.There’s a reason for that, and we break it all down in today’s podcast.On this episode, Andrew Polk sits down with Dinny McMahon (Head of Markets Research) to unpack:The five core arguments in MOFCOM’s new position paper on overcapacity, examining which ones hold up and which ones stretch too farWhy Beijing dropped the word “overcapacity” for “involution” 18 months ago, and what that rhetorical swap is designed to doHow China frames itself as both free trade’s champion and its victim, and why that framing leaves little room for compromiseWhy the US may have the least at stake here economically, and why Europe is where this fight actually gets decidedAs always, we hope you enjoy the discussion – reach out and let us know any thoughts or feedback.

China's July Politburo meeting is always a big one, as the leadership takes stock of the economy and signals policy adjustments for the second half of the year.In this year’s July meeting, officials clearly signaled that more fiscal support is on the way, but only in modest amounts.Note: This is our second short format episode – tighter, quick-turnaround reactions to the news as it breaks, alongside our regular weekly deep dives.Let us know what you think about the new format!On this episode, Andrew Polk sits down with Dinny McMahon (Trivium’s Head of Markets Research) to unpack:How this July Politburo readout offered surprisingly clear language that more fiscal support is coming, and in what formWhat "fiscal-financial cooperation" means in practice, and why it's really code for interest rate subsidiesWhy Beijing is likely to lean on accelerated special-purpose bond issuance – and a probable Q4 top-up, following last year's playbook – rather than broad interest rate cutsWhy none of this changes the underlying story: Beijing is deliberately riding out a long, painful real estate adjustment – and this is just a slight pick-me-up

A leaked, four-hour investor call with DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng has been spreading like wildfire on the Chinese internet over the past few days – before links to it started disappearing – and Trivium's Bao Linghao joined the pod to give it a Friday-morning stress test.His verdict: The transcript seems legit, and it tracks with everything else we know about how the lab operates.Quick note: This is another one of our shorter, quick-turnaround episodes – where Andrew grabs an analyst for their unfiltered take on something breaking in the news, alongside our regular weekly deep dives.On this episode, Andrew Polk sits down with Trivium Tech Analyst Bao Linghao (Shanghai) to unpack:Why DeepSeek's "no KPIs, no organization" culture is likely genuine rather than an investor pitch, and how a market-based valuation helps retain talentWhether DeepSeek's open-source commitment survives once – or if – it actually leads the frontier, given the pull to cash in once you get thereWhat Liang's "restraint" framing on pricing really means, and how DeepSeek's infrastructure edge lets it stay cheap without bleeding marginWhy Kimi K3's release upended assumptions about the US-China compute gap, and how "bench-maxxing" has muddied claims about how close Chinese models really areWhether China's crowded field of base-model labs is finally headed for real consolidationGive it a listen and let us know what you think.

Beijing is moving to restrict how far its own open-source AI models can travel abroad, just as Washington moves to restrict how far they can travel in.Same standoff, squeezing from opposite ends of the pipeline.Quick note: This episode is the first of a new, more frequent style of podcast we're rolling out – shorter, faster-turnaround conversations to react to the news as it breaks, alongside our regular weekly deep dives.Look for more of these in your feed soon.On this episode, Andrew Polk sits down with Kendra Schaefer (Head of Tech Policy Research) to unpack:Why MOFCOM's reported talks with Alibaba, ByteDance, and Zhipu on export controls could reshape how Chinese model weights get releasedThe three priorities Beijing is trying to balance: model competitiveness, security risk, and controllabilityHow Kimi K3's release has intensified US anxiety, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent floating possible sanctions over model distillationWhat Xi's WAIC speech signals about China staying committed to open source while tightening the regulatory leashGive it a listen and let us know what you think.

China is stepping in to prop up its stock market, quietly opening the door to more outbound investment, and easing off the credit gas – all at once.Coincidence? We don't think so.On this week's Trivium China Podcast, Andrew Polk sits down with Dinny McMahon (Head of Markets Research) and Joe Peissel (Lead Macro Analyst) to unpack:Why the "national team" bought A-shares after last month's selloff, and why this intervention was smaller than last year’sWhat SAFE's move to regularize QDII quotas signals about RMB internationalizationThe quiet PBOC move to curb bankers' acceptances, and what it tells us about Beijing's deleveraging playbookWhat the latest GDP and trade data say about China's widening "K-shaped" economyTune in for the full breakdown.And while you're at it, make sure to check out Dinny's latest note on the pivot to deleveraging here. You won't regret it!

