Ep 46 - What China really agreed to on rare earths + assessing US capability to end reliance on China

Confusion around what China has officially agreed to in terms of pausing its rare earths, and other critical mineral, export controls persists – even as we are a week out from Donald Trump and Xi Jinping’s trade agreement in South Korea.Significant discrepancies remain between official statements from the White House and China’s Ministry of Commerce on the issue.Meanwhile, officials and commercial players on both sides of the Pacific are reporting significant differences around their expectations for how quickly, and abundantly, rare earths and other critical minerals will flow from China.In this week’s Trivium China podcast, host Andrew Polk is joined by his colleague Cory Combs to lay out their latest understanding of the issue. The two discuss:The key discrepancies between US and Chinese statements on the export control pauseHow political messaging from the White House is adding to the confusion for businessesAnd whether the political will exists for both sides to fully align on the details – and to maintain the trade ceasefire for a full yearAndrew and Cory then move on to examine the growing debate in Washington around how quickly the US can fully end its reliance on China for rare earth supplies. Cory gets into:What a realistic timeline for ending reliance on China would look likeThe reasons the US found itself in this situation in the first placeBenchmarking how quickly China can build new rare earths processing facilities – as a baseline for the potential US build outThe highly technical aspects of rare earths processing that will ultimately determine success or failureIt’s another fascinating discussion from the fine folks on the Trivium team – you won’t want to miss it!Also, check out this excellent paper by Jessica DiCarlo, Cory Combs, and Raphael Deberdt that Cory mentions in the show: Fractured Extraction: Mining Firms, Provinces and Municipalities in the Decentralized Politics of China’s Rare Earth Production