Data has become one of the most important inputs in the modern economy, especially as access to high-quality information increasingly shapes the global race to develop artificial intelligence.But while US policymakers tend to view data primarily through a national security lens, Beijing is pursuing a much broader strategy aimed at unlocking data’s economic value.On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to explore why China has formally designated data as a “factor of production” – and how that idea is reshaping the country’s technology and economic policies.The two discuss:Why low-cost Chinese open-source AI models are increasingly attractive to Western companiesHow restricting access to those models could undermine US competitivenessWhat Beijing means when it describes data as the economy’s fifth factor of productionChina’s efforts to make data easier to find, price, trade, and use as collateralWhy Beijing views data security rules as necessary guardrails for a functioning data marketHow China’s approach could strengthen its AI ecosystem by increasing the supply of high-quality dataAndrew and Kendra also examine the absence of a coherent, pro-growth US data strategy – and why Washington’s overwhelming focus on security risks may be leaving significant economic gains on the table.Overall, the discussion reveals that China’s seemingly disparate data policies are part of a much larger project: building the infrastructure needed to turn data into a more productive and widely traded economic asset.

China’s economy has lost momentum after a surprisingly strong start to the year.But while many analysts are asking why Beijing isn’t doing more to stimulate growth, this week’s Trivium China Podcast explores a different question: why are policymakers deliberately choosing not to?Pod host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Markets Research Dinny McMahon to examine why Beijing may be quietly embarking on its first genuine economy-wide deleveraging effort in years, and what that could mean for China’s growth model.The two discuss:Why recent weakness in investment, consumption, and the property sector won’t trigger a major stimulus packageWhether Beijing’s annual fiscal "stimulus" has become more theater than meaningful economic supportHow slowing credit growth could signal a deliberate shift in macroeconomic strategyWhy strong exports and rising inflation may have created a rare opportunity to reduce leverageWhy policymakers appear to be prioritizing future borrowing capacity over stronger short-term growthAndrew and Dinny also explore what slower credit growth means for businesses and investors and how Beijing's evolving priorities could complicate trade negotiations with Europe and other major trade partners.

China’s economy started 2026 with surprising momentum – but the latest monthly macro data underscores that many of the country’s underlying challenges remain firmly in place.On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Lead Macro Analyst Joe Peissel to unpack the latest economic data and what it reveals about the increasingly uneven nature of China’s growth story.The two discuss:Why China’s economy is increasingly operating on “two tracks”The continued boom in AI, semiconductors, clean energy, and export-oriented manufacturingWhy much of the rest of the manufacturing sector is strugglingThe first year-on-year decline in retail sales since the pandemicWhat collapsing auto sales reveal about the limits of Beijing’s trade-in subsidy programWhy consumer confidence continues to deteriorate despite policy supportAndrew and Joe also examine the growing constraints on policymakers as fiscal pressures mount across the country.Overall, the discussion reveals an economy that remains remarkably strong in a handful of strategic industries – but increasingly fragile everywhere else.

It’s been a busy few weeks for Chinese diplomacy, with Xi Jinping making a rare trip to North Korea while tensions between Beijing and Brussels continue to climb over trade, industrial policy, and the future of Europe’s manufacturing base.On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Geopolitical Research Joe Mazur and Head of Clean Energy and EV Research Cosimo Ries to unpack these two critically important developments in China’s external relations.First, Andrew and Joe break down Xi’s first trip to North Korea in nearly seven years and what it reveals about Beijing’s priorities amid shifting regional dynamics.The two discuss:Why Xi chose North Korea for his first foreign trip of 2026China’s complicated relationship with its only formal treaty allyHow North Korea’s growing ties with Russia are reshaping Beijing’s calculationsWhat practical outcomes may emerge from the visitThen, in the second half of the pod, Andrew, Joe, and Cosimo turn to Europe, where concerns about Chinese industrial competition are fueling calls for tougher trade and investment measures.The conversation covers:Whether “China Shock 2.0” is the right way to think about Europe’s challengesGrowing tensions between the EU and China over trade imbalances and industrial policyWhy clean energy, EVs, and advanced manufacturing sit at the center of the disputeHow Chinese companies are responding through localization and investment in EuropeWhether Europe and China are headed toward a full-blown trade war – or a prolonged period of managed frictionAs always, the guys cover a lot of ground, so sit back and enjoy!

China’s local governments have spent the past four years grappling with the fallout from the property market collapse. Land sales have dried up, fiscal pressures remain intense, and officials across the country are still searching for sustainable new sources of revenue.On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Markets Research Dinny McMahon to discuss one of the most important – and least understood – developments in China’s fiscal landscape: asset revitalization.The two unpack how local governments are increasingly turning underutilized state-owned assets into new revenue streams, and why the strategy may become a key pillar of Beijing’s broader effort to stabilize local finances.Their conversation covers:Why local governments remain under severe fiscal pressure after the collapse of the property marketWhat “asset revitalization” actually means in practiceHow provinces are monetizing everything from mining rights and industrial land to transport hubs and public facilitiesHow several local governments are already generating meaningful new revenue from the strategyThe role asset revitalization could play in easing local government austerity and supporting domestic demandThe risks of self-dealing, hidden leverage, and unsustainable one-off transactionsWhether asset revitalization can become a durable solution to China’s local government debt and revenue challengesWhile asset revitalization is unlikely to solve China’s fiscal problems on its own, Andrew and Dinny argue it may be emerging as one of the most important pieces of the local government finance puzzle – and a development investors and China watchers should be following closely.

This week on the Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Geopolitical Analysis Joe Mazur to unpack one of the most consequential – and potentially misunderstood – issues emerging from the recent Xi-Trump summit: Taiwan.While both Washington and Beijing have publicly insisted that little changed during the meeting, Joe argues that several comments from President Trump may signal a meaningful shift in how the White House approaches Taiwan – one that could introduce greater uncertainty into an already delicate cross-strait equilibrium.The conversation explores:Why Trump's comments on Taiwan have generated concern despite official claims of policy continuityWhether the administration is beginning to treat arms sales to Taiwan as a broader negotiating tool in US-China relationsHow Beijing may interpret Trump's increasingly transactional approach to TaiwanWhy even a simple phone call between Trump and Taiwan leader Lai Ching-te could trigger a major response from ChinaThe key signals analysts should watch for to determine whether Beijing's Taiwan policy is truly changingThen, in the second half of the episode, Andrew is joined by Trivium’s Head of Markets Research Dinny McMahon to examine an emerging priority in Beijing's economic strategy: "producer services." While the term may sound obscure, Dinny argues it sits at the heart of China's effort to move up the global value chain and build world-leading companies.Their discussion covers:What producer services are and why Chinese policymakers are suddenly focused on themHow Beijing hopes to create more Chinese versions of companies like Apple and NVIDIAWhy Xi Jinping increasingly sees services as a way to strengthen – rather than replace – manufacturingThe role of design, engineering, R&D, logistics, and branding in China's next stage of industrial developmentHow producer services could help address China's youth unemployment challengeWhether AI will undermine Beijing's plans to create more high-value white-collar jobsTaken together, the two conversations offer a window into how China's leaders are thinking about both the country's most sensitive geopolitical challenge and the next phase of its economic transformation.

It’s been a consequential week for US-China relations, as Xi Jinping and Donald Trump finally held their long-awaited summit in Beijing amid ongoing trade tensions, export control battles, and the fallout from the Iran war.On the first half of this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by special guest Jon Czin – the Michael H. Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies and a fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution – to unpack what came out of the Xi-Trump meeting, what both sides were trying to accomplish, and where the relationship may go next.Jon gets into:Why the current US-China situation is more temporary stalemate than budding stability  China’s evolving strategy for managing Trump and the broader bilateral relationshipThe significance of Beijing’s proposed framework for “Constructive Strategic Stability”How China views US leverage – and its own leverage – in trade, critical minerals, and supply chainsHow the Iran war is shaping the broader geopolitical context for US-China diplomacyThen in the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by Trivium’s lead macroeconomic analyst Joe Peissel to break down the latest batch of Chinese macro data, which showed a sharp slowdown in economic activity in April.The two discuss:How the Iran war and supply chain disruptions are weighing on China’s industrial sectorWhy investment activity weakened more than expected last monthThe hidden policy changes dragging on infrastructure investmentContinued weakness in Chinese consumption and consumer confidenceWhat the latest data means for Beijing’s broader economic outlook

The long-awaited Xi Jinping–Donald Trump meeting has finally happened – but what, exactly, came out of it?On the first part of this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research Cory Combs to unpack the immediate takeaways from the leaders’ summit in Beijing.The two discuss:Why the meeting was heavy on symbolism but light on concrete outcomes The significance of China’s high-level diplomatic treatment of Trump What to watch for on export controls and a possible extension of the Busan agreement The prospects for a future “board of investment” mechanism governing US-China capital flows How Iran and the Strait of Hormuz factored into the talks Andrew and Cory also assess why both sides appear eager to stabilize relations – even if major structural tensions remain unresolved.Then in the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by Trivium’s Head of Markets Research Dinny McMahon to break down the PBoC’s latest quarterly monetary policy report and what it reveals about Beijing’s economic priorities.The two discuss:Why the PBoC is signaling greater concern about currency stability How the Iran war is reshaping China’s monetary policy calculus Why interest rate cuts may now be less likely in 2026 Potential reforms to how mortgages are priced in China Beijing’s intellectual defense of its export-led growth model 

It’s been another consequential week for China’s economy and foreign policy – with Beijing deploying its blocking rules for the first time ever in response to new US sanctions tied to Iranian oil purchases.On the first half of this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research Cory Combs to unpack what China’s latest legal and regulatory moves mean for the future of US-China economic competition and sanctions enforcement.The two discuss:China’s first-ever use of its blocking rulesWhy Beijing reacted so strongly to new US sanctions on Chinese refinersThe growing risks facing banks and firms caught between US and Chinese legal systemsHow China’s broader counter-sanctions toolkit is evolvingWhy uncertainty itself may be part of Beijing’s strategyThen in the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by Trivium’s Head of Markets Research Dinny McMahon and Lead Macro Analyst Joe Peissel to break down the latest signals from China’s economy following a surprisingly strong Q1.The three discuss:Why China’s economy outperformed expectations early in the yearHow the Iran war is affecting inflation, exports, and industrial costsBeijing’s renewed push on infrastructure investmentWhy consumption remains the economy’s weakest linkWhether China’s export machine can continue powering growth through the rest of 2026Together, the conversations offer a timely look at how Beijing is navigating mounting geopolitical pressure while trying to keep the economy on track.

What happens when a Chinese AI startup tries to sell itself to a major US tech company, but Beijing decides it doesn’t like the deal?In this week’s episode, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to unpack the latest in the Meta-Manus acquisition saga and what it reveals about China’s evolving approach to tech regulation and national security.The two discuss:Why Chinese regulators ordered the Meta-Manus deal unwoundHow Beijing is using dormant foreign investment review powers in new waysThe role of VIE structures and “Singapore washing” in cross-border tech dealsChina’s growing concerns around technology outflowWhat this all means for Chinese startups, founders, and the future of US-China tech competitionAndrew and Kendra also explore how both Washington and Beijing are increasingly converging around the same core question: who gets to control strategically important technology?

With the Xi-Trump meeting looming and the Iran situation changing every hour, how are China and the US trying to secure their respective interests?This week, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk and Head of Supply Chain Research Cory Combs break down key dynamics – from:The evolving impacts of the Iran war and China's responsesChina's latest supply chain and anti-foreign coercion policiesThe US's ongoing mass-diversification push amid Chinese export controlsUS-China strategy as the leadership meeting approachesAnd more!With both Andrew and Cory having just returned from ~6 weeks of travel, they take stock in a wide-ranging conversation – with many questions, but also a few proposed answers.

China's economy started the year off on the front foot – but fragilities remain just below the surface, and the war in Iran may put that early positive momentum to the test.To discuss the latest dynamics driving the economy, and the potential…erm…hiccups it may face in the coming months, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk is joined this week by two seasoned economists:Beijing-based China Economist at the Standard Bank Group, Jeremy StevensAnd Trivium’s own lead macro-econ analyst, Joe PeisselThe three run through the latest monthly macro data, discuss where key vulnerabilities are lurking, and look ahead to how the Iran situation may upend things, if and as it drags on.

There’s only one storyline that matters geopolitically right now, and that’s the ongoing war between the US and Israel and Iran.Now in its third week, the war increasingly looks likely to be a protracted engagement, and as the conflict grinds on, the implications – both political and economic – for the many countries not involved in the fighting will become clearer.China, of course, has a wide-range of interests – both short- and long-term – that will be impacted by the situation.To unpack the thinking around all of this in Beijing, Trivium China Podcast host Andrew Polk is joined on this week’s episode by two of Trivium’s lead analysts on all things geopolitics, trade, and commodities – Joe Mazur and Even Pay.The trio gets into:China’s most immediate concerns – largely revolving around resource securityHow Beijing’s patient buildup of commodity reserves over the past decade has now been vindicatedWhether Xi Jinping and company see any strategic upside from the confrontationWhat, if anything, Beijing can do to influence the outcomeAnd what it all means – in China’s view – for the longer-term evolution of the geopolitical systemIt’s another banger folks – you won’t want to miss it.

On this week’s edition of the Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is back with a gaggle of Trivium analysts to go deep on various aspects of the recently released 15th Five Year Plan (FYP).The group covers a broad range of issues including:Key macroeconomic, development, and economic security goalsThe plan for industrial upgrading – and key priorities in upstream, midstream, and downstream industriesThe nexus of technological and industrial ambitionHow climate goals and industrial policy interactChina’s latest efforts to solve its compute problemHow innovation factors into goals for the healthcare and agriculture sectorsJust like the FYP itself, this conversation is wide-ranging and hits on a bunch of key policy themes that matter – both now and in the years ahead.

It’s been a big week in China, with the annual government meetings (aka the Two Sessions) kicking off to lay out key policy priorities for the year – and to drop a draft version of the 15th Five Year Plan (FYP).There’s a ton of policy to wade through in both the annual government work reports and the FYP – from macro, to tech, to healthcare, to bio-manufacturing, and more.On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by six different Trivium policy specialists to walk through their initial takes on what matters most in latest releases.Then on the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by Ilaria Mazzocco, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow with the Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, to discuss all the latest in the China electric vehicle (EV) space. Ilaria gets into:Successes and failures of Chinese industrial policy in supporting EVsThe role of the private sector in realizing China’s EV dominanceHow countries throughout the world are responding to the Chinese EV juggernaut – from the US, to the EU, to a range of emerging markets – as they seek to protect or grow their own advanced manufacturing capabilitiesHow it all plays into various national conceptions of economic security – in both China and the WestThe conversation is a must listen for anyone who cares about the future of global electrification, as well as issues of economic security.

2026 has kicked off with a geopolitical bang – from US intervention in Venezuela to threats against Greenland to potential military action against Iran, not to mention the latest tariff turmoil following last week’s US Supreme Court ruling.All of this volatility – and what it might say about the role the US will play in the world going forward – can lead to some pretty lazy assumptions that China will automatically benefit by easily positioning itself as a stabilizing global force. But reality is more complicated: Chinese leaders are likely just as befuddled by the rapidly changing landscape as their counterparts in NATO.On this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk sits down with Jude Blanchette, director of the RAND China Research Center, to unpack how China actually sees “The Rupture” in global politics.This is a conversation you won’t want to miss.But wait, there’s more! Before talking with Jude, Andrew is joined by Trivium’s Head of Markets Research Dinny McMahon to discuss Beijing‘s recent focus on the need to “invest in people,” and the step-change that might signal for the buildout of China’s welfare state during the next five-year plan period.

It's been a while between trips, but last week Trivium's Head of Markets Research, Dinny McMahon, was back in Beijing.In this podcast, he and Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk discuss Dinny's observations and takeaways from the trip.After dissecting the vibe on the street, the gents get into:Where there might be some potential for investment growth this yearWhy the only thing that will unlock household spending is a housing market recoveryThis one is short and sweet, so please enjoy this fun-sized pod. And a note to listeners: The pod will be off for the Lunar New Year next week.But we'll be back in your feeds after the holiday with some exciting new content, so stay tuned!

US-China bilateral relations have, surprisingly, been an anchor of calm amidst a sea of geopolitical uncertainty in the opening innings of 2026.And increasingly, it looks like the seemingly fragile truce between the two countries will prove more resilient that it initially seemed – back when US President Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to a trade war détente in November.To discuss the state of play – and where things might be going – Trivium China pod host Andrew Polk is joined this week by Joe Mazur (Head of Geopolitical Research) and Even Pay (Head of Ag and Trade Policy Research).The trio discuss:The notable shift in tone and approach from the Trump administration toward ChinaThe latest Xi-Trump call, which took place this weekThe upcoming visit to China by Donald Trump, which is set for AprilWhether America’s more aggressive policy in the Western Hemisphere is hurting or helping China’s interests in the regionThen Andrew and Even go deep on the most important domestic policy development of the week, the release of the 2026 No. 1 Document, which outlines ag policy priorities for the year.They touch on:Why ag and rural policies are so important to Party leadersThe shift toward boosting efficiency and productivity in the ag sector – as part of Xi’s wider promotion of New Quality Productive ForcesRecent adjustments to ag and rural policy funding arrangements, and what they might mean for China’s non-urban areas

On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, host Andrew Polk speaks with our lead macro-econ analyst, Joe Peissel, to take a quick temperature check of China’s latest macro data.The two discuss:What the full-year 2025 data (released in mid-Jan) tells us about the state of play and the likely economic trajectory for 2026How the constituent parts of the economy – consumption, investment, and exports – are faringWhether the export machine can possibly go from strength to strength in 2026Then Andrew is joined by pod regulars Dinny McMahon (Head of Markets Research) and Cory Combs (Head of Supply Chain and Critical Minerals Research) to examine the enduring headwinds to capital expenditure in China.They get into:Whether the cratering in fixed asset investment (FAI) growth in H2 2025 was a one-off or is the new normal (spoiler alert: it’s probably the latter)Prospects for investment in a couple of key industries – autos and renewable energyHow government policy might address the investment slideAnd where infrastructure spending fits in – particularly energy infrastructure, as it relates to the recently released massive spending plan from State GridIt’s another wonk-fest, so lap it up you China nerds.

China’s financial regulators have started 2026 with a flurry of activity.On January 14, the securities regulator raised margin requirements on stock trading in a bid to cool investors’ exuberance.The following day the central bank expanded a bunch of its relending facilities, and cut the interest rate on all of its structural lending tools.Then on January 20, the finance ministry rolled out a bunch of measures designed to bolster investment by small, private sector firms.What’s driving this hyperactive policymaking? That’s what Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss on the first Trivium podcast of 2026.They look at:How weak Q4 economic data has lit a fire under regulatorsWhy authorities have settled on this particular combination of policiesAnd what signals Beijing is trying to send marketsBut wait, there’s more! On the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by a new guest to the podcast, Trivium’s lead AI and semiconductor analyst Linghao Bao. Linghao joins to discuss:Beijing’s intervention in Meta’s recently announced acquisition of Chinese AI start-up ManusThe specific regulatory tools China is using to slow – or maybe even stop – the dealThe wider implications for China’s AI start-up ecosystemThe gents cover a lot of ground in this one – enjoy!

November economic data was a bit of a letdown, suggesting China’s economy is rapidly losing growth momentum.Fixed asset investment declined by double digitsIndustrial output grew at its slowest rate in 15 monthsRetail sales of consumer goods grew at the slowest rate in three yearsBut things aren’t as bad as they seem.This week, host Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s lead macro-econ analyst Joe Peissel to dig into November’s economic data. The gents cover:China’s supply-side slowdown, and why it’s partially policy-drivenWhy China’s consumption dynamics are more resilient than headline data suggestThe reason Beijing appears willing to tolerate a slight economic correctionAndrew and Joe then round things off by discussing China’s policy and economic outlook going into 2026.

As the new year approaches, governments, corporations, and investors alike are asking: what will critical material supply chains look like in the year to come?In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Cory Combs, Head of Critical Mineral and Supply Chain Research, discuss where global supply chains and diversification efforts stand today – and how they are likely to shape up in 2026.Starting from the latest need-to-know specifics and working up to the broader strategic takes from Team Trivium, the lads discuss:What's going on with China's general licenses and export trendsTrends and issues in US rare earth and broader critical mineral diversification efforts – including our take on the brand new international "Pax Silica" initiativeHow the rest of the world is responding to all this, both reactively and proactivelyHow China is responding to global diversification efforts – including where it is and is not pushing back, and whyPutting it all together, they take a stab at framing the bigger strategic issues ahead.We've all heard plenty about the tactics of supply chain decoupling – e.g., China's from US chips and Dutch lithography machines, and the US's from China's processed critical mineralsBut this all begs key questions, like: What is a desirable end state for both sides? And what does "security" actually look like? (Hint: it's not full decoupling.)Despite the fierce problems at hand, the gents land on a surprisingly optimistic vision of where US-China relations could land in the next few years – a happy note on which to enter the holidays after a tumultuous year.

At the end of each year, China's top economic policymakers get together for the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) to discuss their goals for the year ahead.This year's CEWC wrapped up on December 11, and in this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, get together to discuss the ins-and-outs of the meeting's official readout.Warning: The readout from the CEWC is invariably a big-picture policy document that's frustratingly thin on detail.Deciphering what the leadership means takes a little bit of reading between the lines.And that's exactly what the gents do!They start off with their 30,000-foot takeaways (TL;DR: Beijing envisions 2026 looking a lot like 2025).Then they get into:Where we might expect extra government spendingWhether Beijing will double-down on the consumer goods trade-in programHow Beijing intends to boost consumption

In mid-2024, Beijing rebranded its overcapacity problems as “involution.” Does it matter? As the bard would say, a rose by any other name…And yet, over time it’s become clear that this was more than just a rebranding exercise. Along with the change in name came a subtle shift in how Beijing perceives its overcapacity problems – a shift that has important policy implications.In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, talk all things involution. The gents discuss:How the concept of involution differs from that of overcapacityWhy Beijing doesn’t think overcapacity can exist in a global free marketWhat Beijing’s anti-involution efforts look likeAnd what it all means for the rest of the worldThen, Andrew wraps things up with a brief rundown of the most recent developments in the US-China trade truce.

On this week’s Trivium China Podcast, your loyal Trivium team digs into China’s key domestic and regional developments from the past few days.First, Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver discuss:The Party’s latest conference on law-based governance – and what it tells about how Xi Jinping views China’s legal and regulatory systemsXi’s motivations in refreshing and solidifying the various rules that govern Party and government behaviorChina’s related efforts to build out its foreign-facing legal toolkitThe gents then move on to examine the intensifying diplomatic row between China and Japan – and why both sides are unlikely to climb down.Then, in the second half of the pod, Andrew is joined by Trivium’s lead macro-econ analyst Joe Peissel to discuss:The recent, and curious, drop-off in fixed asset investment (FAI) in China, why it’s happening, and what it means for the wider macro-economic growth trajectory heading into 2026Fair warning: This one gets pretty wonky!

With the US and China having agreed to a détente over trade, now is a good time to take a step back from the day-to-day back-and-forth of measures and countermeasure, and look at the longer term implications of China’s new economic model for trade.In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, kick off by discussing China’s surprisingly bleak October economic data, before wading into big picture trade issues.They discuss:How China intends to maintain export growth in the face of rising trade tensionsWhether the world is facing a China Shock 2.0, and how it will differ from the first China ShockAnd how countries might adapt to expanding exports of Chinese advanced manufactured goods

Confusion around what China has officially agreed to in terms of pausing its rare earths, and other critical mineral, export controls persists – even as we are a week out from Donald Trump and Xi Jinping’s trade agreement in South Korea.Significant discrepancies remain between official statements from the White House and China’s Ministry of Commerce on the issue.Meanwhile, officials and commercial players on both sides of the Pacific are reporting significant differences around their expectations for how quickly, and abundantly, rare earths and other critical minerals will flow from China.In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by his colleague Cory Combs to lay out their latest understanding of the issue. The two discuss:The key discrepancies between US and Chinese statements on the export control pauseHow political messaging from the White House is adding to the confusion for businessesAnd whether the political will exists for both sides to fully align on the details – and to maintain the trade ceasefire for a full yearAndrew and Cory then move on to examine the growing debate in Washington around how quickly the US can fully end its reliance on China for rare earth supplies. Cory gets into:What a realistic timeline for ending reliance on China would look likeThe reasons the US found itself in this situation in the first placeBenchmarking how quickly China can build new rare earths processing facilities – as a baseline for the potential US build outThe highly technical aspects of rare earths processing that will ultimately determine success or failureIt’s another fascinating discussion from the fine folks on the Trivium team – you won’t want to miss it!Also, check out this excellent paper by Jessica DiCarlo, Cory Combs, and Raphael Deberdt that Cory mentions in the show: Fractured Extraction: Mining Firms, Provinces and Municipalities in the Decentralized Politics of China’s Rare Earth Production

It was another monumental week on the China front.On Tuesday, the Party released its sprawling 15th Five Year Plan (FYP) Proposals – laying out the sheer scale of Xi Jinping’s policy ambitions over the next half-decadeThen on Thursday, Xi and US President Donald Trump got together in South Korea – their first meeting in six years – and agreed to a year-long ceasefire in the trade warIn this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by colleagues Kendra Schaefer and Dinny McMahon to break it all down.That’s right folks, this episode is a two-fer.Andrew and Kendra start off by discussing:The details of the trade agreement, as we know themWhat China thinks it got out of the dealThe pros and cons of the one-year timeframeFuture tripwires that could set things back on an escalatory spiralKendra then touches on her key takeaways from the 15th FYP Proposals, when it comes to China’s tech ambitions, before Dinny joins the pod to walk through:The headline macro takeaways from the FYP ProposalsChinese leaders’ sense of urgency over the next five yearsHow policymakers are thinking about consumption’s role in the economyChina’s more assertive position on the world stageIt’s another solid episode, folks, so enjoy!

Alright folks, this one is a banger.In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined first by colleagues Dinny McMahon and Joe Peissel. The three discuss:The most recent China macro dataEconomic headwinds and tailwinds as we move into 2026Their early read of the 4th Plenum – and Xi Jinping’s make or break moment with the upcoming Five-Year PlanAndrew is then joined by a very special guest – US-China Business Council President Sean Stein. They get into:How US businesses are navigating the uncertainty of the US-China relationshipHow the fentanyl issue offers the most promising path toward building trustThe impact of the BIS’ new 50% rule on corporate complianceWhy US companies still value the China market (The reasons might surprise you!)It’s so good you’ll want to listen to it twice.By the by: The fellas mention this report in the pod, which is very much worth checking out, as well: China’s Economic Transition: Debt, Demography, Deglobalization, and Scenarios for 2035

It’s been a frenetic and exhausting couple of weeks on the US-China front.After tensions heightened again last week – in the wake of China’s major expansion of export controls – the two sides continued to jockey, both privately and publicly, over the past few days.At this point, it appears that both sides are willing to continue negotiating – but the current state of the relationship is very fragile and will remain highly volatile.To discuss where things currently stand, how we got here, and where we are going, this week’s pod features Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver.The gents get into everything we know, everything we think we know, and everything we definitely don’t know about what’s next for US-China negotiations.

Policymakers in Beijing wasted no time getting back into the swing of things after the week-long October holiday.On Wednesday, officials at the Ministry of Commerce unveiled sweeping updates to China’s export control regime – with new controls on rare earths and lithium batteries in particular focus.The moves also further Beijing’s drive toward long-arm jurisdiction by applying some of the controls to companies globally – not simply those producing within China’s borders.Unsurprisingly, on Friday, US President Donald Trump responded to the move by applying a new 100% tariff to imports from China – and promised to implement an unspecified set of new export controls on US software.In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by Cory Combs, Trivium’s head of supply chain research, to go through it all. Specifically, the two discuss:The key details of China’s export control expansionWhat’s new, and what’s not in these controlsBeijing’s seeming motivation in implementing these controls now – which we argue goes beyond the immediate US-China trade negotiationsHow the near-term practical impacts of these controls are likely to be minimal – even if the medium-term implications are hugeWhether China has the capacity to enforce long-arm jurisdictionWhat all this means for ongoing US-China talksThe gents end the discussion by walking through Trivium’s work projecting which critical minerals are likely to be controlled next by China.For anyone who needs to stay ahead of the curve on China’s upcoming moves on this front – you’ll definitely want to listen to the end.

Tired of listening to the same old Trivium voices? Wishing for more variety in your podcast diet? Well, do we have a treat for you!In this week's podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, are joined by Gerard DiPippo, associate director at the RAND China Research Center and a senior researcher in RAND's D.C. office.Gerard is one of the sharpest minds out there when it comes to the global implications of what's happening in China's economy.The conversation starts with Gerard explaining what he means when he makes the observation that China's economy is currently "both strong and weak at the same time."The gents then discuss Gerard's recent work assessing where exports previously bound for the US are now heading, and also talk through how falling prices have managed to keep Chinese exports buoyant.Finally, they get into China's anti-involution push and where Beijing might be taking it.Interested in Gerard's work? We highly suggest you check out his recent piece for the China Leadership monitor, "Changing Course in a Storm: China’s Economy in the Trade War."

Chinese policymakers are looking to diffuse AI into key industrial, commercial, and governance fields as deeply and quickly as possible.The overarching framework for their approach is captured in the AI+ plus initiative.Officials published the overarching policy architecture for AI+ in late August.And more granular AI+X plans (e.g. AI+Energy, AI+Transportation) are now starting to roll out.In this week’s podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by colleagues Kendra Schaefer (head of tech policy research) and Cory Combs (head of critical mineral and supply chain research) to explain China’s AI+ approach.They delve into:The overarching AI+ framework – and how it differs from previous AI policies in ChinaThe six key fields that China is targeting for AI diffusionWhat to expect as the AI+ policy ecosystem takes shape in the months aheadChina’s AI+Energy plan – what it seeks to achieve and why it is so fundamental to the wider AI+ visionHow officials will approach more foundational aspects of AI+ – including foundational models, compute, data supply, developer ecosystems, and talentThe gang then wrap up the discussion by zeroing in on why the AI race is different from previous global competitions to produce technological breakthroughs.The key point: Achieving AI breakthroughs will look more like past pushes into electrification and the internet – as opposed to the nuclear weapon or space races.You’ll definitely want to stick around till the end for this one – enjoy!

For decades, China's economy was driven by debt-fueled construction of housing and infrastructure.But once the housing market collapsed in 2021, China needed to find a new growth model.The key parts of that new model are well known: Industrial upgradingAggressive export growthTechnological innovation What's less well understood is how these parts fit together, and how the new model might transform China in the coming decade – assuming it all works.For the past 18 months, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, have been working on a research project focused on understanding what type of economy Beijing is trying to build over the next decade, and how those efforts will be shaped by the challenges of high debt levels, a souring demographic profile, and the shifting forces of deglobalization. CSIS published that report – China’s Economic Transition: Debt, Demography, Deglobalization, and Scenarios for 2035 – at the beginning of September.In this podcast, the gents draw upon that research to explain what Beijing wants from its new growth model, how it's supposed to work, and how we might be able to tell if it's working.

China’s GDP growth has been unexpectedly strong this year. But paradoxically, tax revenue has been contracting.That’s not supposed to happen:Tax revenue typically falls during a recession, but not when the economy is expanding by more than 5% annually.In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Trivium’s Head of Markets Research, discuss the reasons behind China’s falling tax revenue, and why it matters – both in the short term and to Beijing’s longer-term economic aspirations.They then get into what Beijing is doing about it, and whether those efforts are likely to meaningfully boost badly needed tax receipts.

Xi Jinping’s growing diplomatic clout was on full display over the past week.Things kicked off in the Chinese port city of Tianjin, where Xi hosted the annual meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.The enduring image from that meeting will be a beaming Russian President Vladimir Putin, walking hand-in-hand with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi – just before the two shared a hearty laugh with Xi.Over the next several days, Xi hosted a spate of key bilateral meetings with Global South leaders – the one-on-ones with India and Russia (again), alongside Malaysia, Indonesia, and North Korea stood out as particularly notable.And of course, on Wednesday, many of those same leaders joined Xi in Beijing for a huge military parade to mark the 80th anniversary of the ending of the “Chinese People’s War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression” – or what most of the world refers to as World War II.The big question: Was all this pageantry simply good optics for the Chinese?Or will the past week mark a major turning point in China’s hoped-for shift to a New World Order?In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver hash it all out.They also talk through how to make small talk when a fellow authoritarian leader floats the idea of immortality.

China's stock markets have been on a tear over the last few months, with the benchmark CSI 300 Index – which tracks the biggest companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen – up 25% since its low point in February.Beijing has wanted the market to rally for quite some time – but this upsurge has come as something of a surprise. China’s economic fundamentals aren’t really conducive to a market recovery: deflation isn’t getting any better, consumer confidence is still weak, the property sector has been worsening, and local governments still aren’t paying their suppliers.But Beijing is hoping that there's a real foundation to this rally – a foundation that it's responsible for building, quietly and gradually, over the past 18 months.In our latest podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the recent market rally, as well as the changing role Beijing envisions for the stock market in the economy. They also explore Beijing's:Concept of a "slow bull market"And efforts to rebuild public trust in the market, to make it a worthwhile place to invest

China's export controls on rare earth elements have exposed major US supply chain vulnerabilities. Now the US is scrambling to plug the holes – and China is working to maintain its leverage.The big question is: how far will each side go in these efforts?In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Cory Combs, Head of Critical Mineral and Supply Chain Research, take stock of China's maturing export controls, the evolving US response, and where this all leads.They break down:What China is doing to bolster its leverageWhere the US side's response is succeeding and failingWhat a stable end-state might be for global manufacturing supply chains – balancing the upsides and downsides of Chinese supplies

The quest to understand Beijing's views on consumer spending continues. The latest: On August 13, China's finance ministry (MoF) said it would bring down borrowing costs for service sector firms by providing them with rebates on their interest payments.Curiously, authorities framed the measure – which is clearly designed to increase investment – as being an effort to boost consumption.In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the idiosyncrasies of China's consumption policies.They discuss:Why Beijing sees the path toward greater consumption as reliant on more investmentWhy consumption support efforts are increasingly pivoting toward servicesAnd why China's authorities have opted to dispense rebates on interest payments, rather than just cut interest rates outright

When the Politburo met to talk about the economy at the end of July, the general tone was one of contentment. Despite the disruption of the Trump tariffs, China's economy has outperformed expectations this year, led by truly remarkable export growth.In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss the state of China's economy. The gents get into China's:Latest export miraclePersistently weak household consumptionEfforts to deal with overcapacityThen they wrap up with some thoughts about what to expect from economic policy for the rest of the year.